All the news that’s fit to print

Poll news, electorate news, preference news and more. Twenty-three days to go …

No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:

• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.

• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.

• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.

• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.

• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.

Local-level brush fires and controversies:

• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.

• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.

• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.

Preferences:

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.

• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.

Campaign meat and potatoes:

• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.

• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.

• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.

• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.

State affairs:

• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.

• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,170 comments on “All the news that’s fit to print”

Comments Page 21 of 24
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  1. David Elliot’s quote of “They cannot live in their million dollar houses in Bellevue Hill and Pittwater and then come out here and in an attempt to swindle a seat, just to get a bigger office in Canberra.” May be reasonable in Fowler but in Parramatta the median house price is about $1.5 million and it’s very much a middle class area, with the exception of the small parts of Guildford, Merrylands and Granville that are in the seat. Elsewhere in the seat most people would be living in ‘million dollar houses’.

  2. I agree with the general consensus, Stan Grant is awful, he let Stuart Robert and Campbell Newman ramble on for what seemed likes hours, while Annika Wells and Larissa Walters were constantly interrupted and talked over.
    You can see why Morrison offered Stan a liberal seat.

  5. Here’s one.

    Kinda pulling a few threads together – homoeroticism, camels, piano, French, hyphens …

    Jean-Yves Thibaude (yes, think so) plays the Saint-Saens no 5, the Egyptian. In the Concertgebouw, an acoustic marvel.

    Jump to 09:50 for the second movement. It quickly segues into beautiful Nubian love song (13:15) Saint-Saens heard the boatmen sing as he sailed down the Nile. He wrote the concerto in Luxor. (There’s a mad Chinoiserie bit that never seems to work for me, but hey.) The third movement is ridiculously challnging, a test piece.

    https://youtu.be/1IEYtta_ZsI

  6. Torchbearer @ #975 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 9:44 pm

    Q: Did Albo make any public appearances today?

    He comes out of isolation tomorrow….

    Think Labor managed Albo’s iso well as it ended up highlighting the team and the Libs flailing about. I don’t think there’d be any harm in Albo going half pace for a week and the team picking up the slack.

  7. [I don’t think there’d be any harm in Albo going half pace for a week and the team picking up the slack]
    Jason Clare and Jim Chalmers have both done so well this week.

  10. Yes, I can’t help fantasising that Jason Clare becomes Labor leader, that would totally upend the Morrison campaign.
    Albo really needs that team around him, being a one man does not work for him. But he nevertheless is way preferable to the shonk dodgy marketing man from Cronulla .

    And by the sounds of it, Bushfire Bill has had more than a few ales tonight lol

  12. Greensborough Growler @ #987 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 9:37 pm

    Yabba,

    Personally, I like Ravioli and Maltesers and our local Pizza suppliers runs with the name Sinners.

    So, I’ve got it covered.

    Such depth! But as long as you can wallow in your SIN, and confess your GUILT, you’ll probably proPell yourself along your sad little trench without experiencing any of the wonders created by exceptional human minds.

    Each to his own.

  14. Sportsbet now has Labor as better than 2:1 favorites to win (1.33 ALP:2.70 LIB). Wouldn’t know it if you judged by the amount of bickering here though.

  16. The big news of the week for me has been ALP’s odds go from $1.70 to $1.35 for the win. That is a huge shift. Might mean nothing but also might be a sense in the community of the race being done and dusted.

  17. Did you not see what happened at the last election? I don’t think betting companies have much more of a clue than we do when it comes to predicting elections.

  18. Anika Wells’ recommendation to Brisbane flood victims to move their house ‘further up their blocks’ just might cost her the seat of Lilley. I couldn’t watch the programme to its end due to the appalling performance of motor-mouth Stan Grant. First Fauziah Iqbal, now Grant. It hasn’t been a good election for the ABC.

  20. When you step back, it seems like Labor is almost certain to win with the polls how they are and everything that has happened this term.

    But I just can’t relax. Albo’s approval rating being stubbornly low is a big concern, especially with the huge number who seemingly just don’t know anything about him. (maybe they know him but just don’t have an opinion one way or the other? I’ll take that)

    But hey, Abbott won in 2013 and won convincingly. The anger level against this government isn’t the same as back then – it could never be with our corrupt media – but maybe it’s enough.

