Another two new polls have come down the chute overnight, one being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll as reported by The Guardian. Labor is at 49% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, up two on a fortnight ago, and the Coalition at 45%, down one, with the remainder undecided. The primary votes have the Coalition down one to 36%, Labor steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 4%, One Nation steady on 3% and undecided down a point to 6%.
The Guardian’s report also reports that the four most salient elections were deemed to be cost of living, improving public services, job security and climate change, respectively rated as important by 79%, 69%, 60% and 54%, with Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of them, respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%. The poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.
The Guardian reports the sample was 1500, whereas the pollster’s sample sizes have hitherto been between 1000 and 1100. It was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Saturday. Further clarification will be provided when the pollster publishes full results and a methodology statement on its website later today.
The other poll is the weekly Roy Morgan, which finds Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5, arresting a generally downward trend for Labor from a peak of 58-42 in mid-March. Both major parties are at 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down half a point and Labor steady. The Greens are up a point to 13%, One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 3% and the United Australia Party is down half a point to 1%. This would translate to about 54-46 based on 2019 election preference flows.
The regular state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (out from 55-45, a swing of about 8%), 63.5-36.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 10.5%), 62.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of around 12%) and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 56.5-43.5 in Queensland (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 2%) and 51-49 in Western Australia (in from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%). Sub-sample sizes are such that all of these should be treated with caution, but the pollster’s readings for the two largest states are consistently at odds with the much tighter race expected by both sides. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1487.
Waleed Aly is a pompous git.
After being treated to Josh at the junior footy club on Sunday evening, this afternoon I happened to walk past Monique Ryan, as she held court in front of the local Woolworths. Not many people about but as I came and went from my grocery shopping Ryan could be seen either talking amiably with any passerby who wanted to chat, or posing for a shot by a photographer who just happened to be along. A few assistants/minders (not Rob Baillieu) were also within reaching distance.
On Sunday my partner observed that Josh was shorter in real life than he appeared on TV, whereas today Ryan was several inches taller than I had pictured her, based on her campaign material. No doubt the high heel pumps she wore helped the effect – a technique not really available to a male conservative candidate, sadly. Unless he was once a foreign minister.
“I think this is emblematic of todays wars.”
***
south, thanks for explaining, yeah I wouldn’t exactly call him a man of the people but he’s interesting at least to me. Perhaps the reason he doesn’t discuss the Middle East is because he is a Muslim? Maybe he just steers clear of it because he would be seen, fairly or unfairly, as too personally invested so doesn’t touch it. I agree he does come across as being similar to a teal, a liberal in the real sense of the word, but that is quite different from a conservative.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:34 pm
“I think this is emblematic of todays wars.”
中华人民共和国
Well I guess you guys will celebrate the Tories defeat nearly as much as us.
Good on you cobber.
Sorry the last post didn’t make too much sense. I’m not pissed but buying Durian with Mrs Upnorth. Anyone who has eaten Durian before will know what I mean.
Ophuph Hucksake, ya know the Downer thing is a bit of an unfortunate meme, IMO. The trope of Downer putting on the stockings and the heels was a very self-deprecating statement that went a long way to showing that he supported people from the gay community from a different time. I remember he did it because someone (a well known photographer?) made a comment about his posture, and wanted to photograph him, because he had nice ankles or something. He said, “alright”.
Now Downer has a very long book of things that you can justifiably say WTF about, but that’s one of the things that he did that wasn’t half bad. For a poncy git.
very long book (in many volumes) of things
“Well I guess you guys will celebrate the Tories defeat nearly as much as us.”
***
Nobody will be happier to see the end of the Coalition than us, I assure you.
If the Coalition finally splits, into say Nationals, right-wing Liberals and moderate Liberals, they will just preference each other and none of them will preference Labor. They will never do a DLP despite the social liberalism of the last group.
There won’t be any electoral dividend for the centre and left.
So what with the disrupted supply lines we’ll have to wait many weeks or months for more hyphens as we don’t make them here, China won’t let us have any and our strategic reserve is in the USA…
Sitting here in Singapore and it 9:43 and barmy 30 deg.
You can keep that fruit ,they say nice to eat ….with a peg on your nose….hard to walk past the fruit stalls here in singers with that hanging around.
Durian is great… I miss it.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:45 pm
“Well I guess you guys will celebrate the Tories defeat nearly as much as us.”
