This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
Coalition pledges to cut the co-payment of PBS medications by $10, returning them to levels closer to those in the 1990s.
With many elderly people on five, ten or more meds, this potentially adds up to a saving of over a thousand a year.
Is Labor toast?
I think Labor is a political party. Don’t think they’d taste good with jam spread on them.
Morning earlybirds;
I see Phil Coorey is preaching doom and gloom for ALP in Queensland, say at the start of the campaign Labor was hoping to pick up one or two seats, now “is now working to ensure there is no net loss of seats in the state.”
Is that just Phil doing what he is paid to do, or are we repeating last election…
Reported Qld polling suggests Labor would probably gain a Senate seat at expense of LNP = Stoker or Hanson.
Bonham noted on 15 April that Labor needs swing of 2% from LNP or 2.8% from Hanson, who would probably lose to Stoker if her vote drops to level of 2020 Qld state election results.
Hanson is Australia’s Le Pen, i.e. Putin apologist, but she may be gone before Putin loses face as protests against occupation of southern Ukraine increase.
Freya Stark;
My take on that $10 reducing was, LNP must be panicking, they are thrashing, so many giveaways nobody has been able to even count them all… Someone call Josh, he will know whats going on !!!
Looked up stats on QLD results in 2019 federal election;
Primary votes;
LNP: 43.7, ALP: 26.7, GRN: 10.3, PHON: 8.9, UAP: 3.5
Using IPSOS QLD poll results, the swings are
LNP: 32 (-11.7), ALP 29 (+1.3), GRN: 14 (+3.7), PHON: 5 (-3.9), UAP 4 (+0.5), OTH 8, UNKNOWN 8
So even if all the unknowns flow to LNP, they still have a swing against them on primary.
But if primaries swing to ALP, against LNP, its reasonable to assume pref will swing the same way.
I think 4 seats is doable based on IPSOS
“the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”
Greens (rather than Labor) in contention, presumably?
What’s this stuff about the Greens being more competitive than Labor in Ryan? Labor were decently ahead in 2019?
‘… it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket’
Inner-city Liberal incumbents will be praising the ever-helpful Matteo.
Oliver: it doesn’t hurt them so much in Brisbane. Even the inner city in Brisbane is more conservative than most of urban Adelaide, Perth and Hobart, not to mention Sydney or Melbourne.
I have lived in inner Brisbane for some years and this is borne out in my observations.
joeldipops, it’s true that in Ryan in 2019, Labor came out ahead of the Greens on PV (24.4 to 20.0).
In the view of one who has resided in and around Ryan for more than half a century (under a succession of Liberal MPs), its demographics make a Greens’ gain marginally plausible, a Labor gain not so much.
Freya, the inner-city Liberal incumbents were badly burned by Matteo’s previous helpful intervention (“net zero is dead”).
Engineering a #2 preference for PHON will heap coal on the fire, as it were.
Freya, Labor will be toasted on 21 May.
Put a bottle of Barossa Pearl on ice in readiness.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-life-s-essentials-climb-as-campaign-turns-on-price-pressures-20220429-p5ah5o.html
What people are forgetting is that the GST was designed to have an inflationary impact, but it came with compensation so those least able to absorb that impact were cushioned. So it isn’t exactly analogous to compare with the GST 20 years ago.
And Morrison’s and Frydenberg’s protestations that today’s inflation has nothing to do with them just reinforces Labor’s ads of SfM declaring it’s not his job to do or know.
joeldipops: just took a peek at Sportsbet FWIW (not a lot).
RYAN:
LNP $1.30
Labor $5.00
Greens $5.00
The punters market has Labor and Greens neck and neck, albeit both as long shots.
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/electorate-betting-qld-seats-6496304
Oh, and just noticed that the field in Ryan includes one Damian Coory, running for the Liberal Democrats (sic).
That’s a name I seem to remember as a former presenter on ABC Local Radio. But surely that can’t be right: everyone at the ABC is a loony leftie, aren’t they?
