No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
So
“Secret” in regards an agreement
“leaked” in regards an ICAC Report
So what goes on?
And anyone who followed the ICAC public hearings, which were reported on in the media, would not be surprised by the findings
The fall out is what it is – expulsions, loss of endorsements, administrators, audit of members by the administrators
Now ICAC move on – past the low hanging fruit referred to them by the Parliament (so on government numbers) to the other side of politics
I wonder if there will be any whistleblowers?
Night C@t. Get the car? Talk tomorrow.
Lucy Wicks doesn’t even live on the Central Coast and she is only in the Robertson electorate at election time. C@t can correct me on that, but that is the general vibe about Ms Wicks. Labor’s Dr Gordon Reid seems like a terrific candidate, hope he wins, Andrew Clenell did say on Sky News that the Libs are worried about retaining the seat.
@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:15 pm
Upnorth,
I hope you have your postal vote organised then!
===========================
They are in the mail for Mrs Upnorth and I as we sleep.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:07 pm
Sandman,
Anika Wells was on Q&A tonight, so it is possible a comment of hers there has either been misconstrued or misrepresented.
–
Yep that’s why I asked questions. I can’t imagine her being so stupid or insensitive. She has done a good job going in to bat for flood victims in SE Qld as far I can tell. Maybe she was as Cat suggests taken out of context or whatever. I hope she gets a gig in an Albanese Government. She is sharp on her feet and knows her brief whenever she speaks in the HOR or does a presser. Her and Terri Butler (Griffith) add plenty to the Labor team IMHO.
Short, but surprisingly not paywalled
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/moderna-seeks-us-authorization-for-covid-vaccine-in-children-under-6-statement/news-story/0b8095d7b0fa439e8ce1cffe00bb337c
Pfizer elected to use a 3 microgram dose in their trial on 0.5-5 year olds. Which was OK for the 0.5-2 year olds I think (on surrogate markers of antibody levels) but wasn’t so good for the 2-5 year olds. Then rather than restart a trial with a higher dose they have continued the same trial by giving a third 3 microgram dose. And I think they are waiting for the results of this before submitting a request to the Government for emergency approval
The Pfizer dose for 5-12 year olds is 10 micrograms, and I think 30 micrograms for adults. I can’t remember which side the 12-16 year olds fall under.
I saw Wells’ comment – it’s not great but in context (especially when you consider QLD houses) it’s not a clanger. It will be ridden by those who need to but doubt it’ll cost her the seat.
It was an important point – if householders CAN mitigate their own flood risk (reduce their insurance)- ie, rebuild in different part of the block etc – why shouldn’t they?
Hear We Go Again at 9.32pm re mortgage debt 2000-2010
Fascinating post. Whilst I’ve never used it professionally, I have a economics degree and I tend to follow news bits like Alan Kohler.
This is a preface to saying, I am not aware of any public debate about the dramatic rise in mortgage debt over that decade.
The were things about ‘housing affordability’ and Howard would say ‘people also appreciate that the value of their house has gone up’ etc.
Were there any more technical discussions about alternative policies to cope with the GST that wouldn’t create a hyper-inflated housing market? Were there any public discussions?
If you have links, that’d be great…
Temporary but hope.
“A Malaysian man set to be executed in Singapore for drug trafficking was granted a reprieve on Thursday, campaigners said, a day after the hanging of a mentally disabled man sparked an outcry.
Datchinamurthy Kataiah was scheduled to be hanged on Friday after several years on death row in the city-state, which has some of the world’s toughest anti-drugs laws.
But the 36-year-old won a bid to get the execution postponed because he has another case pending before the courts, activists said.
That case, with other death row prisoners, relates to correspondence allegedly being copied and sent to authorities without their consent, anti-death penalty campaigner Kirsten Han said.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2301962/malaysian-facing-execution-in-singapore-wins-reprieve
Yeh they just adjusted it’s actually 1.45 – 2.7 106% they were just trying to get people to bite at the 1.33 and bet into 112 market but obviously couldn’t sell Labor at that price so normal transmission resumes.
I’m not all that familiar with Brisbane, but wouldn’t building the traditional Queenslander, house on stilts design be the go-to design for flood prone areas?
