This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
Taran Kahlon says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:18 pm
@Upnorth
1. Yes. If Newcastle somehow gets a lord mayor, then that means that Townsville should.
2. Dunno. I’m in QLD.
3. Because it’s a QLD beer, and anyone who hates it is banned from PollBludger for life.
4. Kevin Rudd losing his shit
=======================
Excellent responses. Excellent. A most intelligent person I can instantly tell.
BTW Newcastle already got their Lord Mayor (wankers) – as for Townsville let’s keep it the way it is – Upnorth.
Geez the Cockraoches and Mexicans damned quiet tonight. I reckon it’s the cold. Drives them into the sack early.
I keep coming back to the fact that this government is totally useless. Scomoe is lazy, ruthless, loose with the truth, intensely disliked by most of his colleagues and some of the others are even worse. Even the dopiest Qld. undecided voter understands this ( I’m a Qlder) I think when people start thinking about this election things could get ugly and even the Murdochcracy may lose interest in fighting for the re-election of the LNP.
Haha Boerwar. That’s the problem with your plan of criticising all greens ideas regardless of whether they are good or bad.
Eventually, greens policy becomes labor policy once the greens have taken the risk and done the sales job.
Then you have to do an embarrassing u turn into claiming how amazing the policy is.
Honestly we need change. Even the elite privileged liberal party classes can see that. Trust me, the rest of us do see them clearly if they continue to expect us to take them seriously and keep supporting this***ABSOLUTE TRAVESTY***, let’s be blunt here.
Rebecca: what a negative wet blanket you are!
UpNorth: XXXX Gold mate, happy to rip into that.
The amount of defeatism in here tonight, gosh, have some faith Labor people, think of the people like C@t who are booth captains or volunteering or letterboxing.
BTW A huge crowd to launch Andrew Charlton’s campaign in Parramatta tonight, hardly defeatist.
Rebecca
That’s not how the guardian article reads because it states that the home buyer receives money from the government that is not subject to rent and is paid back to the government when the home is sold and in most cases both the home owner and government should come ahead and caveats are common in business and are used by lenders and creditors.
The LNP are plugging their candidates in The Hunter an awful lot at the moment.
Evan says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:32 pm
Rebecca: what a negative wet blanket you are!
UpNorth: XXXX Gold mate, happy to rip into that.
The amount of defeatism in here tonight, gosh, have some faith Labor people, think of the people like C@t who are booth captains or volunteering or letterboxing.
BTW A huge crowd to launch Andrew Charlton’s campaign in Parramatta tonight, hardly defeatist.
====================
Too right cobber we are giving them Tories a touch up. C@t and Co. are champions and heroes.
I don’t drink a lot of XXXX Gold – makes me pee too much.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/30/labor-to-help-low-and-middle-income-earners-buy-home-with-shared-ownership-scheme
Be an interesting debate on this one. Question for the broad knowledge base of PB.
Whats the cost of this proposed program targeted for low / mid income earners compared to negative gearing targeted for investors??
Quick assessment is that this one is targeted at people who want / need a place to actually live, rather than those who want to increase their personal wealth by acquiring further assets to rent out.
Be an interesting one for politicians with substantial property portfolios to stand up and oppose?? 🙂
Its an interesting avenue to tackle Housing availability, if maybe not affordability??
As it will open the market to more people it may drive increases in prices, but, with interest rates going up that will have the opposite affect, maybe that’s not that big an issue?
It also taps very directly into the desire in the electorate for some kind of protection against interest rate rises and can be woven into how the ALP responds to the notion of imminent multiple rate rises.
Overall this plays right into Cost of Living.
Would expect the Greens will come out broadly supporting this (housing availability) while claiming it doesn’t go far enough.
Article refers to the W.A. Keystart program. So, any guesses why its announce for the campaign launch in W.A. 🙂
Libs will be bunkered downright now trying to come up with pithy lines to disparage it, or will they just appropriate it holus bolus?? 🙂
“I’ve been frustrated about inaction, but this is the first thing Labor’s come out with that’s a real dud.”
