Another two new polls have come down the chute overnight, one being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll as reported by The Guardian. Labor is at 49% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, up two on a fortnight ago, and the Coalition at 45%, down one, with the remainder undecided. The primary votes have the Coalition down one to 36%, Labor steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 4%, One Nation steady on 3% and undecided down a point to 6%.
The Guardian’s report also reports that the four most salient elections were deemed to be cost of living, improving public services, job security and climate change, respectively rated as important by 79%, 69%, 60% and 54%, with Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of them, respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%. The poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.
The Guardian reports the sample was 1500, whereas the pollster’s sample sizes have hitherto been between 1000 and 1100. It was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Saturday. Further clarification will be provided when the pollster publishes full results and a methodology statement on its website later today.
The other poll is the weekly Roy Morgan, which finds Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5, arresting a generally downward trend for Labor from a peak of 58-42 in mid-March. Both major parties are at 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down half a point and Labor steady. The Greens are up a point to 13%, One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 3% and the United Australia Party is down half a point to 1%. This would translate to about 54-46 based on 2019 election preference flows.
The regular state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (out from 55-45, a swing of about 8%), 63.5-36.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 10.5%), 62.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of around 12%) and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 56.5-43.5 in Queensland (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 2%) and 51-49 in Western Australia (in from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%). Sub-sample sizes are such that all of these should be treated with caution, but the pollster’s readings for the two largest states are consistently at odds with the much tighter race expected by both sides. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1487.
When you deduct 3 points from the Labor 2pp from these polls (the polling error average from last election), you get a very close result, either side could win with a strong chance at a hung parliament.
Interesting times… snap repeat election?
When you add 3 points to the labor 2pp from these polls (same polling error as last election in the other direction), you get a very one sided result.
I think the wiser way to look at the polling is just to understand that there could be a wide range of scenarios from an enormous labor majority to a narrow liberal majority, with the most likely scenario being a comfortable labor majority.
“Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of [the ‘most salient’ election issues], respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%.”
Cue PVO: “Wow!”
Great to see a movement to Labor in both polls, even if the 2PP numbers themselves can’t necessarily be relied upon. We all thought it was a bad week for the Coalition and the data seems to back that up.
When you (arbitrarily) deduct 3 points from the BludgerTrack 2pp average, you get 51.0 – 49.0 to Labor.
In Kevin Bonham’s historic seat model, a 2PP of 51.1 or 51.2 “on average gives Labor 2PP wins in 76 of the 145 current 2PP seats, but the road to a hung parliament becomes very much wider”.
Keep following that yellow brick road, Freya.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/04/poll-roundup-federal-hung-parliament.html
From Essential:
“The challenge to connect with disengaged voters is also highlighted by the fact that 17% of people say they have not been paying any attention to the news, advertising or updates from the federal election campaign, and 33% saying they have only been paying little attention.”
“ The [Essential] poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.”
Again, “wow!” An *11-point* drop in net agreement that ‘Australia is heading in the right direction’ — way outside the MOE — in just *two weeks*.
Freya Stark lived in Iraq through the 1930s.
Comical Ali was born in 1937.
Just sayin’ …
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2010889.Freya_Stark_in_Iraq_Kuwait
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf
I thought the Chicken Korma looked a bit pale…
To date the media/gov propaganda efforts have to a certain extent entertained, mainly by exaggerating situations beyond the realm of possibility ie Farcical. Hard to see how they can maintain this black comedy for the remainder of the campaign. This is the danger of a long campaign the second season gets cancelled, the Humpty Dumpty effect. The ALP is not blameless here doing their best to mash politics down to a bland centrist mush. I am looking for some cameo independent performances to get us through the last few weeks of this turgid mess.
Ugh. No wonder people are sick of him.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-pussyfoot-around-fraser-says-rba-has-to-start-lifting-rates-now-20220502-p5ahrr.html
I’m tipping the RBA will put an interest rate rise on hold until after the election.
I wonder what sort of methodology Roy Morgan use to come up with their 2PP numbers. For the past 15 years or so I’ve noticed that they almost always report a significantly higher ALP number than all the others polls
Good morning Freedom Boy – Goldstein looks Gawn in these numbers…
Ucomm Poll n=855, 28/4/2022 – commissioned by the Australia Institute
LNP – Tim Wilson – 33 (-20 on 2019)
IND – Zoe Daniel – 33
ALP – 12.6
GRN – 7.7
UAP – 3.2
ONP – 1.8
LDP – 1.9
Undecided – 6.3
When the poll asked Goldstein voters whether an “independent”, if elected, should support the Coalition to form government with Scott Morrison as prime minister, 38.9 per cent agreed.
