Boothby and ACT Senate polls

Labor looking good in Boothby, a promising result for ACT Senate independent David Pocock, and a quick look at today’s upper house elections in Tasmania.

Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:

The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.

The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.

In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

677 comments on “Boothby and ACT Senate polls”

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  1. From Karen Middleton’s piece –

    The Liberals’ re-election prospects are also undermined by unhappiness among one particular constituent group: Chinese Australians.

    Their anger at the Coalition government’s anti-China rhetoric has seen traditionally strong Liberal support across that small-business-heavy community plunge in recent months.

    Sources in both major parties report that Scott Morrison’s description of deputy Labor leader Richard Marles as “the Manchurian candidate” and persistent critical references to “the Chinese”, rather than the government of China, have had a severe impact.

    The frustrations of Chinese Australians were raised during a televised Sky News debate between Frydenberg and Ryan on Thursday. Ryan said 11 per cent of Kooyong’s voters belong to this community, and concerns had been raised with her.

    “The relationship with our biggest trade partner should be treated with respect and sensitivity, not with macho breast-beating belligerence,” Ryan said. “We’ve seen how much that has cost us and it’s been actively unhelpful to weaponise our relationship with China for really local domestic political aims.”

    Frydenberg praised the Chinese–Australian community and acknowledged their concerns. “But they also understand the government’s issue is not with the Australian–Chinese community,” he responded. “The government’s issue is with China’s more assertive behaviour … Our focus as a government is in ensuring that the national interest is protected.”

    Frydenberg said he made “no apology” for the government pushing back against China. “We have serious issues and we can’t put our heads in the sand.”

    While some Liberals insist dedicated campaign work in the seats with a high Chinese–Australian population has improved the situation in recent weeks, they remain concerned.

  2. zoomster says:

    If we had a political party which was 100% consistent in its approach, with nice simple answers to everything and predetermined responses to any conceivable situation, it would be inhuman (and whilst I was typing that, I realised there once was such a party and…….)
    Yes it didn’t end well for the Nazis.

  3. A bit embarrassing last nigh, Dave Sharma waving to the returning commuters, supported by few placard waving Young Libs…. desperate times

  4. SA Voter

    (I work in transport planning). The North South Corridor has zero impact on traffic congestion in Adelaide’s north, east and south. It only affects the western suburbs. Even there, less than 10% of the traffic on NS corridor north of Regency ravels south of Cross Road. Adelaide would be better off treating the bottleneck intersections along South Road for a fraction of the cost.

    NS corridor is a Hangover of the MATS plan of the 1970s which some in DIT have never let go of. It was resurrected by Rann when there were still car factories at each end. Those factories are all gone. We have already spent over $5 billion on it and where has any new industry established as a result? The Northern Connector and Port River Expressway made more sense as they connected freight to where it wanted to go.

    NS Corridor has been soaking up most of the SA capital budget for years.

  5. I just want to say one thing about UK Council elections in comparison to our Federal election because some people are trying to do that. ( I know there is a separate thread for that but I post it there it may not attract many eyeballs)
    Overall National vote of Labour party vote when compared to Tories in UK is 35-30. So after all hardships British are facing and with a scandalous federal Tory government, Tories attracted 30% and Labour attracted 35% .
    From our opinion polls it appears ALP and Australian Tories are trending the same.
    But the thing is British Labour didn’t seem to make much progress across country other than in London. And Adrian Beaumont recons that can happen here.
    Then ALP may not have a smashing victory if the trend continues to the election day.

  6. “The right word is we are more ‘splintered’ than ever. About 30% people no longer believe any of the major parties. The major parties are saved by ‘Preferential’ voting system.
    Can someone be able to tell how many each major party wins if it is FPPS.”…

    In a FPPS most seats would likely remain in the pockets of the so-called “duopoly” but with a massive difference: The Libs may remain in power forever, given the significant split in the Progressive electorate between ALP and Greens.

    The FPPS has kept the British Tories in power for a very long time, because the Progressive vote is split among various important parties: Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP. Hence the increasing calls to the Progressive electorate to use seat-by-seat tactical voting, which would be a de facto 2PP.

  7. Sceptic says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:19 am

    A bit embarrassing last nigh, Dave Sharma waving to the returning commuters, supported by few placard waving Young Libs…. desperate times
    The self abasement of many politicians at the altar of ambition is a remarkable sight.