***
Nobody will be happier to see the end of the Coalition than us, I assure you.
中华人民共和国
You vape digger and I will get slowly drunk. But I will be pissed if we ain’t getting booth figures from Richmond’
mj,
I wouldn’t go so softly to say that Teals aren’t conservative. They are conservative, economic liberalism is a conservative trick to fool people into thinking they can pull themselves up by their bootstraps. That poverty is a market force etc.
Anyway on Teal conservatives I don’t like them, I’d rather greens, or better labor. People like Zali Steggall want climate change action because her mates have waterfront property. Not because 2 Billion poor people are directly exposed to the existential risk of climate change. But I can see the common goal so I’m happy to ignore all that and just see progress, regardless the vessel it arrives in.
Anyway, off to bed for me. I want a lot of energy to watch scomo and fberg spin the unspinnable.
There’s like a lot more days until this is over. Sadly.
Steve777: “So what with the disrupted supply lines we’ll have to wait many weeks or months for more hyphens as we don’t make them here, China won’t let us have any and our strategic reserve is in the USA…”
I think we might need to ration hyphens. I mean there are a whole bunch of words you can immediately think of that should lose them. anyone. ok. I wonder if we could substitute back slashes? Might be a growth industry?
Freya, I think the teals, if they end up winning a few seats would effectively be a split of moderate Liberals never to return, they have no place in this party and haven’t since about 2001. How can they negotiate with the Libs AND the Nats to achieve their aims? There’s nothing in common besides low taxes.
Mrmoney says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:46 pm
Sitting here in Singapore and it 9:43 and barmy 30 deg.
You can keep that fruit ,they say nice to eat ….with a peg on your nose….hard to walk past the fruit stalls here in singers with that hanging around.
中华人民共和国
The Singaporeans go for the most expensive and smelly Durain. In Thailand it’s Mong Thong which is more like a “Blue Cheese Custard Apple”. 30 degrees is nice. There is a Cyclone out at sea that’s dropped temperature some.
Remember Maxwell Road Food Court if you can make it. River Valley Char Kway Teoh. Get the blood cockles extra.
Pi says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:51 pm
Steve777: “So what with the disrupted supply lines we’ll have to wait many weeks or months for more hyphens as we don’t make them here, China won’t let us have any and our strategic reserve is in the USA…”
I think we might need to ration hyphens. I mean there are a whole bunch of words you can immediately think of that should lose them. anyone. ok. I wonder if we could substitute back slashes? Might be a growth industry?
————————
Here you cobbers have mine for a few days. I promise to be good
Back_slashes have got to be the way_to_go.
south
“From wikipedia ‘Aly is a lecturer in politics at Monash University working in their Global Terrorism Research Centre’. ”
Trying to verify the “is a lecturer” in this claim is a bit of a rabbit hole, as is whether he’s actually contributed to any academic research in the area outside of his own thesis.
Night cobbers one and all. I think a good day for the Goodies (COVID Killed Tim Brooke-Taylor, even he had a hyphenated name).
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:55 pm
Back_slashes have got to be the way_to_go.
中华人民共和国
I am stealing that! Kup Khun Krap!
“You vape digger and I will get slowly drunk. But I will be pissed if we ain’t getting booth figures from Richmond’”
***
This election night shindig will be quite the affair!
We should probably make sure we have something to celebrate first though.
Best we all vote 1 Greens and 2 Labor to make doubly sure the party goes as planned! 😉
I’m not sure I’ve mentioned it, but I used to live in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand over the years. In Singapore and Malaysia over many years, as I spent a few years there as a child. Back in ye olde times when the Changi beach-side hotel served marvelous chili crab.
Now I’m going to watch videos about space-rockets.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:58 pm
“You vape digger and I will get slowly drunk. But I will be pissed if we ain’t getting booth figures from Richmond’”
***
This election night shindig will be quite the affair!
We should probably make sure we have something to celebrate first though.
Best we all vote 1 Greens and 2 Labor to make doubly sure the party goes as planned!
中华人民共和国
Like Grandad said bloke. Always paint your house white and always vote Labor. My house is white, and I vote Labor. But don’t worry digger. What our Senate ticket says you will get. You be safe.
Pi says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:59 pm
I’m not sure I’ve mentioned it, but I used to live in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand over the years. In Singapore and Malaysia over many years, as I spent a few years there as a child. Back in ye olde times when the Changi beach-side hotel served marvelous chili crab.
