This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
Does this sound like Morrison to Bludgers?
From Offspring’s song “Pretty Fly for a White Guy”
“ You know it’s kinda hard just to get along today
Our subject isn’t cool but he fakes it anyway
He may not have a clue and he may not have style
But everything he lacks well he makes up in denial”
Griff says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:34 am
It is easier to speak about who will be the next Labor leader. Why? Because we all buy into the assumption that the likely candidates will retain their seats.
Probabilistically speaking, we should be considering who would be the next leader of the Coalition
In my murky crystal ball….Following the wholesale demolition of the Liberal Party, the rump Nationals will comprise the largest unified grouping of Reactionaries and they will succeed in having Barnaby Joyce elected as LOTO.
The official opposition will barely out-number the Lite, who will react to their electoral success by fusing to form a new small-l liberal outfit, which in turn will set out to wrest seats from the Lying Reactionaries at State elections due in Victoria and NSW. When they succeed in this, remnants of the Liberal Past will seek to join the new outfit, which will become the largest non-Labor college in the House. A new LOTO will emerge, a woman most likely, from among the Lite who succeeded in NSW, Victoria or Western Australia.
The Lying Reactionaries will soon after vote to join a merged ON/ UAP/National Party, which will be led by the til-then unknown Rick Wilson, the member for O’Connor and only 2022 electoral winner from the LRP in Western Australia.
No the Teals may not, but I think if it got to that point it wouldn’t be Dutton as the leader. It’d most likely be Frydenberg, assuming he retains his seat.
Women in the coalition seem to know their place with motor mouth always in the front with women mannequin s standing quietly in the background
Much appreciation BK for todays reports!
During the Howard government era women in the Liberal party were known as Howard Pot Plants. Always standing silent, unmoving in the corner. Mere room decorations, nothing more. Definitely never to be considered as minister material.
Not much has changed in the 20 years since except greater lip service is now given to the coalition’s women, and they are strategically moved into position when needed beyond being mere accessories to the old, white men.
”
BeaglieBoysays:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:21 am
Phil Coorey:……Scott Morrison is also an amalgam of Liberal leaders that went before him……He has the stupidity and bigotry of Abbott, The arrogance and shallowness of Turnbull, and the bastardry and mendacity of Howard, the ruthlessness and coldbloodedness of Fraser. But he also has new traits never seen in any Australian leader before…..an inbuilt desire for absolute control bordering on autocracy and a Trumpian will to own his own party body and soul.
”
Touche’
Confessions @ #22 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 6:38 am
This is an act of extreme bastardry at the behest of the Big Pharma/Pharmacy Guild donors to the Fucking Spiv Parties. It, alone, is justification for excising anyone who supports these vandels from one’s compassion.
I teach pharmacology at a UNSW Rural Clinical School. The NPS MedicineWise program is a critical resource that underlies the informed & rational use of medicines (particularly new treatments for cancer and infections) available for non-teaching hospital doctors (which is most of them). It is the only directly federally funded universal drug information system left in Australia that is not manipulable by the for-profit US Pharma spivs. Time for the tumbrels.
Morrison has nothing but contempt for the Parliament itself. This is remarkable. Prime Ministers owe their power to the Parliament. Without the Parliament, they are nothing. Yet Morrison treats the Parliament with total disdain. He does not deserve to sit in it, let alone to lead it.
Bludging @ Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:56 am
Fantastic! 🙂
Do tell what will happen in the Senate, please? In the meantime the song for my housework will be:
“Oh Ricky, you’re so fine
You’re so fine, you blow my mind
Hey Ricky, hey Ricky”
Evan,
Here are some basic reasons for the ALP bombing at federal level, but not at state level, in Qld.
i) This is a thoroughly conservative state with lots of retirees from down south. They MUST be coddled and made to feel safe. AP did that wonderfully well at the last state election.
ii) Lots of hi-viz workers in carbon-related industries who don’t want to change jobs or retrain.
iii) The poor efforts by the progressive side of politics to sell the need to transition from carbon to renewables. Bob Brown ought to be facing justice in Den Haag for his utterly stupid Stop Adani Convoy that could have turned a whole generation away from progressive politics. We need soft-selling persuaders, not aloof preachers, with arguments extolling the benefits of new technologies.
iv) Why does the ALP continue to cream the LNP at state level? That’s a combination of the best LNP state government in the land in the form of state Labor under AP (OK, I exaggerate) and the time-honoured dissension between trendy city-based Libs and ratbag rightwing Nats in the regions. It’s been that way since the demise of Joh and the L and N ‘merger’ hasn’t made a scrap of difference. Labor just has to fan the flames of dissent and they win every time – especially in the regions.