  8. “Vensays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:21 am”…

    Once you factor in our 2PP vote in each electorate vs the FPTP system in the UK, you will see the substantial victory the ALP is heading to and the even more substantial loss for the Coalition, courtesy of the ALP across the board and Teal candidates in some traditional Coalition seats, especially in NSW and Victoria.

  9. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:50 am
    Asha @ #26 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:45 am

    ‘A few election cycles from now, it will be almost impossible for the Coalition to win’

    I remember when people were saying that in 2008.

    This is not 2008.

    The same thing was said about US Republicans in 2008. But look at Republicans now. I do not understand why you think ALP is the natural party of governance after what we have seen in last 26 years.

  10. My Mum’s Courier Mail arrived late today, embarrassed by its own headline.

    She’d cancel it but she doesn’t really do internet and the monopoly thus bites. She says it’s a helpful guide to what not to believe.

  11. Ven, splintered isn’t the right word either. We’re all different people voting for a bunch of representatives, that’s all. It’s more that the diversity of the community – always present – is becoming more visible again. People are choosing a representative instead of a party.

    Also, the majors aren’t saved by Preferential voting. It’s more likely to kill them, or at least one. If we had proportional voting they could hang on with minority support for a long time, as a minority party. And considering no bill can pass parliament without the support of a house elected by PR, it’s vanishingly unlikely that we would have any different outcome if both houses used PR instead of just one.

  12. Sprocket : I’ve seen ads where he is messaging heavily against Scomoe quoting Joyce and Fiervanti -Wells. This was an eye opener to me and says a lot about Scomoes chances of threading the needle this time.

  13. “Scepticsays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:19 am
    A bit embarrassing last nigh, Dave Sharma waving to the returning commuters, supported by few placard waving Young Libs…. desperate times”…

    He looks like Abbott at the 2019 Federal election campaign….. and he looks that’s going the same way….

  14. Ven @ #59 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:27 am

    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:50 am
    Asha @ #26 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:45 am

    ‘A few election cycles from now, it will be almost impossible for the Coalition to win’

    I remember when people were saying that in 2008.

    This is not 2008.

    The same thing was said about US Republicans in 2008. But look at Republicans now. I do not understand why you think ALP is the natural party of governance after what we have seen in last 26 years.

    Because that was then and this is now. Have you not seen the results from the English and Irish elections? The pendulum is swinging back in favour of Progressive parties who take things like Climate Change, Integrity and Respect, especially for Women, seriously. The only reason The Republicans have had any success at all is due to shameless gerrymandering on a national scale and abuse of the Electoral College system.

  15. ABC Saturday Extra: 31% of Indians not likely to vote Lib because of SM pandemic halt on Indian travel and curry photos make them less likely to vote but more favorable view on LNP economic management.

  16. nath @ #57 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:24 am

    Sceptic says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:19 am

    A bit embarrassing last nigh, Dave Sharma waving to the returning commuters, supported by few placard waving Young Libs…. desperate times
    The self abasement of many politicians at the altar of ambition is a remarkable sight.

    Same same Josh Frydenburg.

  17. pukka @ #66 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:34 am

    ABC Saturday Extra: 31% of Indians not likely to vote Lib because of SM pandemic halt on Indian travel and curry photos make them less likely to vote but more favorable view on LNP economic management.

    Morrison concentrates on Sri Lankan curries mainly anyway.

  18. C@tmomma @ #65 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:32 am

    The pendulum is swinging back in favour of Progressive parties who take things like Climate Change, Integrity and Respect, especially for Women, seriously.

    Indeed. Do you have a Teal candidate in your electorate, C@t? If so, I trust you will be giving them your first preference 🙂

  19. Citizen the problem with today’s SmearStralian dead tree edition – is that at a glance, you see a smiling Albo with his hands in a prayer gesture.

    There would have been many photos they could have chosen with him not smiling, looking like a dork, tongue out, worried look – so why the grudging nod to his good natured humanity and comfort with the Indian community?

  20. “Warrigal says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:27 am
    My Mum’s Courier Mail arrived late today”….

    Is the family double-immunised, at least?

