Boothby and ACT Senate polls

Labor looking good in Boothby, a promising result for ACT Senate independent David Pocock, and a quick look at today’s upper house elections in Tasmania.

Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:

• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.

The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.

In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

677 comments on “Boothby and ACT Senate polls”

Comments Page 13 of 14
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  2. [Lars Von Triersays: Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:22 pm
    Looks like its PB numpty hour!]
    and here you are…. 🙂

  5. PageBoi @ #422 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:07 pm

    Someone was asking about the community independents running in Cowper and page earlier today. I live in Page, but right at the southern end and I work in Coffs Harbour (which is Cowper). Caz Heiss in Cowper is running a pretty good campaign IMO, she has the most billboards and corflutes round Coffs (can’t speak for port Macquarie end of Cowper) , did very well at a recent candidates forum (fun fact, the one neuron candidate actually turned up and was….. Something else….. When asked what she’d so about the climate her answer was to demand an immediate investigation into cloud seeding FFS). Sitting Nat Pat Conaghan was extremely rude and annoyed a lot of people, and although he’s on a reasonable margin he doesn’t have much recognition and is pretty invisible, don’t think he’ll have much personal vote to bring to the table. There’s a lot of anger with Scomo over fire and flood non responses so I’d say Caz is in with a good shot

    Page on the other hand is an enigma. Obviously the floods is a major issue, and Kevin Hogan is well known but not necessarily liked, especially in the urban areas of the seat. Hardly any billboards or corflutes aside from Palmer.

    Hanabeth Luke is doing her best, getting round lots of different events and community groups etc, but I worry she may have left her campaign a bit late to get her name out there (and I say this as a volunteer) , but I’ll think she’ll put in a good show and the community groups she’s building will hopefully pay dividends at the next election if not this one. Decent Labor candidate who seems to be pretty active too. Even on many local community pages it’s hard to get a read, it’s like after fires then covid and then floods the electorate is just over it. Very difficult seat to pick I reckon, I’d say there’s a good chance we’ll see the end of Kevin Hogan, but it really could go anywhere

    One common thing I hear is a lot of anger for scomo’s blatant attempt to pork barrel flood recovery money, even round Coffs (which although my part of the world dodged much of the flooding, was a very close run thing and had a lot of people VERY nervous)

    My 2 cents anyway from the best fishing area on the NSW coast!

    Page Boi.
    I’m also in Coffs, and agree with you that Caz Heiss is very likely to take the Coffs end of Cowper. My wife (who knew Caz before the cancer scare that changed her career in Health) grew up in Kempsey and knew Pat Conaghan as the son of one of the local GPs. She (my wife) thinks that local parochialism and the Port Mac Nationals (Catholic division) mafia will prevail for Conaghan – mores the pity.
    Fun fact: Rob Oakeshott graduates from the UNSW Port Mac Medical School this year. We’re taking over.

  7. nath says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:18 pm
    Sometimes I have to bite my lip and laugh at what I can’t post.
    中华人民共和国
    You’re not Robinson Crusoe

  8. The more I see of Simon Earle smirko’s opponent in cook I like him – a local who has grown up and always lived in the shire.

    I hope he gets a big swing to him and if there is a by election he gets in.

  9. Bludging @ #580 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:56 pm

    GlenO says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:46 pm

    The problem is, you view the Greens as “stealing” votes from Labor, as though those votes are Labor’s by right.

    I most certainly do not have this view. Not at all. It’s a free political system. Parties have to struggle for support. My hope is that the Reactionaries will be defeated. There is only one Party that can do that – Labor. There is only one Party in Australian national politics that has ever served the better interests of ordinary people while in power – Labor.

    Everything that makes Labor’s electoral tasks more difficult serves only to keep the Reactionaries in power. That’s what I think. It’s not complicated.

    There it is again – the idea that Labor is the only progressive party that has formed government, and this is the reason to support them.

