Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:
• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.
The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.
In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.
Even with a thumping lower house majority Labor will find it hard to govern in a senate controlled by the greens and the ONP/UAP alliance of the illiterate and gullible
brett says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:16 pm
Far out bludger.
The Greens want to win seats.
True. To do that they campaign at all times and in all places to defeat Labor. Examine their polemics. It is Labor-phobic through and through. This has consequences. They include improving the prospects of the Lying Reactionaries. Bandt is sanguine about that.
Work To Rule says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:13 pm
Any tips on getting an image to appear rather than the URL?
https://imgur.com/gallery/4AaF2lv
—
You mean like this?
When you upload to imgur, grab the share link that appears as [img]ashskdjhfskdjhf.jpg[/img] or something like that.
Copy and paste here, but delete the [img] tags. A direct link ending in .jpg is all you need.
The logic according to certain anti-Green people on here:
1. Greens are stealing votes that belong to Labor
2. If the Greens do well, it’s thanks to Labor doing well. If Labor does poorly, it’s the fault of the Greens.
3. Labor is by definition progressive, but Greens are not *really* progressive. Therefore, if the Greens campaign on being more progressive than Labor and take votes, and Labor drops by more than the Greens increase, it’s the Greens’ fault.
4. It’s okay for Labor to campaign against the Greens*, and to campaign on the promise that they won’t work with the Greens… but if the Greens dare to do the same, it’s just proof they’re not *really* progressive, and must be working for the Liberals, even if the Greens’ accusation is thatr Labor is just like Liberals.
The convoy’s message was an anti-Adani message. The Greens clearly stood against Adani, and their vote went up. The LNP stood clearly for Adani, and their vote went up. Labor tried to play both sides, and their vote went down. It seems to me, the problem was Labor came across as pro-Adani to the progressives, and as anti-Adani to the miners, etc.
* Let’s check out a few of them…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-03-17/labor-hangs-up-on-anti-green-phone-ads/368172
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-16/labor-ad-attacking-the-greens-1/10907478?nw=0
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/labor-attack-ad-the-l/video/6f33ee1deaddf457e24c71e77bc81a80
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/25/greens-blame-labor-attacks-and-preference-deals-for-disappointing-victorian-election
But hey, if the Greens dare to run anti-Labor advertising, they must be trying to help the Liberals. That’s the only possible explanation.
Of course, those same people will accuse me of being a Greens member, or some nonsense. The fact of the matter is, both sides need to get over themselves, stop attacking each other, and recognise that the ideal future is one in which Labor and Greens are the two major parties – it would be to everyone’s benefit if the far-right, which is increasingly including the Liberals (and it will get worse after this election, as the moderate wing gets decimated, all according to Morrison’s plan), lost all political power.
As a side note, I’m actually leaning back towards Labor, now (and more solidly than before), because of a Greens leaflet that accuses Labor of having sold out to coal and gas corporations alongside the Liberals – they don’t separate out Labor – and then there’s no Greens logo or anything, just a barely-readable authorisation written in a colour nearly the same as the background in a tiny font at the end. This in the same drop that saw a Labor leaflet of quotes from Griffith residents saying why they are supporting Butler.
Butler continues to run a positive campaign in Griffith, while the Greens have now sent more anti-Majors leaflets than they have pro-Greens ones. My ideals may split pretty evenly between Labor and Greens, but negative campaigning turns me off (same reason as why I got so annoyed a few nights ago – when I asked for arguments for why I should support Labor, most of what I got was anti-Greens screeds or “only Labor can…” arguments based on Greens not being dominant).
Positive campaigning and a progressive voice in Labor is worth supporting. It’s not a locked-in vote, yet, but that’s where things stand.
The greens are confused- they want both to grow their lower house seats and to rid the LNP from power.
If they were pragmatic they’d give up on one of these desires because they can’t both occur in unison.
They declare war against the ALP in inner suburban seats they fancy their chances at and at the same time try to insist they are ready and able to support a Labor government.
The greens should take their fair share of the blame for the last decade of tori rule after the way they stymied the post 2010 Gillard government. They tainted the Labor brand in the eyes of the “quiet Australians” for several electoral cycles
Jen A. I was working in Canberra for election 2019. Overheard disheartened convoy members who were on the way home from Queensland. They were a bit surprised by their reception. These people were old enough to afford to self fund their activism but clearly young enough to underestimate the coal loving black hearts of my fellow Queenslanders.
I just shook my head. I wanted to hug them for caring and trying and then also slap them for being so stupid.
I don’t believe anyone is as nefarious as bludging reckons… though Westralians. They could be different for all I know.
Interesting in Ukraine news.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russia-sees-victory-day-prize-in-conquest-of-mariupol
Apparently evidence starting to surface of the use of SwitchBlade loitering attack drones in Ukraine.
