This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
Mundo I’m not sure you have been paying attention because just the other day Albanese said that Hawke/Keating modernised the economy that laid the foundation for 30 years of economic growth and that Rudd did a superb job of steering us through the GFC. Chalmers and others have also been consistent with their honed message on economic management.
Albanese, Shorten, Chalmers and Katy Gallagher were on song in Perth today. Impressive display all round. Pat Conroy played a powerhouse cameo the other day too. Chris Bowen yesterday again strong.
ALP have the momentum by any objective analysis.
12 years of Howard and 9 of Abbott/Turnbull/scomo will do that to you..
Hopefully this is more like 2007 and less like 2019
A Royal Commission into Robotdebt would be a pretty good basis to do something about the welfare system generally. Easy to get out of a small target campaign by suddenly discovering once in office that these systems need massive reform.
I mean, it definitely won’t take much investigation to find out just how Kafkaesque Centerlink is. Even the Liberals came to Jesus on that the minute Covid made good decent real voters have to use it instead of the normal thieves and junkies.
Barney, the government repeatedly behaved unlawfully towards very vulnerable people (and very probably knew damned well they were breaking the law) and a couple thousand people paid with their lives.
If I claimed that you owe me money you don’t owe me unless you can methodically prove that you don’t, I’d be liable to be prosecuted and go to jail. If the minister does it in his ministerial capacity, it’s not fine and dandy.
It’s not “corruption” in the legal sense of the term, but Royal Commissions have been held for a hell of a lot less.
If scomo and co have nothing to hide why don’t they encourage and cooperate with a rc into robodebt
Rebecca @ #654 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:06 pm
I’m sure that the ALP know that an RC into Robodebt is;
1. Popular
2. There will be findings of mismnagement or corruption gainst the LNP.
As with most RC’s, the Government will know the answer it wants.
Rebecca @ #654 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:06 pm
That’s my point. It’s something that would be appropriate for a Royal Commission, but I don’t see anything that would suggest an ICAC would be interested in it.
Oh yes, the suggestion that a FICAC would handle it is nonsense, beyond the idea that some people here seem to have that it’ll set about chasing down every grievance they’ve ever had with the LNP (and will be sadly disappointed). Definitely Royal Commission material.
Lars Von Trier @ #620 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 9:33 pm
‘Even Labor couldn’t blow it from here.’
Oh FFS, thanks alot Lars.
Tom @ #656 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:09 pm
3. Average voter – what’s Robodebt?
One thing people seem to forget:
The current govt has two major drawbacks (not counting obvious distaste for Morrison himself)
1) this govt has shown to be incompetent
2) this govt is likely corrupt
On number 1, electors might say that even if ALP kept all of LNP’s dreadful policies … they’d at least do it more professionally/competently
On number 2, ALP has said a FICAC by end of year
IOW any change will be better than what they’ve got
If I was neither Labor or liberal I would say everyone gets a mansion, halve their tax and pay for their electricity, if I got elected. That’s as realistic as all the other promises are. And that would trump them all
I don’t think it counts for mozzing when it comes from someone who’s trying to put the mozz on.
The conflicting narratives about Queensland in the media (most of which bear no resemblance to the BludgerTrack and only bear resemblance to Morgan, or at least the most recent Morgan, BUT last time it was the swing in North and Central Queensland that the polls missed more than anything, so…) are really crying out for a high sample size poll of Queensland.
Katy Gallagher trashed Morrison’s PBS announcment. She highlighted the fact that he twice introduced legislation to do something about it only to wipe it from Hansard on both occasions
and accordingly you can’t believe a word he says on the issue. She said the Morrison gobvernment have been caught out on doing nothing about the PBS and are now scrambling at the 11th hour to make it look like they actually care.
Looks like FICAC is doomed I am afraid. Albo will get sued if anyone is naughty. If these birds win that Obeid can sue the troika of Liberal Premiers who did the dirty on him.
“Kristina Keneally, who is in the middle of a bruising election campaign, is being sued in the NSW Supreme Court by three sisters, one of whom was convicted of stealing more than $680,000 from two Sydney hospitals.