    The fact of the matter is, Greens voters who would have voted Labor will have their preferences flow to Labor – Greens rarely, if ever, send preferences to the Liberals over Labor, and Greens voters who would otherwise vote Labor aren’t going to ignore the HTV and vote Liberals over Labor because of the Greens. Note that even when there was talk about a Liberal/Green preference deal, it turned out it was just the Liberals planning to preference Greens over Labor in some seats (with no Green involvement, and no Greens preferencing Liberals in return). In 2020, in a NT by-election, everyone was shocked because the Greens actually preferenced the CLP ahead of Labor… which was the first time that had happened since 1995 in Springwood, QLD. Story here: https://antonygreen.com.au/greens-preference-against-labor-in-johnston-by-election/

    In fact, in any seat that the Greens aren’t in the 2PP, it’s fairly obvious that they’re beneficial to Labor, as there would be voters who switch from other parties to Greens, but aren’t that engaged, so they follow the Greens’ HTV and their preferences flow to Labor. There have been few times that the Greens have gotten ahead of Labor… and then lost where Labor would have won. And in most of those cases, it’s because Labor preferences went to the Coalition quicker than Greens preferences would have – which can be more accurately described as Labor ruining the Greens’ chances, by the logic you’ve used.

    Note that this doesn’t apply in the reverse quite as consistently. In 2013, in Melbourne Ports, Danby put the Greens below the Liberals. I do realise that using Danby is a bit of low-hanging fruit, as he was basically a right-wing conservative in Labor clothes, but it makes the point.

    Oh, and here’s a quote from that Antony Green article: “There is also a huge difference in where a preference ends up and the path the preference follows. Whenever the Greens insert another party as a number 2 preference ahead of Labor, there is a huge tendency for Green voters to give a 2 to Labor anyway.”

  10. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:25 pm
    Lars,

    Whenever you’re here, it’s numpty hour.
    中华人民共和国
    He gets on the sauce earlier each day

  12. Hilarious ! numpties going on the attack!

    Rest up – see you all for Newspoll and debate aftermath tomorrow!

  13. Woke-pc-thug says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:31 pm
    [He gets on the sauce earlier each day]
    As does scomo.
    中华人民共和国
    He is looking rather ragged around the edges. He will go off one day and keel over.

  14. [Lars Von Triersays: Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:31 pm
    Hilarious ! numpties going on the attack!
    Rest up – see you all for Newspoll and debate aftermath tomorrow!]
    Will smirko turn up?

  15. Dingbat at 9.20

    I am in partial agreement. Federal Labor has, in the past, allowed itself to be associated with the Greens.

    Labor has clearly delineated itself from the Greens, resulting in the Greens accusing Labor of all sorts of things.

    What pisses me off is that Greens (including posters on this site) portray themselves as above politics.

    Which they aren’t, satisfying the definition of hypocrisy.

  17. [Snappy Tomsays: Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:40 pm
    Woke-pc-thug at 9.28pm (or anyone!)
    Any indications the good people of Cook are ready to jettison Scomo?]
    I doubt he will lose (would be glorious) however his opponent has hundreds of people helping him

  18. GlenO:
    “ There it is again – the idea that Labor is the only progressive party that has formed government, and this is the reason to support them.”

    I don’t see it like that. And I don’t agree that’s the argument.
    It’s more like. If you vote 1 Labor in a marginal Labor seat you can be sure you’re getting some progress on a progressive agenda. It’s mostly bankable. If you vote 1 Green you are getting to feel great about supporting an arguably even more progressive agenda knowing it’s unlikely to be implemented at all (or perhaps bank on a hung parliament scenario for a bit of that agenda only). But. You are also over time eroding the ability of Labor to win and hold the seats they need to do 1. Therefore possibly risking another Tory govt.
    So you’re basically in a bind. Choose some good now. Believing it can be built on and bedded down. Or more good maybe later.
    It’s a simple risk analysis problem and you’re entitled to chose your path. Choose wisely.

