Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:
• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.
The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.
In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.
Perhaps offer Latham an ambassadorship?
Kiev or Kabul would do
In order to remove the religious right wing fruitcakes of the Liberal party from anywhere near the levers of power its necessary for the whole party to lose office……if that means that slighly less loopy members lose their seats rather than the true screwballs well then so be it.
How about north korea?
Upnorth,
Looks like Qld is finally getting with the programme.
A Labor Government is now the likely outcome and Qld will not like to be a missing voice at the table of power.
In Paddington, just door knocked by Allegra Spender worker.. very buoyant .. he said very optimistic.. except for Bellevue Hill.
Looking at 2019 booth votes I can’t see that Dave has a snowflakes hope in hell.. he was toast last early year let alone now. In fact he never had a chance sitting on 51.3% o/a
Edit
Mind, Allegra would be more of a “Liberal” than Dave & would support a Lib minority government (which is why she would get the Lib end of Wentworth) but will happily sit on the Independent fence with a Labor gov until the inevitable Liberal blood letting is finished.. 10 years or so from now.
MacKellar poll Falinski seems in strife – thoughts on Mackellar? How’s UComms track record on individual seats?
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:22 pm
Upnorth,
Looks like Qld is finally getting with the programme.
A Labor Government is now the likely outcome and Qld will not like to be a missing voice at the table of power.
中华人民共和国
Yes GG but it will be patchy. Brisbane and non resource seats like Leichhardt will swing stronger to Labor. I think the long campaign was a mistake by the Tories.
But I thought scomo was a “master campaigner” – I get the feeling people may have already made their mind up.
Scomo is a known quantity this time around and I’m not sure if people are buying.
Was the lnp so far behind they thought they needed 6 weeks to make up the difference – but in the end it may cost them votes instead?
Upnorth,
Yeah 42 days of Morrison saying I’m a bastard but vote for me anyway was not a strategy that was ever going to fly.
I reckon there is more going on in the regions than is being reported.
Many pollsters ask if we are heading in the right direction. I would say yes, we are about to get rid of the Morrison Government.
Upnorth @ #322 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:46 pm
As much as I could get from the Herald Sun. Article is actually in the (un)Australian
QLD MAY NOT DELIVER PM SECOND MIRACLE
A swing away from Mr Morrison in Queensland, the state that delivered his ‘miracle’ victory three years ago, could deliver Anthony Albanese government.
Scott Morrison may not be so lucky in Queensand, according to the latest polling. Picture: Jason Edwards
Scott Morrison may not be so lucky in Queensand, according to the latest polling. Picture: Jason Edwards
Labor and Coalition strategists say polling indicated support falling away from the Morrison government in the Sunshine State, where it has 23 of Queensland’s 30 federal seats.
The numbers show as many as four seats could swing from blue to red after the May 21 election.
The Liberal-held seat of Brisbane is the most vulnerable, aided by growing support for the Greens.
This has also put the blue-ribbon electorate of Ryan in danger.
Both sides concede that the Cairns-based seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal MP Warren Entsch, is “in play” along with the outer Brisbane seat of Longman, which has changed hands four times in the past two decades.
Preferences from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party could prove critical to the Coalition holding Longman and the targeted central Queensland seat of Flynn.
Woke-pc-thug says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:31 pm
But I thought scomo was a “master campaigner” – I get the feeling people may have already made their mind up.
Scomo is a known quantity this time around and I’m not sure if people are buying.
中华人民共和国
Don’t underestimate the scare campaign Bob Brown and his idiot convoy did in Regional Queensland.
But yes Scomo is a know quantity. Fear vs Hope.
What the hell was bob brown thinking?
Thanks BK
https://johnmenadue.com/who-is-the-autocrat/
Remember when you were in school and the teacher asked a question and you knew the answer and you put your hand up so far you nearly dislocated your shoulder, thinking ‘I know the answer! I know the answer!’…?
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:34 pm
Upnorth,
Yeah 42 days of Morrison saying I’m a bastard but vote for me anyway was not a strategy that was ever going to fly.
I reckon there is more going on in the regions than is being reported.
中华人民共和国
The regions are much harder to gauge than the Capitals.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:34 pm
Upnorth,
Yeah 42 days of Morrison saying I’m a bastard but vote for me anyway was not a strategy that was ever going to fly.
I reckon there is more going on in the regions than is being reported.
中华人民共和国
The regions are much harder to gauge than the Capitals.
The old adage when a swing is on, it is on everywhere might be apt.
If there is a national wide 5.5% swing as suggested by the polls, why would anyone think that Qld would be any different? Yes, the seat gains might not be as large but nevertheless the swing would be on.
