This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
Hi, Jaeger.
Yeah, I’ll admit that Ukraine fighting on as hard as it has was pretty inspirational for me these past few months.
At the start I expected it’d fall quickly and as usual the bad guys would win, but it didn’t turn out that way, so I’m holding up hope that would apply elsewhere.
Of course, I don’t hold that for granted, and I remain horrified and outraged by what has happened to innocent people in that country.
mundo @ Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:19 pm
Steady on. Perhaps time for a break?
Don’t we all….
https://twitter.com/timbo2002/status/1520239043153637376?s=21&t=UnejG4WBKUawwe3yjSHeJw
“If Katherine Deves wins her seat, I cannot see her getting along well with @PeterDutton_MP having called him Voldemort…”
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:08 pm
They are going to be a small angry mess.
Pentecostals V Catholics for the control of the soul of the Liberal Party.
Popcorn anyone?
=====================
I back the Micks – then they can split when the Buddhists try to take control
Great Aunt Eunice:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:58 pm
[‘Mavis dear, do you know much about NSW law ? After your comment yesterday I think I should take some legal action against that Edward for impersonating a Danish film director after he scandalously announced my death after I cut him out of my will.’]
The legal position of personation is the same in NSW as
it is in the other jurisdictions. It’s scandalous – the pits – that someone would take advantage of the passing of a great-aunt.
I would add, the question arises, I verily trust that dear Edward didn’t take advantage of his advantage.
Important news:
North Queensland Cowboys – 23
Parramatta Eeld – 4
5 Minutes left
Most analysts predict Putin will declare a general mobilisation if he starts losing in Donbass.
What then – if the Russian field say 1m men? There doesn’t seem to be any indication that they the Russians are going to back down.
I am hoping the US knows what it is doing- no one seems to know what will happen if Russians declare a general mobilisation.
“Boerwar says:
To clarify: the difference btween 54-46 and 53-47 is well within the margin of error.”
Oh, you mean that 54% is statistically indistinguishable from 53%….. Yes, that’s true.
But more importantly, both 54% and 53% are safe in terms of the +/-3% margin of error, thus giving confidence to the ALP that they are statistically ahead of the Coalition in the 2PP (at this point in time).
When the Labor elders do the review on why Labor lost they’ll conclude Labor should have gone hard on the economic management issue early and highlighted Labor’s role in modernising the Australian economy and creating the economic environment for growth and prosperity.
But will be upbeat about Labor’s chances in 2025.
[mundo says: Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:24 pm
When the Labor elders do the review on why Labor lost]
I think they have a better chance than 2019 and while I’m not sure, I’m hopeful they get 80+ seats.
mundo says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:24 pm
When the Labor elders do the review on why Labor lost they’ll conclude Labor should have gone hard on the economic management issue early and highlighted Labor’s role in modernising the Australian economy and creating the economic environment for growth and prosperity.
But will be upbeat about Labor’s chances in 2025.
_________________________________
I think your wrong this time mundo. Labor and Albo have got this in the bag.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:23 pm
I am hoping the US knows what it is doing- no one seems to know what will happen if that happens.
___________
Probably safest for everyone that Putin can announce a bullshit win, take territorial gains and leave the rest of Ukraine alone. Any other future is more problematic.
Lie with the dogs – catch the fleas – One Nation will eat the LNP like a parasitic worm that enters through the foot and ends up in the brain…
“The vote preference deal struck between Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the LNP will be weaponised by the Labor Party to attack government MPs in inner-city Brisbane electorates.
Labor Senator Murray Watt has told The Sunday Mail that his party will “carpet-bomb” seats such as Brisbane and Ryan to remind voters of the preference arrangement.
It comes after The Courier-Mail revealed One Nation will preference the LNP second in every electorate in Queensland – while Senator Hanson will receive the LNP’s second preference in the Senate vote.
The move will make it harder for Labor to pick up the crucial seats it needs in the Sunshine State, such as Longman and Leichhardt, to win majority government.
