No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
So, the liberals seem happy with how the deves issue is playing. On the basis of polling we have, it’s limiting the swing against them in paramatta to a mere 1.5%, while surrendering a number of seats including warringah, Kooyong, Wentworth, act 2nd senate etc.
It may be that it was a sensible move – if they already expected to lose every head to head with a teal, then losing by a bit more is fine. If it means they at least hold on to a small clutch of seats in the outer suburbs they can at least avoid the wa scenario where the nationals get to choose the opposition leader.
It was always a desperate play, but we are now seeing just how desperate.
The 2pp measure shows a labor win, but understated how poorly the coalition will do. There’s a number of seats where polling credits liberals with around 2/3rds of the 2PP and a 2PP swing to the liberals but predicts a teal victory. Every labor voter polled who intends to tactically vote teal gives around 55% of a 2PP vote to the liberals.
I think this will be the last election where 2PP is used as a metric.
It appears the media have misread the public mood. Deves’ views are more aligned with the general population than most think – even in Warringah. She might even win – and save Frydenburg, Sharma, Zimmerman, Celia Hammond and Falinski in the process….
Mr Bowe, to quote,”Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue.”
Should that be Equality Australia is “keen” to etc etc ?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-s-khaki-election-risks-turning-into-dad-s-army-20220427-p5agff.html
And the media let Morrison off the hook when he hid from questions at the weekend.
Bloomberg UK
@BloombergUK
Apr 26
Brexit caused U.K. imports from the EU to collapse and led many small British businesses to give up exporting to Europe altogether
That’s according to an analysis of trade in the first full year after the U.K. left the single market and customs union
___________________________________________________________
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-26/brexit-drives-rise-in-u-k-food-prices-and-lifts-cost-of-living?
@William Bowe
snippets from the previous thread:-
“The greying of Australia has made older voters more important than ever at this election. The share of the electoral roll comprised of elderly voters has increased consistently over the past decade, and people aged over 65 now make up 24.1 per cent of the 17.2 million Australians enrolled to vote on May 21. They could prove decisive in a handful of battleground seats ….. At next month’s federal election, there will be 4.2 million voters over 65 and 3.1 million voters under 29, according to data from the Australian Electoral Commission.”
___________________________________________________________
William I have been unable to find the full data tables for Newspoll (whereas in the UK full data tables are always linked and easy to find) so could I ask you whether the Newspoll sample looks in line with these latest enrollment numbers
ie Are they sampling enough oldies?
It appears that the massive submarine debacle may now have serious competition given that Retired navy chief Vice Admiral David Shackleto says Australia should scrap $45b future frigate program because the Hunter Class warships are not powerful enough.
Adding fuel to the fire, Dutton has confirmed his departmental secretary would be having frank discussions with representatives from BAE while in the UK. Does anybody have a few seaworthy rowboats? National security is becoming a national disaster in this election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-28/former-navy-chief-says-scrap-australia-frigate-deal-lack-power/101020798
23 days to go? I am not sure the long campaign is going to work out for Morrison. The narrative of the ALP in chaos was only ever going to last so long.
I’m not getting this warringah gambit at all. I must admit I stay well away from the newspapers and the topsy turvey land they present, but how will some bigoted comments from a privileged white woman living the life of Reilly in eastern Sydney turn votes elsewhere? In live in Brisbane so a 1000km from steak and kidney but is it now so different down there that this is a thing? It all seems a bit unfathomable and even desperate.
And how many people are playing close enough attention to the detail of the bigoted candidates statements as opposed to the general narrative the “Scotty’s gone messed up again”?
Most people don’t read papers or even watch the news too intensely.
Given that most issues appear to be running against the government (at least to a small degree) in this election campaign, it appears that they are relying on a Stockholm syndrome strategy.
The aim appears to be to convince voters that despite the fact the Coalition got us into this position after nine years, illogically, it would be dangerous to now give Labor a go. The emphasis as always is on fear of change.
Several long discussions in recent days with friends and family in Sydney’s north and west. Many are known Liberal voters.
In terms of politics and voting intention, much more ambivalence than in previous years – lots of specifics to whinge about. Not so rusted on this time.
Two takeaways are:
– Labor’s small target policy is working, and Liberal attacks are neutered – the ‘what does Albo stand for’ is a huge upgrade on the ‘we don’t like Shorten’ of previous campaigns.
