This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
From Josh Butler
Jo Dyer, running as an Independent for Boothby, says she’s got confirmation that the renunciation of her British citizenship was processed in February – “rendering her eligible to continue her campaign”
Does this guy need a heart starter every day!?! He certainly gets into the jungle juice with enthusiasm early in the day.
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He’s in Tasmania. so a visit to a cider factory is on the cards.
Implied probability of winning from betfair.com “Type of government formed”
April-30 (previous week in brackets)
Liberal majority: 15% (25%)
Liberal minority: 13% (18%)
Labor minority: 27% (20%)
Labor majority: 45% (37%)
Expected number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 6.0 (4.3)
MOE (95% CI): 11.0 (13.9)
We are very aware of the influence the Chinese government appears to have in this Country
9 Entertainment headline
So all who do not vote for this government are under the influence of the Chinese government
Perhaps this government can deport anyone who does not vote for them – using the Port of Darwin as the embarkation point en route to China?
And here was me thinking that the great victory in Vietnam stopped Australia from falling into the hands of the yellow peril
Now the Chinese are here and we don’t know where they are
Some government, hey?
Back to trans politics
On the ground in Kooyong, the Ryan camp seems to much happier than the Liberals who seem almost sullen. Huge numbers of Corflutes for Ryan out there, lots of Josh real estate type signs too but no where near as numerous (although much larger).
Margo Kingston…
Also, the Qld-wide LNP preference swap with One Nation raises the spectre of a revolt by liberal voters in Brisbane, as in the 1998 Qld election. Howard reversed course to out ON last at 1998 #ausvotes .
Paul Fletcher would make a fine replacement for Morrison. Bullshitman Two.
A House of Reps election within 12 months of a general election would not have to mean a half senate. It could be just a case of bringing the whole general election forward. Hawke did that in December 1984 to avoid a half senate election which had to be held before July 1985 but the House of Reps was not due until early 1986.
Nicholas says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:27 am
The current inflation is caused by supply chain disruptions arising from the war in Ukraine and from COVID, combined with cartel-type arrangements that give firms in some sectors too much power to raise prices. Policy interventions need to focus on those things….’
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You left out the stupendous money supply growth over the past couple of years.
sprocket_ @ #153 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 11:27 am
Not to mention the Climate Change conscious voters in SE Queensland who would view Matt Canavan’s comments about Net Zero by 2050 being dead as a dodo with disgust.
Paul Fletcher would make a fine replacement for a pot plant.
Evan @ 9.26,
Why does Labor romp home at state level in QLD, but fail miserably at federal level?
i) Qld is an inherently conservative place chock full of retirees who demand coddling and attention. AP did that wonderfully well last state election with her Covid restrictions.
ii) The place is full of hi-viz workers in assorted carbon industries who refuse to change jobs or retrain for renewable industries.
iii) The reason for this is that the progressive side of politics has been abysmal at explaining, convincing or persuading these workers of the benefits of transitioning from time-limited old carbon industries to sunrise renewable industries with unlimited futures.
iv) Bob Brown ought to be facing justice in Den Haag for his ‘crime’ of leading the Stop Adani Convoy in 2019. He may well have permanently pissed off a whole generation of voters from progressive politics. What we need is quiet persuasion by respected locals of the benefits of change – not preached to from on high by city-based zealots with no local roots.
v) Labor has been successful at state level due to two factors. First, Qld’s state Labor is the best conservative state govt in the nation (OK, I exaggerate) with the elderly onside, the hi-viz workforce at least neutralised and plenty of development projects to satisfy most people. Second, the LNP has been in a continual state of civil war since Joh’s demise. When the Ls merged with the Ns, it didn’t improve their marital relations. Labor just has to manage itself and leave the LNP to self-sabotage.
Finally, if I was Albo, I would come to Qld with a long list of development projects that include roads, a raft of renewable energy schemes and – crucially – dams. Qlders love to have their dreams and imaginations stimulated with projects that parallel with varieties of the old Bradfield Scheme. Bob Katter’s dam proposal should not be condemned – modified maybe, but never condemn a development project in Qld. Dams per se are no bad thing after due diligence is carried out. Choose the right dam project in the right location, consult traditional landholders and hope to Christ that the local environmentalists have a degree of common sense and … voila. We have jobs during constuction, and after it we have hydro, irrigation and drinking water for new towns. Sounds simple.
I trust that the Palmer and Bandt housing policy people get together!
3% cap in interest rates! That is like… free houses!
Drongo: thank you, you answered my question about Qld very comprehensibly.
Deborah Snow in the Nine papers with a pretty balanced piece on Albanese today and the campaign, Peter Hartcher emphasising how Morrison has fallen down in the two areas that the Liberals and the media always assert are their strengths, economic management and national security.
There was some chatter about Ryan earlier.
