This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
Imacca
Let it all out!
@ SalvageTheFuture
The Tories have been undermining medicare by stealth ever since Howard took over.
Griff
Right. I should’ve known there would be some measures like that.
So you’re restricted to a cheaper house on a lower income? I wonder roughly what percentage of income going to your mortgage the federal government is comfortable with.
Ray (UK) says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 12:14 am
Upnorth
Very kind although I doubt I’ll ever get there
My favourite cousin emigrated to Australia about 7 years ago (she’s in Victoria – out Bacchus Marsh way somewhere) so I would like to get out there at least once
A mate of mine from school has been in Perth for over 20 years but he has turned into a WA redneck judging by his Facebook
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No problems cobber. Might get to the “Old Dart” and catch up with you. Where do you live matey? Some of my ancestors came from Ayr in Scotland to Ayr in Queensland. Makes changing address easy.
Victoria is good for UK Immigrants. The State of Victoria and the United Kingdom are nearly the same size and Victoria is bloody cold as well.
7.6 Victorias’ fit into Queensland (and half of Victoria has moved to the “Smart State” as well).
Keep well cobber and please keep us updated with the happenings at Westminster and across your United Kingdom.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/30/federal-election-minus-three-weeks/comment-page-15/#comment-3884295
Rent assistance not being available for mortgage payments (even just the interest, which is a form of rent) doesn`t help.
It’s starting to look like it’s going to be very hard for the LNP to gain a majority in its own right at the election. The campaign so far doesn’t seem to have really changed any pre-conceived notions of the leaders, that could change in the last 3 weeks and if it does it will probably be because of something Albo does well, or not…Morrison seems out of ideas and will just continue with his hopelessly robotic and devoid salesman drivel. So it seems that there is more potential of improvement in Labor’s position if they do well in the next few weeks.
There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of enthusiasm for Labor or the LNP out there because few think they are going to do much to improve anything at all. It looks like we’re at the point where we are just playing a game of passing the parcel with the ticking timebomb in it, on multiple fronts. It seems like there is a political stalemate in policy, the 2 major parties seek to stitch together what is an increasingly divergent coalition of interests where they try their best to appease as many people as possible to keep them onside, but no one ends up all that happy. It is a concern for the long-term viability of the major parties if they are seen to be politically incapable of advocating for major (or even moderate) reforms when these are necessary. No party is totally innocent of failure here but the LNP are more culpable in playing purely political games at the expense of any meaningful policy debate.
Anyway back to the election, I think the swings between individual seats will vary more than usual. The enthusiasm for teals suggests that Labor and the Greens will do relatively better in inner and middle suburban seats. The LNP might do relatively better in the outer suburbs and regionally, with smaller swings against them, maybe breaking even. Will be interesting to see where protest vote (PHON + UAP) preferences flow. The non-major party vote would seem certain to reach record levels.
Overall Scomo is perceived as a dud, especially amongst more engaged voters but people are not entirely confident in Labor either so that leaves the door ajar if enough low-attention voters can be convinced to vote, or prefer the LNP. While a Labor majority seems likely now, I’m hesitant to be sure about it when they are mostly just relying on the PM being sunk on his own record.
hazza4257 @ Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 12:36 am
Good question! Looking forward to the details. Judging by a certain poster’s responses, first impressions are a winner 😉
Actually, a quick scan of SMH, The Australian and The Guardian have positive articles. Can’t see anything on the ABC site which is interesting.
Surprise, surprise, we have James Campbell at the Daily Telegraph with the subtitle: “Labor will announce a revolutionary and arguably risky plan to help Australians enter the market by taking out a 40 per cent stake in their property. But there is a big catch.”
The thing is, there is nothing in the article about the risk or the catch? Premature bile syndrome? If someone can find the negativity in the article itself, let me know.
mj @ #757 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:44 pm
Sounds like a democracy.
Griff
Probably 80-90% knowing the Libs. Food is non-essential! Just enough left over to pay the bills
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 12:20 am
Upnorth @ #686 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:58 pm
davidwh says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:56 pm
Talking to my brother a couple of days ago. He is/was the other black sheep of the family. Has always voted Liberal until this election. Will be voting Labor.
One reason – Scott Morrison.
I am confident the die is cast and starting to think it will be a substantial win to Labor. Time will tell.
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I hope you’re not leading me up the garden path again cobber?
As a Queenslander how many Lord Mayors do you think a State should have?
As a republican, none.
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Too right digger!
Thais are always dumbfounded when I point out that the Queen of England is also the Queen of Australia (and a German to boot).
But when we become a Republic (it will happen – one day) what happens to the titles?
Do we keep Lord Mayors? Is the Speaker still the Speaker. What about President of the Senate? We can’t have two Presidents right?
I get it that the GG gets the chop, but what about State Governors? What are they called and who appoints them?
Are Ministers and ex Members of the Executive Council called Honourable? Do we still have an Executive Council?
Should “Queens”land still be called “Queensland”? We could call it “North Austral”.