Another thing at play (together with everything else) is the Coalition is going for a fourth term. Sometimes people decide, it is time to give the others a go (provided they aren’t producing radical policies, which the ALP aren’t).
Morrison should have gone late November. Major blunder.
Shorten and the ALP lost the 2019 election.
Morrison and Libs have lost this one.
The “Scomo is a master campaigner” stuff sounds like US 2016 trauma.
Trump is genuinely a master campaigner and it has almost nothing to do with his right-populism or pathological narcissism. Sharing those qualities isn’t enough except in helping you be okay with shanking anyone who gets in your way.
Just on this ScoMo being the “master campaigner”.
If he gets absolutely slaughtered does this tag get sent to the rubbish bin. A master campaigner wouldn’t get slaughtered in an election.
There’s two weeks to go still and Morrison is going full exasperated breathless attack on Albanese. Generally that’s the strategy in the final week.
He’s got nothin’ left.
I like the idea of an ambassadors role for Latham it would hopefully be to Mars.
Upnorth,
In SA, the anti-Lib swing grew bigger the further you got away from Adelaide.
I’ve read reports about Nat candidates channelling Party funds to their campaigns at the expense of more marginal comrades.
Lots of strange goings on in Groom.
The Morrison response to the floods!
There i alot going on and the media cheer squad are getting more desperate by the day – a full on puff piece on SfM and his ‘family values’ oh FFS, no wonder the LNP can chuck money at discrediting the teals if they those free kicks from Murdor, of course they can just as easily turn into own goals.
I wonder where this 27% of voters undecided line has come from, obviously to make the contest more gripping, but Ipsos and other point to around 7% undecided, and funny enough with a lib primary of say 35 and labor, say 37, the remainder is 27 so anyone not LNP/ALP is undecided – pretty much Herald-Sun logic.
Also have been pondering the massive spend to save the Clown from Kooyong, lotsa mailouts, favourable front pages, signage galore so big expense.
Is this:
a) Something special about Kooyong, the jewel in the lib crown
b)Something special about Frodo, the only one left standing for leader
c)Noting special and all the other teal challenged seats ate getting the same resources.
You do wonder how much are they willing to let go if all the focus is so much on Kooyong and those resources could save other seats. Would be kinda poetic justice to say, save Kooyong but then lose say, Casey, Aston, Menzies, Dunkley, Goldstein
Socrates:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 2:50 pm
Well, that was kept under wraps; at least I can’t recall it. I do recall an incident in the ’80s, where an Oberon-class boat (HMAS Otama?) dived while two submariners were still in the fin, both drowning. While serving in HMAS Platypus in the early ’80s, I found that submariners were a very tight unit indeed.
Morrison deserved the master campaigner tag for 2019 where it was his strategy, contrary to conventional wisdom and a mile away from Turnbull’s strategy, won an unexpected victory.
What he’s showing this time is his act has a limited shelf life.
Mars has basically no atmosphere worth a damn. No magnetic field so it’s bombarded by deadly cosmic rays. It’s minutes 60 degrees and the low gravity means your muscles and bones atrophy.
Haven’t the Martians suffered enough Prince Planet?
The act wherein one politician continually derides another has worn very thin over the years. Basically, voters despise it. It repels them nearly all the time. So in using defamatory attacks on Albo, Morrison will be campaigning against himself. Albo will be little harmed by them. Morrison will driving voting intention against his candidates.
Morrison has nothing to run with. No record. No vision or policies for the further. He’s offering things that voters really dislike: vilification and bribes.
He’s stuffed.
“27% of voters undecided”
So are you technically undecided if you don’t know which of Teal/ALP/Greens you most want to beat the Libs?
The world is a strange place, a guy who has just about every media owner and the journos employed by them on his side and proceeds from photo ops at one LNP friendly business premises to the next with no scrutiny whatsoever and is allowed to get away with any old blarney that enters his head and if he makes a mistake the media makes sure it is forgotten straight away, is this really a master campaigner? Far out!!!!
27% “undecided” voters (declares Murdoch)?
I can wear “27% not choosing a major party”.
Has the Murdochracy just decided anyone not committed to the two majors is “undecided” or is there some actual research gauging the strength of commitment people have to a major (e.g. 35% support LNP but only 25% of those rusted-on, plus numbers of similar magnitude for Labor etc)?
Anyone know whether the 27 is just made up?
100 – 38 (alp) – 35 (lnp) = 27?
Morrison having a crack at Albanese for hiding when he had COVID. It’s not even subtle anymore.
Prince planet
The Media has reviewed itself and found that it is a master campaigner.