I had a look on social media at Peter Cossar’s Facebook page, he’s the Labor candidate – seems very enthusiastic, Rudd launched his campaign and that of Madonna Jarrett in Brisbane last weekend, has had some shadow ministers in the electorate etc.
Drongo – the greens vote in qld increased at the last election. The labor vote went down. Don’t blame the greens for labor’s terrible sales job.
Queenslanders want politicians who have a coherent climate plan – see State labor, state greens and federal greens.
Federal labor lost the last election because they allowed sfm to run scare campaigns on negative gearing, death taxes, capital gains etc.
The truly massive biggie will be if the initial signs of climate change impact affecting monsoons becomes an increasing trend thing. It will kill a lot of people.
One wonders whether Modi will persist with his stated intention of boosting coal burning in India?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-30/south-asian-heatwave/101027906
Raining Treasures:
Lovers of the fantastic indie music of the late 70s/early 80s wrap your ears around 2BL or catch up with the Sonic Journey app on ABC radio.
Raining Treasures is also the name of a wonderful 2 volume collection of this fantastic music, collected and collated by John Kennedy of the ‘Love Gone Wrong” band.
Listening to loved songs my wife and I haven’t heard for a long, long time – from when the House of JJJs
actually championed and played GREAT music – before they became a pseudo west LA rap rubbish staton.
Katherine Murphy’s piece in The Guardian today i think nails it 100%
For all Paul Fletcher’s unappeal, he’s a moderate. As much as i want to see the Libs cop a beating, i have mixed feelings about their seat losses just concentrating the parliamentary party in the hands of the extreme right factions… its that lot who will inevitably get the reins of power back again one day, possibly sooner than one might hope given the direction of the world economy over the next 3 years
@fess, 10:20am:
“ During the Howard government era women in the Liberal party were known as Howard Pot Plants. Always standing silent, unmoving in the corner. Mere room decorations, nothing more. Definitely never to be considered as minister material.
Not much has changed in the 20 years since except greater lip service is now given to the coalition’s women, and they are strategically moved into position when needed beyond being mere accessories to the old, white men.”
Marise Payne is more ‘the silent forest’, than mere ‘pot plant’ such is the magnificence of her vast inertness.
the rest of them have evolved from potted plants to professional crumb collectors. Progress! LNP style.
Boerwar @ #164 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 11:42 am
He’s certainly taking advantage of the cheap prices Putin is offering him for fossil fuels now.
Voice endeavour says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:41 am
Drongo – the greens vote increased at the last election. The labor vote went down. Don’t blame the greens for labor’s terrible sales job.
Queenslanders want politicians….’
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I know this is difficult for the Greens to get their heads around. The actual fact of the matter is that around 90% of Queenslanders do not want the Greens. I blame the terrible sales job of the Greens for that massive failure. Naturally, this does not stop the Greens from explaining to other parties where THEY went wrong. The Greens Hive Mind is a buzzing nest of cognitive dissonance, is it not?
Drongo
“ Mr Katter, a long-term advocate for both and key federal crossbench figure, criticised the proposed dam height as too low to allow it to gravity-feed water west into the broader scheme. While not wishing to condemn Mr Morrison for being “led down the garden path” by bureaucrats, Mr Katter said the proposal “actually destroys the future and potential of the region”.
Doesn’t seem like Katter is convinced about Morrison’s dam.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-mulls-bradfield-scheme-report-as-minister-damns-pm-s-pledge-20220323-p5a76z.html
Is this fair dinkum? I thought Kooyong was a salubrious electorate?
spr
Lots and lots of ugly in that photo. It all congeals into some sort of dystopian vision run by a guy who is completely out of his depth.
Drongo
“ The reason for this is that the progressive side of politics has been abysmal at explaining, convincing or persuading these workers of the benefits of transitioning from time-limited old carbon industries to sunrise renewable industries with unlimited futures.”
Seems like there must surely be an element of responsibility on individuals to educate themselves if only to a small degree. I’d say the information has been out there for decades now but certain individuals are simply in denial. They can’t be helped and over time, accordingly, they’ll be dragged into the 21st century or through ignorance, put themselves out to pasture. Evolve or die.
“ Doesn’t seem like Katter is convinced about Morrison’s dam.”
I cant think of a single thing more calculated to completely fuck what’s left of the eastern half of continental Australia than the fucking Bradfield Scheme. So, let’s hope Labor scraps Morrison’s dam, then quietly shanks the larger proposal in due course.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:47 am
Is this fair dinkum? I thought Kooyong was a salubrious electorate?
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That’s just an old building/hotel on Kew Junction. The houses nearby are worth millions.
Cronus says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:47 am
Drongo
“ Mr Katter, a long-term advocate for both and key federal crossbench figure, criticised the proposed dam height as too low to allow it to gravity-feed water west into the broader scheme. While not wishing to condemn Mr Morrison for being “led down the garden path” by bureaucrats, Mr Katter said the proposal “actually destroys the future and potential of the region”.