Titles are a nightmare. A former politician once told me, when we got a new Governor who liked all the trappings and la di da, it was a joke because the Governor thought it was real. Parliament made the laws and the Governor signed a piece of paper – simple.
mj
I am hoping that as it appears less and less likely that Morrison can form a majority liberal-nationals coalition government that some undecided voters then decide they would prefer the ‘stability’ of a majority Labor government than the ‘chaos’ of a liberal-national minority trying to make deals with independents. I remember the psephologist Malcolm Mackerras citing this notion of ‘stability’ as a cause of a late swing in some election (may have been Sweden 1982).
One thing for sure – Labor’s policy launch day tomorrow is not going to be overshadowed by the current PM. They will get the media’s attention.
On the shared home equity scheme, I’d like to see more detail on it.
Looks like a good idea in principle though the devil is always in the details. Even so, some people may be more than happy to accept those concessions from the government rather than paying money into the private bottomless pit that is renting, which never leads to home ownership for the tenant. At least this scheme does in a way.
True the government still might have up to 40% equity, though with house prices not looking likely to fall anytime soon, they may not lose much return on investment at all? Or write off the difference in order to actually help with the housing crisis? Seems like a cheap way (financially and politically) to deal with the issue without crashing house prices short term.
“Premature bile syndrome? ”
The stronger the symptoms of that, the more obvious it is that there are aspects to this co-ownership policy that are making the Libs have a sudden “oh shitzen or dear ….how the fwark do we spin this to limit the damage moment ??” 🙂
And no, I think this is not going to have that much affect on current homeowners other than making them think how nice it would have been if the current Govt had implemented this 9 years ago… no t really optimal for the Libs in an election campaign. 🙂 But i think it WILL have an effect on anyone trying to help or concerned about their KIDS ever being able to buy a house, and those who are currently marginal on being able to go from renters to homeowners.
This is also one policy, they may have other policies in the pipeline which help people already mortgaged.
Perhaps extending the scheme by purchasing equity in already mortgaged homes where certain conditions are met? e.g. it’s their primary residence, and only home they own.
Perhaps not announced as they’re working through the details. There’s still 3 weeks to go, so there could be more to this.
Tbh the new Labor policy might make people feel good about voting for a party with a supposed plan to make homes more accessible. These people probably won’t be the ones who actually use the policy and thus won’t care about its inadequacy (if it’s inadequate).
Maybe?
“True the government still might have up to 40% equity, though with house prices not looking likely to fall anytime soon, they may not lose much return on investment at all?”
Will be interesting to see where they propose to embed this in a federal budget.
Liability for the $ loaned but somewhere on the books that doesn’t make it part of a deficit?
Asset value and how capital gains are treated ??
Hmmmmmm………..management body for this set up like some kind of Future Fund….but without Costello the Hammock Dweller??
Rocket rocket
I’m hoping like hell that the media narrative doesn’t suddenly become “Labor is in the box seat, polls point to a big Labor victory” etc. That’s what pushes the undecideds back to the Libs
imacca,
Perhaps? Or set up a fund now, perhaps with a manageable tax (gasp) on foreign property investment?
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 12:47 am
mj @ #757 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:44 pm
…
It seems like there is a political stalemate in policy, the 2 major parties seek to stitch together what is an increasingly divergent coalition of interests where they try their best to appease as many people as possible to keep them onside, but no one ends up all that happy.
…
Sounds like a democracy.
——————————————————-
So what’s your point? You’ve just taken a snippet of what was said and not really addressed anything in it.
People want the government to tax foreign companies and foreign (read: Chinese) investors more.
Barnaby Joyce says the Labor party only cares about people in the big cities!
We’ll I am sorry that I live in a big city and not in rural Australia! Do I not matter?
Since when has the National Party given a (you know what) about people in urban areas?
Rocket, it’s an interesting theory , it seems Labor will be likely in the best position to form a majority government in its own right, whether that convinces more voters to side with them we’ll see, not sure how you’d even quantify any sort of herding effect?
I think Labor’s decision to launch in WA is a good one it will go down well as we have a bit of a chip on our shoulder for always being ignored, until now! No other larger state would care too much if they held it.
Hi Rebecca,
Nice to meet you. As a born west Mexican, I purchased my first home in 2006 under Keystart. Which is what Labor’s policy seems to model.
Everyone in WA knows keystart. It will be a vote winner in the west, if Labor can explain it’s going to export WA’s good idea. (There aren’t many, FYI)
But it’s a sound policy. Certainly helped me as a young home buyer at the time. Without it, I would have been locked out of the market for many years as house prices were rocketing at the time in Perth.
The only down side is that it will help people on low incomes buy into a market with rising interest rates and likely falling prices. When I think most would be better off financially sitting on the sidelines for a year or so.
Has Sarah Ison left the West for the Aus?
@ Hazza4257
My gut feeling with precisely zero evidence to back it up is the deeper into the campaign some one remains undecided the greater the probability they will hold their noses and vote for the incumbent.
I remember there was a hypothesis that late undecideds lean toward the party they think will win but last election polling suggested a majority thought Labor would win so I really wouldn’t have a clue.
