Another two new polls have come down the chute overnight, one being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll as reported by The Guardian. Labor is at 49% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, up two on a fortnight ago, and the Coalition at 45%, down one, with the remainder undecided. The primary votes have the Coalition down one to 36%, Labor steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 4%, One Nation steady on 3% and undecided down a point to 6%.
The Guardian’s report also reports that the four most salient elections were deemed to be cost of living, improving public services, job security and climate change, respectively rated as important by 79%, 69%, 60% and 54%, with Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of them, respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%. The poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.
The Guardian reports the sample was 1500, whereas the pollster’s sample sizes have hitherto been between 1000 and 1100. It was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Saturday. Further clarification will be provided when the pollster publishes full results and a methodology statement on its website later today.
The other poll is the weekly Roy Morgan, which finds Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5, arresting a generally downward trend for Labor from a peak of 58-42 in mid-March. Both major parties are at 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down half a point and Labor steady. The Greens are up a point to 13%, One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 3% and the United Australia Party is down half a point to 1%. This would translate to about 54-46 based on 2019 election preference flows.
The regular state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (out from 55-45, a swing of about 8%), 63.5-36.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 10.5%), 62.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of around 12%) and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 56.5-43.5 in Queensland (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 2%) and 51-49 in Western Australia (in from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%). Sub-sample sizes are such that all of these should be treated with caution, but the pollster’s readings for the two largest states are consistently at odds with the much tighter race expected by both sides. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1487.
B.S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:34 pm
Nath – The fact that they were starting to become a joke and Greg Chipp, son of founder Don, was beaten in the pre-selection. They PCed themselves into not being taken seriously.
She would probably be the right mix in the current market to get the totally woke vote but I think they might have been ahead of their time.
__________
Well perhaps Greg was not a good enough chip off the old block. Personally, failure to engage in nepotism and dynastic politics is a good thing imo.
Labor has a candidate with the same disability, I’m not sure of her sexuality or whether she has met the pope. But all these things are irrelevant. Unless, you are Greg Chipp…..?
ParkySP,
People don’t like Waleed, when people figured out he was a conservative and a bit of a prick who like his own voice the shine wore off. Much can be said also about Hamish Macdonald. Remember when he worked for ABC for a hot minute. I wonder if he just found the rigor too tiresome.
You gotta remember, these people earn lots of money and even they have trouble buying houses in Australia. To sell out is expected.
[Commentariat Uprisingsays:Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:38 pm
Yes, it is a common problem with Twitter and its demographics. Ironically, while far right combativeness is also extremely common, relatively little comes out of the Libs as they have the weakest online presence in this campaign by far.]
It’s interesting because previously this was not the case – have the right wing users moved to another platform, disappeared altogether, the lnp can’t afford paid staffers or something else is going on?
Twitter has become a bit of an eco chamber.
As for the project – they lost me as a viewer a while ago and I have not been back.
Greens back arts with minimum $250 fee
Supporting live performers will be on the Greens’ agenda in the next federal parliament as part of a proposed $1 billion fund for the sector.
The minor party has pledged to back union calls for a $250 minimum fee for artists performing at public-funded events, and to deliver a Live Performance Insurance Guarantee, particularly relevant after a string of cancellations throughout the pandemic.
Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young accused the government of ignoring “repeated pleas” to support the industry through COVID-19 lockdowns.
“The Morrison government has treated the arts sector and creative workers with contempt,” she said.
“The arts helped us all get through lockdowns whether it was listening to our favourite bands, watching our favourite shows, reading a good novel or appreciating other forms of art. It’s time we are there for them … performers are the reason audiences show up, they deserve a minimum fee for publicly funded events.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7721843/greens-back-arts-with-minimum-250-fee/
The interview with Albo on Six news was great. The way his face lit up when he talked about DJing for his charity and when he talked about music & his community was so damn good. Was a great look for him. Labor should replay excerpts.
