No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
hazza4257 @ #1037 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 10:19 pm
There was one, and only one comment, from a new poster a few threads ago that intimated they had seen internal Liberal Party polling and it was worse than any of the published polls. Which is setting the scene for plenty of chooks running around with their heads chopped off behind the scenes.
@BK, re the photo of Deves, circa 8pm:
“ Taylormade
These puppies?”
Hmm. Sadly missing a pearl necklace.
I chatted on social media to a Qld state Labor MP over the weekend and according to him, Labor is doing far better in South East Qld than the published polls or the media are implying. I mean Robert Skelton, who is the state ALP MP for Nicklin, on the Sunshine Coast. Make of that what you will!
Morrison campaigning during the week in Dawson, Herbert, Capricornia – either it’s an attempted head fake on Labor or their internal polling in regional Qld is dire.
A lot will depend on this week’s Newspoll. We’re at the halfway mark now and if things don’t start moving in the Coalition’s direction now it’s hard to see, absent a black swan, or Albanese getting caught with a goat and a stick of butter, what the Coalition can do to turn the tide.
Especially if an interest rate rise puts the icing on the cake for the Coalition.
But, you know, 2019.
C@t
You would have to think so, given they’ve basically scrapped any liberal branding and are using all sorts of shades of blue. ScoMo has got to be a negative – reckon they’ve just go nobody better to front the media! He’s still convinced he’s the one-man miracle show who people can’t get enough of!
Edit: this was in reply to the initial comment about internal polling.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1049 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 10:33 pm
Agreed. The Liberal puppies usually come with a pearl necklace. 😐
Jaeger @ #1045 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 10:24 pm
lol, I knew someone was watching me, just knew.
C@t
Yes I wish we had a Guardian Essential or Resolve Strategic (which I expect out Sunday night) to just ease into a Newspoll. And surely a Newspoll 53/47 say with three weeks to go would really start sending some Libs and Nats on their own separate ways in desperation to keep their own jobs.
Pisshead
Well that’s good to hear. I can understand regional seats being stubbornly LNP but I just don’t see how Anastasia can win in a landslide and somehow the SE corner still supposedly want Dutton and Stuart Robert representing them federally.
@hazza4257
Betting companies do not have an opinion they simply adjust the odds for weight of money don’t take bets so large that it would put their book out of balance and let the 106 – 107% markets they frame take care of the rest.
Sure sportsbet payed out on both Labor and the Tories last time but that was really just a marketing ploy to encourage new account holders who signed up to bet on the election to keep playing with them and slowly give it all back and then some.
Well yes, 2019, that makes us all cautious on the Labor side of the fence. I for one won’t believe a Labor victory until I see the actual evidence on election night or the oracle AG calls it on the ABC.
Labor to my mind hasn’t even unleashed its main policies yet, I’m sure Jim Chalmers and Jason Clare have both hinted that there’s more to be announced that’s pretty big.
What’s Morrison got left in his kit bag, besides fear and bragging about the unemployment rate? I guess he hopes Albo slips up again and then Aussies will reluctantly stick with the dress up king from the Shire, and the Murdoch media will get him home.
hazza4257 @ #1054 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 10:36 pm
Also, Morrison has so many of his people in place it’s hard to see the rest of them having any say so as to be able to steer the ship in another direction. And, yes, Morrison believes in his miraculous capabilities and so would not be wont to hand over the reigns to anyone else and their ideas. So, the ship’s crew will have to go down with their captain.
Also, I’ve been thinking about Morrison’s move to have more women standing this time via his captain’s picks. To me that seems like nothing so much as fighting the last war. If he put more women up in the last election, and then kept doing it this election, then he may have been able to convince the electorate that he was serious about female representation in the Coalition. As it stands it really does look like putting lipstick, in a very superficial way, on the pig before rolling out the pork barrel.
I also hope the number of undecideds in Essential falls.
Clinton had a bigger lead over Trump than Obama had over Romney, but there were many more undecideds in 2016, which was how Nate Silver’s ‘fivethirtyeight.com’ model had Trump at a 30% chance of winning compared to Romney on 11% from memory.
Can’t wait to read Niki Savva’s insider tell-all of this term of government – I hope she gets the goss and turns it into another book. There’s gotta be some shocking stuff that’s gone on behind the scenes.
C@t – myself not being a dog person, what sort of dog is that?
hazza4257: Rob Skelton is a genuine standup bloke, I don’t think he’d be feeding me BS. Really good local MP too, he won Nicklin by 90 votes off the LNP in 2020, but I reckon he’ll extend his margin next time.