  21. Warrigal at 8:27 am
    How good was the Courier Mail !
    Front page ,deadwood.

    While inside a glossy piece on ‘The Waltons’

  22. I dont think it makes too much sense to compare ‘trends’ across different countries…..Yes Australia and Britain appear to be swinging to the left, but they they have suffered long and hard under right wing incompetant Governments…….However, NZ and Canada appear to be doing the opposite as people there seem to be getting Tired of their left wing governments……Comparing anyone with the USA is just downright crazy brave……they are totally different cats altogether and dont really have a left wing party anyway, just a corporate right wing party and a lunatic far right party

  23. Cat, Sceptic

    In the recent SA state election I saw the Liberal MP for inner Adelaide (Rachel Sanderson) doing the same thing with a bunch of young, neatly dressed helpers. It didn’t save her either. It was just a distraction in peak hour driving.

    Perhaps they could have signs like:
    “Honk if you like corruption”.

  24. Asha and Ven rightly complain about comments that some party is going to become unelectable. But the Liberal party of today is quite different than the Liberal party of Howard’s day, and the Labor party of Whitlam’s day was quite different from the Labor party of Curtain’s day. Organisational continuity isn’t really that meaningful. Whether the centre-right party in 2030 is the Liberal party or the Voices of Australia party or the United Australia Party, it will be appealing to different voters in a different way.

    As for me, I’m reasonably confident that there won’t be transphobic appeals, there will be more non-British/Irish surnames and non-white faces and women in leadership. There will probably be more nation-building and less corruption. But that doesn’t mean I’ll like that side then any more than I do now.

    Anyway, I find the focus on party organisations is completely wrong and misleading. I hope independents (teal and non-teal) have great success in this election so we start to think about whether specific people are good representatives in parliament rather than whether specific parties.

  25. BeaglieBoy at 8:41 am
    In NZ rather than trend ‘right’ it’s just the so called ‘right wing’ party learned to pull its head in and moved ‘left’ when it came to the pandemic. They went bog standard ‘rw’ re pandemic early on but that saw their leaders crash and burn on the bonfire of public opinion.

  26. “porotisays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:40 am
    Warrigal at 8:27 am
    How good was the Courier Mail !
    Front page ,deadwood.”…

    Looking forward to a smashing defeat of Scomo and his Gang… and a substantial drop in the Merdoch media sales… and revenues.

    Then let’s see how Merdoch reacts…..

  27. Warrigal’s Mum is rusted-on ALP, with a backstory quite similar to Upnorth*. She loathes the LNP and its various iterations with the white heat of a thousand suns and her views on Palmer, Hanson, Christensen et al can’t be printed on a family forum.

    She finds the CM quite handy for wrapping the rubbish, a habit of a lifetime. Also it makes her more determined to cancel out the votes of her peers.

    We’re all vaxxed to the max, and the tribal elder just had her winter booster.

    on edit: Oh doG, she’s going to spew when she sees the weekend mag in that thing.

    *Upnorth, what’s the encore to the Silver Link job? Got a preference for shifting one Bradfield Highway over the other?

  28. “porotisays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:50 am
    BeaglieBoy at 8:41 am
    In NZ rather than trend ‘right’ it’s just the so called ‘right wing’ party learned to pull its head in and moved ‘left’ when it came to the pandemic. They went bog standard ‘rw’ re pandemic early on but that saw their leaders crash and burn on the bonfire of public opinion.”

    That’s correct, poroti. And Scomo and his Neoliberal gang did the same here: At one stage pretending to be Keynesian under the threat of Covid… But now they have unilaterally declared that the “Covid pandemic is over” (pity that Covid didn’t receive the memo) and are back to their beloved Neoliberalism.

  29. As a microcosm of the UK local elections, Southampton has returned to Labour control from the Cons, while Eastleigh (just north, between Soton and Winchester) has been further cemented as a Lib Dem stronghold.

    I have a mate who stood for Labour in an Eastleigh ward, and he was happy to crack 150 votes.

    I have another mate who stood for the LDs in a Soton ward, which Labour won convincingly.

    So despite the results in Hull, some regional cities are swinging back to Labour. The LDs are picking up lots of middle class votes again, after trashing their brand by going in with David Cameron.