– not a single person has mentioned Katherine Deves or transphobia
I doubt transgender issues will play a big role in who you vote for.Cost of living , climate change ,and very clear corruption by coalition and their Oligarchs will be significant. I accept there are not enough mindless idiots around who will take the transgender bait as a vote changer
Australians don’t trust politicians.
Morrison finds himself at the lower end of the trustworthy list.
At the moment with just twenty three days to go, it appears that enough voters have decided that their ability to remain obsequiously single minded and tribal is unsatisfactory.
Enough voters see the need for a clean up.
Morrison is down to “extreme miracle” status and some form of divine intervention.
A federal ICAC may well rein in the horses!
Lots of voters want to attend early polling and get it done
There are currently around 10.3 million properties in Australia and of these 6 million have mortgages against them (6 Apr 2022).
Financial buffers for some notwithstanding, along with increasing food and fuel prices, when combined with the above statistic, this scenario might unsettle the average household as voting approaches.
Home loan statistics in Australia – 2022 Stats | Mozohttps://mozo.com.au › home-loan-statistics
And it seems there’s yet more trouble in the Coalition (according to the Oz) over climate change as Bridget McKenzie backs new coal-fired power stations while Morrison announces he’s supposedly pulling the plug on a proposed Queensland plant. Let’s hope disunity really is death.
My takeaway from William’s introduction is that the public polling evidence indicates no impact of the trans “issue”, while the secret internal polling whose insights have been shared with certain journalists, and eagerly reported by them, supposedly indicates that the “quiet Australians” are seething with outrage about it and wielding baseball bats. Ok, let’s see. I know where my money is.
Freya,
Where in Europe are you now?
I have just got back to my home in Sainte Foy La Grande, after spending a week taking my mother around the Emerald Isle.
We had a lovely time driving around Ireland, and were lucky enough to spend time in the ancestral home of Lisgoold. We caught up with our many Fitzgerald relatives, and a VERY good time was held by all.
As a Qlder, my gob has long stopped being smacked by what motivates some folk to cast votes for certain candidates and not for others.
Looking at the Government Gazette this morning…
3 weeks out and Uber Partisan Peta Credlin wastes her Thursday opinion piece in the SmearStralian on Liberal infighting over the teal threat.
Existential threat to Libs as teals drag party left
Should these green-left independents win seats off the Liberals, their impact won’t be only to elect Labor but also to drive the whole political spectrum further to the left.
Meanwhile the phoney peace between the Libs and Nats over Climate Change is splintering..
Split widens on Australia’s coal-fired future
Regionalisation Minister Bridget McKenzie backs new coal-fired power stations as Scott Morrison pulls plug on proposed plant in Queensland.
And on that pesky Solomon Island failure
Miner warned of China land grab in Solomons
The Australian owner of a Solomon Islands nickel mine warned the Morrison government three years ago that the country’s Prime Minister was trying to hand its mining lease to a Chinese rival.
And a striking absence of articles critical of Labor
Vale Klaus Schulze.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/apr/27/klaus-schulze-german-electronic-music-pioneer-dies-aged-74
These are a couple of my favourites from DSOM series.
Klaus Schulze & Pete Namlook – The Dark Side Of The Moog 5 (1996)
“Psychedelic Brunch”
https://youtu.be/8Idd8ll7QV0
Klaus Schulze & Pete Namlook – The Dark Side Of The Moog 7 (1998)
“Obscured by Klaus”
https://youtu.be/xYU2l_MXXS0
Ronni Salt
Kooyong 200 – a private donor’s club founded and operated by Josh Frydenberg – last year raised $1.1 million towards Frydenberg’s election campaign.
Josh Frydenberg has never revealed any of the individual donor’s names.
They are all secret.
#hypocrisy
https://t.co/GCxDSPJT6w
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:29 am
National security is becoming a national disaster in this election.
Not just this election.. it’s always been a disaster & will be so long as the military are involved in selection & specification of hardware & systems…
Is there a disturbance in the force?
The Daily ToiletPaper has some desultory negative articles about Kristina Keneally, but otherwise sneaks in this…
Is the Liberals’ ‘safest seat’ about to fall
Long-serving Liberal powerbroker Paul Fletcher’s fight to retain his seat of Bradfield against ‘teal independent’ Nicolette Boele will be as fierce as any election day battle.