Now I’m going to watch videos about space-rockets.
中华人民共和国
All changed digger. I think Malaysia slowly. Thailand but Singapore massively. I am going have to Durain and get some shut eye. One day closer.
Yeah I have family in Singapore and used to go there every summer holidays as a kid, they were fond memories. The hawker food is delicious all around, my favourite of all though is roti prata (called roti canai in Malaysia). Used to follow my aunty to church and endure the service knowing I could score some chicken rice afterwards. Durian I don’t really get the appeal, it tastes ok but not great and it gives me a sore throat, it’s like a stinky not very tasty mango.
Changi Beach 1975.
Lovely image of Far Kew in the Go Josh cartoon. It hasn’t changed much, the Barnaby and Canavan graff is a nice touch.
FNQ couldn’t spare a hyphen up north at Mossman when my daughter was born in 1990, not allowed in Qld, we were told
Sunday was down at a Sentosa beachside resort drinking frozen pineapple margaritas ,was very nice and relaxing,yesterday daughter took us to the panamericana over looking beach and golf course,expensive tastes on our beer budget……..6 cocktails $200
@woke thug:
“It’s interesting because previously this was not the case – have the right wing users moved to another platform, disappeared altogether, the lnp can’t afford paid staffers or something else is going on?”
Russian bots either got crushed, lost global internet access or have other priorities at the moment.
Mrmoney well worth visiting Gardens by the Bay if you haven’t already.
Daughter been here for 10 yrs now ,we come about 3 times a year ,wife’s brother was here for 10 + years before that ,this would be our 40 th time here now.
Going for bike ride tomorrow and movies Seniors price $4.50:
It seems right wingers only ever come on here when they feel there’s something to crow about their electoral chances. So the lack of presence so far is probably a good sign for Labor. Would like to see how Herald Sun etc. readers are thinking to get a better idea but it seems all their comment threads are hidden behind paywalls, just accentuates the silos.
It’s hard to know who gets more self gratification from the sound of their own
voice; Waleed Aly or PVO…
Or Stan Grant, or Greg Jennet.
mj @ Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 12:34 am
“How’s the serenity” 😉
@mJ
low taxes and economic liberalism is a pretty big thing to have in common; it is not exactly some minor side issue.It’s the reason Teals are competitive in these seats and Labor never will be.
The whole social conservative thing is way overstated the core tory vote is small business, the self employed, self funded retirees, part pensioners and people on high salaries who work in the private sector who vote Tory out of economic self interest.
These people will run back to the tories in a heartbeat if they think the teals are going to entrench Labor governments in power for long periods of time and the whole teal thing will collapse like a pricked balloon.
Like South I can’t stomach teals, they seem to be just a climate change based movement minus the quasi socialist baggage that comes with the greens. Climate change appeals because actions taken to tackle it will require little sacrifice on their behalf but make them feel good about themselves.
Freya Starksays:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:45 pm
If the Coalition finally splits, into say Nationals, right-wing Liberals and moderate Liberals, they will just preference each other and none of them will preference Labor. They will never do a DLP despite the social liberalism of the last group.
===
It really depends. It’s looking pretty likely at the moment that the biggest losers out of this election will be the Moderate wing of the Liberal party. This is the part of the Liberals that identify with Turnbull, who has already turned his back on the Right, and has openly called out the Morrison government quite a bit, even during the election.
Other past Moderates haven’t said a thing to help the Morrison government, or damn with faint praise when they do speak. Julie Bishop and George Brandis have, as far as I can tell, been completely absent. Christopher Pyne has made comments, but they tend to be more about election campaign style than policy or worthiness.
Meanwhile, some of the National Right are being thrown under the bus, too. Zed Seselja is in the fight of his political life and in the middle of it is sent on a suicide mission to Solomon Islands. Eric Abetz, heavyweight of the National Right, has been moved to the likely-unwinnable third slot in Tasmania. Concetta Fierravanti-Wells has been bullied out of the party by Morrison. Amanda Stoker is in the at-risk third position in the Queensland senate while James McGrath of Morrison’s faction is at the safe first position.
If Moderates are finding themselves being forcefully ejected from the Liberal party in great numbers, it’s likely that a big chunk will go Teal (or at least align with them). You know that the Teals won’t be friendly with the Liberals because the Liberals have put the Teals last on their HTV cards, below even Labor (the Teals have taken the “preference however you want” angle). Most of the eco Liberals are Moderates, too.