Mj
Of course, Labor wants it to be all about Morrison – the tories and the Tory media are trying to make it about anything but, but I doubt it’ll work.
cat,
Congratulations. But, wthout telling you how to suck eggs…………..
1. Identify your voter ingress. Get your banners up early.
2. Tell your assistants to attempt to get an ALP HTV in every voters hand.
3. Tell your assistants to back off if there is any blow back
4. The Greens are not your friends. Do not hand out their cards to be nice!
5. Suck up to the Poll Meister early on. It sorts out any issues they might have about distances from the polling booth etc.
6. Instruct your fellow scrutineers they must not touch the ballots. No helping.
7. Watch the count and work out where the preferences are going asap.
Good luck!
Upnorth @ #1109 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 11:20 pm
The hanged a mentally handicapped man (low IQ) a few days ago for 40 gms heroin trading when he was 21. Read this:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/singapore-executes-intellectually-impaired-man-after-tearful-family-farewell-20220427-p5agdl.html
Ok William, this blog has deteriorated into petty squabbling. So how about you liven it up by discussing the stuff that ISN’T fit to print?
Queensland was the first part of the British Commonwealth to abolish the death penalty under the Premiership of Labors’ E.G. “Red Ted” Theodore in 1922.
After its abolition, the murder and serious crime rate dropped as those who committed the worst crimes were not as desperate to cover up their actions.
Its barbaric and a constant source of conflict in my household as Mrs Upnorth hails from Singapore and takes a different view.
I look at the front page of the Herald-Sun in Melbourne most days online (an image of it is at the very bottom of their webpage on the right. You used to be able to click on it to get a bigger version but no more). Someone noted here a few days ago – the main cover stories have not been directly about the election for several days. Which is interesting – maybe the anti-Labor diatribe headlines don’t actually sell many papers?
”
Scepticsays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:13 pm
BK says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Liberal Party investigates leak of Deves’ Warringah nomination form
Katherine Deves’ nomination for the seat of Warringah was proposed by barrister Bridie Nolan, the new wife of Warringah MP Zali Steggall’s ex-husband, and she received a written reference from Sky News’ Brisbane bureau chief Adam Walters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-investigates-leak-of-deves-warringah-nomination-form-20220428-p5agxp.html
Maybe Rupert was impressed by the puppies…
Edit
Holding her up for the page 2 tradies vote.
”
Maybe she reminded him of the Third Page in “The Sun” of UK. 🙂
I’m surprised people come on here to argue with William when he’s the one paying god knows how much to host this site.
Not accusing any recent commenters of doing this.
From afr; Senator Hanson said she would direct One Nation preferences to Labor ahead of what she called “left-leaning Liberals” in key seats “in a bid to protect Australian values and ensure strong conservative representation in the new parliament”.
This is great, one step closer to the destruction of the LNP, the only real Liberals will be independents, the LNP will be left with only conservatives, and their sympathizers.
ItzaDream says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:24 pm
Yes I know. Horrible. Humans should never do this. Mentally handicapped or not. State sanctioned murder is atrocious.
GG
“ 4. The Greens are not your friends. Do not hand out their cards to be nice!”
Does this really happen? Giving a voter a Greens HTV in the hope of getting prefs back if they refuse a Labor one? Not a bad idea I guess.
The government is like a tumour. If it is not removed finally this time, will it become too late?
Time for more people in Australia to realise that everything you can or can’t do is political. The privilege of being able to ignore politics and get away without consequence is increasingly narrowing for an increasing number of people in this society.
You have to cut the tumour out to stop it spreading before it is too late. Get rid of the parasites!
Agreed hazza @ 11.29
Upnorth
Agree. The death penalty is disgusting and the idea of spending decades on death row is as well. The uncertainty must be horrible.
Sad that Red Ted never became PM.
hazza4257 says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:29 pm
I’m surprised people come on here to argue with William when he’s the one paying god knows how much to host this site.
Not accusing any recent commenters of doing this.
=====================
I think William knows it’s all in good jest and a way to difuse the various warring “tribes”. Its true he can’t conjur up polls but William I think has a good sense of humour. After all he isn’t from Victoria.