If Groom falls I’ll be doing a ceili into town
I noted that in the supplement in the C-M today (posted by Sprocket__), Morrison wasn’t flashing in a wedding ring. He may’ve checked the stats?
So scomo’s opponent (who appears to have no chance) is having his signs etc damaged.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:53 pm
Upnorth,
In SA, the anti-Lib swing grew bigger the further you got away from Adelaide.
I’ve read reports about Nat candidates channelling Party funds to their campaigns at the expense of more marginal comrades.
Lots of strange goings on in Groom.
The Morrison response to the floods!
中华人民共和国
Yes. Strange Joyce is in Townsville and Morrison the other week plus regional seats. Let’s see how things pan out.
Frydenberg has always spent big on his seat even under less threat. It works against him here, where his margin already incorporates whatever benefits saturation signage delivers. I assume as Treasurer he has the pull to divert party resources to his own nest. I can also tell that the level of spending has ramped up drastically over what always already seemed very high to me even compared to my experience in marginals. It must sap resources from elsewhere.
“Keep Josh” is not the slogan of a front runner. You only approve that when you’re shitscared and know you’re out and pleading to change minds back.
Prince planet says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 3:50 pm
“I like the idea of an ambassadors role for Latham it would hopefully be to Mars.”
No. Mars is too close and if it has indigenous life, that might be contaminated.
So – either the sunny side of Mercury or the Kuiper Belt.
how about firing latham with elon musk/other billionaires in a d*ck shaped rocket into the sun?
Perhaps Latham could be deposited in Uranus?
Thoughts on Mackellar poll?
Yeah surely all the money being diverted to normally safe seats like Kooyong, Goldstein, Mackeller etc hurts the liberals’ resources in the wider election
So now the press are trying to “gotcha” albo with 11 year old tweets a candidate sent…
Who can remember what they did 11 years ago?
Views can change over 11 years.
If historical tweets matter, why doesn’t historical corruption and rape allegations?
Murdoch has gone hyper partisan this time not every pretending to hide it. I guess the 27% invented by them is to give the marketing man a ‘fighting chance’. Little wonder SfM campaign is all 2min pressers in green grocers, hair washing and feature articles with Jen and the girls. Anyway SfM is just fighting the last war or even the 2013 one with the same strategy – not a sure success.
Is it just me or has the media been extra partisan this time, never really noticed this bad before – if by chance there there is a second miracle, will we get the headline in the HS, “It was the Sun wot won it”
And while I am on a roll, if I never have to hear about Jen and the girls and the family crap the next 2 weeks can’t come soon enough – Mr Empathy Coach, pushing this in everyones face, doesnt give a shit about people of dont have families, or cant have, or dont choose to or have non-traditional ones.
Unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainians have hit another Russian warship, this time one of their latest “stealth” frigates, the Admiral Makarov, in the Black Sea with a Neptune missile. How embarrassing.
Whilst unconfirmed by USA and Ukraine, OSInt analysts online are already pointing out how Russian rescue vessels and a US recon drone are clustering around the suggested location.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-warship-on-fire-after-reported-ukrainian-attack/
In many ways this is worse than the Moskva. This is one of the Russians latest ships, launched in 2017. It absolutely should have been able to defend itself against a single incoming SSM. If true as reported, Russian naval systems are rubbish.
@Xenu says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 4:13 pm
Yeah surely all the money being diverted to normally safe seats like Kooyong, Goldstein, Mackeller etc hurts the liberals’ resources in the wider election
______________
Guess it show how shit scared they are of the independents gaining any of their prize possessions – Media watch was v interesting this week and had a few grabs from some lib and that awful Cretin woman from say saying WTTE that seats like kooyong were ‘rightfully’ liberal. No call me a bit thick but wouldn’t language like that and the degree of entitlement only bolster the teal campaigns.
Woke-pc-thug says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 4:07 pm
how about firing latham with elon musk/other billionaires in a d*ck shaped rocket into the sun?
————————
Would have to be with Bezos, he had the rocked based on Dr Evil’s in the Austin Powers movies
“Is it just me or has the media been extra partisan this time, never really noticed this bad before”
I can only speak from glancing idly at the Herald Sun while getting take away, but it seems far far worse this time around.
There were a lot of print closures and layoffs at the beginning of Covid, I think that and cratering TV viewership is making them lean into the politics of their actual dedicated viewer base. You don’t need the pretense of neutrality if you’ve lost a nominally neutral audience.
@Lars: Maranoa and Groom being in play isn’t totally outside the realm of imagination. They could fall to One Nation, or KAP if it ran.
Of course the Coalition would be wasting resources sandbagging. An LNP minority government propped up by PHON wouldn’t be much different from a LNP majority government on its own.