Boothby and ACT Senate polls

Labor looking good in Boothby, a promising result for ACT Senate independent David Pocock, and a quick look at today’s upper house elections in Tasmania.

Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:

The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.

The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.

In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

677 comments on “Boothby and ACT Senate polls”

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  1. “These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock …”

    Maybe Penny can appoint him Ambassador to the Solomon Islands?

  2. In Labor’s case, if it can get to 74, it expects the support of the Greens’ Adam Bandt and Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie to guarantee confidence. But if either major party can’t get to 74 to start with, the teals are suddenly crucial. That’d be time for Plan C.

    Usually known as a “hung parliament”, Steggall prefers to call it a “parliament of balance”. The teals could end up as the pivot point in deciding the balance. The teals share the same three top priorities as matters of urgency: action on climate change; the creation of a federal anti-corruption agency; justice and respect for women. Those imperatives align more closely with Labor than the Coalition.

    Morrison has put himself in an extraordinary position. By bad-mouthing the idea of a meaningful integrity agency as a “kangaroo court” and a “public autocracy”, he is seen to be opposed to integrity and, by implication, tolerant of corruption. By refusing to revise Abbott’s 2030 emissions targets, he’s seen to be anti-science. And by his mishandling of demands for justice and respect, he’s seen to be disrespectful of women.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-morrison-turns-the-blue-heartland-teal-20220505-p5aiyz.html

    If this situation does eventuate, I can’t see how Morrison can remain as leader. The teals are not going to support the Liberals while they’ve been boxed into the anti-science, anti-integrity, anti-women corner by SfM.

  3. Oliver Sutton @ #1 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:37 am

    “These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock …”

    Maybe Penny can appoint him Ambassador to the Solomon Islands?

    God no! He’s as useless as tits on a bull and would probably encourage war between Australia and China just to get back at Labor for having the audacity to beat him in the ACT! 😯

  4. Internal party polling, so I guess take it with a grain of salt. Karen Middleton also reports that internal polling shows the Libs losing Ryan, Casey, Reid, Pearce and Swan.

    The federal Coalition’s path to victory appears to be narrowing, with some Liberals now conceding they see no way to win majority government on current internal polling.

    There is also heightened concern around Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s prospects of retaining the once-blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong against independent challenger Dr Monique Ryan. The Saturday Paper understands that Liberal polling shows Frydenberg’s primary vote currently tracking at 42 per cent. This is about 2 per cent lower than it needs to be to ensure he can withstand a likely preference flow in Ryan’s favour from Greens and Labor voters.

    The polling is also believed to suggest assistant minister Tim Wilson is headed for defeat at the hands of another independent – former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel – in the Melbourne bayside seat of Goldstein, with Wilson currently recording a primary vote of just 37 per cent.

    These are just two of a slew of races where Liberals in previously safe city-based electorates face serious threat from “teal” independents, who are receiving funding support from the Climate 200 organisation established by businessman Simon Holmes à Court. Four contests are particularly tight, with North Sydney and Wentworth adding to the Liberals’ challenges in Kooyong and Goldstein. In a fifth, Rob Priestly – who is not a teal candidate but endorsed by former independent MP Cathy McGowan and her “Voices of” movement – is now believed to be a strong chance of taking the Shepparton-based regional Victorian seat of Nicholls from the Nationals.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/07/liberal-polling-predicts-losses-josh-frydenberg-and-tim-wilson#mtr

  5. This is an interesting article tracking the marginal seat contests where the pork barrel has been rolled out and compatring it with the seat next to it where there is none!


    A tale of two electorates: the marginal seats basking in election funding promises while neighbours ignored

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2022/may/07/a-tale-of-two-electorates-the-marginal-seats-basking-in-election-funding-promises-while-neighbours-ignored

    Interesting to note that the Coalition think they’ve got a shot at taking Mayo.

  6. Yes, C@t.

    So technically not Libs, but still. It counts as a loss for them if the Voices candidate can get elected.

  7. Insiders 9:01 AM – 10:29 AM – Sunday 8th May

    David Speers joins Andrew Probyn, Gabrielle Chan and Waleed Aly to discuss the RBA raising interest rates during the election campaign to fight soaring inflation, national security, a federal ICAC and the teal independents.

    Guests : Campaign Special – Tanya Plibersek And Allegra Spender

  8. It might be worth tuning into Insiders to listen to Allegra Spender. You don’t see or hear much of her in the msm.

  9. Richard Denniss being cheeky in The Saturday Paper:

    Richard Denniss: ‘A few election cycles from now, it will be almost impossible for the Coalition to win’

    Here is one truth about this election: the Liberal Party is risking its future on a prime minister who likely doesn’t have one. After years of neglect, it should come as no surprise that many Liberal voters would be looking for an alternative. What is a surprise is that the Liberal Party machine, as distinct from the prime minister’s office, would risk seats such as Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth in order to save a prime minister who is behind in all of the published polls.

