This weekend brings us to the half-way point of a six-week campaign. The Australian Electoral Commission is receiving its first returned postal votes of them (738 of them as of Thursday evening, according to its figures), but there is still another week to go before pre-poll booths open, thanks to the reduction of the early voting period from three weeks to two.
Miscellaneous news:
• One Nation will in fact direct preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in every seat in Queensland, contrary to reports yesterday that it would not do so in Longman. The Courier-Mail reports it is “understood” that Nationals Senator Matt Canavan brokered the deal, in which Pauline Hanson has been placed second on the LNP ticket.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that internal polling from Queensland shows Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane to be “real contests”, with “the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan”.
• The latest monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor survey on issue salience finds cost of living has risen from fourth place to first since the start of the year, with 50% of respondents picking at as one of the top three issues out of nineteen on offer. Health care has edged down over the same period from 48% to 39%, the economy has fallen from 36% to 32%, and housing has gone from 33% to 32%.
• On the day One Nation posted a satirical video about voter fraud that wasn’t funny because it wasn’t true (the \Age/Herald reports it has been pulled from TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, but not YouTube), one of its candidates has been referred to Australian Federal Police because he had been nominated to run in two different seats for two different parties, which would have involved making a false declaration. Malcolm Heffernan says One Nation submitted his application for the Sydney seat of Banks after telling him his “services were no longer required”, by which time he had nominated instead for the Australian Federation Party in the Perth seat of Brand.
• Other candidates facing difficulties of one sort or another are Jo Dyer, independent candidate from Boothby and friend of Christian Porter’s rape accuser, who seems likely fall foul of Section 44 in the seemingly unlikely event that she’s elected; Robbie Beaton, Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, who has admitted he lives in Camberwell and not at the address of a hotel he used to own in Mordialloc, as per his enrolment; and Ingram Spencer, United Australia Party candidate for Higgins, who has been arrested on charges using a carriage service to menace or harass.
• Redbridge’s polls of Wentworth and Parramatta for Equality Australia, which were covered in Thursday’s post, can be downloaded here.
C@T,
Sabra Lane is a very, very good friend of our local Liberal Member of Parliament.
Quelle surprise.
“Oliver Suttonsays:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:26 pm
Des, the ALP owns Queensland at state level.
In government for 27 of the 32 years since the end of the Joh era.”
Now that I am living in Brisbane, it doesn’t surprise me that Queenslanders support the ALP at the state level. What’s puzzling is why they don’t support the ALP far more often than they do at the Federal level.
@Tricot – just a wart.
I agree it’s too premature for planning out celebrations. There is a balance – there is a difference between preparing for victory and dreading the inevitable defeat lol.
I feel miles better than I did at this stage in 2019. This was the point when I started to feel wary.
Nothing so far has changed my view as to where this is heading.
Mavis: Anyone in WA could tell you that this was a good election to go hard in WA (given McGowan), and opening the campaign there flows logically from that.
Listening to Smith, who’s last big idea was that McGowan was too scary and that Smith needed to save WA Labor by running on a nothing-platform (until the WA party decided they’d rather win an election thank you very much and told him to piss off), that…doesn’t logically flow so much.
I don’t know where you people have been but I have seen a clear policy platform from Labor being spelled out. Admittedly it is modest, but with the level of debt Scotty & co has racked up, modest is necessary. And there’s always the ‘don’t scare the horses’ bit, which is what occurred last time (creating perceived risk, rightly or wrongly).
Remember, under -promise and over-deliver is the catchcry (esp since Mr Announcible cannot even deliver a month old newspaper.
Also, I gotta say, posters appear to be ‘damned if they do and damned if they don’t’ when it comes to having some confidence that the election will be a win for the good guys.
All the ‘drinking’ buddies originally prefaced their intention with “If ALP wins…” Posters were bagging Mundo for his/her depressed eyeore routine, forecasting doom and gloom, and now posters are bagging others for their confidence when you gotta admit, the prevailing polling and the change in tone of the media (and many in the Lib party) suggests the writing is on the wall … at least modestly.
I understand the conservatives enjoy trying to play with the lefties minds by continually throwing depressive barbs in to stir things up — but seriously, you guys are talking to yourselves, for yourselves. I am not sure which stage of grief that is (denial?) but those of us who are quietly confident are not completely bonkers – we are aware that there is a chance of a loss, but it is a relatively small one going on conditions at this point in time.