During 2010 and 2011, ICAC conducted an investigation into financial activity at two Sydney hospitals — Royal North Shore and Royal North Shore Hospital for Women — that occurred between 2007 and 2009.
The ICAC report concluded Sandra Lazarus “authorised, without delegated authority, payments of invoices” totalling hundreds of thousands of dollars to companies in which she had an undisclosed interest.
On April 27 2015, Sandra was jailed for a maximum of 21 months after being convicted on 44 criminal offences, including obtaining benefit by deception and creating a false instrument or documents.
On July 14, 2014, Michelle was found guilty of lying to ICAC and was given a nine month suspended sentence.
Now all three are claiming Ms Keneally inflicted “chronic, severe mental pain and suffering” because she was the NSW premier who authorised the ICAC investigation.”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-nsw/woman-jailed-for-680000-theft-from-sydney-hospitals-sues-kristina-keneally/news-story/dc7a6af3a740f57bbf0cb22a11a6b667?amp
JenAuthor: That’s a really dangerous strategy – if it requires people to accept the status quo, they may very well just stick with the status quo. It…doesn’t have much of a history of electoral success.
People thinking FICAC is an election-winner on its own are kidding themselves. It’s the kind of policy that’s popular in and of itself but way down the priority list for most voters outside political bubbles.
Upnorth @ #665 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:19 pm
😆 😆 😆
Does the Premier even authorise an investigation?
Voters have been warned that family trusts and superannuation caps are at risk of being decimated if there is an incoming Labor government. Could end up costing any individual hundreds of thousands of dollars.
@It’s Time posts
‘ I think you mean Mcmansions to buy and fuel jetski and caravans to tow, investments properties to buy they are extremely well paid for nontertiary educated workers blah blah blah.
Yes indeed, how dare manual workers earn that kind of money, that should be the exclusive privilege of the professional classes there must be some kind of “gravy train” going down.
Also they waste the money on such vulgar things, why don’t they buy Scandinavian furniture and Tuscan crockery?Time these oiks were put back in their place stacking shelves at Bunnings for 19 bucks an hour.
Has Auberon Waugh come back from the dead and started posting on poll bludger?Even high Tories usually make at least a half hearted attempt to hide their class prejudices.
Labor’s new housing policy just dropped via Katharine Murphy
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/30/labor-to-help-low-and-middle-income-earners-buy-home-with-shared-ownership-scheme?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Will be officially announced at the campaign launch tomorrow
Freya Stark @ #668 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:31 pm
I’m safe.
I certainly don’t have 100s of 1,000s of dollars.
@Upnorth
I got some questions for you about the polling you published.
1. Why do you have Joh Bjekle Peterson as your PFP
2. How often do you get these insider polling peeks?
3. Would this fortunately mean that this weeks Newspoll would see Labor’s PV go up and their TPP lead stay the same (or even better, go up to 54-46)?
New South Wales truly is a bizzare place.
Criminals taking ex-Premiers to court for getting nicked. A conga line of Liberal Premiers, a Prime Minister who thinks he is an Amway salesman, a bevy of Lord Mayors for tin pot Local Governments, Tooheys, football stadiums no one wants, Ray Hadley, a State of Origin side that loses MOST seasons, lack of cane toads, the cold, long trousers and daylight saving.
Queensland buggers up Federally for the ALP but otherwise its’ a normal sensible place to live and when was the last time we lost a Gabba test?
You know when I was younger, apart from Cricket and Rugby League, we sort of looked up to NSW. Whitlam, Neville Wran, Keating, Richo. NSW also did an OK job for the Olympics. But those heady days have gone.
The only positive I can see is Albo.
But where did NSW go wrong? Was it all the Lord Mayors? Losing at the football? Perhaps lack of cane toads, too much Tooheys or a little Ray Hadley have clouded peoples’ judgement.
Actually I think I can trace NSW fall from grace. 6 June 1859 when Queensland was seperated from our southern relatives. There has been a slow but perceptible decline ever since – hey.
@ Barney in Tanjung Bunga
“Does the Premier even authorise an investigation?”
======================
Not in Queensland.
Another candidate for FICAC…..