And a piece from MickMack…(showing the lack of sub-editor quality control in this shitsheet)
‘Woke parade’: Riverina MP’s view on trans athletes
The former Deputy Prime Minister reaffirms his stance on transgender issue and beliefs ordinary Australians want the polications to talk about ‘bread and butter issues’.
I am not all that interested in sport but I can’t see how this gambit would be a big vote turner. I guess those who have a strong affinity with the Bible or the other religious tomes may really take issue with all this transexual in sport stuff as being against the word of God as mediated by the heirarchy of the church ( ie: a bunch of blokes), but all I can recall is a 40ish weightlifter from kiwi and now an American swimmer. Maybe these pentacostalists are more plugged into the US than me and maybe I’m out of the loop but I think this election is about the incompetent untrustworthy government we have and to give it the heave ho, not some uppercrust Pauline clone who has swapped the various ethnic groups for transexuals.
The Deves matter reminds me of the Marriage Law Postal Survey. I don’t recall how much boosterism there was of the conservative side, but the fact that they wouldn’t accept the conservative standard of a parliamentary majority at least makes me think they had a deal of optimism about the conservativism of the electorate.
I don’t think they realise that the Liberal party is elected for a powerful defence strategy, a strong foreign policy, and a roaring economy. To them politics is the culture war, but I guess most people don’t really know what a woke agenda is if it screamed in their ears at 5am.
As to the question of how well it plays out, well, I guess there’s many different ways to ask the question. The only one that matters is, “If a federal election were held today, who would receive your first preference?”. But I’m sure there’s questions like “Do you think biological males should be allowed to compete against girls in swimming competitions?”
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:33 am
Is there a disturbance in the force?
—
Possibly. I’ve noticed the Herald Sun here in Melbourne has been ignoring the election on their front pages a bit more in the past week.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Rather a large collection today.
Niki Savva begins her contribution this week with, “Whether through complacency, neglect or ineptitude, the long promised khaki election, which was expected to help deliver another victory for Scott Morrison, is in danger of turning into a revamped Dad’s Army.” Another good read from Niki.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-s-khaki-election-risks-turning-into-dad-s-army-20220427-p5agff.html
Shane Wright and Katina Curtis write that the biggest increase in consumer prices since 2000 is expected to force the Reserve Bank into an interest rate rise just days out from the May 21 federal election, bringing the debate over cost-of-living back to the centre of the campaign in its final critical days.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/reserve-bank-facing-election-rate-rise-after-biggest-inflation-growth-in-22-years-20220427-p5agmf.html
Wright reckons there will be more questions of the RBA if it doesn’t raise the interest rate than if it doesn’t.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-elementary-case-closed-for-rba-election-rate-hike-20220427-p5agdo.html
And John Kehoe declares that the RBA should get off the fence and raise interest rates.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-must-show-courage-in-election-rate-rise-20220427-p5aghj
The surge in inflation to its highest annual rate in more than 20 years comes at a difficult time for the Coalition because it has campaigned hard on its claim to be a superior economic manager, says the editorial in the SMH.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cost-of-living-rise-ruins-coalition-s-pitch-on-economic-management-20220427-p5agn0.html
The Australian inflation rate gives the lie to Morrison’s claims of strong economic management, argues Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/apr/27/australian-inflation-rate-figures-give-the-lie-to-scott-morrison-claims-of-strong-economic-management
Labor has raised grave concerns about the home affairs minister’s use of “privileged access to intelligence reporting”, after Karen Andrews publicly alluded to a potential attempt by China at interference in the federal election, writes Daniel Hurst.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/28/labor-gravely-concerned-by-karen-andrews-claim-about-potential-china-election-interference
Scott Morrison has agreed to a second election debate with Anthony Albanese in a move that challenges the Labor leader to commit to the free-to-air forum to be broadcast in prime time on Sunday, May 8.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-accepts-another-leaders-debate-as-labor-watches-albanese-s-health-20220427-p5agnq.html
Paul Karp reveals that the Morrison government has directed an extra $10bn to private schools since 2018 while public schools are underfunded by at least $6.5bn every year, according to a new report. Well, here’s something a Laor government could get its teeth into! It’s a disgrace.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/28/private-schools-received-an-extra-10bn-funding-in-coalition-special-deals-study-finds
If any serious policy issues are aired during this election, it’s unlikely school education will feature. Yet our framework of schools is an evolving disaster. And while there are critical differences between the parties, none of the policy offerings address the root causes of our educational malaise, writes Chris Bonnor who throws out three priority things he would do for schools if her were the minister.