Sabra Lane
Quelle surprise
Ditto.
“ Oh, and Sabra Lane is a very, very good friend of our local Liberal Member of Parliament. ”
Of course she is. Also besties with Lucy Turnbull. Naturally.
Tory. Tory. Tory.
jt1983 says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:29 pm
@Tricot – just a wart.
I agree it’s too premature for planning out celebrations. There is a balance – there is a difference between preparing for victory and dreading the inevitable defeat lol.
I feel miles better than I did at this stage in 2019. This was the point when I started to feel wary.
Nothing so far has changed my view as to where this is heading.
_____________________
Don’t see there is any need for concern in the ALP at this stage. They are on track for a seat figure in the high 70’s
“Mavis says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 7:29 pm
Historyintime:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 7:02 pm
[‘If Labor wins 9 seats in Qld I will cut my left testicle off and live stream it to Poll Bludger.’]
Labor won’t – perhaps picking up two. It’s not an accident that Labor’s campaign is centred in WA”
Labor’s work in Queensland started soon after the shocking defeat in 2019… and it hasn’t stopped. I guess that the launch in WA has to do with the large and increasing support for the ALP there (largest swing in the polls of all states). Both Qld and WA will be central for the Coalition defeat. Scomo was hoping to make up the lost ground in NSW, but bushfires, Covid and floods are swinging NSW to the ALP too.
It doesn’t look good for Scomo and the Coalition…. it doesn’t look good at all…. hence expect an increasing level of desperation in their campaign.
The Age tonight is doing its best to sow doubt that Labor can do well here in Victoria. How surprising.
Oh, and I forgot to mention. The hitherto well-behaved crowd booed the Liberal loudly and longly when she said the FICAC they put up before parliament rose was as good as it was ever going to get if they got back into government.
And the Labor candidate was cheered loud and long for advocating a FICAC, with retrospective powers (which some lawyer in the audience quibbled about due to some law already on the books making it unnecessary), open hearings and which could investigate politicians. 🙂
Chris Uhlmann
@CUhlmann
The wholesale price of power a few moments ago. Again… East coast electricity prices averaged $39 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in October 2021.#auspol
Chris & 9 Twitter account have been banging on about power costs & inflation for days… trying to boost SfM requirement to keep coal.. call it subliminal support for the LNP… keep the voters worried is their motto.
Does anyone know who is benefitting from the $180 per head function Seven West is hosting for Morrison at Curtin Uni next week? That Lanai Scarr lady is hosting it while still being part of a supposedly independent press pack
Someone did make the sensible point that, why would you waste money on a Royal Commission into Robodebt when you’re going to have a FICAC?
somethinglikethat: At least they quoted Kos Samaras’ polling (that state Labor is doing even better than federal Labor, so accusing them of being a drag is ludicrous) to put the lie to the claim they were trying to run with.
Sceptic @ #242 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:42 pm
But it’s the coal that’s the problem.
Rebecca so uncomfortable that Labor has no policy platform to the point that an informal vote is needed.
Thankfully, Lars/Edwina is very comfortable in voting Labor this time and that Labor will win a comfortable majority.
Where is Great Aunt Eunice when you need her? She will set things straight 😉
The Age in Melbourne is in full attack mode on Labor
This is the publication whose Editor begged the question has The Age moved to the right
The answer is yes
And you deliver what you say you will deliver
That is the bottom line
C@tmomma @ #564 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:43 pm
A FICAC would only investigate possible criminality and corruption. A Royal Commission can examine incompetence and stupidity of the policy as well as criminality and corruption.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:43 pm
Someone did make the sensible point that, why would you waste money on a Royal Commission into Robodebt when you’re going to have a FICAC?
———-
Actually that’s not sensible.
For the FICAC to work, it has to be self directing. (as per the ALP model) It may choose something else to look at.
Robodebt was settled by the government, so …. it’s kinda done in some regards and I feel like that would be taken into consideration by a FICAC looking for scalps (leppington triangle anyone).
An RC into robodebt will be a great way to make scomo suffer for another few years. And to really damage the liberal brand in the news.
“Boerwar says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:15 pm
54-46/ 53/47 are within the MOE. Basically meaningless.”