Some kind of directional warhead on the vid there.
From my previous reading on this the larger version by the same company that can take out tanks is also on its way.
Looks like someone at Nine/Fairfax is trying to convey a message with their choice of photos. Photos are together on the WA Today website.
EDIT – apologies for doubling up on the photos. I thought they were two separate images. However I can’t delete the second one.
“The last few elections have demonstrated that nation-wide uniform swings are not something the ALP has been able to pull off in any significant way”
You’ll never see that again in your lifetime from a major party, the electorate is too fragmented to move with one voice outside of something universally beyond the pale (post-Trump I don’t even think that exists in the US anymore and I have no idea if it exists in Australia anymore either).
For the enjoyment of all the Labor supporters, here, I thought I’d copy out the pro-Butler quotes in the Butler leaflet I got…
Uncle Willie (Elder): “Terri’s advocacy for me during the most recent floods in Brisbane is a great testament to her character not only as an elected representative but as a person.”
Narelle Smith: “Terri will always work hard for Griffith. She is honest, strong and steadfastly reformative, qualities we desperately need in our government.”
Mia Bowman: “I am so keen to vote for Terri. She’s so down to earth and such a strong voice for women in power.”
John McNeill: “I’m proud to support Terri’s passion for social justice and fairness for all Australians.”
Isabella Towers: “Terri cares for real action on climate change, gender equality, and integrity in parliament.”
Elliot Wykeham: “We are lucky to have such an active local member who never shies away from the job.”
Heather Abramson*: “Terri Butler is an intelligent, inspiring, hard working and incredibly decent MP. Love her and I’m proud to be a volunteer for her campaign.”
Bradley Wills: “Terri helped me with my difficult Medicare and Centrelink issues.”
Elizabeth Arndt: “Terri is generous, helpful and kind. She always has time for me. I support her because she cares about me not just as a disabled pensioner but as a person.”
Alen (Eclipse Cafe): “Terri has been a great support to me as a local small business owner. Having someone I can really rely upon as my federal member has been a relief.”
Ethan Sullivan: “I want to change the government. The current government doesn’t care about me or my future. With policies like fee-free TAFE and rewiring the nation, Terri and Labor are actually making positive plans for my future.”
Zeinab Khalil: “Terri is an inspiration, she works hard for her community and gives her all. Terri is a strong representitive in Parliament, but also a strong voice for all women in Australia.”
* Heather Abramson is clearly part of Butler’s campaign, so this quote has a little less impact than the rest, but it doesn’t detract at all from the impact of this leaflet.
Briefly I dont want to doxx u – but you did post your ID on here a while ago. You’ve obv forgotten.
https://i.imgur.com/CUN7s4r.jpeg
somethinglikethat @ #553 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:24 pm
Thanks 🙂
Think a line chart might be better
GlenO:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:25 pm
Have you considered brevity?
The Greens hope to further their own policies by doing a deal with a minority Labor college. Consider exactly what that means: it means the Greens predicate their goals on Labor losing. That is the condition-prior for them. It follows inexorably that the Greens try to prevent Labor from winning. They have two pathways for this. First, they can take seats from Labor in their own right. They try hard to do just that. The second pathway is to campaign in such ways that the Lying Reactionaries take just enough seats from Labor to prevent Labor winning. They try hard to do just that as well.
Anyone who doubts this should just examine Green polemics. They lie about Labor all the time. They are inveterately Labor-hostile.
They also run the theme that they will coerce a minority Labor assembly into adopting Green policies. This is a none-to-oblique way of campaigning for the Lying Reactionaries.
This is all done in the open. It’s not a secret. It’s very plain to read. It can hardly be accidental.
Mavis @ #561 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:39 pm
I have.
“ And Labor’s fell by 4.18%, so the net effect is that the progressive vote fell by more than 3%.”
Only if you categorise Labor as ‘progressive’, Barney.
And that’s kinda the problem.
Lars, is it really that important. Or, do you just want to be the house bully tonight?
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:36 pm
Briefly I dont want to doxx u – but you did post your ID on here a while ago. You’ve obv forgotten.
I did inadvertently post my own name once (maybe twice). But that would not identify me as an engineer, as I am not qualified as one and have never described myself as professionally qualified, least of all as an engineer. I can sure you, I am a humble worker. I eke a small living as a factory hand. I had a brother – deceased, sadly – who was an engineer. He was a champ at maths and at life. On his memory, I swear, I am no engineer and have never claimed to be one.
Hopefully this time in 2 weeks anthony is calling it for the alp.