Salvage The Future
I’d say, looking at what have been some stable democracies hitting turbulence –
“The privilege of being able to ignore politics and get away without consequence is increasingly narrowing for an increasing number of people in the world.“
Rocket Rocket says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:34 pm
Sad that Red Ted never became PM.
======================
Along with T.J. Ryan and Wayne Goss. A great loss for our nation.
Yes TJ Ryan perhaps even more so – dying suddenly aged 45. I sometimes think someone like him would likely have survived nowadays with modern treatments.
hazza,
Labor supporters are not there to provide life support to others.
The death penalty hits at a lot of people’s sensibilities in the West, but Singapore like most other East Asian societies tend to place the interests of the group above that of the individual. If Singapore as one of the world’s largest trading ports didn’t have hardline drug policies it would fast become ridden with them. A huge proportion of the caseload in Australian courts is related to drug use. There doesn’t really seem to be a way of mitigating the harms of drug use other than a choice between dissuading supply and use through draconian penalties or minimising harm through legalising and regulating them.
Rocket Rocket, yes it is happening across countries worldwide, and clearly it has happened in the past here ( obviously). I think the privilege of being apolitical in Australia over recent decades is abruptly ending across many issues and demographics. Decisions and non decisions all have consequences, as much as how we live and who has access to what lifestyle is all governed by politics.
Itza, Upnorth and Hazza re death penalty…
A week or two ago Itza (I think) and I had a respectful exchange of views re death penalty.
I hold the position that the fact no justice system is perfect rules out death penalties (executing one person wrongfully invalidates the whole thing.)
Itza wanted to raise the question of whether the ‘right to take a life’ exists.
I am unsure about that.
I do believe it doesn’t exist for justice systems, because such systems ought to be predicated on the assumption that even persons found guilty of heinous crimes might reform and contribute to society.
I also react strongly to the story about an intellectually disabled person being executed. Sounds barbaric. Haven’t they heard of ‘diminished responsibility’?
My other problem with execution is that it seems almost impossible to carry it out without being cruel. The Americans are particularly atrocious.
Upnorth at 10.58 re Rear Admiral Poop-Decker (like the hyphenation?) and his ‘stern warning’ re boat arrivals…
IF Labor wins on 21 May, he should look for a new job.
He knew the Coalition has been trying to weaponise ‘boats’ and he weighed in. He could have made his statement on 22 May or at Christmas. Doing it now is clearly political.
Torpedo the bastard!
Catmomma, don’t know what booth you captain, but it did get me digging through the numbers in Robertson these last three elections. The two booths which voted closest to the national TPP were Gosford East Public School (average 0.50% difference) and Kincumber Public School (average 0.71% difference). So if you see or hear how they’re going, let us know! Your finger will be pretty much right on the pulse for the national mood.
“Fight the Power” Public Enemy, “Know Your Enemy” Rage against The Machine, songs from two of the most popular politically rallying musical acts sum up the argument to pay attention through these song titles alone.
mj,
1. Many houses on stilts have been “built under” e.g. with a nice living area and kids bedrooms downstairs. Like the lovely people across the road from me, who are only just getting assessors in to survey the damage (and theirs was overland flow, not riverine).
2. The floods were so extreme that houses flooded even though they were on stilts. How high should they go?
Check out: https://www.google.com/maps/@-27.5123306,153.0151736,3a,56.7y,182.14h,95.29t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sBrBOdfKybv7J3fQ-fBBNQw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192
Guess which one didn’t flood earlier this year?
Snappy Tom @ #1136 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 11:57 pm
I heard that his political ambition were sunk as his arguments couldn’t hold water. He tried to refloat his career but soon run aground.
Dandy Murray
Great street view photo there! Surprised that doesn’t go against some planning laws. A question: are there (m)any double storey houses on stilts?
Tom
The erosion and politicisation of the public service is truly saddening. Many things this govt does are frustrating or infuriating, but the Libs’ opposition to the APS and their gradual destruction of it is on another level.
Dandy, “building under” doesn’t sound too wise if you live in a floodplain, but yes it’s concerning when even the truly raised houses are flooded. With warming temperatures we can only expect extreme rainfall events to increase in occurrence, it’s probably best to just re-locate people from the most flood prone areas and compensate those with property there. Unless it can be remedied through dams, or other measures?
jt1983 says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 11:18 pm
I saw Wells’ comment – it’s not great but in context (especially when you consider QLD houses) it’s not a clanger. It will be ridden by those who need to but doubt it’ll cost her the seat.