This compares with 37.1 per cent who agreed the “independent” should help Labor form government with Anthony Albanese as prime minister.
A Liberal official described the poll’s findings as “absurdly low” for Mr Wilson.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/poll-points-to-tight-contest-in-goldstein-between-wilson-and-daniel-20220502-p5ahp4
Freya Stark, as a conservative you obviously know that the Governor General is considered to have an obligation to refuse any request for a fresh dissolution within about six months of a poll, and would need to have clear and certain evidence that a parliament literally refused to work together before he could permit one in the next several months after that. Those who put themselves forward for election have an obligation to work together with the representatives the Australian select. Parliament is chosen by the people; the government cannot keep going back to the people just because they served an answer the government didn’t like.
And it’s not as if a Labor/Teal coalition doesn’t have an agenda it could work on. They have some differences of opinion, but every matter of central concern to one group is a matter of some concern to the other. They would have a personal interest to work together in order to have any credibility in the electorate. Beyond that, having just run an election, the winners will be tired and short of money. On top of that, Australian parties are accustomed to working together and compromising. You cannot get a bill through parliament without discussing it with the opposition, independents or minor parties. So they will hardly be giving anything up; it means discussing with ten centrist independents instead of three.
So if the prime minister went up to the governor general and asked for a rerun, the governor general would have no choice but to invite the leader of the opposition in for tea and biscuits. A prime minister who says “you should dissolve the House of Representatives a month after it first met because it won’t listen to me and I don’t think it’ll listen to the other mob” is a prime minister admitting they doesn’t have the very thing that makes their advice persuasive.
So why do you keep coming up with this incredible idea of a snap rerun? It just isn’t going to happen.
More on the chicken story…
The Chair of the IPA comments on Ms Deves…
Interest rates on home loans are about to increase today if the RBA has any sense and Scomo is concerned about his cooking skills being called into question. Shows you where his priorities are, nowhere.
ALP increases its lead over the L-NP as Government Confidence drops 8pts after higher than expected ABS inflation increases upward pressure on interest rates.
Primary support for the L-NP was down 0.5% points to 35% this week and is now level with the ALP which remains unchanged, also on 35%.
Importantly, there was an increase in support for the Greens, up 1% point to 13%, which helped power the gain for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.
Other minor parties lost support this week with support for One Nation down 1.5% points to 3% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party down 0.5% points to 1%. Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 3.5% while support for Independents increased 1.5% points to 9.5%.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8957-roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-may-2022-202205021115
Nice to see the Venus-Jupiter show is still spectacular in the eastern sky.
It’s Labor’s to loose from here.
It seems the lib/nats combined primary vote is stuck around 36% , if that occurs on may 21 2022
The federal election will be called for Labor very early in the night
No mention of 4 Cornes exposure of government corruption in MSM…
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 6:07 am
Good morning Freedom Boy – Goldstein looks Gawn in these numbers…
Ucomm Poll n=855, 28/4/2022 – commissioned by the Australia Institute
Not-A-Lib plurality at 2:1 in Goldstein. The Reactionary Racket is falling to bits.
Rocket Rocket @ #21 Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 – 6:36 am
I caught the show this morning eating breakfast on the balcony. Simply stunning with the beautiful golden sunrise slowly emerging behind them.
Sceptic
“ No mention of 4 Cornes exposure of government corruption in MSM…”
Amazing really considering they’re supposedly NEWS media. Or are they? After all, they’ve long seemed like Lib Party apologist’s spreadsheets hiding behind a facade of news. As things worsen for the Libs, perhaps the facade is dropping.
Lose Lars, not loose.
Anyway as you well know elections are not won by oppositions, they are lost by incumbents when more people than not decide the Government has gone well past its use-by date and need to be turfed out. Keating, Howard and Rudd can attest to that history.
Either the polls are wrong again and we end up with egg on our faces again or they are fortunately in line with the minds of enough voters to swing enough seats away from Morrison’s mob. It’s really that simple. I don’t think Morrison can win this election, but I don’t vote for everyone else.
Another day, another non-political Herald-Sun cover. They have given up.
Ditto for Daily Telegraph.
Very small bit on rates on Adelaide Advertiser.
Palaszczuk main story on cover of Courier-Mail but about Olympics.
If we weren’t in the middle of an election there would be no question about raising interest rates. How then can it not be a political statement if this doesn’t happen?
Rates were raised during the 2007 election , how then can Paul Bloxam (HSBC chief economist) claim logic saying that it would be too political to make the same decision in 2022?
It’s very possible this UComms poll of Goldstein has been mentioned- apparently from the AFR. If so apologies. The summary is from another site. A Tally Room contributor estimated a 2PP for Zoe Daniels of 55+
“The UComms poll of 855 residents was commissioned by a progressive think tank, The Australia Institute, and conducted on Wednesday night last week. It has a margin of error of 3.34 per cent and was assisted polling, meaning each candidate and their party was named in the question.