No, they are not!…. The margin of error is usually around 3%, that means +/- 3%! Any value at the top end of the margin and above should be very worrying for the party that’s behind….. But the Libs are welcome to believe you, of course, and think that current polls are “meaningless”. Ha, ha.
I also remember The Age and the rest of the media predicting disaster for Dan Andrews in 2018, and then he went on to win blue-ribbon Liberal seats like Hawthorn, Box Hill, Ringwood, Nepean, Bayswater and Bass, among others.
The traditional media is losing its power, I reckon. And perhaps it’s social media that’s the new game. In 2019, I think the Coalition gained the edge there, with help from Clive Palmer and friends, but this time around, Labor may be more ready for them in that field.
Griff
That Mr Upnorth knows a thing or two about rats.
Sadly every family has a couple of Ratus ratus’ in the ranks
Rebecca:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:30 pm
You appear to have a grievance against Smith. From the east, he seems to have the goods, though I’ve scant local knowledge thereof. But I well recall when serving in WA (HMAS Leeuwin), Tonkin won in ’71. Even back then, I was delighted.
“somethinglikethatsays:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:39 pm
The Age tonight is doing its best to sow doubt that Labor can do well here in Victoria. How surprising.”
…. Well, the ALP did well in Victoria at the shocking 2019 federal election (except for Chisholm). Anyone thinking that they will do badly in 2022 is dreaming. Chances are that Chisholm will go back to Labor. But then the Liberals may get some interesting additional surprises in Victoria courtesy of the Teals….
Michael Springer article on why Morrison needs to go;
https://theaimn.com/morrisons-miracle-only-delivered-us-pain-now-put-your-hand-up-to-say-he-must-go/
For yabba, GG et al:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLZFhNrFdow
Mavis dear, do you know much about NSW law ? After your comment yesterday I think I should take some legal action against that Edward for impersonating a Danish film director after he scandalously announced my death after I cut him out of my will.
Mavis: Smith would’ve been 16 when Tonkin got elected, so I can’t say I see the connection there. He was an absolute laughing stock after his botched challenge to McGowan in 2016 (on the kind of level that rarely unites so many people), so east-coasters thinking he’s somehow “got the goods” have really got the wrong end of the stick.
Who is doing this poor taste impersonation of Dear Lars’ late Great Aunt?
I don’t really buy the liberals thinking that they will win outer suburban Victorian seats. Like those seats were the ones Morrison played really well in last election, yet now when he’s clearly more unpopular they’re going to swing further to him? Seems like they’re desperately trying to build a narrative for where they win seats to offset near certain losses.
Kirsdarke! Long time no see!
I wonder if Ukraine has inspired a bit of “people power”, instead of the usual polling apathy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZ9myHhpS9s
Alpo, the polls can point at 16 seats switching from LNP to ALP (and nobody will believe it because its too good to be true), but beyond ALP getting enough a majority, the bigger problem for the LNP is if they lose 4 or 5 to independents.
They will have to face their internal failures, they have failed moderates in their party who will lose their seats to independents, they failed to their party that they cant find such candidates to run for them, and they will have only saved the conservatives in their party who wont know how to respond to it.
They are going to be a small angry mess.
When it comes to impersonating young nath, don’t you think you’ve got little credibility. I would have happily stayed a “lurker” if that scoundrel Edward hadn’t falsely announced my death.
south @ #250 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:49 pm
I see your point but I would also think that Robodebt would be a gimme for a FICAC. And the point was just made by way of saving money when the Budget is in Deficit. On the other hand, the FICAC will likely have a lot on its plate and may not get around to Robodebt as quickly as we all would like.
“Historyintime says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 7:36 pm
Alpo, as a Queenslander I don’t get any real sense of a big swing. 2007 was all about Kevin Rudd and not easily replicable. In fact, despite all the anecdotal stuff and partial polling results, I think Labor would be lucky to get beyond a two seat gain. The premise of this view is a combination of Qlders underlying conservatism and the LNP running a successful negative campaign on economic management over the last 3 weeks.”
Of course we will have to wait until the votes are counted, but my impression is that Scomo’s relationship with the Qld ALP government during the pandemic has made him pretty much persona non grata here, whereas this time around all the brouhaha about “jobs losses” due to Labor climate change policies is certainly not having the same impact as in 2019. In addition, the Greens have also been more restrained (no convoy to the north), which has defused the usual LNP scare campaign that an ALP government would be “just puppets of the Greens”…. etc.