  19. Labor is unlikely to gain any votes from being associated with the Greens, so no wonder Albo continually rules out formal agreements with them.
    Conflict between the Greens and Labor does exist at the margins, in their competition for a small number of seats once considered rock-solid Labor. But they are not fighting each other for the prize of government.
    The Greens could only ever expect to hold the balance of power with a minority Labor government. Labor will always strive to win a majority in its own right. The Greens can only grow at the expense of Labor, but not to the extent that Labor cannot even form government in a minority.
    Labor will only need the Greens if it lacks the numbers, whereas the Greens can only ever achieve things if Labor is in office.

  20. Upnorth:

    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:29 pm

    [‘He gets on the sauce earlier each day.’]

    Really pal is that the best you’ve got, seemingly an acolyte of
    the discredited Growler

  21. Snappy Tom says:

    What pisses me off is that Greens (including posters on this site) portray themselves as above politics.

    Which they aren’t, satisfying the definition of hypocrisy.
    ________________________________

    The Difference Between My Darkness And Your Darkness Is That I Can Look At My Own Badness In The Face And Accept Its Existence While You Are Busy Covering Your Mirror With A White Linen Sheet. The Difference Between My Sins And Your Sins Is That When I Sin I Know I’m Sinning While You Have Actually Fallen Prey To Your Own Fabricated Illusions. I Am A Siren, A Mermaid; I Know That I Am Beautiful While Basking On The Ocean’s Waves And I Know That I Can Eat Flesh And Bones At The Bottom Of The Sea. You Are A White Witch, A Wizard; Your Spells Are Manipulations And Your Cauldron From Hell Yet You Wrap Yourself In White And Wear A Silver Wig.

    C. JoyBell C.

  22. I know – here’s a thought. Maybe WB could set up a permanent sticky Labor vs Greens thread and everyone who wants to contribute to that erudite discussion can knock themselves out. Meantime the rest of us don’t have to spend time scrolling past these endless tedious posts. Just an idea…

  23. Mavis says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:47 pm
    Upnorth:

    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:29 pm

    [‘He gets on the sauce earlier each day.’]

    Really pal is that the best you’ve got, seemingly an acolyte of
    the discredited Growler
    中华人民共和国
    Sorry to get up your nostrils old mate.

    But the constant hectoring of certain posters by the above, generally in tandem with his Southern Belle, including Dear Asha some weeks ago, who told one and all he needed a break, leads me to come to the conclusion.

    All come here with an opinion and occasionally a gem. All deserve respect unless bullying others or out and out mistruths are spoken. To hector and badger those who post is unbecoming.

    “I cannot and will not recant for to do so would be neither right nor safe”.

  24. Greens did preference CLP over Labor in Johnson by election A couple of years ago but hello Greens in the Territory are a hobby not a political party.

  25. Federal Labor needs to move further to the centre to be reliably competitive and acceptable to the populace.

    The ALP of old had original policies and stances on many issues that defined its economically liberal, socially (mildly) conservative with a “charity begins at home” lens guiding most polices.

    When they succeeded it was because they were seen as a friend of the Aussie worker who believed that Labor governed exclusively for them. While progressive social policies were generally embraced it was done with caution and guarded restraint.

    The ALP needs to become more pragmatic. If it wants to become the party of government it needs to concede that “quiet Australians” lean more to the right then the party. Once they realise there are more votes up for grabs with this group compared to the far left they will find themselves in with a chance at most elections.

  27. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:44 pm
    “I remember when you pretended to be a concerned independent Cronus a mere 4 weeks ago.”

    I’m not sure which of my comments gave you the impression of me being a concerned independent. I am of course a product of many decades of varied experiences (like most here) that have led me to at least understand perspectives through the eyes of others even if I don’t agree with them.

    Perhaps my generally considered and mostly measured comments have led you to this conclusion. I have though made a couple of quite strident comments re Morrison’s character that I find truly abhorrent that should leave you in little doubt as to how I intend to vote. In short, his continuation as PM (imho) would be greatly to Australia’s detriment and I will be voting accordingly.