  30. ‘$10000 Dumplings with Dan’ doesn’t have quite the negative connotation as ‘Lobster with a Mobster’. 😀

  31. poroti @ #72 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:40 am

    Warrigal at 8:27 am
    How good was the Courier Mail !
    Front page ,deadwood.

    While inside a glossy piece on ‘The Waltons’

    James Campbell’s main job in life,seems to be making SfM and Fruadenburger look like Happy families.I’m a tad surprised Speers couldn’t get Campbell back on Insiders this weekend to slouch and smirk on the couch.

  32. Dandy Murray-Honeydew Melon 😉 ,
    It’s the same here with the Teals. They are picking up the well-educated, well-off Middle Class voters.

  33. British council election primary votes are a meaningless comparison. People vote for more third parties like the British Greens than they do at general elections under FPPT (the Greens have hundreds of local councillors but only one MP in the Commons), and then you also have to recognise that the main opposition to the Tories in Scotland is the SNP not Labor.

  34. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I can say with confidence that this is the biggest Dawn Patrol ever!

    Writing about the teal tremor, Peter Hartcher says that the prime minister is such a liability in progressive Liberal seats that he’s spending his efforts scouting to win marginal Labor seats. This really is worth reading.
    In a megawhinge, Pontificating Paul Kelly writes, “Deception is the key to teal independents’ quest for power.”
    Laura Tingle makes the point that amid all the shouting in the election campaign, the caring economy is stuck in a perilous limbo land.
    The federal Coalition’s path to victory appears to be narrowing, with some Liberals now conceding they see no way to win majority government on current internal polling, writes Karen Middleton who tells us that Liberal polling is predicting losses for Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson.
    The gotcha question is all about reporters doing a star turn. It’s rudeness journalism, bemoans veteran journalist Malcolm Farr.
    In her weekly media round up, Amanda Mead writes, “It’s not hard to understand why Morrison declined to appear on Q+A – or to take part in an ABC-hosted election debate – when he can sail through the election by hand-picking partisan outlets such as Sky News and avoiding ABC hosts Leigh Sales and Patricia Karvelas.”
    The Coalition’s relationship with News Corp and its hostility towards the national broadcaster are influencing more than just the televised leaders’ debates, writes Rick Morton.
    The opposition leader rides on the reform coat tails of past Labor governments, but there is nothing in his program to tackle the scale of tasks they were willing to take on, says the editorial in the AFR.
    Richard Dennis begins this argument that the days of safe Liberal seats are almost over with, “Here is one truth about this election: the Liberal Party is risking its future on a prime minister who likely doesn’t have one. After years of neglect, it should come as no surprise that many Liberal voters would be looking for an alternative. What is a surprise is that the Liberal Party machine, as distinct from the prime minister’s office, would risk seats such as Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth in order to save a prime minister who is behind in all of the published polls.”.
    Katherine Murphy has been on the campaign trail with Albanese and she provides us with a long account of the week.
    Mattew Knott describes Morrison’s pitch as “You might not like me, but you need me”. Heady stuff!
    George Megalogenis declares that, on Scott Morrison’s watch, Australia has lost its standing on the world stage. He says Morrison has yet to develop the statesman’s filter. He is still too quick to anger in his dealing with foreign leaders. And he can’t resist the urge to issue loyalty tests to his Labor opponents at home.
    Katherine Murphy writes about the issues confronting Australia and Albanese. He gave an extensive interview to the Guardian.
    Two weeks to go, and it’s all about playing the man, writes Phil Coorey.
    See? Scott Morrison has insinuated that Anthony Albanese is using his Covid infection to excuse poor performances and suggested the Labor leader “can’t hack the campaign”. Morrison used a campaign event in Western Australia on Friday to personally target the Labor leader, brushing off suggestions his opponent’s campaigning could be impaired by his recent bout of Covid-19.
    In the campaign’s final weeks, the Greens are counting on surprising swings in key Brisbane seats writes Mike Seccombe.
    Anthony Albanese has left open the possibility of changing his cabinet lineup if he beats Scott Morrison and the Coalition on 21 May, noting the mix of senior personnel will ultimately be a decision for the caucus post-election. In a wide-ranging interview with Guardian Australia on the hustings this week, the Labor leader said all of his colleagues were worthy of their current roles, “but we are certainly not getting ahead of ourselves”.
    Michael Pascoe tells us that there is a very bad reason rates won’t be rising too high too soon. He says that for nine years, billions of dollars of government programs, grants and straight-out election stunts have been aimed at getting political results rather than the best return for the Commonwealth and for the taxpayers who will be footing the interest bill for decades on all that borrowed money splurged on political bribes.
    Nick O’Malley writes that Anthony Albanese is putting the heat back on to journalists over their gotcha questions.