https://johnmenadue.com/if-i-was-the-minister-for-education-these-are-the-three-priority-things-i-would-do-for-schools/
David Crowe tells us that coal mining companies would have to pay just $1.20 per tonne of coal to offset some of their carbon under a Labor policy to meet a United Nations target of net zero emissions by 2050, according to calculations that sharpen the debate over the cost of acting on climate change.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-climate-plan-would-have-little-financial-impact-on-coal-grattan-20220427-p5aghx.html
What is Labor’s Safeguard Mechanism plan? Is it a ‘sneaky carbon tax’ or a sensible way to cut emissions? Mike Foley answers the questions.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-is-labor-s-safeguard-mechanism-is-it-a-sneaky-carbon-tax-or-a-sensible-way-to-cut-emissions-20220427-p5agkd.html
Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s attempt to frame Labor’s emissions policy as a “sneaky carbon tax” met with an indifferent reception from the business lobby yesterday, writes James Robertson who says Morrison’s carbon tax attack fizzled in a net-zero world.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/27/morrison-carbon-tax-net-zero/
Now it’s the Coalition’s turn to walk both sides of the street on climate, says David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/now-it-s-the-coalition-s-turn-to-walk-both-sides-of-the-street-on-climate-20220427-p5aght.html
Meanwhile AGL, Australia’s top power supplier, has struck a deal to buy a biogas firm in its latest move to diversify away from fossil fuels.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-strikes-deal-to-buy-biogas-firm-in-low-carbon-energy-shift-20220427-p5agl2.html
The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) has urged Labor to clarify the dates and size of emissions reductions it will enforce on business if elected and declared it does not want the Coalition’s net zero pledge to be “dead” as suggested by former resources minister Matt Canavan.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/mining-lobby-wants-total-commitment-to-net-zero-20220427-p5agf2
The latest Coalition climate catastrophe, Senator Matt Canavan declaring national net zero policy “dead,” rings alarm bells for what’s ahead if the Morrison government is returned to office. Meanwhile, our new rival in the Pacific region, China, is seizing the mantle of climate leadership. Blair Palese reports on Australia’s greatest failure as a nation.
https://michaelwest.com.au/net-zero-transition-china-world-leave-australia-behind-on-climate/
Michelle Grattan says that warring within Coalition over 2050 target brings some gold dust for the ‘teals’.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-warring-within-coalition-over-2050-target-brings-some-gold-dust-for-teals-181944
Net zero by 2050 will hit a major timing problem technology can’t solve. We need to talk about cutting consumption, argues Mark Diesendorf.
https://theconversation.com/net-zero-by-2050-will-hit-a-major-timing-problem-technology-cant-solve-we-need-to-talk-about-cutting-consumption-181951
Kaye Lee writes about “Josh Frydenberg – the smiling conman”.