Qlders love stories that excite the imagination – such as varieties of the Bradfield scheme. If I was Albo, I would promise a truckload of renewable projects, but also some dams. There’s nothing wrong with dams per se if they promise jobs during construction, hydro after it and irrigation and drinking water to new towns. Just choose your location wisely, consult with traditional owners and hope that you have environmentalists that can see reason. That’s easy to say, not so easy to achieve.
rhwombat:
Definitely the behest of multinational pharmaceuticals. Why else would they bury the move at the 11th hour?
Total act of bastardry!
Thank you for that massive effort BK.
And on Labor leadership speculation, there are only two certainties:
1. It will be used as a dead cat distraction by Labor’s enemies everywhere and at any time.
2. The “best” leader for the Labor Party will be someone who is not currently the leader.
rhwombat @ Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:06 am
Labor would do well with an early commitment to address this one. The ACSQHC don’t have the capability to step in to fill the gap. At least not yet.
Chalmers and Oniel would be a great succession after Albos two terms
Sets up a nice post politics job for Hunt? What a C!
Go Asha, I hope all your great efforts are rewarded in Ryan…..If Ryan falls then Albo can definately pack his bags for The Lodge
Confessions @ Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:11 am
There was no official warning. But I happen to know there was significant internal angst pre-budget. With good cause as it turned out.
Jack the Insider @JacktheInsider
Crackernomics from the UAP on their 3 per cent ceiling for housing loans. Imagine a party leader not understanding the basics of a cornerstone policy. Onya’ Craig.
Holdenhillbilly at 8.50am
“Scott Morrison was social services minister when the scheme was conceived, but has denied personal responsibility for the disaster.”
This is a truly multi-purpose sentence, simply by changing the term ‘social services minister’ to, for example, ‘Tourism Australia boss’ or ‘Prime Minister’.
May well apply to Morrison’s entire career everywhere.
Scott Morrison has responded to reports of a senior cabinet minister earning $426,000 a year pushing for a pay rise.
WA MP Ken Wyatt – who earns $7109 a week as the Minister Indigenous Australians – believes we are not paying politicians enough.
At a time many Australians are struggling to pay bills or put food on the table, Mr Wyatt believes it is politicians who need a boost.
Four years ago, Mr Wyatt said he wasn’t sure what he earned, but in order to attract quality candidates, taxpayers needed to pay MPs more money.
When approached by The Australian this week, after soaring cost of living prices pushed inflation to 5.1 per cent, Mr Wyatt did not back down from his stance.
“His comments were in relation to the decision he took to enter parliament, and the fact he earned more as a public servant (as director, Aboriginal Health, for Western Australia’s Department of Health) than as a backbencher,” a spokesperson told the newspaper.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/simply-false-scott-morrison-nixes-pay-rises-for-politicians/news-story/5c8920773fb8220854585f9be366a971
“Morrison says it’s ‘hypocritical’ for Labor to criticise robodebt”
How many royal commissions did we have into pink batts?
They should hold a royal commission into work for the dole as well.
The current inflation is caused by supply chain disruptions arising from the war in Ukraine and from COVID, combined with cartel-type arrangements that give firms in some sectors too much power to raise prices. Policy interventions need to focus on those things. Fiscal policy and regulatory policy are the relevant tools, not monetary policy.
Consumers are not spending too much. Workers are not being paid too much. Reducing people’s spending power by forcing them to pay higher interest on their loans would be an idiotic move in this context.
The federal government is not spending too much. There are still 550,000 unemployed and 860,000 under-employed – a long way from full employment. Fiscal austerity is completely unsuited to what is happening today.
Mobilize and develop our domestic capacity to produce essential goods: food, fuel, electricity, medical supplies, construction materials. Reduce our reliance on imports of the basic things that people can’t do without. Make buildings a lot more energy efficient, invest in grid-scale renewable power, phase out petrol and diesel-fueled vehicles.