    So no pretending (for that is one of Morrison’s characteristics that I detest) from me. I’m perhaps not as vociferous as some about my leanings but I’m steadfast nonetheless. I believe It’s in Australia’s best interest that the ALP win this election. Some things are too important to be seen to be sitting on the fence about and this election is one of them.

  28. Boinzo @ #593 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 9:13 pm

    Yeah I guess. Heather handing out or letterboxing totally mens her opinion should be ignored or discounted.
    I suggested the other day you takes steps to meet these people so you can judge for yourself. You seem to want other people to convince you or provide evidence at your standard. I just reckon go say hi. Both of em are everywhere visible right now. I’m sure they’ll be up for a chat and that will firm up your decision.
    Having said that – I really like your level of engagement. It’s to be commended. But not your apparent lack of humour. It makes you feel suspiciously like a Greens campaign guy trying to road test messages. Probs not the case. Anyway. I like your posts. Thanks.

    Not that her opinion should be ignored, just that it has less impact because people who are working for the campaign are obviously going to have nothing but wonderful things to say about the candidate.

    I’m sorry if I didn’t pick up on the humour – it’s hard to recognise online, and it’s even harder with some of the people here.

  29. Oliver Sutton @ #565 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 6:42 pm

    “ And Labor’s fell by 4.18%, so the net effect is that the progressive vote fell by more than 3%.”

    Only if you categorise Labor as ‘progressive’, Barney.

    And that’s kinda the problem.

    Well if they’re not, the progressive primary vote represented about 11.5% of valid votes at the last election. That’s the natioanal vote, metro and rural.

  30. Mavis says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:08 pm
    Upnorth:

    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:01 pm

    Yes, dear. I pick you as passive-aggressive. I’m rarely wrong.
    中华人民共和国
    100% agree on all of the above learned friend.

  31. Upnorth,

    Pay no attention to the ever whiny Mavis. He was stripped of his black board duster duties some time ago and has never recovered.

    He’s a farting Falstaff character who thinks he controls the blog He spends all his waking hours plotting his re-rising to being the big cheese of the blog so that he can smite his imaginary enemies.

    WB does not seem to pay much attention to his entreaties about conduct on the blog. Neither should you.

  32. I was very surprised to hear that Bushfire Bill has been banned from PB. He had been a contributor here for many years and I mostly enjoyed reading his posts. Can someone please tell me what his sin was?

  33. Upnorth:

    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    [‘100% agree on all of the above learned friend.’]

    Thanks for confirming your passive side; I would not want to suffer the dark side. Pepsy.

  34. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:26 pm

    Stop crawling to one of your few satellites on this site. It’s truly pathetic. Take the moderator’s advice: you’re on thin ice. Pepsys.

  35. @ Greensborough Growler – oh I am never offended by Dear Mavis. And I take delight in your posts good sir.

    It’s the Bully’s who hector on this site that get up my goat. And Lars and his Southern Belle often act in concert to demean certain posters here.

    He even questioned the provenance of my intel!

    Posts that the Greensborough Growler make always catch my eye.

    Thank you for your concern good friend and thanks as always for your contribution.

  36. Mavis,

    Learn to spell Pepsi!

    I’m a Coke man. But, I hate to see an enemy embarrass himself so comprehensively.

  37. Boinzo @ #618 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 9:43 pm

    GlenO:
    “ There it is again – the idea that Labor is the only progressive party that has formed government, and this is the reason to support them.”

    I don’t see it like that. And I don’t agree that’s the argument.
    It’s more like. If you vote 1 Labor in a marginal Labor seat you can be sure you’re getting some progress on a progressive agenda. It’s mostly bankable. If you vote 1 Green you are getting to feel great about supporting an arguably even more progressive agenda knowing it’s unlikely to be implemented at all (or perhaps bank on a hung parliament scenario for a bit of that agenda only). But. You are also over time eroding the ability of Labor to win and hold the seats they need to do 1. Therefore possibly risking another Tory govt.
    So you’re basically in a bind. Choose some good now. Believing it can be built on and bedded down. Or more good maybe later.
    It’s a simple risk analysis problem and you’re entitled to chose your path. Choose wisely.

