Another two new polls have come down the chute overnight, one being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll as reported by The Guardian. Labor is at 49% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, up two on a fortnight ago, and the Coalition at 45%, down one, with the remainder undecided. The primary votes have the Coalition down one to 36%, Labor steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 4%, One Nation steady on 3% and undecided down a point to 6%.
The Guardian’s report also reports that the four most salient elections were deemed to be cost of living, improving public services, job security and climate change, respectively rated as important by 79%, 69%, 60% and 54%, with Labor favoured over the Coalition on each of them, respectively by 40% to 30%, 44% to 26%, 38% to 29% and 40% to 21%. The poll also finds 41% believe Australia is heading in the right direction compared with 43% for the wrong direction, whereas the respective results were 46% and 37% a fortnight ago.
The Guardian reports the sample was 1500, whereas the pollster’s sample sizes have hitherto been between 1000 and 1100. It was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Saturday. Further clarification will be provided when the pollster publishes full results and a methodology statement on its website later today.
The other poll is the weekly Roy Morgan, which finds Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5, arresting a generally downward trend for Labor from a peak of 58-42 in mid-March. Both major parties are at 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down half a point and Labor steady. The Greens are up a point to 13%, One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 3% and the United Australia Party is down half a point to 1%. This would translate to about 54-46 based on 2019 election preference flows.
The regular state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56-44 in New South Wales (out from 55-45, a swing of about 8%), 63.5-36.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 10.5%), 62.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of around 12%) and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 56.5-43.5 in Queensland (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 2%) and 51-49 in Western Australia (in from 54.5-45.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%). Sub-sample sizes are such that all of these should be treated with caution, but the pollster’s readings for the two largest states are consistently at odds with the much tighter race expected by both sides. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1487.
Pi says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 8:38 pm
Thanks UpNorth. I’ll be here all week.
中华人民共和国
And next cobber. Don’t let me down.
“It is a pity that Shoebridge did not know the difference between handguns and longarms when he carried on about the licenceing laws a few years ago.”
I remember a Shooters MP goading Shoebridge in the NSW Parliament as the “socialist from Woollahra”. I presume this was due to his NSW Greens factional alignment with Lee Rhiannon. IMO he is an old fashioned metropolitan social democrat. I’m pretty sure he was a member of the Australian Democrats in this younger days, correct me if I’m wrong.
UpNorth,
I suppose it was just the way you told it!
Shifting goalposts aside, I do think the Laborite online-pile-on is a thing and is no way to win votes from soft Green voters. In my case, after watching an unhealthy amount of friendlyjordies, I was starting to buy into the argument that this election in particular, it’s either a Labor majority or the lying nasties back im 3 years. But I got caught up in an Online Pile-on on Facebook, whole thing left a pretty bad Labor flavoured taste in mouth. No votes exactly ‘lost’ in this case, but it is all part of the calculus for me.
Another tedious round of the boring Labor vs Greens war, always flares up when it’s a quiet night otherwise on the polling front.
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 8:42 pm
UpNorth,
I suppose it was just the way you told it!
中华人民共和国
Unlike SfM I reckon I’m like Washington. I just can’t lie. But hey my conscience is clear. Imagine that grub Morrison on his death bed. All the lies he told. Karma is a bitch
Upnorth says:
Unlike SfM I reckon I’m like Washington. I just can’t lie. But hey my conscience is clear. Imagine that grub Morrison on his death bed. All the lies he told. Karma is a bitch
_________________
Ralph Waldo Emerson — ‘The louder he talked of his honor, the faster we counted our spoons.’
yabba @ Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 8:27 pm
“Chambers Liqueur Muscat. Nectar of the gods.”
I do like a drop of that as well. But I think I prefer the muscadelle, previously known as tokay. Very willing to improve the precision of my decision though 🙂
Well, the nastiest people I ever dealt with on line were indie supporters.
It’s what happens when you upset cultists.
zoomster says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 8:56 pm
Well, the nastiest people I ever dealt with on line were indie supporters.
_______
I bet they shifted lots of goalposts.
Nath
These flashbacks you’re receiving after the re-ignition tonight, are they a lifelong malady ?
Something like those poor sods taking to the drink after being exposed to war I suppose.
Goll, as usual I am struggling to make sense of your comments.