Peter Hartcher finally realises what has been apparent to anyone watching for some time now: coalition governments cannot manage the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-served-its-dream-campaign-issues-and-fails-to-deliver-20220429-p5ah4w.html
Freya Stark says:
“Coalition pledges to cut the co-payment of PBS medications by $10, returning them to levels closer to those in the 1990s. With many elderly people on five, ten or more meds, this potentially adds up to a saving of over a thousand a year.”
A “saving of over a thousand a year” Oh dear, Freya:
“Once you or your family spend a certain amount on PBS medicine you’ll reach the PBS Safety Net threshold. We calculate the PBS Safety Net in a calendar year. It resets at the beginning of each year, 1 January.
The 2022 PBS Safety Net threshold is:
• $326.40 for concession card holders
• $1542.10 for general patients.
Before you meet the threshold, each medicine will cost up to:
• $6.80 for concession card holders
• $42.50 for general patients.
Once you reach the threshold, you’ll need to apply for a PBS Safety Net card to get cheaper medicines.
Your medicine will then either:
be free for concession card holders
cost up to $6.80 for general patients.”
Surprised that you didn’t know that … or did you?
https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/pbs-safety-net-thresholds?context=22016
Special commendation to Ollie for early shift efforts!
Meanwhile the lnp has delisted 900 procedures from Medicare
https://www.ama.com.au/media/government-danger-history-repeating-medicare-rebate-changes
$10 per medication means nothing when everything else has gone up – the only thing people will be toasting is an end to this government.
Hey Lars, where’s mine? How about some gender equality!
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/30/greg-hunts-final-act-against-universal-healthcare/165124080013802#mtr
The Liberal and National parties will always find a way to undermine universal healthcare.
You too Freya!
If the RC eventuates, you can just imagine the stories that it will uncover.
This is the worst government in living memory.
Just trying to remember the name of the Social Services Minister who flicked the switch on Robodebt.
Scott somebody, wasn’t it?
The IPSOS Issues Monitor shows that the environment (presumably climate change) has slipped out of voters thinking as one of the key issues as it always seems to when the election rubber hits the road. For all the fires, floods and hand wringing, it will only ever be important apparently but not critical until it’s far too late.
Insiders Sunday, 1 May
David Speers joins Karen Middleton, Bridget Brennan and James Campbell to discuss the economy with inflation at 5.1%, will the RBA start to raise interest rates on Tuesday, climate wars plus Labor’s Campaign Launch in Perth.
Guests : Campaign Special – Simon Birmingham And Adam Bandt
Peoples immediate concerns will always be the largest electoral issue. This doesn’t mean parties shouldn’t have a long term approach, just something to be factored into the politics.
In fairness, Cronus, the environment / climate change has been overtaken by the understandable flare-up in ‘cost of living’ as a concern.
As ScoMo might say, “inflation has got a five in front of it”.
bug1 says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 4:09 am
Is that just Phil doing what he is paid to do, or are we repeating last election…
—
I wouldn’t worry too much about what Phil Coorey has to say. He’s been shown to be wrong so often, he’s just a Lib spokespuppet these days.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
There is a really simple solution to cost of living pressures – high inflation – no one is taking about let alone understands.
300bps of rate hikes and 0.5% of GDP fiscal tightening would do it.
More reasons why Morrison and his cronies will be sweating
Labor if elected to establish a royal commission into the unlawful Robodebt program by the end of the year
“Scott says:
“More reasons why Morrison and his cronies will be sweating”
Morrison
Tudge
Robert
plus the cold-blooded reptiles who ran Centrelink / Services Australia.
Phillip Coorey is president of the mean-media club;
“The downside is that Albanese, who often resembles a hybrid of his predecessors – the snarly Simon Crean and the prolix Kim Beazley – was shown up by younger, fresher and more articulate colleagues.” – Phillip Coorey
To think, people pay him for his words.