    You’d be surprised how many have basically said something along the lines of “only Labor will be able to implement their progressive policy”. I’m pretty sure at least one of the people here has basically used precisely that phrase as an argument for why I should vote Labor.

    I can appreciate the concern that Greens working with Labor may reduce the chance of Labor/Liberal swing voters voting Labor… but I don’t think it’s as big a threat as you do, especially in the longer term.

    I can also appreciate that the Greens’ policies are mostly not going to get implemented… but the voice for those policies is worth amplifying, and more seats achieves that.

    So I don’t see the bind. I just see two good parties, that both need to be heard to achieve the best result. And with the younger generation coming through being solidly Labor/Greens in large numbers, I’m confident that the threat of right-wing government will diminish from here.

    This election is the turning point, in my view. Labor are going to form majority government. Teals are going to take a heap of seats off the Coalition, and will likely coalesce into a new party (which I could see a few defectors from the Liberals joining – and I suspect Turnbull will be one of the first to join). The Greens are likely to pick up a couple of additional House seats, and will be at their strongest yet in the Senate. I don’t think the Liberals will be forming government again – if it’s not Labor (in majority or minority), it’ll be something like a Teal-Green coalition (with a small “c”). And that doesn’t scare me as much.

  38. Mavis says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:29 pm
    Upnorth:

    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    [‘100% agree on all of the above learned friend.’]

    Thanks for confirming your passive side; I would not want to suffer the dark side. Pepsy.
    中华人民共和国
    And I yours. I truly enjoy most of the comments on this site and the pith it sometimes breeds. You keep well.

  39. I can’t wait for the Poll Bludger knees up. Mavis and GG will have to sit as the heads of the table! But opposite ends.

  40. Mavis vs GG is far more entertaining than Round 4564 of Labor vs Greens.
    Thank goodness we have a debate and Newspoll tomorrow night to get stuck into.

  42. Evan says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:48 pm
    Mavis vs GG is far more entertaining than Round 4564 of Labor vs Greens.
    Thank goodness we have a debate and Newspoll tomorrow night to get stuck into.
    中华人民共和国
    Agree with that Cobber!! Bring it on.

  43. UpNorth: You can be the official keeper of the bar for the night, Lars and Taylormade can provide the ukulele music.
    Bushfire Bill can return from purgatory.

  44. Evan says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:51 pm
    UpNorth: You can be the official keeper of the bar for the night, Lars and Taylormade can provide the ukulele music.
    Bushfire Bill can return from purgatory.
    中华人民共和国
    And you old mate can do the interpreting. Christopher Pyne and Alexander Downer talk can be difficult to comprehend.

  45. I personally want Albo to kick Morrison’s ass tomorrow night and then a 54-46 Newspoll and maybe a poll from Kooyong showing Joshy boy losing, and then mass panic from the Murdoch press.

  46. Only Guy makes sense with his idea of a separate venue for Labor v Greens.

    Meanwhile there’s an election to be won . . .

  47. I think the next term of Parliament is likely to be a difficult one economically if you look at current trends and it doesn’t really bode well for the major parties at future elections. The housing market is a massive drag on people and other sectors of the economy, and it appears to be a huge bubble ready to pop sooner or later. When it does one or both major parties would struggle to survive – there is already decreasing trust, any housing collapse would plunge it to unseen lows. What political mix would come out of that scenario is unknown but history would suggest it leads to the rise of interest in radical solutions from left, right and centre.

  48. I personally want Albo to kick Morrison’s ass tomorrow night

    And again two weeks later

    Then several months later by FICAC.

    And we’re not talking about a long-eared beast of burden.

  50. My prediction for insiders tomorrow,
    Prewarming the idea that all parties are the same, no diff between labor and liberal and that Albo will have a bad debate.

    Extreme focus will be given to this weeks NDIS gaffe and nothing of substance will be discussed.

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