  21. Boerwar @ #863 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 8:34 pm

    GlenO
    Let’s see.
    Your post was ageist ‘old’.
    You used a tired old stereotype ‘grumpy’
    And then you used some sexist assumptions to go on with ‘man’.
    Have you had a look at a mirror recently?

    I’m amazed I need to explain all over again – I was mocking you. Not making serious comments, but drawing parallels with classic stereotypes. Your actual age is actually irrelevant. Your actual gender is also irrelevant. The joke was drawing the parallel between you and Grandpa Simpson yelling at clouds.

    You’ve gotten massively worked up over what is the equivalent of getting worked up over someone describing a good thing as “da bomb” in the 90s. Imagine someone getting offended over the violent nature of the calling something “da bomb”. That’s what you sound like.

  22. Labor into $1.33 with sportsbet!
    I saw $1.55 yesterday.

    Did I miss something today? Seemed a fairly standard day of shit from the government.

  23. Lukesays:
    Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:01 pm
    The big news of the week for me has been ALP’s odds go from $1.70 to $1.35 for the win. That is a huge shift. Might mean nothing but also might be a sense in the community of the race being done and dusted.
    ____
    I’m getting that sense too. I feel there has been a noticeable shift in language and tone in the last few days, particularly in the Murdoch press and commercial TV. Like they are passing trough the “denial” phase of grief and towards “acceptance” that Morrison might actually lose. Despite everything they’ve thrown at Albanese and Labor in these first 3 weeks, there’s been no significant movement in the polls. People appear to have made up their minds about Morrison. Some media commentators are definitely still in the “Anger” stage (Paul Murray) but many are now “bargaining” and others “depressed”. Reality bites.

    Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but the trend is against Morrison. Lets hope it continues all the way to 21 May.

  25. “The big news of the week for me has been ALP’s odds go from $1.70 to $1.35 for the win.”

    Which i think may have more to do with Morrison / LNP fwark ups than with Albo’s low visibility.

    Havent watched Q&A latley and certainly not inclined if Stan Grant is host. He’s a pompous git who tries to make EVERY appearance all about him.

  27. hazza4257 says:
    Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:01 pm

    Did you not see what happened at the last election? I don’t think betting companies have much more of a clue than we do when it comes to predicting elections.
    =====================
    Hazza, digger, mate we got William Bowe and that calculator thingy!!

  29. I think Jason Clare’s masterful handling on the press gaggle, with Chalmers following suit, has thrown a switch. Respect is the new vibe.

  31. Every time I’ve seen Frydenberg on the telly lately he’s looked solemn and tired. I love it!

    Surprising that of all the teal-targeted seats, Kooyong is one that might actually fall.

    There’ve been a lot of seat polls showing teals in winning/almost winning positions – I’m yet to see one showing them tanking. Probably a good sign of their prospects! If the Tory scum had such polling, surely they’d be briefing it out to the media.

  32. The dramatic shortening of Labor’s betting odds:

    Rightly or wrongly, many punters are suddenly thinking: “2007, tired, unpopular government, interest rate rise just as voting as already hurting… same same now.. QED.. Morrison out”.

  33. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:18 pm
    The Liberal Party’s candidate for the seat of Isaacs has admitted he lives more than 20 kilometres away from the address he told the Australian Electoral Commission he resides at, potentially putting him in breach of Commonwealth law.

    Candidate Robbie Beaton, who is pitching to voters as a “long-time local business owner”, claims in his electoral enrolment and Liberal Party preselection forms that he lives at the address of the Bridge Hotel in Mordialloc, which is in Melbourne’s southern suburbs in the Labor-held electorate of Isaacs. He actually lives in inner-eastern Camberwell.

    A Lying Reactionary makes a false declaration to the Commonwealth. Business as usual for the racket that passes itself off as a party of government.

  35. Scomo is also campaigning in 6-12% seats in qld… and after the inflation numbers the “lnp are better economic managers” is falling flat.