But Labor will now seek to use the deal to its benefit by attacking government MPs who hold inner-city electorates in a bid to lure voters away from the LNP.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/labor-to-fire-back-after-lnp-cosies-up-to-hanson-in-preference-deal/news-story/5ced79f980eb79da38bb56bddac56953?amp
“ Don’t we all….
https://twitter.com/timbo2002/status/1520239043153637376?s=21&t=UnejG4WBKUawwe3yjSHeJw
“If Katherine Deves wins her seat, I cannot see her getting along well with @PeterDutton_MP having called him Voldemort…””
Nah. She’d be fine. Deves is like those death eaters that merely pretended to disown the Dark Lord to the Wizengamot before his return.
Those predicting gloom and doom in Qld etc etc.
Time for some facts…
1) Polling this time is better for Labor than 2019 AND pollsters like Newspoll say they’ve adjusted things like preference calculations to account for 2019 errors – so, betterer for Labor
2) Labor ‘won’ Qld in 2007 (15 seats to 14) and 1983 (10 to 9); but there were extraordinary factors – Kevin07 and the incomparable Bob Hawke, respectively.
3) Lacking a bit of the ‘messiah’ factor in 2) above, the better perspective might be 1972, when Labor won office federally but only won 8 of 18 Qld seats, meaning they won 59 of 107 seats in the rest of the country.
A Bludgertrack level 8%+ swing in Qld would get Labor up to 9 additional seats, which seems hard to believe. Then again, the swing to the LNP in 2019 was almost 4.5%, building on a high base. The LNP are at a near-historic high water mark in Qld.
Qld and WA remain the hardest to read and have reputations for being Labor disappointments, but it is hard for Labor to go backwards in either state!
Maybe the sheer unevenness of the likely swings between states makes it hard to interpret. Labor is doing well in Victoria but may only pick up 1 seat because they’re at a high water mark. Teals are a bigger threat to Liberals there.
mundo says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:24 pm
When the Labor elders do the review on why Labor lost they’ll conclude Labor should have gone hard on the economic management issue early and highlighted Labor’s role in modernising the Australian economy and creating the economic environment for growth and prosperity.
But will be upbeat about Labor’s chances in 2025.
================
Good to see you back cobber. Usual upbeat self as usual. How was the Bex and good lie down?
boerwar: Feral horses? I’ve been accused of many things, but being passionate about that is…definitely not one of them. Clearly you’ve got multiple women with my very common name.
I’m hardly the only Australian who would like to get rid of Morrison but finds this opposition proposing such a lack of actual alternatives to Morrison policy that I’m prepared to vote informal and hope for better options in 2025. (That doesn’t mean that I don’t waver when federal Labor actually does something right, given that I’ll be voting Labor at state level with no hesitation.)
Mundo, I’ve noted that you’re not a native Tasmanian. My humble advice is to get out before it’s too late.
I once married a Tasmanian, and after promising me a honeymoon on the Amalfi Coast, he reneged and took me to Tasmania. What a depressing place,the marriage ended during the honeymoon when I upped and left.
Cowboys WIN – 35
Parramattta LOSE – 4
Bludgertrack is forecasting an 8.6% 2PP swing in QLD and a 9.3% 2PP swing in WA.
Even Labor couldn’t blow it from here.
3 weeks to go – still unsure what the outcome will be, but the data shows an alp govt.
Hopefully people kick this mob out and we can finally move forward as a country.
Scomos campaign hasn’t been good and it’s almost like the lnp has runout of ideas.
Gosh, all the pessimism in here tonight, people already declaring victory for Morrison and casting ahead to 2025, it is disheartening to say the least. So Albanese and Jim Chalmers and Jason Clare should all give up and not even bother with the campaign launch tomorrow?
Word of advice – turn off the mainstream media, that includes the ABC, ignore the Murdoch papers and the Nine Papers too for that matter.
There are 3 weeks to go, the campaign really has barely started.
