Another two new polls have come down the chute overnight, one being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll as reported by The Guardian. Labor is at 49% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, up two on a fortnight ago, and the Coalition at 45%, down one, with the remainder undecided. The primary votes have the Coalition down one to 36%, Labor steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 4%, One Nation steady on 3% and undecided down a point to 6%.
The Guardian’s report also reports that the four most salient elections were deemed to be cost of living, improving public services, job security and climate change, respectively rated as important by 79%, 69%, 60% and 54%, with Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of them, respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%. The poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.
The Guardian reports the sample was 1500, whereas the pollster’s sample sizes have hitherto been between 1000 and 1100. It was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Saturday. Further clarification will be provided when the pollster publishes full results and a methodology statement on its website later today.
The other poll is the weekly Roy Morgan, which finds Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5, arresting a generally downward trend for Labor from a peak of 58-42 in mid-March. Both major parties are at 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down half a point and Labor steady. The Greens are up a point to 13%, One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 3% and the United Australia Party is down half a point to 1%. This would translate to about 54-46 based on 2019 election preference flows.
The regular state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (out from 55-45, a swing of about 8%), 63.5-36.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 10.5%), 62.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of around 12%) and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 56.5-43.5 in Queensland (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 2%) and 51-49 in Western Australia (in from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%). Sub-sample sizes are such that all of these should be treated with caution, but the pollster’s readings for the two largest states are consistently at odds with the much tighter race expected by both sides. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1487.