I will disagree with Rebecca on this one for now. 🙂
Re Postal Voting
About the only good thing about the voting system in the UK is the way we handle postal votes:
*If you’re registered to vote by post you cannot vote in person at the Polling Station (although you can hand in your PV there on the day)
*Postal votes must be with the Returning Officer by the day of the election
*Therefore Postals are authorised /checked and put in a separate sealed ballot box before the close of poll .. party scrutineers are allowed to observe this
*They are then counted with the on-the-day votes when all the ballot boxes are opened
Mexicanbeemer: The way these schemes have generally worked to date is that you just don’t really own your own home – you own part of a home, and the government has significant limitations on what you can do with that home (renovations, upkeep, limitations on renting it out, etc that don’t generally come with a mortgage) in order to protect their investment. It’s not a situation where they just give you the money and then you can do whatever until getting their share back when you sell (like a mortgage lender would). That you don’t pay rent on the Commonwealth share is good (also often a feature of these schemes), but it’s still a Clayton’s home ownership.
Evan: This thing some PB regulars have where an idea is bad and terrible when the LNP do it but that anyone who disagrees with it is “a wet blanket” when Labor does it is pathetic. It’s just a bad idea.
Upnorth
Died-in-the-wool New south Welshperson here.
Not sure when our slide started. Maybe 1859.
I do know the key problem is insufficient hatred of Qld among NSW rugby league administrators.
If I’d been running the show 15 years ago, Greg Inglis gets to play for his state of origin (NSW) or not at all.
Clearly a decisive moment in the state’s cultural history muffed by the NSWRL.
Best beer, BTW, is clearly Pilsener. Trouble is, I’ve lost too many brain cells to remember the exact brand…
Ray (UK) says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:39 pm
Re Postal Voting
About the only good thing about the voting system in the UK is the way we handle postal votes:
*If you’re registered to vote by post you cannot vote in person at the Polling Station (although you can hand in your PV there on the day)
*Postal votes must be with the Returning Officer by the day of the election
*Therefore Postals are authorised /checked and put in a separate sealed ballot box before the close of poll .. party scrutineers are allowed to observe this
*They are then counted with the on-the-day votes when all the ballot boxes are opened
==================
That’s why Pommie candidates are declared on the day of the election. Easy to do when your country is the size of a Postage Stamp (No offence Ray).
You could fit England into one electorate, Kennedy about two and a half times. The post might only come once a week.
But I agree with the general sentiment of counting postal votes on the day and those who applied not being allowed to vote in person unless your vote doesn’t arrive in time.
@ Des Devlin
The Tories should just repost It’s times classist rant, “here is what ALP supporters really say about you after one too many” would win them both Hunter and Shortland and probably half a dozen others maybe more.
People like It’s time should just wander off to the Teals where they can do no damage to the ALP and be among their own kind.
Rebecca
the government has significant limitations on what you can do with that home
—————-
That kind of detail does need attention.
imacca’s post above demonstrates exactly the kind of misunderstanding of the politics of this – it primarily sounds good to homeowners or people not trying to buy a house (as a sop to people actually trying to do it), but they aren’t the ones voting on this issue. Yet Labor fans disengaged from the politics are going to predictably get very excited about it.
It does nada for actual home owners worried about interest rates, or anyone much worried about the cost of living. (Keystart notoriously has considerably higher interest rates than those paid by the general population, for the record, unless McGowan has done something drastic to it very recently without my noticing.)
And I don’t think anyone’ll be too worried about opposing it – it’s just easy to tear down no matter what side of politics you’re on.
Hmmm
Think it’s fair to say in hindsight that not a lot of attention has been paid by the public to the campaign thus far. That’s my sense based on nothing but gut feel.
Reckon people will switch on now and the polls could either improve drastically for Labor or narrow slightly. I suppose most of the movement will be undecideds picking a camp.
“but it’s still a Clayton’s home ownership.”
Well that’s a bit of a FAIL wot. 🙂
It’s a path for people who would not otherwise be able to do so, to get a roof over their heads, and, in areas that they would not be otherwise able to afford that may be much more relevant to their actual lives (family, support networks, JOB OPPORTUNITIES …) than expensive renting anywhere they can get.