    In the body of this wide-ranging contribution from John Hewson is, “Although the government claims its recent budget is a plan for future growth, it isn’t. The recent budget is simply the largest pork barrel in our history. This will do little to sustain growth and employment. There is no national productivity strategy that would ensure growth, employment and increases in real wages. The major economic challenge that no candidate is addressing, and what will also be a global challenge, is the management of stagflation – that is, slowing growth co-incident with accelerating inflation. Similarly, no one is addressing the need for budget repair, with structural deficits stretching out as far as the eye can see. This will require whoever is in government to look to raising taxes and cutting expenditure in the latter half of this decade. Of course, Morrison is still talking irresponsibly of further tax cuts.”
    Our leaders are blindly dancing on the edge of calamity sternly refusing to look at the quagmire opening below them. The blindfold that Morrison has firmly tied around his own eyes, and which Albanese has failed to pull from his, is our obsession with a long term cap on tax at 23.9% of GDP – the third lowest in the OECD just after the US and Ireland, and less than half that of Europe and Scandinavia, explains Roger Beale.
    “Malcolm Turnbull and Fred Chaney misunderstand the role that “moderate Liberals” play. I believe you can achieve more from within the tent, rather than standing outside throwing stones”, writes Katie Allen in this op-ed.
    Until now, the contest between Liberal MP Jason Falinski and former middle distance runner and local GP Dr Sophie Scamps for Sydney’s northern beaches seat of Mackellar has been dismissed as a case study in optimism over hard facts, but Anne Davies tells us something seems to be happening in Mackellar that is turning it into a contest to watch.
    Ross Gittins says that wages have been struggling to keep up with prices for all the time this government’s been in office. There are things it could have been doing to encourage higher wages, but it’s failed to do them, and this is a legitimate criticism of Morrison’s economic management.
    Neither major political party has anything resembling a plan to balance the budget, much less pay down government debt. And that’s before even discussing their collective unwillingness to reform the economy, writes Peter van Onselen.
    It may be the only campaign tactic they have left, and it’s a lie, but the media laps it up and Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg are flogging it hard. That’s the claim that the Coalition are “superior economic managers” and Labor can’t be trusted to run the economy. Alan Austin looks at International Monetary Fund data and puts the case that Labor have been far superior economic managers.
    The Age’s editorial declares that fair wage growth must be at the heart of economic recovery.
    Jess Irvine explains how inflation, interest rates and wages are linked.
    Morrison is pushing a contradiction, blaming the rate rise on forces he can’t control, such as the war in Ukraine pushing up energy prices or the supply disruptions internationally due to the pandemic, and yet saying only he can keep them lower. On the contrary, as the RBA points out, he is keeping them higher, and a major contributor to inflation is the billions of dollars thrown at the economy in the March budget, writes Paul Bongiorno.
    For almost a decade now, we have had governance unbefitting the times. When a government has governed without due regard to what is best for the nation and its people, there is only one course of action. Change it, and when you do, you change society, writes John Lord.
    The Coalition is guaranteeing essential services and lower tax. We can’t have both, explains Michael Keating.
    The community movement trying to unseat Hume MP Angus Taylor has been ordered to remove election signage by local government in a move legal experts say goes against the rights of third-party campaigners. Goulburn Mulwaree Council instructed the Vote Angus Out group to remove their signage after the office of the Liberal incumbent made a complaint.
    Global shares suffered a brutal sell-off as investors began to doubt whether leading central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia can succeed in taming inflation by raising interest rates, without causing recession, writes the AFR’s Ales Gluyas.
    Royce Millar has a long, hard look at the teals and the rise of independents.
    In looking at Morrison’s “autocracy” remark about an ICAC, David Solomon says it is a nonsensical suggestion, that deliberately, falsely, misrepresents the power any prospective national integrity commission might have, and the way the public service does, can or even might operate. But it says a lot about the unconstrained powers that the Prime Minister considers are appropriate for him and his ministers. Indeed, about the way he and his government have sometimes acted.
    With its recalcitrance on climate change, an integrity commission and women’s issues, the Liberal Party is at risk of losing many of its traditional voters, says the SMH editorial which reckons the teals are a warning to Liberals not to drift further to the right.
    The editorial in The Saturday Paper says, “By now it is obvious that people in detention are props to Scott Morrison. They are not human to him. They represent only voters’ fears.”
    Ben Smee explains how Clive Palmer’s deep pockets are building a yellow, slick road straight through One Nation’s heartland.
    Palmer’s UAP’s promise to wipe student debt is a con, explains Tom Tanuki.,16332
    Rachel Clun writes that prices for groceries will keep rising faster than wages, with inflation now predicted to be twice as high as wages growth by the end of next year.
    Federal Labor has promised to consider a crackdown on “unhealthy” products if elected, giving hope to advocates pushing for a sugar tax and putting leader Anthony Albanese at risk of a Coalition scare campaign, writes Dan Daniel. She tells us that today the Public Health Association will unveil its assessment of the three parties’ policies, grading them under a green, orange and red traffic light system.