    How did it come to pass that Josh Frydenberg, the Liberal’s heir apparent, is in danger of losing Robert Menzies’ former seat to an independent who just six months ago was working as a doctor at the Royal Children’s Hospital? As is often the case in recent history, the answer goes back to Tony Abbott.

    Abbott came to power raging against a market-based mechanism to combat climate change, against the Rudd government’s stimulus spending during the global financial crisis, and against same-sex marriage. All that is left of his “legacy” is the Liberals’ ongoing hostility to climate action and their surrender to the hard right of the National Party.

    For decades the Nationals have parlayed their 4 per cent of the primary vote into disproportionate helpings of political power and pork-barrel projects for their electorates. But while the Liberals have always been happy to use public money to buy the support of their country partners, since Tony Abbott began to sound more like Barnaby Joyce than Malcolm Fraser, the Liberals have been in trouble in their blue-ribbon seats.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/05/07/why-the-days-safe-liberal-seats-are-almost-over/165184560013840

  10. Bluepill,

    I’m not an ALP member either but each of those questions you asked are not important in the lives of Australians at the moment.

    Cost of living pressures are the most important to Australians at the moment and unfortunately for you, you and your Coalition mates don’t have any answers to those problems.

  11. Oliver Sutton
    “ Maybe Penny can appoint him Ambassador to the Solomon Islands?”

    I’d prefer to see Zed appointed as ambassador to Afghanistan or Syria. It would give him an opportunity to develop a greater appreciation of democracy.

  12. Interesting Casey is mentioned as a seat where the Liberals are in trouble, neither Morrison or Albo have been there during the campaign so far

  13. In the previous thread, mj suggested we are more divided then ever. The best interpretation is the opposite. The range of seats and voters that are out there looking at different options is higher than ever and most of the beneficiaries are splitting the difference – whether that’s a form of coherent centrism like the Teals or some kind of pick-and-mix combination like Palmer pretends to offer. There’s a lot of live issues, but there’s no division. Australia has been slowly going through a depolarisation, and we’re near a threshold beyond which who knows what will happen. (But I am optimistic that it will serve Australians’ interest no matter what happens in partisan terms.)

  14. The federal Coalition’s path to victory appears to be narrowing, with some Liberals now conceding they see no way to win majority government on current internal polling.

    There is also heightened concern around Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s prospects of retaining the once-blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong against independent challenger Dr Monique Ryan. The Saturday Paper understands that Liberal polling shows Frydenberg’s primary vote currently tracking at 42 per cent. This is about 2 per cent lower than it needs to be to ensure he can withstand a likely preference flow in Ryan’s favour from Greens and Labor voters.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/07/liberal-polling-predicts-losses-josh-frydenberg-and-tim-wilson#mtr

  15. Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
    As I check various markets with my turf accountant this lovely morning, I note the Federal election betting odds have Labor a solid favourite:
    Over $4 million in matched bets…
    Labor $1.44
    Coalition $3.15

  16. More from Richard Denniss:

    The Nationals haven’t just dragged the Liberals away from the policy issues of concern to inner-city voters, they have dragged Scott Morrison to a campaign style that places government spending and government intervention at the centre of everything he announces. Even his clumsy attempt to politicise the issue of trans athletes blew up in his face, in large part because genuine Liberals couldn’t understand why the Commonwealth government would want to push itself into the rules of sporting bodies.

    While the Nationals believe their voters are impressed when a big dam or new road is secured for their electorate, do Tim Wilson or Josh Frydenberg really think new netball courts and commuter car parks are the big challenges their voters want solved? Do they want to elect a federal MP to do the work of a local council? Do Trent Zimmerman and Dave Sharma really think voters believe the jobs of the future or the solution to cost-of-living pressures come from building dams or pre-election cash handouts?

    For 80 years treasurers of all persuasions have been knocking back boondoggles such as the $5.4 billion Hells Gate dam in north Queensland. But in the absence of any cost–benefit analysis to support the project, Frydenberg was the first to fund it. No wonder Barnaby Joyce responded this week to the suggestion that the Liberals treated the Nats like a doormat by saying “We’re the most expensive doormat you’ll ever have.”

    Using $20 billion to buy Joyce’s tepid support for a net-zero target might have got Scott Morrison through the Glasgow climate talks but it’s placed the Liberal Party in far more trouble in their once safest seats.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/13840/2hO7ZWwh

    That’s a share link if you want to read the rest of it for free. 🙂

  17. I have to say I find any suggestions the Liberals could recapture Mayo laughable. People I know in the Adelaide Hills all say Sharkie is hardworking and fair. She has a mortgage on that seat.