Whatever the restrictions (that are unlikely to be onerous for someone who wants to actually live there ) they could also look forward to considerably more secure tenure than in the cutthroat rental market. You know, things that enable people to plan ahead, commit to things, be VASTLY more productive and happier little economic cogs?? 🙂
?? Has Rebecca been triggered by something ?? 🙂
Rebecca
You probably have a point. In the end it’s usually down to how the media presents the policy – which usually has nothing to do with its merits or lack of. Punters make up their own minds about leaders and parties, but need a bit of help to understand their policies.
Brace for “Albanese fends off questions over…”
Does anyone think scotty from marketing cares about them? It is a 1 2 3 kind a thing
2019-2020 CONTEMPT AND NEGLECT DURING BLACK SUMMER BUSHFIRES
2020-2022 CONTEMPT AND NEGLECT DURING COVID PANDEMIC
2022 CONTEMPT AND NEGLECT DURING QLD & NSW FLOOD DISASTERS
Three Strikes. Your Out. We Cannot Risk This Anymore. A Cheshire Cat/Trump/Prosperity Gospel.
He pretends to do our jobs, which he isn’t qualified for anyway,for photo ops, while he gets paid very well for the job he is meant to do but clearly fails and sucks at.
Upnorth
Still workable in large constituencies IMO – ‘Na h-Eileanan an Iar’ constituency (formerly The Western Isles/Outer Hebrides) is not exactly civilisation central 🙂
That’s all well and good if you’re not one of those “people”. Saying “well, I know we have actual home ownership for the real people, but you should be grateful for whatever we give you” is not a good look coming from Labor types.
Hell, the LNP attack ad writes itself – the expenditure and the conditions of the “ownership” and you don’t even need to get clever about it.
Judging by Rebecca going off like a frog in a sock, this one policy will be the election winner for Labor! I didn’t realise it would have so much traction 😉
“Brace for “Albanese fends off questions over…””
Reckon you are right on that hazza. 🙁
Interesting though that Morriscum is out there today saying that he “will save some people a whole $120 / year” Yay look at me……, and ALP is coming out with “will pay for 40% of your object to keep the rain off purchase”. 🙂
Will see how it gets reported forthwith is suspect.
If the ALP had really let their inner bitch rip, they would have leaked something like it will also apply for 1st Sheep Station Purchases and gotten Barnyard all exited to respond via monologue to smartphone . 🙂
Griff: I’m sure “1% interest rates for me, 6% interest rates for the dirty plebs!” will go down just a treat with voters concerned about home ownership – please, get excited about spinning that one. And then cry about how absolutely shocked you are when Morrison wins re-election.
Imacca
Rebecca makes an important point about what limitations there might be on the home buyer and it shouldn’t be too difficult for Albo to explain if there are any.
” going off like a frog in a sock,”
Lol! I have never heard that one before. I shall co-opt it though. 🙂
Ray (UK) says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 12:02 am
Upnorth
Still workable in large constituencies IMO – ‘Na h-Eileanan an Iar’ constituency (formerly The Western Isles/Outer Hebrides) is not exactly civilisation central
=====================
You got a point cobber and I take that on board. Our system needs updating.
Next time you get to Oz and I’m there, happy to take you Upnorth. The best fishing spot is about 18 hours drive from home but well worth the effort. Not much in between though so pack plenty of XXXX and rum for the trip. But beware of the Crocodiles.
“Rebecca makes an important point about what limitations there might be on the home buyer and it shouldn’t be too difficult for Albo to explain if there are any.”
Its certainly a point that Albo will have to address, but honestly, i dont think that will be very difficult. As long as they are not onerous for person living there, i think that there will be wide easy acceptance in the community that an arrangement like this should have clearly defined parameters for the protection of both parties.
A great podcast I can recommend is “Socially Democratic” – somewhat ironically the closest thing to an official ALP podcast.
David Feeney is on the latest episode saying how impressed he was with labor’s first attack ad of the campaign. He says it’s much more effective than past attempts at negative ads, which according to him have been pretty shit. And Labor have plenty of footage and taking points still to be used!