Stabilize land prices by phasing out the policies that encourage the hoarding of land. Increase the supply of public housing. Set up a program that builds new homes for first home buyers only. That would address the supply side of housing and would actually help, instead of the demand-side program we currently have (the completely ineffectual first home buyers’ grant, which provides no net benefit to the buyer because it simply inflates the price).
Cronus:
I was thinking a different Offspring song: You’re Gonna Go Far, Kid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql9-82oV2JE
These UK Tories just can’t stay out of trouble 🙂
‘Tory MP Jamie Wallis is CHARGED with driving offences after failing to stop after a crash which cut off a village’s Wi-Fi .. has been charged with failing to stop after crashing his Mercedes at around 1.10am on November 28 last year .. also been charged with failing to report the crash, driving without due care and attention and leaving a vehicle in a dangerous position’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10763003/Transgender-Tory-MP-Jamie-Wallis-CHARGED-driving-offences-failing-stop-crash.html
“Coalition the better economic manager? Pull the other one. My column today.”
Pvo in the australian…
Griff says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:09 am
Bludging @ Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:56 am
🙂
Cheers Griff. I will consult the auguries on the Senate. I may need to make an offering to Apollo first.
Confessions @ #96 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 9:52 am
Paul Fletcher.
Nicholas says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:27 am
I agree. I really hope the RBA does not decide now is the right time to impose monetary ‘discipline’ on the labour force. If the RBA becomes hawkish, their power to set rates should be curtailed. Having said that, it would be great if the labour force were expanded. This would add significantly to the productive capacity of the economy.
rhwombat @ #125 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:35 am
I think the cupboard has more charisma.
Ray (UK) @ #122 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:31 am
Sounds like a UAP candidate. 😆
“Scott Morrison is not aware of an alleged 2020 phone call from former High Court Judge Ian Callinan in which he advocated for his daughter Fiona Meagher to become president of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. Ms Meagher confirmed to the role earlier this month.”
I wonder how much more will come out – are the wheels about to fall off?
Scomo is also being asked about robodebt – blaming labor of course
Mobilize and develop our domestic capacity to produce essential goods: food, fuel, electricity, medical supplies, construction materials. Reduce our reliance on imports of the basic things that people can’t do without. Make buildings a lot more energy efficient, invest in grid-scale renewable power, phase out petrol and diesel-fueled vehicles.
Sounds like Labor policy to me. 😐
Woke-pc-thug @ #129 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:38 am
Scott Morrison is the most unaware control freak Prime Minister we’ve ever had. 😐
Thanks BK
I’d like to take this opportunity to blow my denomination’s trumpet a little on a couple of issues…
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/aged-care-head-backs-25-per-cent-wage-rise-in-fight-for-gender-equality-20220429-p5ah46.html
Uniting Care is an umbrella for Uniting Church community services, which are not-for-profit and supports 25% aged care wage increases.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/from-faith-to-fear-churches-put-to-the-test-20220429-p5ah4u.html
Three decades ago, in response to some badly handled situations within its own life, the Uniting Church set up a commission to address things such as sexual ‘misconduct.’ That commission developed the first set of procedures of any denomination in the country. Other denominations later approached the Uniting Church, seeking assistance in writing their own procedures.
A decade ago, the royal commission into institutional responses to child sexual abuse showed many institutions had failed those given into their care. I was in a Uniting Church regional leadership role at the time and remember being briefed on how the denomination would approach the rc with a perspective of openness. Most parts of the Uniting Church did that. Some organisations (Uniting Church or outside it) continued to try to ‘protect’ their own reputation. When revelations were made at the rc, their reputations were worsened by the attempted self-protection.
Anyway, I think one thing the broader Uniting Church offers to the community is a determination to listen to the needs of people.
C@tmomma @ #127 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:36 am
Agreed, but Fletcher has less repulsion (ie negative charisma) than any of the other pot plants – which is all the Spivocracy require from their condoms.