It was an important point – if householders CAN mitigate their own flood risk (reduce their insurance)- ie, rebuild in different part of the block etc – why shouldn’t they?
==========
Plus the QLD Government announced a $700+ million program to help move and retrofit those houses affected by flooding. Morrison eventually committed half after initially refusing any funds. Wells is correct in identifying this. The QLD Government will is willing to help – The Feds reluctantly.
Such an expensive task tho, to pay for people to relocate.
Is it time for us to just give up on balancing the budget and spend big? Current inflation across the world suggests we are at the limits of govt spending but it could all be due to supply chain interruptions etc – I’m sure more informed people will weigh in.
I was shocked labor’s multinational tax measures will bring in a measly 2.5 odd billion over 4 years IIRC. In other words, basically nothing. Where is the revenue going to come from to keep up with the future cost of our very important government services?
Anika Wells was misunderstood with that comments about moving up on the block. It does not mean that the block is big and some of it is higher than where the house is at present.
If a metre of water went above the floorboards, lifting floor to 2.8m high set means future flood will not make the home unlivable. Downstairs can be used for laundry, car parking etc. Any shelving etc is put above flood line. The Labor State Govt in Qld is lending homeowners $100,000 to do this when home is being repaired. Around $m780 is being used for this and property buybacks etc following recent floods. That $B5.5 sitting in Fed Govt disaster fund could be put to good use Australia wide.
Council land zonings allowing developments on unsuitable land show major incompetence at local Govt area. They should be contributing to the resulting repair bill. Keep those developers at arms length.
As someone who had more that a metre of water through home, the fact that it is a 1 in 400 event is of little comfort.
@Dandy yes I saw that house in person last week. It’s across the road from the dog park where I take my wee fella sometimes
That was an example of a house that was raised after the 2011 floods. There are quite a few of them over this side of Brisbane, down near the river. I imagine there will be more soon. If only structural steel wasn’t so expensive atm.
As for dams, Wivenhoe does the heavy lifting already. I can’t imagine what it would have been like without it this year.
Most/all other spots for dams in the Brisbane and Bremer River valleys are prime horticultural land. Perhaps riparian revegetation would help, but there is some “resistance” to even that by landholders.
Tough times, Mr Ed. Hope you can get back to normal life quickly.
Guykb, then you have seen the abomination that is the retirement complex down in, not on, the creek there. Interesting stories coming out about it’s development approval.
Multinational tax reform needs collaboration with other countries, it’s way easier said than done. Higher tax rates on excess corporate profits would help, and no further cuts in income tax for now. Not wasting money on reneged or dodgy contracts. There are other ways but they are probably vote killers. I think the realistic ways to raise money will only be triggered if we have an economic crisis of sorts, otherwise the backlash from the corporates will kill it off like they did with Rudd. With inflation high, wage growth low and people mortgaged to the hilt it’s probably going to be rough economically in the next term.
Night Bludgers. Another day closer. Keep safe and keep well.
And as always a massive thanks to William.
@hazza 4257
You raise a very good point.Labor went to the last election with a manifesto proposing some modest tax increases on higher income earners and ending some loopholes around super the electorate rejected it.
The multi national tax is just populist feel good stuff which as you say will raise peanuts.At this election Labor are not proposing any tax reform.
So as you say how will we keep current funding levels for things like medicare and the ndis ( which are going to require real increases in spending just to maintaining current levels of service other than increasing debt but you can only go so far with that before inflation raises it’s head
Ultimately something will give either these social programmes will become more restricted or tax will have to rise (or some combination of the above) and the electorate will make the ultimate choice.
To be honest I am pretty pessimistic about the direction Australia will head in the medium to long term unless federal Labor can build and maintain a big enough coalition of voters to last at least three terms .
The more affluent among that coalition will need to be willing to accept a higher tax burden and not run back to the tories at the first whiff of a tax rise or the ALP will last one or two terms and achieve little really and the poor are gonna get poorer.