Unfortunately I can’t find said ad anymore. Looks like it’s not on the ALP YouTube channel. I think I remember all the MPs posting it a week or so ago but still can’t find it.
So government takes a share of the capital gain or loss, and also provides an implicit repayment/rental subsidy. Loans are smaller so the bank’s ticket clip is smaller – implies more economic rent held by the owner.
Hmmm. Will sleep on it.
Of course they’re going to be onerous (on top of the higher interest rate). Let’s take the prohibition on renting it out – so, you get a job somewhere and you have to move for a while, as many people do, and if you were a real homeowner you’d just rent it out – but under these schemes, you can’t – you’d either have to just pay for a vacant property or be forced to sell and hope you could get another house.
(On a separate note, why would anyone take David Feeney’s thoughts on anything? His car crash of a last few years mainly serves as a wonderful cautionary note to all current and future Labor politicians about what not to do – and there’s been a couple moments in this election when it’s clear that Albo’s taken notes so as not to repeat his mistakes.)
Upnorth
Very kind although I doubt I’ll ever get there 🙂
My favourite cousin emigrated to Australia about 7 years ago (she’s in Victoria – out Bacchus Marsh way somewhere) so I would like to get out there at least once
A mate of mine from school has been in Perth for over 20 years but he has turned into a WA redneck judging by his Facebook 🙁
“In one of his last acts as Health minister, Greg Hunt shut down Australia’s national prescribing service. Alongside another key review, it represents a pointed, almost unnoticed attack on universal healthcare. By Claire Connelly.”
Greg Hunt’s final act against universal healthcare
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/30/greg-hunts-final-act-against-universal-healthcare/165124080013802#mtr
Dandy Murray,
It would help if the gov of the day also created supply through a government funded independent building company that was all about cracking out 3 bedroom houses to high quality standards with excellent energy efficiency.
Such a setup would be a great place to train tradesmen as feed stock for other larger companies.
Yet to hear a single commentator point this out, but scrotty is talking almost exclusively about what he HAS done, what he HAS achieved. It’s politics 101 that voters might appreciate this, but won’t vote based on it.
If the Libs lose, their 2022 campaign would have to be viewed as shockingly bad. Scotty is excelling at photo ops as per usual but the team around him seem pretty hopeless. I mean, did they not realise that to win an election you need actual policies? Seriously, I’m not hearing anything at all about the future from the coalition.
My inside goss is Bec is almost a shoe in for Longman based on polling. Surprised the bookies have it so close.
But that is the only seat to change hands in Qld.
Upnorth @ #686 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:58 pm
As a republican, none.
“Low down in the latest budget was a decision that will fundamentally change the availability of low-cost, safe healthcare. In a single line item, the Morrison government defunded Australia’s national prescribing service, NPS MedicineWise (NPS).
The move came without announcement. There was no warning or consultation with the organisation – or with any other medical bodies. It was a fait accompli.
From the first of January next year, NPS will lose stewardship of the code that ensures prescribers, pharmacists and patients are well informed about medications and use them properly – the quality use of medicines (QUM) strategy.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/30/greg-hunts-final-act-against-universal-healthcare/165124080013802#mtr
Planetsays:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:25 pm
“I keep coming back to the fact that this government is totally”…………..
At that point the missing definition is somewhat irrelevant other than expressing the fact that the Morrison/Joyce LNP government has long ago stopped attempting to govern for all (in so much as you can) and is intent on making every decision a win for a lesser and lesser subset of the total population.
This smaller subset are the financial beneficiaries of every decision.
The larger majority have become less relevant with every decision made by this LNP government.
The largest proportion of voters just don’t care and are fed a regular portion of “bullshit” by the “head bullshitter”.
What has happened is that enough voters have made a decision that the Morrison LNP government is no longer “fit for purpose”.
The Morrison government has lost the trust of too many voters to secure a majority on May 21.
With three weeks to go, the array of distractions afforded the voting public will intensify.
Nothing is out of bounds for LNP. Misinformation, promises, bribes, and lies will be ramped up through the media, including the ABC, in an attempt to “produce another miracle”.