https://theaimn.com/josh-frydenberg-the-smiling-conman/
The Australian Public Service will have more than a thousand previously outsourced service delivery jobs restored if Labor is risen to power next month, the party promised on Wednesday. Three government entities delivering vital services to Australians are in-line to be boosted by $500 million under the Labor plan to reinvest savings from cutting wasteful use of private external labour. A purge of contractors and consultants used to perform the work that would otherwise be done by public servants could reap as much as $3 billion in budget savings over four years, the party claimed.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7715580/labor-to-purge-3b-aps-contractor-consultants-bill/?cs=24204
Nick McKenzie and Sumeyya Ilanbey tell us that Daniel Andrews has been secretly grilled by Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog as part of an investigation that has found the Labor Party’s culture is rotten and encouraged the serious misuse of public resources.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/anti-corruption-watchdog-calls-out-victorian-labor-s-rotten-culture-20220427-p5agdx.html
And The Age says that Victoria’s anti-corruption commission will probe allegations of serious misconduct against a senior police officer amid claims he used his position for personal gain, misused police information, maintained inappropriate associations and falsified evidence. This does not have a good look about it.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/anti-corruption-watchdog-to-probe-senior-police-officer-s-alleged-misconduct-20220427-p5aglu.html
The “teal independents” threatening to snatch once blue-ribbon Liberal seats are not only about changing the government but about changing the Liberal Party, too, moans Peta Credlin.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/existential-threat-to-libs-asteals-drag-party-left/news-story/7c9aaf7f742e45e45eafa618a6925d24
Alexandra Smith opines that Dominic Perrottet is fanning dangerous flame with his comments on the transgender issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/dominic-perrottet-fans-dangerous-flame-with-comments-on-trans-issue-20220427-p5aggx.html
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has taken the credit for an $11 million federal grant to a Queensland drag racing venue in a key marginal seat where the Coalition will need the minor party’s help to defeat Labor at the election. David Crowe writes that Labor is crying foul over the government grant after similar decisions over the past few years when taxpayer cash has been promised by One Nation rather than announced by a government minister.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-fury-after-one-nation-claims-credit-for-11m-federal-grant-20220426-p5agc5.html
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will target Liberal moderate MPs in key seats across the country and push its supporters to preference Labor over several of Scott Morrison’s most vulnerable candidates, writes The Australian’s Matthew Denholm.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2022-liberals-backing-for-jacqui-lambie-sparks-preference-war-with-one-nations-pauline-hanson/news-story/787da8728e390736591b22266969532e
Megan Gorry, who is following the ICAC inquiry, reports that it was told the Sydney mayor at the centre of the inquiry allegedly requested an invitation to the Shanghai wedding of a Chinese businessman whose company attempted to win approval to build an apartment tower at Rhodes.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mayor-allegedly-sought-invite-to-developer-s-shanghai-wedding-icac-told-20220427-p5agft.html
Josh Taylor writes that the prime minister’s office has refused to release any text messages between Scott Morrison and prominent QAnon supporter Tim Stewart, claiming they are not official government documents, following a two-year freedom of information battle.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/27/pms-office-wont-release-any-texts-with-qanon-friend-arguing-they-would-not-be-official-documents
The Conversation has asked five experts to compare the ICAC offerings of the major parties.
https://theconversation.com/how-do-the-major-parties-rate-on-an-independent-anti-corruption-commission-we-asked-5-experts-181077
The rental crisis engulfing the country should be a wake-up call for both major parties as they fight the election campaign on cost of living issues, welfare support groups say, as data shows there are almost no affordable rentals across Australia, writes Rachel Clun who points out that a rental affordability snapshot conducted by Anglicare found less than 1 per cent of rentals were affordable for people on income support, while those on the minimum wage could afford just 2 per cent of available rentals across the country.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rental-crisis-a-blind-spot-for-politicians-in-cost-of-living-campaign-20220426-p5ag6l.html
According to the SMH, Sydney’s runaway property prices have been reigned (sic) in by a significant market slowdown, recording their weakest result since early stages of the pandemic.
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/apartment-price-falls-signal-end-to-sydney-s-pandemic-property-boom-20220426-p5ag8g.html
The Australian tells us that National Disability Insurance Agency staff are under pressure to employ a “no initial contact call” process when assessing thousands of participants’ claims for a review of their NDIS plan. The new system turns on its head the previous practice of NDIA assessors routinely conducting a telephone interview with NDIS participants or their carers. This is a likely cause of the explosion of cases making their way to the AAT.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/more-ndis-appeals-being-knocked-back-without-a-phone-call-to-discuss-claim/news-story/6ba25c81a48a2dced34f91bae35c0c50
Spending on the National Disability Insurance Scheme is expected to blow out to $64 billion a year in 2030, even higher than previously estimated, according to an external actuarial review commissioned by disability ministers, explains Tom Burton.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/ndis-cost-to-blow-out-to-64b-by-2030-new-report-20220427-p5agg1
Christopher Knaus writes that the former attorney general Christian Porter rejected a plea for mercy from six Indonesians who said they were wrongly jailed as children using unreliable evidence, telling them they had no chance of success despite their lawyers pointing to a landmark ruling years earlier finding a miscarriage of justice in a similar case.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/28/christian-porter-denied-justice-plea-from-indonesians-jailed-in-australia-when-they-were-children
Andrew Tillett writes that a former navy chief has urged the government to dump the troubled $45 billion future frigate program, arguing the Hunter class warships cannot carry enough missiles for self-defence and to attack enemies. In a damning assessment for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, retired vice-admiral David Shackleton said the navy should instead build a local version of the United States’ existing destroyers or, failing that, revive construction of the navy’s Hobart class Air Warfare Destroyer fleet.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/former-navy-chief-urges-government-to-axe-frigates-deal-20220427-p5agfd
David Soloman chronicles how the Coalition has lost its foreign policy edge.