The National Right will probably end up merging with the Nationals if Morrison pushes them out – not a big change, but a big shift in the balance between the two parties. The Moderates, on the other hand, will land in a space that is much more uncertain. I don’t think you can rely on them to favour Liberal over Labor in this scenario.
Mj
Certainly seems that way. I rarely see them participate in policy discussions or even defend Lib policy decisions. Then again, we probably don’t have those discussions very often, and there’s very little policy available to defend under this current government.
One can only assume it’s because when you drill into the details, Labor’s policy positions have far more merit. I for one wish they would chime in more often. It’s important to have your ideas challenged.
Glen0
If the Libs do lose, it’s likely to be predominantly conservatives remaining in parliament. If this is the case, Dutton probably becomes leader.
We’ll see the Libs move to the right and hopefully flounder for some time, all the while scratching their heads as to why populism and fear mongering doesn’t win votes.
Voodoo I understand the dynamics of potentially teal seats, I grew up in Curtin for most of my life until 5 years ago, have never been a Liberal voter but understand why others do, and in Curtin it’s mostly to do with money. However they are usually socially liberal and have some social conscience. They are broadly well off to the extent they are kind of post-materialist and looking at more existential issues. The current member is not well suited.
The Liberals are trying to exploit the social conservative vote in other seats but it doesn’t run well in the inner cities, I think the inner urban affluent areas are a lost cause. They are now seen as corrupted and not actual local representatives. Labor has it’s own demographic tightrope to walk and won’t be seen as a threat to these voters the way things stand.
I like to think that somewhere on the internet is a version of PB stocked predominantly with Liberal voters, some One Nation types and a few Labor trolls who keep peeking in every time there’s a poll result to crow about. With Liberal vs One Nation slap fights equivalent to the Labor v Greens fights here where they argue about whether the Liberals are being pure enough in their opposition to climate change action and whether One Nation is just all hat and no cattle because they can promise any old shit without costing it or worrying about delivery or getting elected anywhere outside North Queensland, and there’s some poster called FireHair who just adoringly reposts Pauline Hanson Facebook posts all day.
In the long run, it seems like Australia will more closely resemble the US and Canada, where in the cities the conservative party is uncompetitive even in the richer areas while they have more on a monopoly in the regional and rural areas.
The Teals and the present ALP may merge to form a sort of “Reason” party based on social liberalism, a modest welfare state, globalisation and climate action. The remains of the Liberal Party, PHON and National Party may merge to form a “Reaction” party of populist reactionary politics.
Income will start to be decoupled from party vote although “Reaction” will cut taxes for the ultrarich and big business while degrading the welfare state. The vote will be strongly correlated with education and race, although a large minority of Anglos will still vote “Reason”.
The key marginal seats will be the middle to outer suburbs of capital cities, regional cities, and maybe inner Brisbane and rural Victoria, owing to the relative conservatism and liberalism of Queensland and Victoria respectively.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/03/essential-research-2pp-labor-49-coalition-45-roy-morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor/comment-page-23/#comment-3890051
Compared with the USA Australia has more of its population concentrated in metropolises and a more even balance of states. We also have regional cities where the ALP are competitive or better in, even in the larger Commonwealth electorates.
Arky,
“The Poll Builder”. 🙂
New thread.
The Australian name for “tokay” is now “topaque” (Pronounced “toe-pake”.)
Apparently “port” is also verboten; “tawny port” is now just “tawny”, and “port” seems to be just called “fortified” (e.g. “vintage fortified” or “white fortified”.)
STF
‘It is actually pretty common these days….’
Might depend on the circles you move in.
I’m a teacher at a school of 900 students. There’s about five families with hypenated names, and of those, two of them are branches of the same family.
So maybe 1% of the school population – not really that common.
fwiw, I did hypenate my surname for a brief period.
Before my wedding, my father did an emotional pitch about how he was the last of his name and that it would die with him, so I took on a hyphenated surname so long that it didn’t fit on most forms (26 letters, from memory….I can’t be bothered counting).
A month or so later, we received a congratulatory letter from my aunts overseas, which included the information that one of their uncles had six sons, so I immediately dropped my maiden name (as a service to the nation, although the ungrateful b*stards now can’t cope with the name I have…)