Federal election minus three weeks

More how-to-vote card news, more internal polling rumours, more candidate hassles, more nonsense from One Nation.

This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.

Miscellaneous news:

• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.

• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.

• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.

• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.

• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

794 comments on “Federal election minus three weeks”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  1. 3 weeks out and the NSW, VIC and QLD Murdoch tabloids on their biggest selling Saturday edition are absent political hit jobs on Labor.

    The Daily ToiletPaper front page has a NRL player in a hospital bed.
    The Herald Sun has gangland weapons.
    The Courier Mail has a Steve Irwin photo.

    Something is going on here.

  2. Evan

    I thought Chalmers and Clare were both terrific. So was Penny Wong. I thought the Labor front bench actually demonstrated its depth, and completely demolished the “inexperienced” line of attack.

    By comparison, look how many Liberal Ministers were muzzled with Scomo handling all the questions and non-answers. Payne saying nothing about the Solomon Islands was a case in point.

  3. Personally not a fan of Clare.

    He bats for the right team, but there’s parts of Morrison I see in him which I do not like.

    Wong/Chalmers/Plibersek are my picks for the ALP once Albo goes.

  4. I expect Clare or Chalmers will get the nod after the election if the alp loses or when albo retires if they win.

    Is the country ready for another female leader or a leader who is of another race or sexuality?

    So scomo gives 4.5 million to a distillery who received 600,000 in jobkeeper even though they turned a profit who then turns out to be an lnp donor….

  5. Phil Coorey:……Scott Morrison is also an amalgam of Liberal leaders that went before him……He has the stupidity and bigotry of Abbott, The arrogance and shallowness of Turnbull, and the bastardry and mendacity of Howard, the ruthlessness and coldbloodedness of Fraser. But he also has new traits never seen in any Australian leader before…..an inbuilt desire for absolute control bordering on autocracy and a Trumpian will to own his own party body and soul.

  6. A reminder on the great pretender…

    It wasn’t the introduction that made me strangle a laugh: it was his look. And the look was pure Tom Selleck from the TV show Magnum, PI: red Hawaiian shirt unbuttoned to reveal a wispy covering of hair, like a weed-strewn lawn; stonewashed jeans painfully tight and worn high; and feet bedecked in shiny white tennis shoes. On his head sat a Detroit Tigers baseball cap. The moustache was flimsy.


    Come election night Morrison will revert to the real nobody he always was

  7. Freya Starksays:
    Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 5:26 am
    Oliver: it doesn’t hurt them so much in Brisbane. Even the inner city in Brisbane is more conservative than most of urban Adelaide, Perth and Hobart, not to mention Sydney or Melbourne.

    I have lived in inner Brisbane for some years and this is borne out in my observations.

    Seriously though you make up crap don’t you?

  8. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 5:58 am
    Oh, and just noticed that the field in Ryan includes one Damian Coory, running for the Liberal Democrats (sic).

    That’s a name I seem to remember as a former presenter on ABC Local Radio. But surely that can’t be right: everyone at the ABC is a loony leftie, aren’t they?

    Even ABC journalists like Coorey have to put food on the their dinning table.
    And it appears only journalists have to put food on their dining tables. it appears journalists appear to think Punters like us feast on ‘thin air ‘.

  9. Great article sprocket_ and this should worry the lnp long term:
    “One is that people born since 1980 are not only “very strongly centre left” compared with previous generations, probably because of their high rates of tertiary education and connections through social media, but also more likely to carry their progressive politics into middle age.”

    Most people 50 and under don’t like what the lnp stand for…

  10. One Nation faces an Australian Electoral Commission investigation after suggesting Labor might use fraud to win next month’s election.

    The AEC said it was “disappointed” in the latest skit by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.

    Released on Friday, the Please Explain skit features Penny Wong offering fake postal ballots to COVID-hit Labor leader Anthony Albanese.