Overall I think Waleed Aly is alright, sure he can come off as a bit arrogant but he’s one of the more thoughtful and insightful commentators in the Australian media. I rarely watch The Project though mostly hear from him through the ABC podcast “The Minefield”.
Something beautiful today, down at the creek.
No one was expecting to be where we are now, after “the gaffe” in the first week!
And as promised a re-run of “the wars” appeared to allow the purchase of the choc coated ice creams !!
We need to be grateful to Morrison for being the most disingenuous, liar and misleading spruiker the libs had available to usher in a new Labor government.
So much so, the imminent establishment of a FICAC, should ensure that the public flogging to be received by the arrogant self-righteous political bullies.
These bullies were initially led by the unfortunate Howard ascendency and ended with the equally unfortunate ascendency of Morrison.
We will be provided with perhaps decades of “miraculous” astonishment and disbelief as the commission unfolds the duplicity and deceit.
Morrison can become a pastor or cook pasta, enough now ready to see the “complete deadshit” banished to wherever.
The Albanese era looking good!
Not forgetting that the vacating tenants have “trashed” the place and are hoping for a successful getaway.
Nath – It was the fact that choose a 19 year old that the media and voters didn’t take seriously. The die had been cast anyway by then. They fell from 7.8% and a senator in 2001 to 1.9%.
It was that election that saw Stephen Fielding elected for Family First over the Greens instead due to a preference deal done by Labor in attempt to save Janicta Collins in 3rd spot. The definition of all that was wrong with group ticket voting. (This of course resulted in the passing of WorkChoices).
Hiding in plain sight. Clever little fellow.
Yabba – Always like their tails.
Goll you’re right. Morrison and Howard are bookends of the most corrupt era the Coalition have ever had. What Malcolm Fraser did to Gough Whitlam was evil but those other two are a whole other level of wrong.
Woke-pc-thug: “It’s interesting because previously this was not the case – have the right wing users moved to another platform, disappeared altogether, the lnp can’t afford paid staffers or something else is going on?”
They ran out of money. The engagement of the link-bots is waaaay down now.
Picking on people who have hyphenated names is a bit average.
Woke-pc-thug
I don’t remember how much coordinated Liberal activity there was last time, individually in various forums they were all quietly confident. This time around though they are just absent and there’s a stark gap to Labor’s polished online campaign.
I guess the talent and the talking points got sucked into the anti-lockdown blitz and then what was left over got sucked into the Teals.
yabba says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 10:07 pm
Something beautiful today, down at the creek.
…..
Thanks Yabba
Nice pix yabba. vary purdy.
yabba says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 10:14 pm
Hiding in plain sight. Clever little fellow.
中华人民共和国
Really like your pics Yabba. I miss home. Thank you
David Pope:
The cartoonists are really capturing the farce now.
Upnorth
Youse are faaaaar up north .
mj says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 10:01 pm
Overall I think Waleed Aly is alright, sure he can come off as a bit arrogant but he’s one of the more thoughtful and insightful commentators in the Australian media. I rarely watch The Project though mostly hear from him through the ABC podcast “The Minefield”.
————-
I agree. Most commentators in the media regurgitate the same old lines and half-baked horse race analysis. Aly doesn’t do that. He’s a much more independent and contextual thinker and it’s why I enjoy his writing and podcasts, whether I share his perspectives or not. He certainly doesn’t glibly sign up to the verities of any specific political party. I can see that people who approach politics through a highly partisan lens and who feel that anyone who doesn’t see the world in the same black and white way as they do is ipso facto bad, or stupid or has some dark agenda would dislike Aly.
Salvage The Future @ #1064 Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 – 10:19 pm
It’s just a bit of fun.
Last time, the polls were at 51-49 at this stage; they had been all through the election campaign. I talked to one of my friends who works at a Union who was calling Queensland members and they said they were getting really bad reactions. I should have seen what that meant.
There was a swing against the Government last time in 55 seats, to the government in 92 seats and four where the Liberals and Nationals didn’t feature in the final count. And in the end there was only a single seat net gained to them too. So it was a complete mixed bag to some degree and not a clear uniform swing by any means; normally if the swing is on it is on across the board.