As for sensing the mood of the nation I really have no idea how people claim to be able to do this. I know like a dozen people on a first name basis and most of those I don’t discuss politics with so I have no idea what the mood is in my own seat let alone the nation as a whole, all I can do is look at polls and maybe the betting (which really just follows the polls sometimes it lags a bit but eventually it catches up..).
Top story on the Aus website:
LABOR UNVEILS BOLD HOUSING PITCH TO VOTERS
Thousands more Australians would be able to afford a home under a landmark proposal that would cut the cost of buying property by up to 40 per cent.
Sarah Ison
Wow, reading around it looks like the journos have basically transcribed labor’s press release word for word.
Rebecca I think you may be overhyping the anger over the idea of the government keeping a chunk of your home’s equity.
Personally, I’d be more than happy to sacrifice 40% of the capital gain decades down the track so I can actually buy a house now, which otherwise might be impossible for many people. Devil will be in the detail etc etc
Plus very attractive that the policy supposedly only costs $330m and will actually earn money for the government in the long term.
Another UK By-Election alert
‘Tory Neil Parish to resign as MP after porn ‘moment of madness .. Parish says an initial incident was accidental while looking at tractors, but a second time was deliberate’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/30/tory-neil-parish-resigns-mp-commons-porn-allegations
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Tiverton & Honiton is a very safe seat in Devon – but the Lib Dems will be rubbing their hands together, it’s the sort of seat they won for fun in the Thatcher/Major era. Labour have some second in the last two elections but they were well back in the pre-Tory/LD coalition days
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PS Upnorth I’m in South Yorkshire
Voodoo Blues
I tend to think the opposite, but also based off nothing but gut feel.
Me too! I’m surprised at the number of people on here who seem to be discussing politics with every friend and acquaintance.
On the Help To Buy/Part Equity scheme
We have similar schemes in the UK, very popular
Also, Jason Clare is the shadow housing minister
Ray (UK)
South Yorkshire sounds bloody nice and green. Would be great to watch a game of Cricket in such conditions.
Keep well cobber. Muchly appreciated.
I can count on one hand the number of people I discuss politics with in real life. Most people are not interested, where people are interested it’s hard to know because people err on not discussing politics. There are people here who are members of parties or connected with others who are engaged but you need to go out of your way for that.
It’s kind of interesting to contemplate why we even got interested, for me it had nothing to do with my family, politics was never discussed until I brought it up.
For me, it’s the idea that politics affects pretty much every aspect of our life. How much does fuel cost when you’re filling up, what are your working conditions like, what happens when you need to see a doctor, how good is the infrastructure you use every day without even thinking about it?
Yeh both the major parties have tiny membership numbers compared with what they had in the fifties.So many forms of cheap entertainment available.
All the energy seems to be with the greens and an emerging far right, will also be interesting to see what happens with the Teal thing which seems to have a bit of a pulse.
Do they emerge as our version of the Liberal Democrats in the UK or do they just splinter once they get into parliament?
Albo and team should only talk about reducing child care costs , aged care nutrition and nurses, free TAFE places so Aussies get the jobs, ICAC, renewables and no subsidies for coal. Scummo and Co get trillion dollars of debt, no budget surplus before 2060, zero carbon by 2122, subsidies for coal and oil companies, tax reductions for people and Corporates above $500,000 PA, no submarines, 99 year lease of Port of Darwin by Liberal minister.
Barnaby might like to tell the nation why China won’t talk to us and won’t import lots of our primary produce. Also why we don’t need a Royal Commission into massive Murray Darling water theft.
@ hazza 4257
All true but most people are of the view that at the end of the day you have on seventeen millionth of say over who runs the country and no say whatsoever over what they do when they get there so why stress over something you have no control over.
Really I fit into that category I am interested in it but in a detached Zen kind of a way, once it’s run and won my interest quickly fades as their ain’t nothin’ I can do about it.I am too selfish to devote a big chunk of my life to something I can have so little influence over.
I think my interest in politics came from an interest initially in geography, I remember nagging my Mum at 7 years old to buy an atlas in the op shop (I have no idea why I was so interested it just caught my attention). That led me to an interest in different cultures and countries and reading alot on that. Then political systems and statistics. If you have a greater than average interest of the world that is beyond your everyday experience then your likely to be politically interested.
As I said I am interested and I am not apolitical I would like Australia to have a Nordic style economic model, something like Norway, but I doubt it is going to happen so I am not gonna invest time or emotion on a lost cause.
New thread.
Voodoo Blues @ #715 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 11:50 pm
Piss off you blow in.
hazza4257 @ #738 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 12:20 am
Yes, an interesting point but I think it has been mentioned by a journo already. I think it’s to do with Slomo’s psychology. He’s more interested in protecting his “legacy” than thinking about the future for the plebs.
Griff @ #757 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 12:46 am
And this is the Brisbane Times online hatchet job of a headline on the proposal: Labor sets out policy to buy 40% stake in private homes and tackle ‘housing crisis’
Insiders zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
It will be interest to see if Adam Bandt can help himself or if it is a wall to wall attack on Labor