Doesn’t seem like Katter is convinced about Morrison’s dam.
….’
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Katter would have some mates who would benefit from the extended reach of the gravity feed should they lift the head. The sleeve tuggers are queuing up for a massive subsidy and are squabbling about the length of the queue.
Just noticed Sportsbet in by 30 cents or so for LNP, is this the $10 PBS effect?
Kew Junction is a very busy intersection. Building is likely to sold for apartments for the hard of hearing.
This is nearby on Kew Junction. The lovely Cenotaph and the old Kew Post Office.
Why are we elevating Fletcher when Morrison is not dead yet?
Boerwar: Scomo on life support and coffin measured.
Just getting ready.
From the Courier Mail
“Prime Minister Scott Morrison has fired another shot at China saying it ‘has form’ interfering with Australian politics.”
Does he mean Gladys Liu?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gladys-liu-s-beijing-confession-deepens-dispute-over-loyalty-20190911-p52qec.html
Evan says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:41 am
There was some chatter about Ryan earlier.
I had a look on social media at Peter Cossar’s Facebook page, he’s the Labor candidate – seems very enthusiastic, Rudd launched his campaign and that of Madonna Jarrett in Brisbane last weekend, has had some shadow ministers in the electorate etc.
I used to be in bands with Peter in the 80s. He’s a deadset legend and one of the loveliest people around. Very passionate about the arts. I really hope he gets over the line in Ryan. He’d be an excellent parliamentarian.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:55 am
Boerwar: Scomo on life support and coffin measured.
Just getting ready.’
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Tempting fate is not my cup of tea.
Three more weeks to go. Until we either get some mild relief or descend further into madness.
Around the corner from Kew junction, the lovely Alexandra Gardens. Edwardian Splendor:
Cronus @ #181 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 11:56 am
Bit of a problem that whenever he tries to fire a salvo at Labor wrt China it bounces off Gladys Liu back in his face.
‘Trump grand jury ending in N.Y. with no charges against ex-president .. a six-month grand jury that was convened late last year to hear evidence against Donald Trump was set to expire this week, closing a chapter in a lengthy criminal investigation that appears to be fizzling out without charges against the former president, people familiar with matter said’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/29/trump-grand-jury-over/
Boerwar,
By that measure Bludger Track shows that 63% of Australians do not want Labor.
I note how all your photos are silent, nath. 😐
From Sheridan in the Oz
“ Diplomatically, the Morrison government has responded to the China challenge effectively, brilliantly. Inexplicably, it has not responded militarily at all.”
I must’ve missed the effective and brilliant diplomacy, probably because China have already already the Solomon Islands so I was distracted.
Boerwar at 11.57am
“Tempting fate is not my cup of tea.”
+1
Holdenhillbilly, you need to walk outside (now!), turn around three times and sprinkle a pinch of salt over your left shoulder, for you have tempted the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing, and this is the standard remedy.
‘It’s literally slower than watching Australia drift north’: the laboratory experiment that will outlive us all
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/apr/30/its-literally-slower-than-watching-australia-drift-north-the-laboratory-experiment-that-will-outlive-us-all?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
There were some comments in the Mike Seccombe article in BK’s wonderful daily news digest which caught my eye. A study shows that Australians born from 1980 onwards are likely to have centre-left political views-this is said to come from higher education levels relative to older cohorts, and more engagement with social media. But what I really liked is the comment that Australians born post-1980 show no signs of becoming more conservative as they age, unlike those born earlier.
As we all know, the LNP vote is much stronger in the elderly, particularly in the over-75’s. But it’s been assumed that as people age, they become more conservative, and many flip from centre-left to right with their vote. So as more than half a million mainly LNP voters disappear from the electoral roll every cycle because they’ve passed on, the ranks of LNP voters are replenished with younger converts from other parties. But how true is that? Is it changing? The study referred to in the Mike Seccombe article suggests that it is. I guess analysis of the results from the upcoming election will shed more light on that.
Also great to read that LNP loses in Qld may extend to more than Longman. Morrison’s campaign schedule suggests he does have problems up north. If the LNP do in fact drop several seats in Qld, it’s game over.
Nearby Kew Junction. This is Raheen, the seat of House Pratt, where Littlefinger held a fundraiser in 2019 which looked more like a coronation. But it wasn’t.
ii) The place is full of hi-viz workers in assorted carbon industries who refuse to change jobs or retrain for renewable industries.
And not one person has mentioned the real reason As the Independent Labor Mayor of Townsville told a group of us, when she asked the coal miners why they don’t switch to Renewable Energy jobs they say it’s because the Renewable Energy jobs only pay about 1/4 of what they make as miners.
They have bills to pay.
C@T
It’s as though he walks into his own trap every time D’oh. Or is he being racist? I can’t keep up.