Bludging @ #562 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:39 pm
They run anti-Labor anti-Coalition advertising, etc. Do you honestly believe there are people who see, for example, “4 reasons why Labor and the Liberals have sold out to coal and gas corporations (and fuelled the climate crisis)” – that’s the headline of the inaccurate leaflet from the Greens that I received that has me leaning towards Labor – and go “Oh, I was going to vote Labor, but this is a problem, so I’m voting for the LNP”? Or that they would see this, vote Greens first, and then send preferences to the Liberals even though the Greens’ HTV card puts Labor in position 2?
The Greens certainly want to win seats. And winning them of Labor is just as valid a target for them as winning them off the Coalition – and so it should be, they’re not part of Labor.
The problem is, you view the Greens as “stealing” votes from Labor, as though those votes are Labor’s by right.
Also note that the Greens have made *very* clear that they will not support the Coalition to form government, and will also not send voters back to the ballot box – in other words, even if Labor do not come to them with a deal of any sort, Labor will still get their vote for Supply, etc.
Meanwhile, Labor have made *very* clear that they will do no deal with the Greens. Of course, in your mind, while the Greens are usurping power, and thus even with assurances you consider them clearly working for the other side, but when Labor does it, it’s right and proper…
GlenO:
“ Butler continues to run a positive campaign in Griffith…”
Told ya days ago mate. She’s a nicer human than Max.
Glen O….why do you think that in QLD in 2019 so many past-Labor voters shifted their support from Labor to the Coalition? Why did they do that? Because they were afraid that the Greens would be able to coerce Labor into enacting Green policies. That’s why.
When the Greens campaign on their plan to extort concessions from Labor, among other effects, they drive not-a-few voters to the Reactionaries. The Greens know this. That is one of the reasons they do it.
Please people, there seems to be those on here who keep pushing the same line. Taking someone elses cues to me a few days ago, I’ll instead scroll past them.
However, I don’t like doing that because I am sure they’ve got more to say than they do, and generally people here are quite intelligent (except the Lib guys), but the constant one line pushed over and over again about how the others are bad seems like a weak strategy. Am I meant to finally give in and change by mind by the 29th post about the same anti-other side post?
I don’t understand why, out of all the strategies for persuasion that exist, the most over-the-top one repeated over and over again is chosen. Flies in the face of smart psychological messaging. We can do better as a country, rather than stay in a 1971 sales mindset.
Boinzo @ #569 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:47 pm
The fact that Chandler-Mather is going negative doesn’t make him a less nice human, it means that he’s taking a more negative approach to campaigning. Those are two very different things.
I still hold that they’re comparable in terms of what I expect they would be like as MPs. I expect both would work hard to help everyone in the electorate, etc. But when the major distinctions can’t be made, you have to go with minor ones.
Briefly,
Lars has these fixation moments. Years ago he did the same with me repeatedly calling me a lawyer regardless of how much it was denied.
My guess is it’s just a low level form of bullying by an obsessive individual.
Bludging says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Jen Author says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:02 pm
I don’t think Greens are deliberately anti-labor.
That’s not what Brown and Bandt acknowledge. They say on the record that they know their campaigns hurt Labor/increase the chances of the Reactionaries. They are cool with that.
___________________________________________________________
What are Brown and Bandt’s actual quotes in which they say this?
Lars Von Trier:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:36 pm
[‘Briefly I dont want to doxx u – but you did post your ID on here a while ago. You’ve obv forgotten.’]
That borders on ageism. Yes, though dear Briefly seems to be getting on – ’66, close to ’67 (born in ’56) – he’s entitled to express his somewhat abstract views.
outside left @ #480 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 6:45 pm
???
GlenO says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:46 pm
The problem is, you view the Greens as “stealing” votes from Labor, as though those votes are Labor’s by right.
I most certainly do not have this view. Not at all. It’s a free political system. Parties have to struggle for support. My hope is that the Reactionaries will be defeated. There is only one Party that can do that – Labor. There is only one Party in Australian national politics that has ever served the better interests of ordinary people while in power – Labor.
Everything that makes Labor’s electoral tasks more difficult serves only to keep the Reactionaries in power. That’s what I think. It’s not complicated.
Mavis, of course briefly is entitled to his viewpoint.
As someone once said subtlety is overrated.
GlenO:
“ The fact that Chandler-Mather is going negative doesn’t make him a less nice human”
True. But I didn’t say that was why he isn’t as nice as Terri. It’s just a symptom, not a cause.
Also
“Heather Abramson is clearly part of Butler’s campaign, so this quote has a little less impact than the rest, but it doesn’t detract at all from the impact of this leaflet.”
Don’t think so. Not a name I recognise. A few others are totally locals I know.
Bit disappointed I’m not quoted.