  11. sprocket_ @ #50 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:12 am

    3 weeks out and the NSW, VIC and QLD Murdoch tabloids on their biggest selling Saturday edition are absent political hit jobs on Labor.

    The Daily ToiletPaper front page has a NRL player in a hospital bed.
    The Herald Sun has gangland weapons.
    The Courier Mail has a Steve Irwin photo.

    Something is going on here.

    Murdoch prefers to be seen as backing a winner even more than backing his favourite. If it’s obvious Slomo is gone, there’ll be an election day editorial saying, more in sorrow than joy, to vote ALP. That way he can still project the image of kingmaker.

  12. Lars Von Triersays:
    Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 6:26 am
    Special commendation to Ollie for early shift efforts!

    Look who is talking! 🙂

  13. Dr Doolittlesays:
    Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 4:10 am
    Reported Qld polling suggests Labor would probably gain a Senate seat at expense of LNP = Stoker or Hanson.

    Bonham noted on 15 April that Labor needs swing of 2% from LNP or 2.8% from Hanson, who would probably lose to Stoker if her vote drops to level of 2020 Qld state election results.

    Hanson is Australia’s Le Pen, i.e. Putin apologist, but she may be gone before Putin loses face as protests against occupation of southern Ukraine increase.

    Dr. D
    Can you post more regularly and post on each seat if possible?

  14. Stephen Mutch is a NSW Liberal identity, former MP…

    Following the recent preselection debacle in NSW, where democratic preselections were denied to party members, the position of many in the Liberal Party is one of frustration, even anger. Some party members are accused of wanting the party to lose the federal election, refusing to staff polling booths. They hope that if the Morrison government is sent into opposition, party members can regroup, refresh and reinstate internal democracy. Party elders, hoping to circumvent this revolt from within, are calling for loyalty and promising root-and-branch reform, yet again, after the election. From history, these are siren songs to string along the gullible.

    My own view is that the Liberal Party in NSW is irredeemable and the federal Morrison government is unfit to hold office. The latter assessment is based specifically on the question of government integrity. The few instances of potentially dodgy behaviour over contracts and tendering highlighted in the media are very much the tip of the iceberg and the gaming of democratic preselections in NSW speaks for itself. The government has offered a “take it or leave it” integrity agency that is both hiding in plain sight and missing in action.


  15. Labor would launch a royal commission into the Robodebt scheme if it won government to find out who was responsible for implementing the discredited program.

    The automated matching of tax and Centrelink data to raise debts against welfare recipients, for money the coalition government claimed to have overpaid, was ruled unlawful in 2019.

    A $1.2 billion settlement between Robodebt victims and the federal government was reached in 2020.

    But the Morrison government has never detailed who was accountable for the four-year scheme, and which ministers knew about its problems.

    Scott Morrison was social services minister when the scheme was conceived, but has denied personal responsibility for the disaster.


  16. Confessionssays:
    Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 7:02 am
    The Age@theage
    The federal government had to refund millions in debts wrongly collected from 381,000 people, as well as settle a class action case. #robodebt #auspol

    If the RC eventuates, you can just imagine the stories that it will uncover.

    This is the worst government in living memory

    Worse than McMahon government because McMahon government had inflation, debt and deficit under control.
    So if this government is worse than McMahon government then someone has to come up with than that.

  17. Anyone remember the Rudd2000 Twitter account? Aaron Newton reminds me of that, just without the humour.

    What is it with apparently pro-Labor people’s fascination with post-Albo speculation? Do they think this kind of leadershit revival schtick is funny? Lessons of the past, anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

    Maybe they need to hang that 2013 Liberal corflute of Gillard and Rudd kissing with the single word ‘Remember’ above their monitors.

  18. Oliver Sutton

    “ In fairness, Cronus, the environment / climate change has been overtaken by the understandable flare-up in ‘cost of living’ as a concern.”