I am a perpetual pessimist from a Labor standpoint, but some of the crap on the blog tonight is doing my head in.
One factor I think was important in 2019 was that we had Rudd/Gillard/Rudd/Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison in quick succession. People were willing to give him a go rather than change yet again. We forget about the leader fatigue the country had back then.
Times are different now.
This time the quiet Australians don’t have “baseball bats”, they are not yelling. The quiet Australians know they have a job to do. Morrison and Co. have been a disaster for them and our nation. The strong economy, wage growth and cost of living concerns have all impacted negatively on them. They are ready to change Government.
“When Prime Minister Scott Morrison won the May 2019 federal election – an election nobody expected him to win – he thanked God and called the victory one for the quiet Australians. From early 2019, Morrison had been invoking the quiet Australians in his political rhetoric. On 25 January, The West Australian reported the following after Morrison visited the south coast of New South Wales:
Away from the noise of the mainstream media, he said ‘quiet Australians’ were getting on with life and didn’t like hearing the angry mob telling them what to do. He listed issues that these Australians were ‘un-shoutily’ worried about: a strong economy, wage growth and cost of living concerns.”
https://reporter.anu.edu.au/word-watch-quiet-australians
Current Great Aunt Eunice impersonator odds:
Asha: 1.11
William Bowe: 1.23
Wat Tyler: 1.35
Earlwood: 7.50
Mundo: 16.40
C@t: 15.00
Yabba: 42.50
GG: 50.00
BW: 60.00
Briefly: 200.00
Great Aunt Eunice says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:33 pm
Mundo, I’ve noted that you’re not a native Tasmanian. My humble advice is to get out before it’s too late.
I once married a Tasmanian, and after promising me a honeymoon on the Amalfi Coast, he reneged and took me to Tasmania. What a depressing place,the marriage ended during the honeymoon when I upped and left.
==================
What a sad story Great Aunt Eunice. I have a tear in my eye. Did the “cad” run off with his sister?
nath says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:39 pm
Current Great Aunt Eunice impersonator odds:
Asha: 1.11
William Bowe: 1.23
Wat Tyler: 1.35
Earlwood: 7.50
Mundo: 16.40
C@t: 15.00
Yabba: 42.50
GG: 50.00
BW: 60.00
Briefly: 200.00
BW 60.00
==================
Methinks thou dost protest too much
Albanese, I am not his biggest fan, but it is what it is, let’s see how he does in Perth tomorrow before the likes of Mundo throw in the towel.
Remember, Labor really only needs to get to 74 seats and they would only need 2 or 3 of the independents to form a government
Upnorth says:
Methinks thou dost protest too much
____________
It’s not me. Lars is a dear friend and colleague. I would never.
Actually, the more I think about it. I’m shortening:
Wat Tyler into 1.07 favorite
Here we go againsays:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:48 pm
The Age in Melbourne is in full attack mode on Labor
This is the publication whose Editor begged the question has The Age moved to the right
The answer is yes
And you deliver what you say you will deliver
That is the bottom line.
_____________________
God this is getting pathetic.
If the ALP and its supporters can’t handle even the slightest amount of criticism, then they are going to be all at sea in Govt. They will be jumping at shadows left, right and centre.
Young Mr Upnorth, all I’ll say is that the sister was cute, and had a nice little shack on Scotland Island.
Upnorth says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:22 pm
Important news:
North Queensland Cowboys – 23
Parramatta Eeld – 4
5 Minutes left
Looks like Parramatta Stadium was a brilliant waste of money.. like every NRL stadium in NSW.
NSW Labor government should consider paying anther state to host the final.. it could save a fortune
Upnorth @ #619 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 9:33 pm
Being a Panthers supporter I was cheering for the Cowboys. They played well.
If Morrison is re-elected I would think he would be pushed out well before 2025.
Dutton vs Plibersek or Chalmers in ’25 would be very interesting.
Evan @ #622 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 9:35 pm
Yes, some people need to get out more.
C@tmomma @ #564 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 6:43 pm
How is Robodebt corruption?