At this point I’m not holding out too much hope of a huge haul of seats for the ALP in Brisbane but I also see and hear no enthuiasm for Scomoe. At this stage I would say ALP in with a good chance of picking up 3 which combined with a similar number from other states would be enough. This is a conservative estimate though , my head and gut feeling is that things are not going well in LNP land Scomoe who is regarded as a bit if a shonk is a one man band but seemingly all they’ve got. If their version of Marles went down who would know? Yet you have Clare, Chalmers, Wong and now Albo has found his groove. K Rudd is in a tour of electorates and will have far more impact than the silly old Johnny . I see the ALP coming home strong in these last weeks and convincing the electorate it’s time for a change. The wheels are falling off the rickety old cart Scomoe is dragging and in this cart are Michaelia,Stuart Robert,Karen Andrew, Marise, Barnaby Joyce, Canavan. Heaven help us if I’m wrong because the next three years will be like a train disaster.
Coorey – ‘The Woman who Saved Australia’ the week before she resigned over ICAC recorded conversations with her dodgy boyfriend
The Dawn Patrol will be along in an hour or so. It’s building up to be a Saturday monster.
To snappy Tom, a few years ago I was lucky enough to ride the freccia Rossa on lake Como. It is a hydrofoil very similar to those I took to Manly in the 70s. They are really cool and Sydney lost something when they were retired. Nothing better for me than to see the good bits of the past return. I hope I live to see trams back in Brisbane but that’s a long shot.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 7:40 am
Coorey – ‘The Woman who Saved Australia’ the week before she resigned over ICAC recorded conversations with her dodgy boyfriend
—
This should be a pinned post at the top of every comments section. #neverforget
BK
Thanks in advance
The article preceding Gladys’s resignation was the AFR Power rankings, which put the state premiers as #1. Gladys was on the front page.
“The Woman Who Saved Australia” was in April 2021, well before that.
The Saturday Paper editorial cuts to the chase…
The story of Scott Morrison’s life is of events almost catching up with him. His career has been spent a few steps in front of calamity. This election is the first time his actions have pulled up parallel with his intentions. Morrison is in the find out phase.
Probably it was Chaucer who first recorded in print the idea of deeds coming home to roost: as a bryd that retorneth agayn to his owene nest. The phrase perfectly describes the campaign.
……… (a potted history of ScoMo’s previous sackings and bastardry)
This might be the first job Morrison has held that he wants to keep. It is not clear what he will do if he loses this election. As with Tony Abbott after politics, there is doubt the boardrooms of Australia would open to him. If he were to stay in parliament, he would be in the middle of a terrible fight started by his attempt to wrest control of the New South Wales Liberal Party. In the words of one player, it would be a bloodbath.
One reason this election has been so grim is because it is not about what happens next. It is about what happens when you stop and the whole past clatters into you. It is less a vision and more a comeuppance.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2022/04/30/the-running-man/165124080013803
Phil Coorey, known as Scott Morrison’s glove puppet.
If Qld apparently is so safe for the Libs, what was Morrison doing in seats like Capricornia and Dawson earlier this week?
I’d take a 1 seat gain is QLD. Should be enough elsewhere.
But I think there will be 2 – Brisbane and Longman
Qld will be no good for the lib/nats if they are losing and not gaining seats elsewhere across Australia
Thank you for the fact check on the timeline, mimhoff.
So we’re back to doom and gloom today simply because of a column Phil ‘Organ Grinder’s Monkey’ Coorey wrote?
Push past it chaps!
Sky News awarded Week 3 of the campaign to Jim Chalmers, for those who keep score on those things.
Dr Chalmers and Jason Clare, both very effective at getting a message across
While we are waiting for BK – here’s UK Cartoons (major stories include Tory MP accused of watching porn on his phone in the Commons):
No suprises as to who Dave Brown has gone to here:
Vincent Van Gogh – Wheatfield with Crows:
Morning all. Looking forward to BK’s roundup.
In the mean time, this article refers to polling for the Australia Institute that is encouraging for Labor on messaging. 53% agree Morrison is “all announcement and no delivery”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/29/labors-message-that-morrison-is-all-announcement-no-delivery-resonating-with-voters-poll-shows