    Agree entirely. My concern is that when CC is a high priority then people are more likely to vote left but when the economy/cost of living becomes the priority it seems that historically, the risk is that more people are likely to lean back towards the right (regardless of the myths).

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I TOLD you it would be a monster! Enjoy.

    “A prime minister who cannot credibly explain how he’ll deal with a cost of living crisis is a prime minister asking for the sack”, begins Peter Hartcher in this contribution which points out that the Coalition has been served its dream campaign issues, national security and the economy, and is failing to deliver
    Paul Bongiorno reckons everything is going up, except Morrison’s chances.
    Deborah Snow has been travelling with Albanese and provides an interesting insight to his campaign and how it reacted to him getting Covid.
    Hamish Hastie tells us why Anthony Albanese is launching Labor’s election campaign in Perth.
    Stephen Mutch declares that, at this point, the Coalition government is unfit for office. (Mutch is a retired lawyer and academic. He is a former Liberal member of the New South Wales Legislative Council and a former member for the federal seat of Cook.)
    Team Albo held the fort for a week, maybe too well, says Phil Coorey.
    John Hewson makes the valid point that Morrison is focussing on the economy at the expense of workers. He concludes this critical article with, “Unfortunately, the reality is that there is no effective succession plan within the party. Many who otherwise might have risen through the ranks have been discouraged, both within the party or from seeking preselection. It is sad that an election defeat will be what it takes to recalibrate the party, its leadership and its policies.”
    “It’s not all about the economy, Mr Morrison. What about jobs?”, says John Lord.
    There’s a lot that’s wrong with the language of politics, but there’s a tired and tedious term we need to dispense with right away: Hung parliaments. Australia might be just weeks away from getting a House of Representatives that reflects the true breadth of our opinions and ideals, and yet we’re being conditioned to feel we will have failed on election day if it comes about, writes Bruce Guthrie.
    The next week is crucial for Albanese as he returns from isolation says Michelle Grattan.
    Katherine Murphy reckons that needling Albanese over his Covid workload is a sign that Morrison is starting to worry. She says the PM desperately needs to turn the spotlight back on to Albanese, so he is using playground tactics to goad his opponent into error
    At its midpoint, after a string of public holidays and with one of the leaders sidelined for seven days by Covid-19, the federal election campaign is effectively starting all over again with just three weeks to go. Still ahead in the opinion polls, but with sluggish approval ratings for its prime ministerial aspirant, Labor is staking everything on a reset, kicking off with its formal campaign launch tomorrow, writes Karen Middleton.
    “The story of Scott Morrison’s life is of events almost catching up with him. His career has been spent a few steps in front of calamity. This election is the first time his actions have pulled up parallel with his intentions. Morrison is in the find out phase.”, declares the editorial in The Saturday Paper.
    The Age’s editorial says that Albanese must step up and debate the PM.
    Shane Wright and Katina Curtis run through the things that are pushing up inflation – particularly on non-discretionary spending, something that hurts those on lower incomes disproportionately.
    In drawing up its plans for the election, Labor gave up on looking for policies to offset spending. Mike Seccombe says neither side is pretending it has a plan to pay for what it promises.
    The Greens will preference Labor ahead of Coalition candidates in every lower house electorate at the May 21 federal election, in a move likely to help Anthony Albanese’s path to The Lodge, writes Tom McIlroy in the AFR.
    The New Daily tells us how 6000 of Katherine Deves deleted tweets fractured the Liberal Party.
    Australia’s economy is now entering a new long-run cycle that will transform our policy and politics. The Reserve Bank’s effort to insist Australia could hold out from global inflation pressures is ending in dismay. There is a new world coming – its announcement was unveiled this week during election campaign 2022, writes Paul Kelly who is concerned that the danger is that whoever wins the election will lack the policy mandate and political stomach for what lies ahead.
    The cost of living is soaring, but higher interest rates won’t help, argues Ross Gittins who makes the point that in a well-managed economy, workers’ wages rise a little faster than prices. This hasn’t been happening, particularly in the past two years or so, and the government has made no attempt to rectify the problem.
    Coalition the better economic manager? Pull the other one, shouts Peter van Onselen who lays out the reasons this government isn’t a worthy flag-bearer for those that came before it.
    The AFR says the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday is expected to signal plans for multiple interest rate rises over the next few months, regardless of whether it decides to increase the cash rate at May’s meeting or waits until after the federal election.
    Chip Le Grand writes that former Treasury secretary Ken Henry has said the idea the economy is going gangbusters is a ‘false diagnosis,’ and an election contest without serious ideas is an indulgence the nation can’t afford.
    If David Peetz were the Minister for Employment in the next government these are the three priority things he would do.
    Scott Morrison’s comment last month that “the best way to support people renting a house is to help them buy a house” was seized on by some as a “let them eat cake moment”, writes Peter Hannam who says housing has become a path to wealth, but renters have been left behind.
    John Howard has been called out for his appalling and sexist language in describing the “teal” Independents as “groupies”. Surely Howard knew the negative connotations of the word “groupie” – commonly used to describe young women who follow around rock groups and celebrities to offer them sex, complains Sarah Russell.