    A key Liberal senator has renewed his call for religious freedom laws to be dealt with at the same time as protections for gay and trans students, despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s plan to deal with them separately. The move could ignite the same tensions that led five Liberal MPs to cross the floor to vote against the government in February, siding with Labor and crossbenchers to amend the government’s package of bills to protect all LGBTQ students, writes Lisa Visentin.
    A long-delayed showdown over same-sex marriage threatens to “further diminish” Australia’s second-largest church and destroy its national unity, Anglican Primate Geoff Smith has warned. Jamie Waljer tells us that the day of reckoning will come next week when bishops, priests and church elders meet at the first Anglican General Synod held in five years to thrash out a response to gay marriage.
    Angus Thompson writes that, after a number of questions on the issue being put to him, Scott Morrison says he doesn’t want the national debate over abortion rights occurring in the US to take place in Australia, saying it was an issue that could “deeply divide this country.”
    Having kids was the right decision for her, but Kate Halfpenny argues why she is firmly pro-choice.
    Anne Summers opines that the US Republicans won’t stop their relentless campaign until abortion is banned nationwide.
    In Victoria, the Opposition Leader has lashed out at colleague Bernie Finn over comments on abortion and warns the upper house MP to be a part of the Liberal team or leave the party.
    If the RBA relies on its worthless forecasts, prepare for a truly massive fall in house prices, writes Christopher Joye.
    If the polls are correct, Labor will claw back 2019’s losses and win enough seats to form government. But some seats may deliver more than one surprise, say Michael Koziol and Natassia Chrysanthos.
    Experts say hiring more paramedics and creating new beds isn’t a silver bullet to fixing deeper issue in our health systems.
    According to Ronald Mizen, Morrison will commit $20m today to get tourists back on the beers. Morrison has spent a lot of time in booze establishments during the campaign, has he not?
    Katina Curtis tells us that the rate of serious incidents at day-care centres has jumped during the pandemic while regulators did fewer quality assessments.
    Sumeyya Ilanbey writes that Daniel Andrews has reportedly been secretly questioned by anti-corruption investigators over his association with an allegedly corrupt property developer. Yesterday The Australian revealed Andrews was probed in private hearings as part of Operation Sandon, a long-running Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission investigation of alleged corruption in the City of Casey, in Melbourne’s south-east.
    The NSW government has given a controversial rail corporation, which is supposed to turn a profit by charging large fees to Sydney Trains and NSW Trains, another two-year break from paying state taxes. The details of the exemption granted to the Transport Asset Holding Entity are detailed in an Audit Office report released yesterday into the state’s transport agencies, which included a raft of recommendations. Another instance of putting out the rubbish on a Friday afternoon.
    Colin Kruger reports that the Star Casino operator has announced the resignations of its chief financial officer, chief casino officer and its chief legal and risk officer. That’s quite a clean out!
    The Labor Party’s proposal that Australia should offer to host a United Nations climate conference with the Pacific would only be welcomed if it demonstrated a clear commitment to addressing climate change, former Kiribati president Anote Tong says.
    Looking at recent weeks of the Ben Roberts-Smith trial, Harriett Alexander writes that, In a case that is so much based around the interpretation of facts, it has always been open to the court to determine whose version of reality was accurate and whose was a warped reflection.
    Nick Toscano writes that tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes’ intervention has added to significant questions about AGL’s role in the clean-energy transition and its blueprint for the future.
    The Australian Taxation Office is cracking down on an $850 million fraud being spruiked on social media that involves people inventing fake businesses to claim GST refunds. Operation Protego is probing potentially fraudulent payments made to about 40,000 Australians who have each claimed on average around $20,000. The ATO is working with banks, the Reserve Bank and an AUSTRAC-led coalition of law enforcement and financial industry players to clamp down on the scam.
    The planned split of AGL Energy that billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes is trying to foil will cost $260m upfront and $35m in extra costs per year for the demerged entities, documents from the energy giant show.
    Jordan Baker reports that alumni and parents from Anglican schools fear church guidelines saying students struggling with their gender identity should honour the maleness or femaleness of their god-given body are a further sign of the diocese imposing its social conservatism on the classrooms.
    COVID’s death toll has soared since the election was called, but nobody is talking about it, writes John Elder.
    One of Australia’s ageing Collins class submarines flooded as it was about to embark on a deep dive, sparking fears among crew it could sink during drills off the West Australian coast last year. Andrew Tillett reports that quick thinking by HMAS Sheean’s crew averted disaster, with the submarine conducting an emergency surfacing after a back-up system designed to stop water flooding into the boat initially failed to work.
    Labour leader Keir Starmer would likely become prime minister in an unstable hung parliament, if Britain’s confusing array of local and regional election results were replicated at a national poll next year or in 2024.
    Ending Roe v Wade could badly backfire on Republicans during elections this year, opines Lloyd Green.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope – spot on, as usual!