This Mondays 4 Corners
Four Corners
@4corners
Up next. Profiting from the pandemic: How Aspen Medical cashed in on COVID-19. Tune in on
@ABCTV
.
Sally Neighbour
@neighbour_s
Covid-19 has cost Australians dearly. But one company has made a killing. ‘Profiting from the Pandemic’ is next on #4Corners from
@lb_online
Glenn Keys and Aspen Medical have been accused throughout the years of leveraging Keys’ relationships with government officials to procure contracts. Rather than dispute these claims or attempt to change business practices, Keys continues to receive preferential treatment from the Australian government in plain sight.
Keys’ was also appointed to the National Disability Insurance Agency under questionable circumstances because of his close ties to Scott Morrison, the leader of the LNP:
https://aspenmedicalexposed.tv/government-relationships/
Seems Aspen has long intertwined links with the Australian military, government & revolving door of ex minister turned board member.
Where is this polling Upnorth shared?
Also, it’s strange how good the journalism is on shows like 4 Corners and Media Watch, compared to shit other ABC journos are putting out on a daily basis.
Upnorth @ #674 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:38 pm
I wonder if Gladys is looking to sue herself.
Trust funds should be abolished. An abhorrent technique for the rich to split incomes and avoid taxes that is not feasible for most people.
Superannuation is for retirement not for transferring wealth to your children. It should be capped.
Not that the ALP will be touching either.
Voodoo Blues @ #669 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 10:32 pm
So a coal miner or tradie at a mine is justifiably paid two or three times the money of a nurse or teacher?! Please explain.
I think the shared-ownership scheme as the big play to would-be first home buyers is a dud.
You don’t really own your own home in those schemes, you part-own your home – you’re paying the mortgage and then you’re kind of dealing with a landlord as well.
Making that your main play, instead of a niche option like the WA scheme it’s based on, basically says you’re giving up on real home ownership for much of the population, and I wouldn’t expect it to win many votes. I’d even say it’s got some longer-term risks, because some people who thought they were getting their own home mightn’t be too thrilled with Labor after finding out the reality.
Taran Kahlon says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:34 pm
@Upnorth
I got some questions for you about the polling you published.
1. Why do you have Joh Bjekle Peterson as your PFP
2. How often do you get these insider polling peeks?
3. Would this fortunately mean that this weeks Newspoll would see Labor’s PV go up and their TPP lead stay the same (or even better, go up to 54-46)?
=============================
1. Because I hate Joh and seeing his face drives me harder to fight Tories and their friends. Reverse psychology. I told Peter Beattie when he wheeled Joh around a redveloped Lang Park in a wheelchair that I would have pushed the silly old goat down the stairs.
2. When I ring my mate – who often avoids me – cause he knows what I am going to ask.
3. Maybe – my mates polling is very different to Newspoll. It’s totally seat based and party funds are limited.
================
Now I got some questions for you.
1. Does NSW have too many Lord Mayors?
2. Do you like daylight saving?
3. Why is XXXX Australias best beer?
4. If you had a PFP who or what would it be?
Family trusts are a joke – taxing people who aren’t the ones earning the income, at a lower rate of course.
hazza4257 says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:41 pm
Where is this polling Upnorth shared?
Also, it’s strange how good the journalism is on shows like 4 Corners and Media Watch, compared to shit other ABC journos are putting out on a daily basis.
===============
Had some sausage earlier – 80+ seats. First week no one switched and anyway most punters made up their minds months ago. Albo launching early for similar reasons. Source has done work for Moi and the party for some time. SfM not well liked I am afraid.
@ hazza4257
Forgot to add I was buying an extra bottle of Bundy on the back of the sausage.
Bottle was secured at 5.10pm today – Thai Time. None of the odious Daylight Saving here.
Talking to my brother a couple of days ago. He is/was the other black sheep of the family. Has always voted Liberal until this election. Will be voting Labor.
One reason – Scott Morrison.
I am confident the die is cast and starting to think it will be a substantial win to Labor. Time will tell.
davidwh says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:56 pm
Talking to my brother a couple of days ago. He is/was the other black sheep of the family. Has always voted Liberal until this election. Will be voting Labor.
One reason – Scott Morrison.
