Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45; Roy Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor

Two more data points to suggest that the early campaign momentum to the Coalition is not being maintained.

Another two new polls have come down the chute overnight, one being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll as reported by The Guardian. Labor is at 49% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, up two on a fortnight ago, and the Coalition at 45%, down one, with the remainder undecided. The primary votes have the Coalition down one to 36%, Labor steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 4%, One Nation steady on 3% and undecided down a point to 6%.

The Guardian’s report also reports that the four most salient elections were deemed to be cost of living, improving public services, job security and climate change, respectively rated as important by 79%, 69%, 60% and 54%, with Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of them, respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%. The poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.

The Guardian reports the sample was 1500, whereas the pollster’s sample sizes have hitherto been between 1000 and 1100. It was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Saturday. Further clarification will be provided when the pollster publishes full results and a methodology statement on its website later today.

The other poll is the weekly Roy Morgan, which finds Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5, arresting a generally downward trend for Labor from a peak of 58-42 in mid-March. Both major parties are at 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down half a point and Labor steady. The Greens are up a point to 13%, One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 3% and the United Australia Party is down half a point to 1%. This would translate to about 54-46 based on 2019 election preference flows.

The regular state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (out from 55-45, a swing of about 8%), 63.5-36.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 10.5%), 62.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of around 12%) and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 56.5-43.5 in Queensland (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 2%) and 51-49 in Western Australia (in from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%). Sub-sample sizes are such that all of these should be treated with caution, but the pollster’s readings for the two largest states are consistently at odds with the much tighter race expected by both sides. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1487.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45; Roy Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor”

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  1. walleed is okay but seems a lot different on project then on radio the project seems to act like private melberne school students was good until hughes left similar to steve price who protendid to act as a modderit liberal on projectand on 2gb yet when he had his segment with bolt protendid to be alan jones

  2. mcdonald is worse though says evry night how good pm is because of his campaign skills can not work out weather project is triying to be greens or turnbull style libs mcdonald tries to be hard like david speers who he seems to look up to even pvo was better at least leca willkonson is progresive similar to fordim 2gb a strong suporter of gay marige but turned anti trans gender when took over breakfast in to a abott mouth pease

  3. southsays:
    Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:33 pm
    Imagine if Labor was going to an election and China had just signed a security pact with a close pacific neighbor to everyone’s suprise, and then the RBA raises rates for the first time in 11 years.

    I mean, that would be the end. Like all hail our new blue overlords.

    It’s going to be amazing seeing how this shakes out on the 21st. But I feel like Albo’s probably going to win, probably with a bit of ease.

    Good for Albo. I hope team Labor is workshoping shifting blame about rates to scomo, or better yet Lowe. Because that “I will take responsibility” line may sting in the future.

    It will sting big time in the future like it is stinging Biden.
    If ALP win the coming election then it will face challenges probably worse than what Hawke government faced when they took office for the first time.
    This country is on decline on many fronts.

  4. ParkySPsays:
    Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:40 pm
    So went back in on The Project tonight. Hamish MacDonald now embedded with Labor for a few days.

    He contrasted the very tightly held nature of the Morrison press bus down to not answering the question but also not allowing any follow up.

    He compared it to the much looser Albanese bus that allowed longer questioning but with Albanese bringing in others of his team.

    The contrast and compare was not done favourably. Done very much with a sneer of how poorly run that is.

    I’m biased beyond all belief but I’m grateful that Albo is showing himself off as a manager of his managers (Prime Minister of Ministers is the role description isn’t it still?).

    His throw back to Waleed contained a sneering comment in reply from Waleed.

    The whole piece and exchange left me with the despair that these two intelligent, critical thinking media performers have sold out to a glib marketing campaign. It makes me quite sad that their level of critique has fallen to a level of marketing and nothing else.

    If the polls are correct, people are ahead of these household names so I’m hanging onto that and May 21.

    According to Resolve Poll, in NSW the LNP is at 31%PV but the Nats are steady on their vote (i.e. 4%).
    My query is why is BCFing party not challenging Nats this time around like last time especially with buffoonery of Joyce? Are there any high profile Indies in Nats seats across NSW?

  5. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 10:19 pm
    Goll you’re right. Morrison and Howard are bookends of the most corrupt era the Coalition have ever had. What Malcolm Fraser did to Gough Whitlam was evil but those other two are a whole other level of wrong

    That we are not counting Abbott or McMahon is a feather in a cap of Morrison.

  6. yabbasays:
    Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 10:14 pm
    Hiding in plain sight. Clever little fellow

    That is what a lot of Republican and LNP supporters did for a long time until they were emboldened to come out in full glare due to systemic bullshitting of voters by their leaders.

  7. Blue blood Liberal voters in traditional blue ribbon seats like Wentworth, Warringah, North Sydney and even Bradfield (sorry for the Sydney centric focus) lament the “boganisation” of the Liberal Party under Abbott and Morrison. Now I have nothing against bogans in general, but in my experience the right-wing variety tend to be horrible people and make me feel ashamed to be an Australian, and it is little wonder voters in highly-educated, sophisticated metropolitan seats are looking elsewhere.

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