Super Nintendo chalmers for pm…
Real Mark Latham
@RealMarkLatham
·
1h
The last Labor budget surplus was in 1991, when Van Oscillator was still at school.
Does he really get paid for this tripe??
Quote Tweet
The Australian
@australian
· 3h
Opinion: The spin that only the conservative side of politics knows how to balance the books is the biggest furphy of all, writes Peter Van Onselen
As far as I know, Robodebt is a legitimate means to recover monies owed due to overpayments of welfare schemes. It is not corruption. (?)
Upnorth @ #627 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 9:42 pm
You can count me out. I live in the real world.
Freya Stark @ #78 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 9:51 pm
It was not the nature of Robodebt but the methodology that was corrupted by the Coalition. Anyway, it’s not going to be investigated by a corruption commission but a Royal Commission.
[Freya Stark says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:51 pm
As far as I know, Robodebt is a legitimate means to recover monies owed due to overpayments of welfare schemes. It is not corruption. (?)]
Why did they settle for 1.8 billion?
Why did over 2000 people suicide from it – one of my friends was almost successful and they hounded him for it – even though it was later found to be incorrect and he got a refund…
It was unlawful and scomo was responsible for it
The Robodebt scheme, formally Online Compliance Intervention (OCI), was an unlawful method of automated debt assessment and recovery employed by Services Australia as part of its Centrelink payment compliance program.
How can people defend such programs?
Sceptic says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:46 pm
Upnorth says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:22 pm
Important news:
North Queensland Cowboys – 23
Parramatta Eeld – 4
5 Minutes left
Looks like Parramatta Stadium was a brilliant waste of money.. like every NRL stadium in NSW.
NSW Labor government should consider paying anther state to host the final.. it could save a fortune
==========================
Totally agree. Play the Grand Finals in Townsville and Brisbane. State of Origins also.
nath @ #612 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 9:27 pm
https://youtu.be/sr10t6aH5qc
That clip also contains some generals talking logistics and tactics.
Oh btw,
Insiders tomorrow, my prediction
The panel talks about Chalmers and Clare and entertains leadership speculation because nothing else went badly for the ALP this week.
They’ll ignore china and ignore the RBA.
Great Aunt Eunice says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:46 pm
Young Mr Upnorth, all I’ll say is that the sister was cute, and had a nice little shack on Scotland Island.
===============================
It sounds like it could be made into a Netflix series – not for the kiddies though . I know Mr Nath likes that Genre.
Liberal trolls will defend the indefensible, shock, horror. Repugnant stuff.
I’m relieved at the news of a Royal Commission into Robodebt. (They tried to stand over me, but decided they wouldn’t bother when I made clear how silly their grounds were and that I was clearly going to fight it.)
But it does ring a bit hollow without an apology for or at least a plan to undo the damage from Gillard’s Abbott-style hacking to death of the disability support pension and single parent welfare – it’s a case of “we’ll hold people accountable for government treating the most vulnerable in horrifying ways, as long as those people are our opponents”. Doesn’t mean I won’t enjoy it though.
Oh my goodness, I am watching the Hillsong Expose on the crime channel, and so much about SfM falls into place, the eagle ‘sign’, the fake tears, the narcissism, the marketing over substance, power and control through manipulation.
Not being too familiar with Mega Church’s and the prosperity gospel so I thought it worth a look.
What an absolute scam, its all marketing, like Amway for the god botherers with the same business model of CDs, Books, Conferences and general brainwashing manipulation and cult personality leaders. Those conference phots of SfM – about $500 a head to attend. Oh and run by hypocritical, money grubbing, womanising tools – so even more like Amway.
The god bothering part of SfM always bothered me as it came off phoney – but I now now it IS phoney and the only god worshipped by Hillsong is the money from the gullible masses who donate and buy their “Merch” and are told what to believe and how to live their lives by these celebrity pastors.
C@tmomma @ #641 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 7:54 pm
But that’s not corruption.