I am confident the die is cast and starting to think it will be a substantial win to Labor. Time will tell.
==============
I hope you’re not leading me up the garden path again cobber?
As a Queenslander how many Lord Mayors do you think a State should have?
Coming from the perspective of a Labor/progressive rusted on, I’m almost surprised at how much disdain there apparently is for Scotty. I guess I’ve disliked him for so long, I’m kind of out of touch with the average punter.
Upnorth
I’d be buying an extra bottle too. Great news which should allow us all to relax a little.
“As far as I know, Robodebt is a legitimate means to recover monies owed due to overpayments of welfare schemes. ”
Not according to the courts Freya. 🙂
Upnorth not this time I am confident. Not sure about your question. Some time back I would have said only one if it’s Campbell Newman but that didn’t work out well in the long term.
Hi Kezza. Hope you are well.
No one cares about the underclass in her circles
hazza4257 says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:00 pm
Upnorth
I’d be buying an extra bottle too. Great news which should allow us all to relax a little.
================
Good on you mate. I am as nervous as Cane Toad jumping across Coronation Drive at 5pm but my bloke is always close to the knocker.
Let’s not let hubris set in. Every day is a battle to convince family, neighbours and friends. But at 8pm QLD time on the 21st of May, when the Sangroppers finishg voting, I reckon we will see a Labor Government.
@ It’s time
Firstly I think you are somewhat mistaken as to the kind of money mine workers actually earn, it certainly is not three times that of a nurse or a teacher unless you mean working on an oil rig in the Arabian gulf or something like that.
Secondly they earn what their employer is prepared to pay them and employers pay people as little as they can get away with, if they could pay them less they would.
What do you want then to do? Get their union rep to negotiate an eba that lops a third off their wages because you don’t like working class people earning more than middle class people.
davidwh says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:02 pm
Upnorth not this time I am confident. Not sure about your question. Some time back I would have said only one if it’s Campbell Newman but that didn’t work out well in the long term.
================
Ripper Rita. I trust you and I don’t trust many Tories.
On my question, which we discussed this afternoon, apparently there are over a dozen Lord Mayors in NSW. You only have to have 500 people in your local Government area and the Premier will ask the Governor to make the Mayor of your “City” a Lord Mayor.
We also discussed that the Queensland Labor Government in 1921 amalagamated about 17 Shires to make the City of Brisbane which has a Lord Mayor (Queensland has one Lord Mayor). Brisbane has about 2.5 million residents. The City of Sydney about 250,000.
I am of the strong opinion each State only needs one Lord Mayor not a Bakers Dozen.
Labor to help low and middle income earners buy home with shared ownership scheme
“Anthony Albanese will provide help for Australians on low and middle incomes to buy houses by giving eligible applicants a commonwealth equity contribution of up to 40% of the purchase price of a new home, and up to 30% for an existing home.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/30/labor-to-help-low-and-middle-income-earners-buy-home-with-shared-ownership-scheme
Should promise coke in the bubblers
Freya Stark says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 10:31 pm
Voters have been warned that family trusts and superannuation caps are at risk of being decimated if there is an incoming Labor government. Could end up costing any individual hundreds of thousands of dollars.
……………………………
Thanks Freya, great news. That means no one can complain labor does not have a mandate to make such appropriate changes if they win office.
Am a bit surprised on the super front though. The ALP is the only party with an interest in protecting super. It was the lnp that have tried every trick to destroy the well-run not for profit industry super funds.
As I said above: that’s the kind of policy targeted at first-home buyers that primarily appeals to homeowners who don’t know any first-home buyers, or the seriously gullible (who don’t understand the reality that you don’t really own your house under it).
I’ve been frustrated about inaction, but this is the first thing Labor’s come out with that’s a real dud. We’d genuinely be better off with nothing and saving $320m, instead of something that’d be my first bet for the retaliatory Royal Commission when the LNP next get back into power (if Albo wins).
@Upnorth
1. Yes. If Newcastle somehow gets a lord mayor, then that means that Townsville should.
2. Dunno. I’m in QLD.
3. Because it’s a QLD beer, and anyone who hates it is banned from PollBludger for life.
4. Kevin Rudd losing his shit