“Come on Waleed!”
– Henry Rollins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIKdP9GKXR8
Greens will pay women more to reduce gender pay gap
At today’s Labour Day rally in Brisbane the Greens will announce a plan for decisive action to close the gender pay gap by raising wages in industries dominated by women like nursing, childcare, and education.
Women have been fighting for economic equality for decades but the gap between the average earnings of women and men in the workforce remains stubbornly wide.
The Workplace Gender Equality Agency (WGEA) says women on average take home $255.30 or 13.8% less a week than men, a problem that persists due to discrimination; lack of workplace flexibility; women doing a far greater share of unpaid caring and domestic work; career progression being stymied by time out of the workforce for caring and parenting; and women-dominated sectors attracting lower wages.
In a recent white paper, national women’s alliance, Economic Security 4 Women, estimated that providing annual wage increases for female-dominated industries of 0.5% above the consumer price index (CPI) for 10 years alone could lower the gender pay gap below 10%. Other measures previously announced by the Greens would close the gap even further.
https://www.nationaltribune.com.au/greens-will-pay-women-more-to-reduce-gender-pay-gap/
max,
fair enough to like him, however Waleed is a very conservative voice in the media. I’ve listened to the minefield and he and Scott Stephens sound exactly like the kinds of people you don’t want to have around you when you need to change a tire.
I think you should experience all that Waleed has to offer. Start watching the project, because The Minefield is just one face of him.
I don’t like conservatives like Peta Credlin, but I respect that she has the integrity to be of a position. Waleed is more of an intellectual actor than a journalist, and his code switching on the project is kind of sad.
By the by, most interesting to hear Waleed Aly and Charlie Pickering speak about their respective faiths on a recent edition of ‘Tomorrow Tonight’, a panel show hosted by Annabel Crabb. Worth a look.
South what makes you think Waleed is a conservative? To me he usually states what he thinks is occurring in a politically detached way.
Two points to make.
1. That David Pope cartoon is Rowe levels of minor details. I love it.
2. As a long time lurker, I am at pleased I can scroll past Firefox’s constant Greens spam thanks to his bright green avatar. Makes it so easy to spot. How someone can post so much but contribute so little bemuses me.
People in the comments above wondering about the Chipps – I’ve met a couple of Don’s kids through various circumstances.
Don’s youngest daughter Laura ran for Reason in the upper house at the Vic election in 2018. Don’t know if she’s interested in standing again, but she’s good value. She was kind of running as the counterweight to Derryn Hinch – focusing on evidence-based criminal justice reform etc, as opposed to the Hinch Mob’s heavy handed attitude. Makes sense in the context of Fiona Patten’s views.
poroti says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 10:25 pm
Upnorth
中华人民共和国
Youse are faaaaar up north .
中华人民共和国
That’s right cobber. Not that I mind but haven’t physically spoken to a “white person” since Christmas!
But hey the locals are wonderful.
Agree that Pope cartoon is great, it encapsulates the problem with the modern LNP in one image.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 10:30 pm
Salvage The Future @ #1064 Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 – 10:19 pm
Picking on people who have hyphenated names is a bit average.
It’s just a bit of fun.
中华人民共和国
Fun police at us mate. But we won’t be bowed. Fire-Fox is a top sport and he has a hyphenated name.
So I reckon C@t and troops, bugger them we is going over the top!!! Battle stations.
Hey Upnorth, when are you going to next check insider polling, and can you specifically name the specific amount of seats that Labor would win with that polling? I get it if you can’t ydue to confedentiality.
Hi Socrates – I just noticed your ideas on using our LHDs as part of an A2/AD network. I entirely agree. I’m off to bed now, but I promise to write a longish post on this tomorrow.