    The price of medicines listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme will drop by $10 from July 1 under an election commitment to be unveiled by Scott Morrison today.
    Laura Tingle opines that the NDIS is a microcosm of all that’s wrong with service delivery.
    Hamish McDonald explains why, when the election dust settles, Canberra needs to undertake a thorough review of Australia’s involvement in the Pacific.
    Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare says he was blindsided by the AUKUS deal and accused Australian troops of refusing to protect Chinese-built infrastructure during riots.
    Relations between Australia and Solomon Islands have nosedived after Scott Morrison dismissed an attack on his government by Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare as being scripted by Beijing, write Phil Coorey and Michael Smith.
    Australia seeks Pacific security with the US and UK. A four-hour flight from Queensland, a nation seeks its security with China. Sounds crazy? This disjuncture has been a long time coming, writes Mark Sawyer.
    A royal commission into the robodebt scandal will begin by the end of the year if the opposition wins the May 21 election, Labor frontbencher Bill Shorten has pledged. Bring. It. On!
    Greg Sheridan says that this is a defence election campaign without defence policy or even debate. Instead, there is a disconnected set of rhetorical flourishes from the government, greeted with wry scepticism from Labor, but neither side proposing actually to do anything.
    In one of his last acts as Health minister, Greg Hunt shut down Australia’s national prescribing service. Alongside another key review, it represents a pointed, almost unnoticed attack on universal healthcare, explains Claire Connelly.
    Peter Beattie tells us how a hung parliament could save the country from toxic politics.
    Mike Foley writes that coal prices are driving the price of power and undercutting election scare campaigns over the risks from renewable energy. He says the states that burn the most black coal and use the least renewable energy, NSW and Queensland, have the highest wholesale power prices and worst future outlook while Victoria and South Australia have been shielded from the spikes.
    And surging wholesale electricity prices due to higher gas and coal prices have sparked furious lobbying by retailers for an increase in benchmark retail prices.
    No, Mr Morrison – the safeguard mechanism is not a ‘sneaky carbon tax’, argues Samantha Hepburn.
    In the lead-up to May’s Federal Election poll, Scott Morrison announced a multi-million funding pledge to support Tasmania’s forestry industry. Critics have slammed the Coalition’s ‘vote grabbing’ logging plan.
    Harriett Alexander writes that as Ben Roberts-Smith’s witnesses took to the stand this week in the marathon defamation case he has brought against The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Canberra Times, the fault lines between troops in the Special Air Service have emerged.
    Karen Middleton tells us that a review of Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan questions whether soldiers’ deaths helped strategic outcomes and calls for ongoing royal commission-like powers to prevent misconduct.
    From his isolation couch, Bevan Shields writes that we need an inquiry into the handling – good and bad – of the pandemic
    Victoria has recorded more flu cases in the past few days than the whole of last year, as influenza returns after being seen off by pandemic border closures.
    Only 35 per cent of Australians aged 18 to 64 plan on getting a flu shot this year, according to a new survey conducted by the Immunisation Coalition. This statistic has health authorities worried as a bumper flu season looms, explains Zac Credlin.
    A week wouldn’t go by without dear old Gerard having a go at the ABC. This time he’s complaining about the “soft run” the Teals are getting.
    UnitingCare Australia has become the country’s first major aged care network to explicitly back a 25 per cent wage rise for the embattled sector’s workers, calling it a historic opportunity to address the gender pay gap.
    High rents and property prices are a hot issue in the federal election, but too little attention is given to the supply side of the equation, says the SMH in calling for better planning rules.
    Rapid interest rate rises by the central bank are set to dampen a rebound in consumer demand as Covid-19 restrictions ease, driving an earlier and sharper correction in house prices, according to Westpac.
    Here’s Amanda Meade’s weekly roundup of media issues.
    Angus Thompson reports that the criminal trial of Brittany Higgins’ alleged rapist is set to go ahead in a matter of weeks after his bid to halt the trial was defeated.
    Megan Gorrey reports on yesterday’s ICAC hearings on the Canada Bay mayor and his relationship with a failed developer.
    According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, China is facing double disaster between COVID and Putin.
    Julia Baird in this contribution looks at domestic violence being over-represented within church environments.
    Ben Schneiders provides us with more details on the Scientology story he wrote about earlier in the week. Effing disgusting!
    Boris Becker was unable to return this serve as he finds himself set to jail for 2.5 years for deliberately ignoring the terms of his bankruptcy agreement.
    With the prospect of payouts for smearing the families of Sandy Hook shooting victims looming, Jones last week filed for emergency relief in federal bankruptcy court, a move called an “abuse of the bankruptcy system”. Enough her to earn him nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    And speaking of “Arsehole of the Week”, police are fighting a new bid for freedom from Eastern Freeway Porsche driver Richard Pusey, arguing communications he has made while in prison show he’s too great a risk to public safety to be released. The contents of two intercepted phone calls and a handwritten letter were delivered to a magistrate in a sealed envelope on Friday, as Sunshine Magistrates’ Court heard they were too sensitive to be read aloud.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Alan Moir