  18. ‘A few election cycles from now, it will be almost impossible for the Coalition to win’

    I remember when people were saying that in 2008.

  19. “… with some Liberals now conceding they see no way to win majority government on current internal polling.“

    Baghdad Freya didn’t get the memo.

  20. Interesting to see the Conservatives have lost a heap of seats in UK council elections-but primarily to the Liberal Democrats, and not so many to Labour. Is this the same kind of rebellion of moderate middle-class voters against the populism of traditional right-wing parties that we are seeing in Australia, with the rise of the teals in the affluent city heartland of the Liberals? The Liberals will need to think long and hard about how they brand themselves in future, if the teals do in fact become a significant factor in the next Federal parliament.

  21. Thanks BK. Seeing the Boothby poll, and knowing that sort of swing could get Sturt over the line, I have one suggestion for the SA Labor campaign – trams.

    The previous SA Labor government of Weatherall had proposed an extension of the tram system along The Parade, Unley, Prospect and Henley Beach Roads. This made a lot of sense transport wise and is a lot cheaper than finishing the North South corridor (which I oppose). Morrison killed it, even though ParadeLink was popular. Any chance Labor could resurrect the idea? It would fit in well with Albo’s pro-rail policy and there could even be a plan to expand production of trams in Melbourne to operate on it. Cost $700 million.

  22. Soc,
    Mayo is in play because of this:

    At the 2019 election the Liberal candidate received the most first-preference votes, but Sharkie was elected on preferences.

  23. Confessions @ #31 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:50 am

    Asha @ #26 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:45 am

    ‘A few election cycles from now, it will be almost impossible for the Coalition to win’

    I remember when people were saying that in 2008.

    Yep! And sure as little apples, as the next generation ages it too votes more conservative.

    Except they’re not. At least not in the former Blue Ribbon seats that are under threat.

    Richard Denniss again:

    At the 2019 election, Morrison shovelled just enough money into the seats he needed to win. His daggy dad schtick took the heat off the problems he couldn’t fix while the dozens of tiny projects he announced made him look as though he was really listening. It was a masterclass in political bait and switch, but a close look at the results makes clear the one group that didn’t fall for it was Liberal voters in safe Liberal seats. Abbott lost Warringah with a 9 per cent swing. Wentworth suffered the second-biggest swing of 7.9 per cent. Josh Frydenberg lost 6 per cent in Kooyong. In Higgins there was another 6 per cent swing, then 4.9 per cent in Goldstein and 4.4 per cent in North Sydney. All saw votes go to Labor, even though those electorates had the most to lose from Bill Shorten’s proposed changes to capital gains tax and franking credit refunds.

    Like a dog returning to its vomit, Morrison is campaigning in this election to be mayor of Australia. He is dodging responsibility for big national issues while pouring billions of our public dollars into his target seats. But not only do voters seem to have grown tired of his evasion, Liberal voters seem particularly unimpressed by a prime minister who thinks spending public money is the only answer to his political problems.

  24. So, 2 weeks out and what do the main Murdoch tabloids have on their front page?

    Cartoons of Albo as a zombie? A grave digger? Maybe as a thief taking money out of your wallet?

    Sadly no. Only 1 of the three has a pathetic quote from Scott ‘Trust Me’ Morrison….

    https://edition.pagesuite.com/get_image.aspx?pbid=320ddf3b-4f51-41ad-b9a8-6020bccc12fe&h=400#image.jpg

    https://edition.pagesuite.com/get_image.aspx?pbid=3b0f634e-9aa7-4e7f-97c7-54cba6c9efaa&h=400#image.jpg

    https://edition.pagesuite.com/get_image.aspx?pbid=38d72c05-d55e-479e-a6ea-985d57be1901&h=400#image.jpg

    Memo to Murdoch editors: MUST DO BETTER

  25. BKsays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:35 am
    “I’m working on a monster”

    Already exists in the Senate, holding up the positions of Attorney-General and Minister for Industrial Relations in the Morrison government.

  26. They say the trend is your friend and right now the trend is not the friend of the LNP. Even despite the hyper partisan media pack and Albos so called gaffes it seems there is no enthuiasm for the LNP at all and people are slowly moving toward a new future.

  27. Inside the Murdoch tabloids is a smarmy puff piece on Morrison the Family Man.

    Why not festoon the front page with the ‘money shot’? Like they did with Joshy?

    Are they seriously worried about circulation of the dead tree version by putting Mr Turn Off there?


  28. Kirkysays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:16 am
    Bluepill,

    I’m not an ALP member either but each of those questions you asked are not important in the lives of Australians at the moment.

    Cost of living pressures are the most important to Australians at the moment and unfortunately for you, you and your Coalition mates don’t have any answers to those problems.