  37. Frydenberg is deploying the same unattractive, mean-spirited anger at Dr Monique Ryan as he did at Victoria and Victorians at large during this state’s most difficult days in Covid-19. Utterly stupid on his part, and for many, I’m sure, it’s a timely reminder of where this well-spring of loathing towards JF started.

  38. Stan Grant, and to a lesser extent David Speers, do love the attention to be all on them, that frustrates me as a viewer. Virginia Trioli I think is the best of the 3 current Q&A hosts by miles.
    Totally agree too that a week of Clare and Chalmers and Keneally and a few others taking up the slack for Albanese has done wonders for Labor. I could tell after Clare’s first press conference on Saturday as “attack dog” that the confidence of Labor supporters markedly lifted. Why has Labor never used this bloke properly before? He’s got star quality, he knows how to handle a press conference full of hostile pro Morrison Murdoch hacks.

  39. Q: I think Jo Dyer was on 5% in a Boothby poll – so no chance of being elected

    Boothby was never really an ‘independent (right) woman’ type seat…it is a Lib v Labor seat, with the Libs defending less than 2 percent margin from Labor.
    It should be easy Labor pickings on the night.

  40. Woke thug

    My understanding is ScoMo has been very much avoiding the appearance of defending safe seats – he is campaigning in Labor seats he probably won’t win. Didn’t Savva say Labor strategists think he’s either faking it or the lib internal polling is very different to Labor’s.

  42. @ William Bowe

    I can smell mutiny among your disciples. Petty fights, camels, choking and one line joks about Waters being on fire. I can almost taste it I tell you – the bickering and back biting.

    Sportsbet will only satisfy them momentarily, like a 2mm hose against an out of control cane fire.

    No they need fresh meat. Polls I tell you. New Polls. Seat Polls. State Polls. Issues Polls.

    I’ve seen this behaviour beore and the end isn’t pretty. So please sir can we have more.

  43. A Green candidate campaigns against himself. That makes a welcome change from their usual act, which is to campaign against Labor.

  44. In a 6 week campaign I suspect people get bored of seeing Morrison, Morrison, more Morrison and ALbo, Albo , Albo……this display of Labor heavyweights has really added some mid-campaign buzz and interest.

    Of course you need the team to be able to pull it off! Not sure Joyce, Cash, Frydenberg, Dutton would be quite as successful for the LNP!

  46. Upnorth: In the absence of polls old mate, which William can’t conjure up, let’s just enjoy the day of fun and silly stuff on Poll Bludger, the mood has definitely lifted.
    I’ll do a quick inventory of Sportsbet odds for the seats meant to be marginal. Last time I looked, Labor was favourite in 74 seats, with some others essentially tied, like Robertson.
    Teals were favourites in Warringah and Wentworth, Goldstein had Wilson and Daniel tied on 1.87 each, Monique Ryan’s odds had improved in Kooyong, North Sydney was still stuck on Zimmerman at 1.60 and Tink on 2.45.

  47. I sense it too, Itza

    It’s like Albo was grinding out a big enough lead in the third innings of a test match for 2.5 days (years) – no risks, slow accumulation – and now the bowlers are tearing through the opposition’s top and middle order.

    Labor with the momentum.

  48. Pissheadbloke aka Evan says:
    Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 10:24 pm

    Upnorth: In the absence of polls old mate, which William can’t conjure up, let’s just enjoy the day of fun and silly stuff on Poll Bludger, the mood has definitely lifted.
    I’ll do a quick inventory of Sportsbet odds for the seats meant to be marginal. Last time I looked, Labor was favourite in 74 seats, with some others essentially tied, like Robertson.
    Teals were favourites in Warringah and Wentworth, Goldstein had Wilson and Daniel tied on 1.87 each, Monique Ryan’s odds had improved in Kooyong, North Sydney was still stuck on Zimmerman at 1.60 and Tink on 2.45.
    ==================
    Roger that bloke and I will crack another sherbet. Waters on fire… I mean Fire-Fox is a damn funny cobber.

  50. Roll on the election! Hopefully the public is sick of the campaign and has switched off – and now nothing can persuade them to go crawling back to the tories

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