    Jon Kudelka

    Matt Golding

    Jim Pavlidis

    Fiona Katauskas

    John Shakespeare

    Peter Broelman

    Andrew Dyson

    Joe Benke

    Richard Giliberto

    Michael Leunig

    Mark Knight


    From the US

  20. Off to a community meeting with Kristy McBain this morning about local medical needs and the parlours state of our local hospital services. Mark Butler in attendance as Shadow Health Minister.
    Originally was set down for the local CWA Rooms but has been shifted to the local Services Club as the number of RSVPs has grown significantly.
    No sign as yet of the interestingly named Jeremy Knockles (LNP) in the area.

  21. OMG

    SfM is doing his presser inside my Chemist at Mowbray {Tasmania]. I thought I could smell something when I went outside this morning. He is there to re-announce his PBS cheap voter grab bag. By the way, this PBS thing won’t happen until January next year.

    Why here? Because Bass is on the line at the election and Bass has one of the highest over 65 voter ratio in the country, as does Braddon.

  22. 9 Entertainment is in hatchet mode on Albanese.

    And again, their on-line headline is “watch pm live”

    I wonder how many take up the offer?

    Then you look at the names of the contributing “journalists” – how many names are you familiar with?

    Conveying their HMV opinions

    And “focusing on the economy at the expense of workers” (Hewson)

    So focused on ideology not on the economy.

    To the expense of citizens, now feeling the pressure of right wing ideology driven politics

    Read Stiglitz.