https://johnmenadue.com/government-loses-foreign-policy-edge/
In an astonishing development, Harriet Alexandra tells us that a former Special Air Service soldier who testified for war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith at his defamation suit has been arrested and charged with harming and resisting a Commonwealth official following his turn in the witness box.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/witness-for-ben-roberts-smith-hit-with-criminal-charges-after-finishing-his-evidence-20220427-p5agn1.html
Looking at the case itself, Michaela Whitbourn reports that a second former Special Air Service soldier has supported Ben Roberts-Smith in his Federal Court defamation case, backing the war veteran’s denial that he was involved in the alleged murder of Afghan prisoners.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/second-former-sas-soldier-backs-roberts-smith-in-defamation-case-20220427-p5aghr.html
According to Anthony Galloway, Australia will resist sending soldiers and police to Solomon Islands if they are forced to operate alongside Chinese security personnel as concern grows that Beijing will deploy brutal and repressive tactics in the Pacific island nation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-doesn-t-want-its-forces-operating-alongside-ruthless-chinese-in-solomon-islands-20220427-p5agj0.html
Angus Thompson reports that an industrial umpire has said a political staffer to Labor senator Kristina Keneally fired for allegedly threatening a former government minister over his interactions with a Liberal hopeful should have been given a right of reply before he was sacked.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sacked-keneally-staffer-may-have-had-metoo-defence-over-alleged-threats-tribunal-20220427-p5agmo.html
After years of inaction toward saving our koalas, another term for the Morrison Government would result in their extinction, writes Sue Arnold.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/vote-for-the-morrison-government-and-say-goodbye-to-our-koalas,16299
Influenza cases in NSW more than tripled between March and April, as experts warn the state is headed for a “significant flu epidemic” after the pandemic virtually wiped out the disease.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-headed-for-significant-flu-epidemic-as-cases-triple-20220427-p5agfi.html
Sarah McPhee fills us in on what transpired in court yesterday with the $15m taxation fraud case. The key defendant is the son of a federal taxation commissioner.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/fee-free-payroll-services-in-alleged-105m-tax-fraud-too-good-to-be-true-jury-told-20220427-p5ageq.html
Jack Niall says that fans must come first, before players, in the next AFL broadcast deal.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/fans-must-come-first-before-players-in-next-broadcast-deal-20220427-p5aggj.html
The supreme court’s coming abortion ruling may spark a new era of US unrest, warns Stephen Marche.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/supreme-court-abortion-new-era-unrest
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Alan Moir
Dionne Gain
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Mark Knight
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Peter Broelman
Leak
From the US
Freya Stark says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 4:49 am
It appears the media have misread the public mood. Deves’ views are more aligned with the general population than most think – even in Warringah. She might even win – and save Frydenburg, Sharma, Zimmerman, Celia Hammond and Falinski in the process….
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We’ll find out soon enough whether bigotry has a home in Australia, large enough to save Deves and others. But I expect that after the election we’ll never see you again.
I guarantee you that the shit they’re using to say Deves is playing well is polling doing the reverse of the Redbridge, asking questions like “do you agree that men who have a sex change shouldn’t play against women in sport?” or similar and saying “see people agree with Deves”, ignoring that the opprobrium against her is not because of the trans sport issue specifically, and that it really is a bottom of the barrel issue for deciding votes.
As WB noted in the intro to this thread
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson told The Australian her party would look to punish moderate Liberals s via low placings on how-to-vote cards because they are not “conservative enough”.
Only four ‘moderate’ Liberal seats had PHON candidates in 2019.