    Coalition mates don’t have any answers to those problems Not
    ‘at the moment ‘ but ever based on current so called ‘plan’. 🙂

  29. OMG! How can oppose “is a lot cheaper than finishing the North South corridor (which I oppose)”.

    It’s so required; as population expands south and north, the road between Darlington and Torrens will become worse. The section without lights is a must to help flow traffic and will boost economic growth.

    The trams are also require, so it comes down to why not both?! However does State Labor have the will to push this idea cause I couldn’t name a Labor transport policy from the election just had.

    The seat of Grey is the one to watch for me. If that does fall, than the Libs are left with 1 seat in SA, if Sturt doesn’t.

  30. A final note on the Murdoch tabloid front pages, where is the Palmer yellow banner at the bottom?

    If you can’t even rely on the Fat Man to message against Labor, what hope have you got?


  31. Evansays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:23 am
    Interesting Casey is mentioned as a seat where the Liberals are in trouble, neither Morrison or Albo have been there during the campaign so far

    So are you implying that don’t believe the ‘internal polling’ crap whether it is published in The Saturday Paper or in Murdoch rags?


  32. Felix the Cassowarysays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:27 am
    In the previous thread, mj suggested we are more divided then ever. The best interpretation is the opposite. The range of seats and voters that are out there looking at different options is higher than ever and most of the beneficiaries are splitting the difference – whether that’s a form of coherent centrism like the Teals or some kind of pick-and-mix combination like Palmer pretends to offer. There’s a lot of live issues, but there’s no division. Australia has been slowly going through a depolarisation, and we’re near a threshold beyond which who knows what will happen. (But I am optimistic that it will serve Australians’ interest no matter what happens in partisan terms.)

    The right word is we are more ‘splintered’ than ever. About 30% people no longer believe any of the major parties. The major parties are saved by ‘Preferential’ voting system.
    Can someone be able to tell how many each major party wins if it is FPPS.

  33. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:50 am
    Soc,
    Mayo is in play because of this:

    At the 2019 election the Liberal candidate received the most first-preference votes, but Sharkie was elected on preferences.


    That is dreamland stuff from the Liberals. Sure, the Libs PV was 2 points better but the combined Labor and Greens preferences handed Sharkie a 22% boost in that election and I see no reason why the Greens or Labor would shift their preferences this time. Sharkie will hold Mayo for as long she wants it IMHO.

  34. The Boothby poll is a positive and reflects the vibe on the ground. If the Libs are losing Boothby 55-45 then the government is done. Just a question of the margin.

  35. No policies are perfect, few political stances aren’t inherently hypocritical, no political party is consistent.

    That’s because life is complicated and messy, there are no simple answers (particularly to complex problems) and there are multiple ways of responding to any particular issue at any particular stage in time (and at another stage in time, there’ll be different multiple ways to respond to the same problem). And every solution creates it’s own problems.

    And human beings are messed up creatures who don’t always grasp complexity. They don’t want to. They like simple answers.

    If we had a political party which was 100% consistent in its approach, with nice simple answers to everything and predetermined responses to any conceivable situation, it would be inhuman (and whilst I was typing that, I realised there once was such a party and…….)

  36. Katharine Murphy Political editor
    @murpharoo
    Sat 7 May 2022 06.00 AEST

    ‘I am who I am’: Anthony Albanese rushes towards his date with destiny…

    Albanese says Tony Abbott’s style of opposition leadership – reductionist, brutal, hyper partisan – changed Australian politics fundamentally, and not for the better. “You have to treat the Australian people with respect,” he says. “You have to give them more than a slogan and spin. I think that’s an investment in national cohesion.”

    But what if it’s not possible to win that way? He shrugs. “I am who I am. I’ve led Labor in a way in which I’d want to lead government … One of the problems of this government and the reason for this failure this term is they went through an election [in 2019] bagging us and not having any coherent policy agenda. That’s reflected in a government that is incoherent and idling. There is no reason [for this government] to exist other than Scott Morrison being able to occupy a position. That’s not my objective. My objective is to leave a legacy, to make a difference, otherwise I don’t know why anyone would do this.”

    Is the fat lady clearing her throat?

  37. The Resolve Strategic results are quite in tune with my general perception of where this federal election is going and will end up:
    1) Significant loss of primary vote for the Coalition nationally, with voters shifting to ALP, Greens and (you know which) Independents.
    2) NSW was supposed to be Scomo’s saviour (his home state, after all), but it’s looking more and more like Scomo’s “killing ground”.
    3) Victoria remains a solid Progressive state if you factor in ALP+Greens+Teals… and remember how Victoria has been the target of a shameless propaganda campaign against Dan Andrews and his team since the pandemic started!… So many millions spent by the Libs and their mates… such an insignificant result….
    4) And then there is Queensland. Here it looks like that we may be heading to a 50%/50% 2PP, which would be a very significant positive result for the ALP…. equivalent to 2007….. enough said.

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