A blast from a year ago: chicken masala has a go at explaining factionalism within the federal parliamentary liberal party in the era of ScoMo:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-s-who-in-the-liberals-left-right-and-centre-factions-20210303-p577gv.html
Lucy Wicks? Definitely a Morrison crumb collector.
They are going to be a small angry mess.
Pentecostals V Catholics for the control of the soul of the Liberal Party.
Popcorn anyone? 😀
[Xenu says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:04 pm
I don’t really buy the liberals thinking that they will win outer suburban Victorian seats. ]
2019 was scomos high water mark – it’s the best he could hope for.
There are 8 -10 seats which could fall if the swings on.
nath says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:02 pm
Who is doing this poor taste impersonation of Dear Lars’ late Great Aunt?
____________________________________________
That’s the sad part – as a truth teller I don’t mind the personal attacks on here – but when they go after dead family members what can you say?
Still I’ve been contacted by a senior colleague of a certain angry poster on here – now they have some tales to tell . I’ve encouraged them to come on here and share the story. Hopefully they will soon?
Alpo says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:49 pm
“Boerwar says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:15 pm
54-46/ 53/47 are within the MOE. Basically meaningless.”
No, they are not!…. The margin of error is usually around 3%, that means +/- 3%! Any value at the top end of the margin and above should be very worrying for the party that’s behind….. But the Libs are welcome to believe you, of course, and think that current polls are “meaningless”. Ha, ha.
——————————————–
To clarify: the difference btween 54-46 and 53-47 is well within the margin of error.
I seem to recall that there was a Rebecca poster on Bludger for a while who was championing the cause of feral horses in the Kosciusko National Horse Paddock: the global laughing stock national park.
But that Rebecca did not express concern for Labor while sticking it to Labor.
So the styles are a bit different.
C@tmomma,
My main thought around robodebt is justice delayed is justice denied.
I will happily see corruption take time to be prosecuted, but the government wasted not a second in hounding people to the point of death for a few dollars. It’s just on another level IMO.
Frankly, with Robodebt and the extreme negligence of government I think there should be convictions.
But If we’re all lucky, we can have all our cake and eat it too.
“bug1 says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:06 pm
Alpo, the polls can point at 16 seats switching from LNP to ALP (and nobody will believe it because its too good to be true), but beyond ALP getting enough a majority, the bigger problem for the LNP is if they lose 4 or 5 to independents.
They will have to face their internal failures, they have failed moderates in their party who will lose their seats to independents, they failed to their party that they cant find such candidates to run for them, and they will have only saved the conservatives in their party who wont know how to respond to it.
They are going to be a small angry mess.”
Yes, I am looking forward to see what’s going to happen to the Coalition post-election. They have been accumulating internal political-TNT for 9 years or more…. and now the voters are going to press the detonator.
bug1 @ #576 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:54 pm
‘Ya think this is a must read out in the marginals?
For Lars/Edwina/Edward. Frank is a good name 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnZhUJmD9jE
FICAC will be about wrongdoing/corruption that ‘might’ ultimately be criminal.
RC into Robodebt is about wrongdoing that wrongly targeted a particular social group via use of a mismanaged system. This would not be criminal per se …. Nobody will go to gaol over it (despite the fact that they should as it resulted in many suicides).
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:10 pm
nath says:
Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 9:02 pm
Who is doing this poor taste impersonation of Dear Lars’ late Great Aunt?
____________________________________________
That’s the sad part – as a truth teller I don’t mind the personal attacks on here – but when they go after dead family members what can you say?
___________
That’s the odd part. The impersonator shows evidence of a sense of humor, albeit in poor taste. However, none of the usual suspects possess one. A real who-dun-it!
Stephen Smith was an excellent local member, a good minister and a good and intelligent face for Labor…
His role in State politics was one of those “perhaps/maybe” occasions, thought as being useful when Emperor Barnett, looked as though he was going to be in power until he as 90.
Labor going with McGowan has been well and truly vindicate – now – but it did not look all that pretty for Labor some years ago….
I remember Smith having to cop the smug and exultant stuff from the Libs and their media friends here when Labor went down in the elections…..That took true character…….
Tricot @ #548 Saturday, April 30th, 2022 – 8:25 pm
I want Labor to win you numbnut.
All I want is LABOR TO WIN you FUCKWIT.