Labor’s got a mighty candidate in Flynn, Matt Burnett. Their candidate in Herbert John Ringer is pretty good too.
Rocket Rocket @ #1057 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 10:40 pm
I’ve decided to just go with the Newspoll flow this election because I tend to believe they corrected their methodology appropriately for this election.
Yabba,
Just for you!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdqKzyRugjI
I don’t even think that the sky god/fairy call him what you will Murdoch can save the Coalition this time around.
And if Australians were to elect Morrison again, I would just laugh at the Australian people, it would be a reflection on them not Morrison
Rocket Rocket @ #1065 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 10:46 pm
I believe it’s a Maltese Terrier puppy. Here’s another one:
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:35 pm
A lot will depend on this week’s Newspoll. We’re at the halfway mark now and if things don’t start moving in the Coalition’s direction now it’s hard to see, absent a black swan, or Albanese getting caught with a goat and a stick of butter, what the Coalition can do to turn the tide.
Especially if an interest rate rise puts the icing on the cake for the Coalition.
But, you know, 2019.
==========================
C@t is butter still not popular back home?
I’m booth captain of one of the biggest booths in the Robertson electorate this time so I imagine I’ll have a pretty good idea about the mood of the electorate by the time I finish my job on election day. People come to my booth from all around, rich areas and not so affluent areas. So a broad cross-section of the voting public.
Time to bring out the Hoary Chestnut and see how it goes.
“The man tasked with turning back the boats has released an extraordinary video in multiple languages warning Australia’s borders remained closed to people smugglers.
In a stern 32-second clip released on YouTube on Thursday, Royal Australian Navy Rear Admiral Justin Jones, commander of Maritime and Border Command and Operation Sovereign Borders, said the nation’s policies on border protection had not and would not change.
He said the country remained resolute on the point.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/you-have-zero-chance-maritime-border-command-video-gives-blunt-warning-to-peoplesmugglers-in-the-heat-of-election-campaign/news-story/990818ea6224048b464edaf9fcec5738?amp
Greensborough Growler @ #1070 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 10:48 pm
Try a real voice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mnp8w-hH2Y4
The music lacks complexity, for my taste, and the words are just silly.
C@t is butter still not popular back home?
Actually, since shows like My Kitchen Rules, Masterchef and all the overseas cooking shows, butter has become popular again.
I. of course, never wavered in my devotion to the natural spread. As my figure shows. 😀
I actually made Broccoli and Gnocchi pan-fried in butter for dinner tonight. Yum!
BB
The measure I reference is the amount owed to our home mortgage lenders (using RBA data)
What is lent is immaterial
Because people buy and sell
So they repay and borrow again
The amount owed to our home mortgage lenders is the net figure
And some downsize – so clear their debt
If someone is purchasing their first home the amount borrowed goes straight to the amount owed to our home mortgage lenders (because there is no offset)
Just to clarify
Houses and Units are still selling – and being built
So there is still a market as you identify
Cat,
Best job in Australian politics is being booth captain for the ALP.
Go well!
Morrison this Morrison that Morrison here Morrison there I’m sick to fuckn death of hearing his name. They’ve got nothing, SFA. No policies, no agenda, nothing. The legacy is catastrophic, domestically and globally. He’s an internationally certified liar. A horrible horrible person. No moral compass. A pyscho. He put Deves in because a/ bit tits b/ jesus told him to c/she’s the new wife of Steggels ex husband d/ all of the above. He’s a Trump sycophant. He wanted to take his creepy preacher to meet Trump. Get him out of our lives, out out out black spot. It’s been a nightmare. I actually think he’s e*il. There is no good in him. He’s an aberration. He’s at the end of the scale. There are no saving graces. None. None. None. It has to stop. May 21.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:55 pm
I’m booth captain of one of the biggest booths in the Robertson electorate this time so I imagine I’ll have a pretty good idea about the mood of the electorate by the time I finish my job on election day. People come to my booth from all around, rich areas and not so affluent areas. So a broad cross-section of the voting public.
==================
Did you ever know your my hero.
https://youtu.be/0iAzMRKFX3c
Thanks, Growler. While I can still stand I will keep putting my hand up. 🙂
Drongosays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:03 pm
Anika Wells’ recommendation to Brisbane flood victims to move their house ‘further up their blocks’ just might cost her the seat of Lilley.
—
Did she really say that ? Where ? When ? IF she did say that it is pretty dumb, insensitive thing to say about people copping flood conditions. She deserves to lose her seat if she said something so stupid, notwithstanding her appeal to my cave man instincts.
Yabba,
I’m just a humble man with much to be humble about.
You should learn that lesson.