By popular demand, Shoebridge in action…
UpNorth,
I read the other day that Scott and Jenny intend to go the Evangelist TV route post politics.
Apparently, their business model is to become Australia’s version of Jim and Tammy Baker.
https://greens.org.au/campaigns/legalise-it
Did Shoe-Bridge have a hyphenectomy ?
Good to see the ABC young guns on News 24 explaining the result of interest rates going up & these lucky ones that locked in fixed rates for a couple of years saving the pain ( for now) etc &how the good side was rise in savings rates…. I guess they got that prediction 100% wrong.. lesson for the ABC stick with mature reporters that are cynical, wise & have memory of the past
Hahaha, shoe-bridge!!
@Commentariat Uprising
Funny you talk about Labor supporters insulting others. I had about 50 Greens pile on me last night on Adam Bandts Twitter page when I reminded them they voted against Climate Change Action twice in 2009. They did not take kindly to it at all. All sorts of insults flung around. I always try to play the ball first.
Not denying that Labor supporters dish it out but no one has clean hands in this regard. Things seem a lot more civil here which is really enjoyable.
Federal Election 2022: Greens launch legalise cannabis campaign in Nimbin
Greens senate candidate David Shoebridge braved a small crowd at the steps of Nimbin town hall on Monday to launch his party’s legalise cannabis policy for the upcoming federal election.
With just under three weeks before the nation decides, each party is making the most of what analysts have described as the crucial phase of the campaign.
“One of the reasons we are raising the issue now in a federal election campaign is that we’ve seen the efforts to legalise cannabis stalling at a state level,” Mr Shoebridge said.
He described the current laws governing cannabis as a “criminalisation regime” that ensnare our youth in the criminal justice system on petty possession charges.
“If we really want to deal with harm minimisation when it comes to cannabis we should be legalising it so young people’s lives aren’t being so badly impacted,” Mr Shoebridge said.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/lismore/federal-election-2022-greens-launch-legalise-cannabis-campaign-in-nimbin/news-story/d577c9a15eeaaa8566c9ddaa6a4e41f2
Will Sarah Hanson-Young-Oquist mount a challenge to the Greens leadership now she’s double hyphenated ?
Legalise canabis – great idea, the government can tax it and control the quality..
One of the more bizarre propaganda takes from the murdoch gutter media.
The shadow housing minister fielding questions about their housing policy in a press conference.
”
Evan Parsonssays:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 8:44 pm
Another tedious round of the boring Labor vs Greens war, always flares up when it’s a quiet night otherwise on the polling front.
”
We can’t have polling every day to avoid Labor vs Greens war , can we?. It is up to us to walk away from that irrespective of circumstances.
If there is a current affairs issue where Greens deliberately misrepresented Labor or vice a versa then it is a different matter
What are the odds of the Australian Democrats making a come back? Natasha Stott Despoja was talking about how the democrats were going to be a majority within a decade on the century of the first parliament in May 2001. But how quickly they then fell; you could tell they were a spent force the moment they ran the 19 year old one legged bisexual who meet the pope in 2004 for the senate in Victoria.
They could do a foursome with Brian and Bobbie Houston who are both unemployed at the moment.
I reflected upon the argument over the minutiae of the past that was had today, again, and I couldn’t help but think of this:
There will be time to murder and create,
And time for all the works and days of hands
That lift and drop a question on your plate;
Time for you and time for me,
And time yet for a hundred indecisions,
And for a hundred visions and revisions,
Before the taking of a toast and tea.
And would it have been worth it, after all,
After the cups, the marmalade, the tea,
Among the porcelain, among some talk of you and me,
Would it have been worth while,
To have bitten off the matter with a smile,
To have squeezed the universe into a ball
To roll it towards some overwhelming question,
To say: “I am Lazarus, come from the dead,
Come back to tell you all, I shall tell you all”—
If one, settling a pillow by her head
Should say: “That is not what I meant at all;
That is not it, at all.”
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poetrymagazine/poems/44212/the-love-song-of-j-alfred-prufrock
Guys, the tired old CPRS argument is spoon counting. That’s all it is. Get over it. And yourselves.
Could it be the lnp and their supporters in the media are panicking?