Bludging @ #570 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:51 pm
Honestly, I don’t think there’s any evidence for the claim that Labor voters switched to the Coalition because of fear that Labor would work with the Greens. Not only did Labor make the same assurances in 2019 that they’ve made this time, but it’s pretty strongly evidenced that the biggest impact was Labor’s attempt to have it both ways on Adani.
Labor wanted to be pro-Adani in the regions, and anti-Adani in the cities.
Aside from that, Labor’s own review says that the failings were “a weak strategy that could not adapt to the change in Liberal leadership, a cluttered policy agenda that looked risky and an unpopular leader”
https://alp.org.au/media/2043/alp-campaign-review-2019.pdf
The only mention of the Greens among the “findings” about why Labor losts was this one:
And when they do refer to the convoy, here’s what is said:
Note the wording: “…it had the effect of highlighting Labor’s ambiguous position on the Adani proposal and enabled the Coalition repeatedly to reaffirm its unequivocal support for the mine”
Nowhere in the entire report does it say a thing about people being scared that the Greens would “extort” (which is an emotive choice of word for standard business in parliament) concessions from Labor.
So get off your high-horse, stop making nonsense claims about the Greens being the ones to blame, and recognise that the Greens aren’t the ones to blame for it.
Or do you want to claim that you better understand why Labor lost than Labor’s own experts?
It’s amusing when people try to reason with Briefly.
He is right in many respects. Of course, the repetition is what people really complain of.
Lack of originality is a heinous crime. You’ve got to bring new material to the place surely.
That’s why my anti-shorten campaign was so memorable for everyone. I was constantly innovating.
Boinzo @ #579 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:57 pm
I still haven’t heard any reason to think he’s not as nice as Terri.
And the quote for Abramson literally says “I’m proud to be a volunteer for her campaign”. Volunteers are part of the campaign. I’m not saying she’s a paid operative or something, just that she’s probably going to be wearing a Labor shirt and handing out HTV cards on the day – which makes her part of the campaign.
Lars Von Trier :
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:57 pm
[‘Mavis, of course briefly is entitled to his viewpoint.
As someone once said subtlety is overrated.’]
It could’ve been Wilde.
It’s true nath, the screenplay has to stay fresh – some of our characters would do well to heed that lesson.
nath @ #584 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 9:02 pm
😆 😆 😆
Stephen Fry. Named as the next president of Marylebone Cricket Club.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:51 pm
Briefly,
Lars has these fixation moments. Years ago he did the same with me repeatedly calling me a lawyer regardless of how much it was denied.
My guess is it’s just a low level form of bullying by an obsessive individual.
I think attention-seeking conduct from Lying Reactionary Troll….
I was at our Robertson pre the voting beginning training session tonight for all our pre poll and polling day volunteers. The room was absolutely packed! I spoke to one lady who had only moved up here a couple of months ago but she joined the campaign just so she could contribute to getting rid of Morrison. 😀
Briefly,
That’s a given.
But, there is a deeper/ darker aspect to his obsessions.
GlenO:
Yeah I guess. Heather handing out or letterboxing totally mens her opinion should be ignored or discounted.
I suggested the other day you takes steps to meet these people so you can judge for yourself. You seem to want other people to convince you or provide evidence at your standard. I just reckon go say hi. Both of em are everywhere visible right now. I’m sure they’ll be up for a chat and that will firm up your decision.
Having said that – I really like your level of engagement. It’s to be commended. But not your apparent lack of humour. It makes you feel suspiciously like a Greens campaign guy trying to road test messages. Probs not the case. Anyway. I like your posts. Thanks.
I would rather have Lars von Liberal obsessively call me a lawyer or an engineer than his personal project as far as I was concerned. I was a lush who enjoyed anal sex, apparently. Neither of which thing was true. Both lies. Both created out of whole sleazy cloth.
Yes, what is this thing where, if you are a volunteer for the Labor Party, which you have of your own free will decided to do, your opinion immediately becomes worthless?
Sometimes I have to bite my lip and laugh at what I can’t post.
Govt Minister Sussan Ley was asked about how govt would handle RDA if re-elected: “I’m not focused on what happens after the election I am focused on…what happens in the next two weeks….right now we’re not painting a picture of what we might do in govt after the election
The LNP has no plan – they want to cling to power so they won’t face a ficac
nath:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:02 pm
[‘Lack of originality is a heinous crime. You’ve got to bring new material to the place surely.’]
You surely do. That I think is why dear WB’s taking a stance.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:12 pm
Briefly,
That’s a given.
But, there is a deeper/ darker aspect to his obsessions.
No doubt.
Its on Labor that Julia Gillard sat down and signed an agreement with the Greens in the full glare of the national press.
Its on Labor that they are unable to sell themselves as the centrists they are between the Conservatives and the Greens.
Blaming the Greens for being a political party and doing what political parties do is pathetic and betrays a certain impotence.