I love the Deanna Durbin version.
You can please yourself.
Upnorth,
Thanks but just part of a cohort of Labor women up this way who are determined to do whatever it takes to see a better future for our kids. And our country. 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:58 pm
C@t is butter still not popular back home?
Actually, since shows like My Kitchen Rules, Masterchef and all the overseas cooking shows, butter has become popular again.
I. of course, never wavered in my devotion to the natural spread. As my figure shows.
I actually made Broccoli and Gnocchi pan-fried in butter for dinner tonight. Yum!
========================
Aroi! I had Goat and Butter Curry last week in Bangkok. We have wonderful Indian food here. So I think even if Albo is caught with a Goat and Butter he has plausible deniability.
Actually sportsbet are betting 1.33 – 2.70 which is a 112.2% market big rake for a two horse race, football is usually around 106% .
Here’s a voice
Christa Ludwig
Mahler 2 (they’re reopening the Concert Hall with the Mahler 2)
Primeval Light
O little red rose!
Man lies in greatest need!
Man lies in greatest pain!
How I would rather be in heaven.
There came I upon a broad path
when came a little angel and wanted to turn me away.
Ah no! I would not let myself be turned away!
I am from God and shall return to God!
The loving God will grant me a little light,
Which will light me into that eternal blissful life!
https://youtu.be/rR6_F6Fxf1k
Sandman,
Anika Wells was on Q&A tonight, so it is possible a comment of hers there has either been misconstrued or misrepresented.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:02 pm
Upnorth,
Thanks but just part of a cohort of Labor women up this way who are determined to do whatever it takes to see a better future for our kids. And our country.
==========================
As Tom Burns’ used to say – doing gods work.
I didn’t see Anika Wells say that on QandA but that’s pretty bad. One the one hand I doubt it’ll get much play, but on the other hand I’m sure the Courier and the LNP will pounce on any scrap they can find.
I reckon Wells has been a good local member and will surely be re-elected?
C@t
A great opportunity to unseat Lucy wicks! Didn’t she go to some Pentecostal school for wannabe MPs or something? Or maybe I’m thinking of Angie bell.
In any case, she’s a fake Morrison crony who should be turfed out.
Upnorth,
Doing what is right. Doing the wrong thing has gone on for too long. It needs to stop.
And with that, it’s good night from me. 🙂
Frydenberg spent the whole pandemic abusing and undermining the Victorian government’s COVID measures, totally against public opinion(except that of Matthew Guy). Only Scomo in WA made himself more obnoxious, but Scomo’s seat isn’t in WA. No wonder Deutsche Bank man is in trouble, but he’s not the only Lib who is likely to be sent packing by a Teal. Dave Sharma doesn’t have much chance, Tim Wilson is obviously worried, Zimmermann too
“ I love the Deanna Durbin version.”
I’ll see you, your Deanna Durbin, and raise you a Joe Tripodi:
https://youtu.be/RCCN3vmk07Q
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:58 pm
Cat,
Best job in Australian politics is being booth captain for the ALP.
Go well!
====================
My booth got abolished by the Facist scum.
“Australians don’t trust this bloke (Albanese) with the economy”
says Paul Murray
Where is the evidence that Australians don’t trust him on the economy?
I want to see evidence on this!
They don’t trust Albanese but they trust Morrison with his record of:
a 1 trillion dollar deficit? (and nothing to show for it)
5.1% inflation the largest in what 20 years?
Interest rate rises next week to be paid on record house prices?
How can you sit there at sky news and waffle on complete BS?
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:10 pm
Upnorth,
Doing what is right. Doing the wrong thing has gone on for too long. It needs to stop.
And with that, it’s good night from me.
=========================
And goodnight from him.
hazza4257 @ #1090 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 11:09 pm
Totally Pentecostal and one of the first with Morrison to come on board into federal parliament for the Liberals. Her father was Principal of a Pentecostal school up here. She’s absolutely useless but knows how to smile nicely and organise a bunch of killers around her. They always try to intimidate me at the polls. I just take photos of them and report them to the AEC. 🙂
Nath what’s Krogs saying cobber?
Upnorth,
I hope you have your postal vote organised then!
Yeah it seems the common thread from people reporting out on the hustings is that people just can’t stand Morrison. That’s probably going to be enough to see his arse out the door, but I thought that would happen 2019. You’d think enough people have caught on now that he is worse than useless, never have I seen such a transparently odious figure in Australian politics. Lazy and incompetent to top it off. But I won’t count on anything until the votes have been tallied. The Labor campaign has hardly been one to get excited about, but it’s going to be a referendum on Morrison you’d think.