I wonder what the internal polling is telling them.
citizen @ #1027 Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022 – 9:13 pm
Jen better watch out then.
Morrison often quotes money spent on programs which sounds nice until you see they are over a 10 year period. Maybe Labor should start quoting rate rises not how much it will cost you extra over a month but rather how much it will cost you over a 3 year period.
[Ancientsays: Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:19 pm
Morrison often quotes money spent on programs which sounds nice until you see they are over a 10 year period. Maybe Labor should start quoting rate rises not how much it will cost you extra over a month but rather how much it will cost you over a 3 year period.]
How dare labor use the lnp’s own tactics against them – the lnp are the only party who can run scare campaigns….
Is SHY really adding Oquist to her name? That would make her SHYO and would take forever to sign her name.
In Victoria, it is not legal to name a child with more than two hyphens and only one per name unless approved by the register. Plus there will be no Princes, Dukes or Justices in Victoria either.
Going by what a money making, manipulative , hypocritical place that Hillsong is, I reckon the SfM plan will be to throw his good buddy mento further under the bus and take control of it.
The ideal place for him, makes $100s of millions, preach to the converted all day long, spin and lies and nobody would dare call him out and get treated like a miracle worker, oh and can blame the “ungodly” for his exit from politics.
B.S. Fairman says:
you could tell they were a spent force the moment they ran the 19 year old one legged bisexual who meet the pope in 2004 for the senate in Victoria.
__________
What did it for you? her age, disability, sexuality or the pope meeting?
For any fellow defence tragics who may be around, I have been reading up a Turkish idea that may be a way to help the RAN achieve the A2/AD concept Andrew Earlwood discussed previously in a quicker and more affordable fashion. It does not require any more ships. The idea is to fit out the RAN LPDs Canberra and Adelaide so that they could be used as “drone carriers” when required.
The Turkish navy has been already doing this with its new LPD, the Anadolu. The Anadolu is a sister ship of the Canberra and Adelaide. So the RAN could do it too.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/will-turkey-modify-its-future-lhd-to-carry-more-uavs/
The drones (UAVs) used would be the new TB3, a naval version of the Bayraktar TB2, being used with great effect by Ukrainian forces now. The TB3 is half the weight of a naval helicopter (e.g. SH60) so it cannot carry Tomahawks or anything similar. But it has very long endurance (27 hrs) and range (4000km) and could act as an AEW and recon asset for an RAN naval squadron if the RAAF were too far away. They are also cheap (you could buy 10 for an F35) and don’t require trained pilots.
If modified to link in with other RAN ships and aircraft, they could supply the data to fire LR SSMs without risking pilots and planes. This concept would not turn the LPDs into full aircraft carriers. The TB3s could not shoot down jet fighters for example. But they could allow the RAN to better link together and use their existing ships and subs for a modest cost. This would cost a few hundred million $, not the billions most defence projects attract. their weight and fuel requirements are modest, so there would not need to be significant modifications to the ships either.
The Turks also have a larger drone, the Akinci, which has a range of 7000km. It could search the entire Indian Ocean. They cost $20 million each, so you could still get 5 for a single F35.
I think Labor would be well advised to look at off-the-shelf examples of these new technologies to better fit out Defence. The small Turkish drones are less fancy than the ones the RAAF normally buys; the Bayraktar TB2s have been described as model planes powered by lawnmower engines. But that can be an advantage too. Their low IR and radar signature makes them very difficult to shoot down, as the Russian navy found out.
Despite Dutton cancelling our UAV order (why???) virtually every navy in NATO is looking at helicopter or fixed wing drones to cheaply increase naval reconnaissance capability. Most of them are cheaper than the missiles that can shoot them down.
“Is SHY really adding Oquist to her name? That would make her SHYO and would take forever to sign her name.”
***
I don’t think so, though it’s not something I’ve investigated lol. SHY was actually born just Sarah Hanson, picked up the name Young from her first marriage, and then decided to keep it after getting divorced. I would have too! SHY has a nice ring to it.
“Griffsays:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 8:56 pm
yabba @ Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 8:27 pm
“Chambers Liqueur Muscat. Nectar of the gods.”