    David Rowe

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding

    Jon Kudelka

    Jim Pavlidis

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark David

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Davidson

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare

    Joe Benke

    Richard Giliberto

    Mark Knight


    From the US

  35. Felix the Cassowary

    If we had proportional voting they could hang on with minority support for a long time, as a minority party.
    Have you seen was has become of the once dominant Gaulist and Socialist Parties in France under a proportional electoral system?

    They have almost totally disappeared.

  36. This is getting out of control….

    New polling undertaken for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps has a real prospect of winning Mackellar from Liberal moderate Jason Falinski in another upset on Sydney’s northern beaches.

    The polling, undertaken by Ucomms last week after Scamps’s launch, shows Falinski’s primary vote at 32% with Scamps at 31.2%. With preference flows from Labor and the Greens, Scamps, a local GP, would surge ahead of Falinski.

    The poll found Labor had 15.5% of the vote in Mackellar while the Greens vote was 8.6%. It found that 81% of preferences would flow to Scamps.

    On a two-party preferred basis, this would see Scamps snatch the seat, 60-40. Mackellar is directly north of Warringah, the seat which independent Zali Steggall won in 2019 on a platform of action on climate change and a federal integrity commission.

    Scamps has been running on a similar platform and now has a high recognition, with four out of five Mackellar voters saying they knew she was running.

    The only good news for Falinski is that 7% of voters are still undecided. But when pressed to indicate how they are leaning, the undecided vote broke fairly evenly between Falinski and Scamps.

    The Ucomms poll of 834 residents of Mackellar was undertaken using automated voice polling last Wednesday on behalf of Scamps and Climate 200.

    Guardian blog

  37. A word of caution about trying to use results obtained by one voting system to predict outcomes under a different voting system. You can’t just look at which party gets the most in a preferential election (for example) and infer that they’d have won under first past the post, because under a different system, at least some voters would vote differently.

    Same goes for things like looking at the popular vote in US presidential elections. Were the presidency to be changed to a nationwide popular vote, that would change the incentives to turn out to vote, or to vote a particular way, especially in safe states.

  38. ‘England swings like a pendulum do’:

    Johnson says results have been ‘mixed’ for Tories, but that in some places they’ve had ‘remarkable gains’
    Boris Johnson has recorded a clip for broadcasters about the results. He started by paying tribute to Conservative councillors, and said the result were “mixed”.

    In some parts of the country it had been “tough”, he said.

    But in other areas there were “quite remarkable gains in places that have not voted Conservative for a long time, if ever”.