Mr Wilson’s primary vote was 33 per cent, which is 20 points lower than his vote at the 2019 election, and Ms Daniel’s primary vote was 33.1 per cent.
Labor’s Martyn Abbott polled 12.6 per cent, the Greens candidate Alana Galli-McRostie was on 7.7 per cent, the United Australia Party was on 3.2 per cent, One Nation 1.8 per cent and the Liberal Democrats were on 1.9 per cent.
Another 6.3 per cent of voters were undecided. If these are excluded, then Mr Wilson and Ms Daniels’ primary vote is 35.2 per cent.”
Cronus
A non-decision by RBA today will actually be damaging, as it will force them to go harder and faster after the election. So the question is – are the RBA board prepared to do real economic damage to Australia just to provide political cover for Scott Morrison? If the answer to that question is yes – the next question is – what is your purpose and charter?
Rocket Rocket @ #32 Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 – 7:04 am
And why do you still have as job Reserve Bank Governor and Board?
max
If Tim Wilson is about to pay for his incredibly deceitful campaign in 2019 on franking credits that would be pure justice.
C@t
Absolutely. The RBA will get a lot more coverage if they DON’T raise rates today, and not in a good way.
And now off to work with renewed hope that we are headed for change in 18 days.
Felix the Cassowary made an interesting observation last thread:
I don’t think we should be despairing. The reason for malaise in Australia is the media, but they’ve jumped the shark. Think, an entire city-wide newspaper devoting their frontpage to a reelection campaign of a single electorate. I don’t think they can shift opinions like they could a decade ago because it’s obvious they aren’t neutral.
So it led me to think…just how many voters in the seat of Warringah read or take any notice of The Daily Telegraph anyway? Or is it more the case that that media outlet is broadcasting to the wider electorate?
Also, I think it’s extremely relevant but the question doesn’t seem to have been asked yet, as to whether Katherine Deves is religious or not and is that the basis from which her ideas spring?
Ha ha!
Russians plunder $5M farm vehicles from Ukraine — to find they’ve been remotely disabled
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/01/europe/russia-farm-vehicles-ukraine-disabled-melitopol-intl/index.html
Rocket Rocket @ #35 Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 – 7:09 am
Safe travels, Rocket Rocket. 🙂
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 6:57 am
Palaszczuk main story on cover of Courier-Mail but about Olympics.
—
That’s right. How dare she bring her ‘boyfriend’ to an official event? Scandalous!
Also, who over the age of 16 refers to their partner (married or otherwise) as boyfriend/girlfriend? Very juvenile of the Courier Mail.
It’s budget day in Victoria today. Expect to see the Herald Sun and their Lib mates try and land some hits on Dan and Tim Pallas.
the Greens (Goldstein) candidate Alana Galli-McRostie
Lol. 🙄
Cronus @ #30 Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 – 6:59 am
Because he’s being political by saying that. It serves the purposes of the Coalition to say it, so it has to be.
I’m seeing some pretty effective ALP ads on TV reminding everybody of Morrison’s failings. Maybe if they had have changed leaders ( who would you pick though?) they could have presented a new chapter but still been able to push the better economic manager baloney. Over the next few weeks Labor will bombard us with the choice material Scomoe himself is responsible for, does any Liberal diehard really think he can withstand this and actually peg back a big deficit in the polls? Only thing the Libs can take small comfort in is Qld , but living here I can’t see to many gains for them and can see a few losses Ryan, Longman, Brisbane look very hard to hang onto. Bowman, Petrie and Flynn in the crosshairs as well.
Spinal Tap drummer Ric Parnell dies aged 70
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/may/02/ric-parnell-spinal-tap-drummer-dies
Prince planet says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 7:17 am
Brisbane look very hard to hang onto
—
You can’t account for the stupid.
Last night on 730, they did a profile on Brisbane. Spoke with the Lib member, and both the Labor and Greens challengers. Then did a walk around some market. This one woman said her vote would go to the party that prioritised the environment and climate action, then admitted she’d be voting Liberal. OK sweetheart …
What on EARTH in going on in Qld? The state polling is all over the place. I live here and it’s as reliable as a ScoMo in a natural disaster! :/
There is nothing left in the tank for the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units
Notice how Lars always says “it’s Labor’s to lose”, never “Labor should win”? Cunning negative association exercise from Lars.
I don’t know, I think Scott Morrison’s chicken curry was cooked. Like the economy!
Boom tish! 😀
(But there are some underdone bits, to be sure.)
Lars is a very sleazy character, Quiet Australian.