Brisbane Trevor Evans PHON 2.5% PV (2019)
Hasluck Ken Wyatt PHON 5.3% PV (2019)
Leichardt Warren Entsch PHON 6.5% PV (2019)
Moncreiff Angie Bell PHON 6.4% PV (2019)
The 10 newly minted candidates PHON is running in moderate seats which PHON did not contest in 2019 are –
SEAT Current MP
Banks David Coleman
Bass Bridget Archer
Bennelong John Alexander
Bradfield Paul Fletcher
Goldstein Tim Wilson
Mackellar Jason Falinski
North Sydney Trent Zimmerman
Reid Fiona Martin
Sturt James Stevens
Wentworth Dave Sharma
Not much help for Labor here except in Brisbane, Hasluck, Leichardt and possibly Banks, Bass and Reid. The Climate Teals might get some PHON help in Bennelong, Goldstein, North Sydney, Mackellar, Bradfield and Wentworth. PHON is a pain the … but if it helps in these seats I will take that.
Nick McKenzie and Sumeyya Ilanbey tell us that Daniel Andrews has been secretly grilled by Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog as part of an investigation that has found the Labor Party’s culture is rotten and encouraged the serious misuse of public resources.
_____________________
No surprise there. It’s what I have been telling this blog for years.
I’ve already decided who I’m voting for so have more or less turned the election off until the actual day.
My time is being spent talking with my other half who is as politically engaged as a newt about how she will vote.
I’ve given her a rundown on how I’ll vote and why with my selections to use as a guide while firmly suggesting who her number one should go to and why (something we both agree on as it happens).
Will it make a difference? Dunno. She’s her own person.
Taylormade @ #32 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:49 am
And ignoring in the Liberal Party.
#FICACNow!
If Morrison wins, it will only be because of the extreme media bias, like last time, and it would signify a toxic, corrupted and manipulated society we have become.
Taylormade
Just wait till the federal Integrity/ICAC find out how rotten the corruption is in lib/nats and their corrupt propaganda media units
Labor launches fear campaign telling voters they could get three more years of Scott Morrison.
Its the lib/nats and media who are scared of a federal Integrity/ICAC
Cronus @ #7 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 6:29 am
I remember a former Coalition Defence Minister, David Johnston, saying he wouldn’t even trust Australia to build canoes:
Defence Minister David Johnston has warned he would not trust the Government-owned defence builder, the Australian Submarine Corporation (ASC), to build a canoe.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-25/johnston-wouldnt-trust-submarine-corporation-to-build-a-canoe/5917502
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I have never seen a single government headed into an election with so many failures evident. National security, inflation, housing affordability, wages, climate change and of course, corruption and accountability.
The link to the report on why the navy may need to change the frigate choice is here. Another wasted decade. Albo’s suggestion to build some more air warfare destroyers in the mean time is looking sensible.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-hunter-class-frigate-program-must-be-stopped-and-redirected/
Is any Defence project proceeding correctly? At this stage I wouldn’t trust Dutton to deliver a canoe.
Bert,
You look after yourself and your loved ones. 🙂
The people stirred up over “Trans in Sport” would nearly all be either Coalition voters or Far Right voters whose preferences return their votes to the Coalition. I think that this type of “reverse virtue” signalling serves mainly to keep them in the fold in cases where they might otherwise be tempted to stray on economic grounds or because they realise that the Coalition are a bunch of lying incompetents.
Sandman, Gilmore has a one notion candidate
This year, apparently everyone has a One Notion candidate.
The fact the Libs feel the need to provide vague assertions their “play” is working – despite actual data suggesting otherwise shows it’s a frantic spin job, currently backfiring.
We need to stop playing into this almost certainly failed gambit.
Deves and trans issues to me looks like an attempt to get one nation and united party voters to put the liberal as a first preference or at least higher than labor.
Scott: hmm, i didnt consider that an ICAC might get their hooks into the media as well, sounds promising.
Taylormade says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:49 am
It’s what I have been telling this blog for years.
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Well there’s a hard truth for you to digest. It’s evident that no one cares what you think.
Soc,
Did you see the report that Marise Payne has replaced Peter Jennings at ASPI with her Chief of Staff?
Putting cuckoos in the nest because they either want to continue the politicisation of everything should they win, or to stymie Labor should they lose. Bastards.
A report from Robertson.
Someone has taken up the mantle of applying googly eyes onto the posters for the Liberal MP, Lucy Wicks. Genius move by whoever thought of it in Kooyong. It’s gone viral!