  23. Lars Von Triersays:
    Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:05 am
    Why r u posting about this sandman ? You could have directly confronted him and become a social media meme ?

    Ah. She who will be obeyed has banned me from going anywhere near SfM . She is not keen on visiting me at Risden Prison.

  24. As alluded to by Alpha Zero in the intro the UK cartoons:

    Election Maps UK

    Neil Parish MP (Conservative, Tiverton & Honiton) has had the Conservative whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the House of Commons

  25. Thank you BK! That will keep us going all morning!

    NB:- just reminder for everyone to get their flu jab. Together with new COVID subvariants that can cause reinfections, this winter is shaping up to be a doozy.

  26. From what I’ve heard*, Ryan is looking close and it’s looking like a LNP/Labor contest, with the Greens remaining a respectable third but not making up a lot of extra ground since last time. It is now a “target seat” and has gotten a lot more resources thrown into it recently (as has neighbouring Brisbane). We have an actual campaign office now, whereas in 2019 the candidate’s office was his ute.

    Just going off of gut feeling and impressions from phone calls and door knocking, I think there will be a bit of a swing from Labor to the Greens, mainly on account of climate change and asylum seeker policies and the JobSeeker back down, but one that will probably be drowned out by a larger swing from the LNP to Labor. We’ll find out on the night if that’s enough for the seat to fall, but I’m increasingly optimistic about an upset here. (And I might add that while I would far prefer we took it, I’d happily take a Greens gain over a Liberal retain.)

    * I would note that internal polling shared with volunteers / campaign workers should be taken with the some huge grain of salt as internal polling shared with the media. In both cases, if you are hearing about it, it’s probably because the people providing the info want you to hear about it.

  27. My tips for any Labor leadership succession would be any combination of Chalmers or Plibersek for leader. If it’s Chalmers, then (surprise) Clare O’Neil for deputy. If it’s Plibersek, then Chalmers as deputy. I doubt if Plibersek will accept a deputy dawg offer after her long service.

    Having Chalmers in a leadership slot means either NSW or Vic unavoidably miss out on any leadership position, which might be a problem.

    O’Neil’s smart, presentable and has bucketfuls more charisma than Marles. The NSW alternative is the other Clare, but best not to have 2 blokes again with Chalmers and best not have 2 from Sydney with Plibersek.

    So, my dream ticket would be Chalmers-O’Neil.

  28. Sandman @ Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:00 am

    Lucky you didn’t. We just got told by Morrison that he has never treated the Australian public with disrespect. You might have been put away for a LONG time 😉

  29. More recent UK news which I haven’t seen discussed thus far:

    The Tories ‘Elections Bill’ passed the Commons and received Royal Assent this week, highlights are:

    a. Photo ID required to vote
    b. FPTP for Mayoral/Police Commissioner elections rather than the current Supplementary Vote system
    c. Tightening the rules for Postal Votes

    The Photo ID was defeated in the Lords but the Commons reinstated it

    Re the FPTP for Mayoral etc, I’ve seen on Twitter – but not verified myself – that there has not been such an election thus far where the Supplementary/2nd preferences have changed the winner from the first placed candidate on ‘primary’ votes. Obviously though it makes it easier for the Tories to win, say, the London Mayor race if the left vote is split

    The changes are not immediate, implementation dates yet to be advised

    Edit to add – the Supplementary Vote system as used in the UK


  30. Victoria :

    Victoria has recorded another 19 COVID-related deaths.

    Across the state, there were 9,064 new cases reported in the latest data period, bringing the number of active cases to 54,992.

    There are 448 people in Victorian hospitals after contracting COVID-19. Of those patients, 30 are in intensive care units and three are on ventilators.


    New South Wales :

    New South Wales has reported 20 COVID-related deaths today, with 1,623 people in hospital and 69 in intensive care.