I do like a drop of that as well. But I think I prefer the muscadelle, previously known as tokay. Very willing to improve the precision of my decision though ”
LIQUID FRUITCAKE
The Democrats survived for years by sounding conservatively but aggressively non threatening and unlikely to make a decision. Sort of an active standing sstill model of politics. They ruined all that by supporting the GST and were gone like last weeks pay in no time.
Imagine if Labor was going to an election and China had just signed a security pact with a close pacific neighbor to everyone’s suprise, and then the RBA raises rates for the first time in 11 years.
I mean, that would be the end. Like all hail our new blue overlords.
It’s going to be amazing seeing how this shakes out on the 21st. But I feel like Albo’s probably going to win, probably with a bit of ease.
Good for Albo. I hope team Labor is workshoping shifting blame about rates to scomo, or better yet Lowe. Because that “I will take responsibility” line may sting in the future.
Nath – The fact that they were starting to become a joke and Greg Chipp, son of founder Don, was beaten in the pre-selection. They PCed themselves into not being taken seriously.
She would probably be the right mix in the current market to get the totally woke vote but I think they might have been ahead of their time.
@Rex Douglas
Just slowly catching up on the comments of the day. Just saw your comment re “Threads”. That movie is beyond messed up. I remember watching it on VHS as a dare 20 years ago. Only time I’ve ever wanted to physically throw up after a movie.
Des Devlin
Yes, it is a common problem with Twitter and its demographics. Ironically, while far right combativeness is also extremely common, relatively little comes out of the Libs as they have the weakest online presence in this campaign by far.
At some point in a future campaign the parties will have to deal with it officially with some sort of code of conduct, if nothing else just to minimize the threat of such things going viral. Badly behaved supporters are already a big part of the “gotcha” outrage cycle and that’s only going to get worse with the amount of media training the actual politicians get these days.
GG – That is the story which is told but post approving the GST in 2001 the Democrats still managed to win 4 senate seats (QLD, WA, Vic, SA). So basically it is a myth that the GST approval did them in.
What really did them in was the infighting that occurred after 2001 as whether they should continue to play the centre or to move to the left and compete with the Greens.
So went back in on The Project tonight. Hamish MacDonald now embedded with Labor for a few days.
He contrasted the very tightly held nature of the Morrison press bus down to not answering the question but also not allowing any follow up.
He compared it to the much looser Albanese bus that allowed longer questioning but with Albanese bringing in others of his team.
The contrast and compare was not done favourably. Done very much with a sneer of how poorly run that is.
I’m biased beyond all belief but I’m grateful that Albo is showing himself off as a manager of his managers (Prime Minister of Ministers is the role description isn’t it still?).
His throw back to Waleed contained a sneering comment in reply from Waleed.
The whole piece and exchange left me with the despair that these two intelligent, critical thinking media performers have sold out to a glib marketing campaign. It makes me quite sad that their level of critique has fallen to a level of marketing and nothing else.
If the polls are correct, people are ahead of these household names so I’m hanging onto that and May 21.
Labor are favourites in 78 seats Coalition 65 others 8
Labor are very narrow favourites 1.75 + in four of those seats Longman,Gilmore, Bass, Braddon.
Tories are narrow favourites in Robertson,Nicholls and Hasluck. Teals narrow favourites in Wentworth and Goldstein.
Morrison and Frydenberg will go down in history as the worst PM and Treasurer who left a Trillion dollar debt and destroyed Australias relations with our most important economic partner, China, resulting in the loss of billions of dollars of exports .
Don’t think Rachel Withers is impressed.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2022/05/03/undercooked
Firefox says:
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 9:28 pm
“Is SHY really adding Oquist to her name? That would make her SHYO and would take forever to sign her name.”
***
I don’t think so, though it’s not something I’ve investigated lol. SHY was actually born just Sarah Hanson, picked up the name Young from her first marriage, and then decided to keep it after getting divorced. I would have too! SHY has a nice ring to it.
中华人民共和国
For a Green my oath bloke. You guys keep at at it hey. Sometimes I feel a bit sorry for youse. All then Hyphens. Do you have to sign your name each branch meeting?
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-coal-coalition-what-if-the-majors-cut-their-own-deal-stranger-things-have-happened/
… this get some PB discussion?
Sounds like Libs lite/ Fibs/ Nats, same same.
National unity, vested interests (of merchant kings/ warlords) stranded assets …