Morrison has nothing to lose. His finances are secure beyond his wildest dreams. He has no sense of history other than to win. Morrison is devoid of any moral integrity.
Morrison is destined to be judged poorly as a PM. Morrison will just deny any criticism both before or after the election.
As a group, Australian voters have been politically lazy, self-indulged and unfortunately vulnerable.
The Solomon Islands (and the Pacific generally) have been treated with contempt by the Morrison government.
China has been colonizing the Pacific for some time. China, thanks to Morrison’s “team of second raters” has been given open slather in the Pacific.
Australia and its “whiteness” has been hobbled brilliantly by successive Chinese governments and its both private and government representatives.
Australia and its elected leadership need a reboot.
Both public and private financial scenarios are delicate as are environmental and integrity concerns.
Another three years of the Morrison/Joyce government is a disaster for honesty, fairness and integrity on so many levels.
An incoming government will be beset with a mountain of problems, the gifted largesse of inadequate and dishonest leadership.
The next three weeks is must see viewing for the engaged and a mild inconvenience for the majority.
“poor fellow my country”!
“It would help if the gov of the day also created supply through a government funded independent building company that was all about cracking out 3 bedroom houses to high quality standards with excellent energy efficiency.
Such a setup would be a great place to train tradesmen as feed stock for other larger companies.”
Well, does have some possibilities for linkages to State based affordable house building programs. 🙂
Will be really interesting to see where this one goes.
I wonder if this has anything to do with it?
https://grattan.edu.au/news/levelling-the-playing-field-its-time-for-a-national-shared-equity-scheme/
If interest rates rise, the govts first homebuyer scheme should be roundly criticised as terrible policy which was a disaster waiting to happen. Government subsiding people to take out loans they can barely afford at 0.1% cash rate, let alone after a rate rise.
Or maybe my analysis is all wrong. I don’t really have an issue with government covering the deposit – it’s really just an arbitrary hurdle not related to your ability to pay off the loan. But nonetheless, what will happen to all the single mothers who Scotty proudly claims he has gotten into a home, when rates go up? It could and probably should happen before the election.
Edit: not to mention that it’s just putting more demand into the market which wouldn’t normally be there, without the supply to match.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/30/federal-election-minus-three-weeks/comment-page-15/#comment-3884265
In Australia we actually make it easy to vote. Ordinary voting at any polling place in your electorate, absentee voting at any other polling place in your state (any many interstate in Commonwealth elections), 2 weeks of pre-poll voting and postal voting with a return widow after election day. This is a contributor to our high voter turnout (even with compulsory voting, voter turnout drops at by elections at least partly because there is no absent vote, as demonstrated by the WA 2014 special Senate (which did have absentee voting) election having a higher turnout than an ordinary by-election).
hazza4257 @ #739 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:20 pm
So it’s just like the last 2 elections then.
hazza4257 @ Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 12:24 am
Conditions on the loan size to income ratio will mitigate.
Tom
Yes and we should be extremely proud of it. I’ve had some infuriating arguments with American conservatives on Facebook who claim there’s nothing wrong with voting occurring on a work day and workers in some states having no legal right to leave work and vote. Not to mention how inaccessible it is, especially in southern states, if you’re black poor disabled etc. These conservatives claim that if you can’t make the effort to go and vote and jump through all the hoops, you don’t deserve to be able to vote anyway. in other words, it’s an important duty and not something you do from the comfort of your hospital bed or nursing home.
What a fucking crock of shit. As you said, we should be making it as easy as humanly possible to vote, not the opposite.
Aren’t these the same types who support the US waging wars to spread “democracy” ? Not so crash hot about democracy for their fellow Americans it seems.
“But nonetheless, what will happen to all the single mothers who Scotty proudly claims he has gotten into a home, when rates go up? ”
“Scotty” will disown any association as he is a happily married man and has reservations about whether their children are a blessing anyway. The single mums with get evicted when they default on their mortgage and wind up with their abusive ex partners again but thats ok as really, thats just intense relationship re-concilaition therapy anyway and doesn’t the doG above approve that?.
Hmmm …….. probably need a whisky to get my inner bitch back below periscope depth. 🙁