However, no matter how useful those LHD assets would be in an A2/AD network we still need mobile launch platforms for long range heavy missiles that can attack and overwhelm an enemy fleet in a missile swarm that is guaranteed to penetrate that fleet’s CIWS defences. ie. a launch System that can fire a single volley of over 100 tomahawks: probably Tic missile cruisers until we can get either Flight 3 Arliegh Burkes by the end of this decade or DDG(X)s by the middle of the next decade. We need that missile swarm capability NOW.
Hmmm… hyphenated names often come from your parents divorcing or for remembrance of a family name…it is also something done by couples that do not assume patriarchal norms…I guess how many people with hyphenated names, who might come across this blog, feel a bit targetted by the piss take? Is it suggested that having a hyphenated name is a woke elitist cliche? Though it’s not really punch up humour. It is actually pretty common these days, dunno could be a demographic element to people with hyphenated names being more common to a particular political persuasion, but seems more personally circumstantial for people to have hyphenated names. Do people think it is bad to have hyphenated names so it is worth taking the piss out of these people a lot?
Up north I’m not fun policing maybe you are a bit persistently harrassing of people with hyphenated names.
And I called it a bit average.
Tazza says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:05 pm
Hey Upnorth, when are you going to next check insider polling, and can you specifically name the specific amount of seats that Labor would win with that polling? I get it if you can’t ydue to confedentiality.
中华人民共和国
As noted earlier there may be a report in a major metropolitan daily tomorrow about an independent PS He is from QLD. Will put the ear to the ground.
mj,
He’s a talented man, and very smart, but there’s a blindness to others real lives that I perceive about him. (maybe im wrong, but he comes off as mighty tool on the project)
People used to be really charmed by Henry Kissinger because he was so smart and loved engaging in deep thinking intellectualism. Like every conversation was a scene on the west wing.
I think he’s pretty conservative, and would probably fit in well amongst teal liberals.
Just one thing, surprisingly.
From wikipedia ‘Aly is a lecturer in politics at Monash University working in their Global Terrorism Research Centre’.
I have never heard him, ever, talk about or discuss Australia’s involvement in Iraq or Afghanistan and any of the war crimes related news that’s come from those events. That really strikes me as odd. Unless you’re kinda conservative and think global colonialism is A, OK.
Also, I didn’t hear a peep at all about the Siege of Marawi from him for the whole time that was happening. Did you know the Australian government was thinking about sending special forces to that? Like that’s right there in the middle of his field of research. You think he’d use his national platform for some news….
Salvage The Future says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:11 pm
Up north I’m not fun policing maybe you are a bit persistently harrassing of people with hyphenated names.
And I called it a bit average.
中华人民共和国
Good on you cobber. As everyone knows call me out when I am a bit crazy. So taken all on board. Where is home digger?
“Fun police at us mate. But we won’t be bowed. Fire-Fox is a top sport and he has a hyphenated name.”
***
I don’t mind the playful jokes about it like we were having the other day lol, but sometimes it can be used against the Greens in a more nasty way to suggest that we’re all rich snobs. There are many reasons why someone may have a hyphenated surname. I explained SHY’s earlier as one example. Mine is simply because my parents never got married, even though they are very much in love and remain together to this day.
Maybe I’m just jealous of the hyphenated named folk. The total number of letters of both of my names together is less than 10. No room for hyphens there.
Re C@t @10:19.
”Morrison and Howard are bookends of the most corrupt era the Coalition have ever had.”
It would be nice to think that the woeful cycle in Australian politics that started in March 1996 ends this month. It didn’t end in 2007 and it will be very difficult to halt then reverse now. The corrupt milieu which nourished it will still be there, the dodgy Liberal mates throughout business, the extractive industries, the privatised services, the mainstream media, the hard right, the Morrison-style “Christians”, the racists and bigots given the green light. The ship won’t be turned easily. Still, here’s hoping.