A song to blow Katherine Deves’ tiny mind:
https://youtu.be/vPzDTfIb0DU
From the point of view of the cross benchers hypothetically holding the balance of power, there is some benefit to having a weaker leader of the government. A weak leader is unlikely to charge off to another election and is therefore more likely to bend to their demands. A stronger leader is likely to be more popular and more likely to call a bluff.
I wonder what Albo’s response will be when the jackols of the MSM screech at him, “Why are you afraid to debate the Prime Minister this Sunday” or “What are you hiding from” and “why didn’t you front the media yesterday”.
My response would be this, “I’m more than happy to debate Mr Morrison wherever, whenever. I’m happy to have a debate on Sunday, let’s do it, as you know the majority of the audience at the last debate gave me the points for that one, which was very kind of them. I can’t do the proposed debate next Thursday as I have a long standing commitment. Unlike Mr Morrison, I keep my promises.
I’m more than happy to have a debate on channel 7 but we should also have a debate on the national broadcaster. So let’s arrange that too.
I would also say to Mr Morrison, in the interests of informing the public, there should be public debates in the following critical areas with the government minister and the relevant labor spokesperson; Health, Aged Care, Climate Change, Energy, treasury, foreign relations and Infrastructure. Will Mr Morrison agree to these debates as well?”
rhwombat at 10.06am
“Fucking Spiv Parties”
So, if we had ‘truth in political party names’ laws, this would be required for the Coalition?
Asha
I was listening to Offspring in the gym this morning. I was actually singing along to “You’re gonna go far Kid” as well, how did I miss that? How apt are those songs?
> I think the cupboard has more charisma.
Who do you think has more charisma? The cupboard is fairly limited. Some of the better performers are senators which would be basically unprecedented and really difficult to get into a lower house seat (When Gorton did it, it wasn’t a hung parliament and seat had been freed up by Holt himself).
C@T
“ Paul Fletcher. I think the cupboard has more charisma.”
I’ll pay that one.
Good photo op you say?
What could go wrong? ScoMo having a shot of Lark Single Malt Whiskey – will go down well with the bogan aspirational male demographic he is courting.
So why grant $4.5m of taxpayers money to the distillery? The part owner, Bruce Mathieson, is a billionaire – and has made a motza from related industries.
And he has been a big donor the Liberal Party over the years – something for the FICAC perhaps?
Bruce Mathieson operated his poker machine and pub empire Australian Liquor and Hospitality in a joint venture with supermarket giant Woolworths. Mathieson is now a minority shareholder in the listed Endeavour Group, which holds both the Australian Liquor assets and Woolworth’s extensive liquor retailing business.
https://www.forbes.com/profile/bruce-mathieson/?sh=69db7f4c3617#:~:text=Bruce%20Mathieson%20operated%20his%20poker,Woolworth's%20extensive%20liquor%20retailing%20business.
And you know the cupboard is extremely limited when you hear talk of Dan Tehan being a possible leader!
B. S. Fairman, no Australian prime minister will ever charge off to an election over the House of Representatives.
The cost of separate half Senate elections are just too great, both politically and financially (an early House of Reps election means there will be a separate half Senate election, unless the government agrees to an election after a year or so). The cost of a double dissolution is also significant politically, since unless you’re really lucky and you can do what Turnbull did, it means at least one if not two shortened terms and a lower quota in the Senate. Australian prime minister are accustomed to not getting their way legislatively; notice that there’s no real Australian equivalent of a UK manifesto, and if there was it would be completely meaningless because they can’t get it through the Senate.
In any case, what defines a strong leader?
Nicholas at 10.27am
Your analysis would suggest we are seeing ‘cost-push’ inflation (problems with global supply chains pushing up prices etc) rather than ‘demand-pull’ inflation (higher discretionary spending by consumers competing for goods and services enabling sellers to increase prices).
I suspect resolving this will take some time – e.g. encouraging local production involves some lead time.
Will the electorate have enough patience with a govt (not Coalition!) leading in this direction?
Adam Bandt trying to save his leadership?
B.S. Fairman @ #139 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 11:01 am
If you want my honest answer, it has to be Frydenburg. He’s learned his, fake it till you make it, lessons well. Fwiw, I don’t think he’ll lose his seat, as much as he really should.
Does this guy need a heart starter every day!?! He certainly gets into the jungle juice with enthusiasm early in the day.