    The state has identified 11,709 new cases, with about half via PCR testing and half via rapid antigen tests.

    Its number of new cases is almost identical to yesterday’s, when 11,903 cases were recorded, but only seven COVID-related deaths were confirmed in the state yesterday.

  31. Thanks BK for the monster parcel of news and cartoons.

    There is a constant theme among RW writers and cartoonists. They cannot deny the success of Clare, Wong et al while Albo was in Covid isolation but then use this to attack Albo as being dispensable.

    The Labor election campaign is like an aircraft where, if the pilot is temporarily indisposed, the co-pilot can take over all duties and fly the plane.

    The Liberal campaign is where the pilot demands to be the only person in the cockpit, leaving the co-pilot to wander through the plane telling the passengers how the plane should be flown.

  32. If Albanese loses, Chalmers as the next leader – pretty obvious to me, can’t be Richard Marles or Chris Bowen, Penny Wong is in the Senate so that counts her out, Tanya Plebersek obviously has had chances before to run and passed up on them. I do agree about Claire O’Neil, good performer who probably should be higher up in shadow cabinet ranks than she is currently, ditto for Jason Clare, as he’s demonstrated in the past week.
    Qld – I ask again, why can Labor at a state level win there consistently, yet federally they are seemingly so hopeless(2007 being the exception to that in recent times)? Perhaps those who live north of the border can enlighten me on that fact. If Federal Labor in 2022 can’t improve on a primary vote of 26% in Qld recorded in 2019, then what the f**k is going on? Do Queenslanders only vote Labor federally when one of their own is the leader – ie. Rudd in 2007?
    Labor’s got some good candidates this time – Matt Burnett in Flynn is a star, Madonna Jarrett in Brisbane, the candidate in Ryan has some buzz about him too, yet seemingly at best they’ll only pick up one or two seats off the LNP and at worst they’ll be worrying about retaining their existing seats.

  33. It is easier to speak about who will be the next Labor leader. Why? Because we all buy into the assumption that the likely candidates will retain their seats.

    Probabilistically speaking, we should be considering who would be the next leader of the Coalition 😉

  34. Can we instead talk about who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia!?! All else is distracting speculation.

    Hmm, let me guess… Lars von Liberal started this fol de rol off?

  35. This from Chris Kenny at the Australian

    “There can be no denying of the overall relative competence of the Coalition government in trying times.Certainly, I have my criticisms about a lack of conviction on climate and energy policy, profligate spending, reluctance to engage in the important cultural battles about education and history, and impotence in standing up to the pandemic paranoia and draconian overreach of the states”.

    Yep, a good PM would
    – abandon carbon emission targets because climate change is fake;

    – stop spending tax payers money the ‘undeserving’ and it give to more deserving (like the $4million Morrison granted a distillery company whose owner has been busted smoking Meth on video: remember him ? );

    – hook into the homophobic cultural battles and bring in the Religious Discrimination Act;

    – white out Australian history in colonial times in books and schools, and

    – ignore health advisers and take a ‘let it rip’ approach to Corona virus as soon as it landed on Australian shores and dismiss the death rate as an “unfortunate” consequence of our modern times (most of them are old so they were dying anyway).

    These are the priorities of a Right Wing Nut Job. They are getting more desperate, more shrill and more plain bonkers as the campaign forges on.

  36. C@t:

    PvO and Riminton’s podcast has an interesting discussion on the next Liberal leader.

    PvO says if it’s a hung parliament SfM may be tempted to hang around as leader in the event things fall over, but if Teals are elected, some have said they won’t back the LNP with Scotty as leader.

    If not Morrison that leaves Frydenberg and Dutton. PvO says don’t be surprised if Dutton would beat Josh in a leadership ballot. If neither of those two, the cupboard is bare. There really is no other feasible alternative.

  37. I have not seen anything about the PBS medication safety net.
    If that is not adjusted at the same time, people will still end up paying a heap for their medications.

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