I thought $250 was the minimum for single performance (less per show over week) for any funded production. That’s been my experience with applications. Problem is most artists perform in non funded shows, and there is no point insisting on $250 without systemic overhaul of arts funding, venues etc etc etc
The 10 Year Bond Yield in the USA briefly popped above 3% ahead of the Fed Reserve
The 10 Year Bond Yield in Australia is at 3.38%
We have been informed that the inflation rate in the USA is above the inflation rate in Australia
And if the Teals continue their success in getting numbers, the Liberal Party may finally split
There remain deep wounds from the Cormack legal proceedings
Firefox says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 11:17 pm
“Fun police at us mate. But we won’t be bowed. Fire-Fox is a top sport and he has a hyphenated name.”
***
I don’t mind the playful jokes about it like we were having the other day lol, but sometimes it can be used against the Greens in a more nasty way to suggest that we’re all rich snobs. There are many reasons why someone may have a hyphenated surname. I explained SHY’s earlier as one example. Mine is simply because my parents never got married, even though they are very much in love and remain together to this day.
中华人民共和国
Yeah cobber and point taken. But you was a top sport the other day.
I tells you what Upnorth will give up the Hyphens for a while. But I won’t give up the Labor Party and giving all youse me sausage. Even old Lars don’t like it.
I wish youse were a big Hyphenated Barramundi though. Poddy Mullet and I would have you for tea.
But he what it may. The era of Hyphenated names is over. RIP
I think this is emblematic of todays wars.
Hey up north
The line …… news flash. The printers just called and said they can no longer print Green material,,
……..as they had run out of hyphens …………was pretty funny ,I had my laugh for the day.
I am in Frankston, vic, my kids have hyphenated names as my partner wanted to remember her Ukranian father’s family name. I respect my partner for that so don’t see the problem. I have family who have hyphenated names and they were raised by their mother so took both names. That could be a common reason for hyphenated names too. I can take a joke and I, like all of us, obviously have far bigger things to be upset about at the moment.
Given I kicked off this about Waleed I’m interested in the comments. South you see exactly what I do.
I read an extremely thoughtful piece in The Age by him and it gets me thinking. Hear him on radio the same. He gets on The Project and I watch and hear the complete opposite. Why? The biggest audience and he’s completely different.
On the Project I see an entitled Melbourne private school system product which I don’t get from other mediums he works in. I’m curious to know why he has that change. I’ve lost respect for him the past couple of years is all I can say…
Mind you, not as much as fanboi Hamish. Get back on Morrison’s bus and ride that to the end buddy. You know you want to.
The thing is Steve777, I’m optimistic. You know why? To power our world with free energy is going to be cheaper for us than powering it with fossil fuel energy. Anyone who chooses to investigate the subject knows it. The true bastardry of the major industry that has dragged the chain on renewables deployment, has simply delayed it. For massive cost.
But it’s all changing anyway. Australia went from effectively zero renewables powering our grid to just shy of 30% of our entire grid energy supply in about 12 years. If it hadn’t been for the LNP, we’d be at 50%. That growth isn’t decelerating, it’s accelerating. The pie-in-the-sky renewables roll-out (the step change) of five years ago is now the expected renewables deployment in 2030. But there’s a very real possibility that the hydrogen super-power model previously thought un-attainable will happen. It’s now more likely that that will happen than the step-change was thought would happen, and it took five years for that realization to change.
Australia is literally the luckiest country in the world. It’s the whole saying :
“Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second rate people who share its luck. It lives on other people’s ideas, and, although its ordinary people are adaptable, most of its leaders (in all fields) so lack curiosity about the events that surround them that they are often taken by surprise.”
Australia is changing that. South Australia is a model for the adoption of renewable power for the entire world, and it went from effectively 0% renewables to 60% of the grid being powered by renewables in 12 years. They’ll easily be net-100% by five. By 10, it’s unlikely they’ll have any energy in their grid that isn’t renewable, and they’ll be exporting 200% of their net energy. This is a state that sits on two of the largest natural gas and nuclear repositories in the world. They export renewable energy. Because it’s cheaper.
This transition is happening. Every state is doing it. All the federal government needs to do is adopt the same programs as the states are already doing (including LNP NSW), and it’s showtime. Anthony Albanese is the former federal infrastructure minister. As if he doesn’t know this shit.