    He said that the message he drew from the results was that people want him to get on with “the big issues that matter to them”.

    It is mid-term. It’s certainly a mixed set of results.

    Boris Johnson’s leadership is facing fresh peril after senior Conservatives blamed him for losing swaths of the party’s southern heartlands to the Liberal Democrats and flagship London boroughs to Labour.

    In a punishing set of local elections for the Tories, the party lost about 400 council seats, ceding control of Westminster and Wandsworth in London to Labour for the first time since the 1970s, and plunging to its worst position in Scotland for a decade.

    Conservative MPs and council leaders questioned Johnson’s leadership, demanding action to tackle the cost of living crisis and rebuild trust in the wake of the Partygate scandal after a damaging series of losses across the “blue wall” in Somerset, Kent, Oxfordshire and Surrey.

    However, the scale of the Tory backlash was tempered by a mixed picture for Labour, which showed progress, but not enough yet to suggest a landslide for Keir Starmer in a general election. A BBC projection for a general election based on Friday’s results put Labour on 291 seats, the Conservatives on 253, the Lib Dems on 31 and others on 75.

    Labour had a very strong result in London and took some southern councils such as Worthing, Crawley and Southampton, gaining about 250 seats in total. It pushed the Tories out of control in their only council in Wales, Monmouthshire, and took over as the party with the second largest vote share in Scotland, where the SNP remained dominant.

    But in the north of England and the Midlands, Labour struggled to make gains in “red wall” areas it had lost at or since the 2019 election, despite a convincing win on the new Cumberland council.

    Conservative HQ was also buoyed by the news that Starmer is now being investigated over allegations of Covid rule-breaking at a Durham campaign event, muddying the waters over Johnson’s own fine for a lockdown gathering.

    Starmer said the results were a “big turning point” for his party. “From the depths of 2019, that general election, winning in the north, Cumberland, Southampton. We’ve changed Labour and now we’re seeing the results of that.”

    tl:dr Blue Wall crumbling in the S and SE. New Blue Wall in the N holding.

  39. Going to help out the Unions this morning for a couple of hours. They’re essential to a society that cares about all its citizens equally. 🙂

  40. Morning all
    Thanks to all this morning’s contributors.
    Overall, in my reading, a positive outlook for Labor two weeks out.
    Realistically, the Coalition has only this week to create a drastic turnaround, and with prepolling beginning next week, the task is even harder.
    The attacks on Albo, with all the “gotcha”questions, appears to be wilting. Endless porkbarreling by Morrison doesn’t seem to be effective. His past history of promising much but delivering little is coming back to haunt him.
    From my circle of friends, the view is that Labor has policies, but all the Government is offering is porkbarreling, blame and a show-pony of a PM.
    I think SE Qld is going to be very interesting. Regional Qld may not show much for Labor but the SE may be a change area.
    What’s the calling here in PB re the next NewsPoll.?
    Steady as she goes for me.

  41. Arkysays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:09 am
    British council election primary votes are a meaningless comparison. People vote for more third parties like the British Greens than they do at general elections under FPPT (the Greens have hundreds of local councillors but only one MP in the Commons), and then you also have to recognise that the main opposition to the Tories in Scotland is the SNP not Labor.


    In most areas of Scotland since the rise of the SNP, the contest is between SNP and Labour, or SNP and LibDem. The Tories being in the top two parties anywhere in Scotland is a very recent thing, and looks like it may be short-lived.

  42. Asha @ #26 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:15 am

    ‘A few election cycles from now, it will be almost impossible for the Coalition to win’

    I remember when people were saying that in 2008.

    Yes, I vividly remember similar proclamations. “The next Liberal PM isn’t even in parliament yet”, “We’re going to get at least 4 terms”, “Rudd will be PM until sometime in the late 2010s and then Gillard/whoever will have their turn and hopefully buy us an extra term” and so on.

    If (and I use that word because I don’t think it’s a done deal and advise against measuring the drapes) Labor win government in a fortnight, it (being the party and its supporters) need to remember they only won the current battle, they haven’t won any future elections yet, and assuming there are freebies ahead is just a road to complacency (that includes observations such as “No first term government since WWII has lost re-election” or “Opposition Leaders who are elected immediately after their party lose government”.)

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