The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
Arky
I mentioned last week or so our local organizer was very concerned about the interest rates.
We know what will happen if the Reserve holds off any longer & the ALP win the election.
We need more than a term to fix the joint.
GG
Thanks!
“Their extreme conservatism and complete denial of climate science is what differentiates them from the moderate Liberals turned Teals, who are far more socially progressive but still remain economically of the right.”
I don’t think I’d give the teals a ‘socially progressive’ label. They are socially progressive in the same way that Turnbull agreed with science on climate change and the Republican movement, superficially, out of self interest, would not sacrifice the good coffee blend for a less blend as a personal sacrifice to achieve.
Even marriage equality wasn’t socially progressive by the time we got there, it was only socially progressive from a 1950s mindset and from the institutional cowardice of Labor.
P1,
You reap what you have earned, champ.
You’re the one that is going to come up empty handed after this Election.
WeWantPaul
“we are better characterised by hate, racism and a love of authority than intelligence.”
You’d be surprised how many intelligent racist bootlickers there are out there, a lot of them ended up that way by being too smart for their own good. The most extreme movements draw just as many disillusioned educated middle class as they do lumpenproles, if not more. The latter are substantially more sympathetic characters than the former, obviously.
Lars I grew up in what is now Fowler. In-laws lived there all their lives. Despite what you’d like to think, you do not have the inside track on what’s going on
Just thought I’d check in on the French Presidential election aftermath, to find this crock of shit…
https://www.9news.com.au/national/french-elections-2022-presidential-candidate–marine-le-pen-loss-to-emmanuel-macron-is-still-a-victory-for-the-farright/89909ec9-1241-442d-a8d3-abfd697b1cc1
Don’t know who wrote it, but they’re clueless about French history. This is the country that produced Petain’s Vichy govt, after all.
The above article needs to be set against this one…
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/forget-le-pen-2027
…which, despite the provocative headline, is as much about the challenges ahead for Macron (a centrist) in dealing with a parliament that may see a leftist coalition in the majority. It may well be the Left’s new found capacity for unity that sees off Le Pen in 2027 – if she runs. She’s had three tries for three losses, none of them close.
Note: Macron can’t run in 2027 due to term limits.
God I hope we get rid of Morrison this time. I couldn’t take another 2019. I want to believe the polls but something just doesn’t feel right and Labor have been such a letdown this campaign.
Lars @5.30,
If Labor loses Fowler they ain’t winning government.
JenAuthor says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 6:47 pm
Lars I grew up in what is now Fowler. In-laws lived there all their lives. Despite what you’d like to think, you do not have the inside track on what’s going on
____________________________
Pray tell
A great moment during Riley’s election segment on Ch 7 news. Showed SfM this morning displaying one of his bar charts claiming inflation in Australia is way below other countries. Then ABS struck with 5.1%, allowing Jason Clare to display his own bar chart while Frydenberg was left to deliver the bad news.
So, in keeping with the kindergarten we have for a government, they are taking their bat and ball and going home
To me the adult response would be to continue dialogue and continue to offer support – and alongside the supports provided by the Chinese government
Not throw a tantrum
Given inflation at above 5%, it will be interesting to ask if this kindergarten government will be making any submissions to the next FWA wages hearing
“I don’t think I’d give the teals a ‘socially progressive’ label. They are socially progressive in the same way that Turnbull agreed with science on climate change and the Republican movement, superficially, out of self interest, would not sacrifice the good coffee blend for a less blend as a personal sacrifice to achieve. ”
***
I was talking relative to the extreme conservative wing of the Coalition. Compared to a party of progressives like the Greens, you’re right, they aren’t that progressive.
Lars, you might think it is fun to try and make people question their own common-sense. Afraid i am not so gullible.
Firefox,
I doubt the Teal Independents give a flying fig what your brainwashed self righteous stupidity produces and then blurts out.
Upnorth:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 5:40 pm
[‘As a kid I was called “string bean” tall and skinny.’]
I saw a woman today at CWH Nerang who must’ve been around
6’8″. She was head & shoulders above me; I’m 5’10”. I can only imagine what a hard time she’s had – eg, what’s the weather like up there?
I read a post today in Fairfax, with someone having a go at Sharma’s proboscis; short of rhinoplasty, he’s stuck with it.
My point is that save for obesity, criticism based on physical features is almost the equivalent of invoking Godwin.
I do hope you’re well-adjusted to your “string bean” tag. Kids can be so cruel.
____________________________________
Vale Bill Ludwig.
A war over preferences between the Liberals and One Nation in Tasmania will see Pauline Hanson’s party preference Labor ahead of Liberals in key marginal seats across the country.
One Nation was confident its candidate Steve Mav would win Tasmanian’s sixth Senate seat, and had offered to preference the Liberals in key marginals Bass and Braddon in return for Senate preferencing.
However, sources said the Liberals had decided to preference the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the JLN’s Tammy Tyrrell ahead of Mr Mav for the Senate in Tasmania.
It is understood One Nation will now preference Labor ahead of the Liberals in selected seats, with a focus on defeating Liberal “moderates” while still preferencing Liberal conservatives.
Thanks for your usual polite and enlightened contribution, GG.
Nathan, at some point post 2022 Labor will elect a charismatic, confident, articulate leader and the LNP will be toast.
I tells ya.
Before going back to the ABC Hamish MacDonald used to be pretty balanced. After going back to 10 he is now acts like a gushing fanboi of Morrison. What happened to him?
The piece he just did starting The Project tonight will go straight to the Liberal FB page.
Before going back to the ABC Hamish MacDonald used to be pretty balanced. After going back to 10 he is now acts like a gushing fanboi of Morrison. What happened to him?
The piece he just did starting The Project tonight will go straight to the Liberal FB page.
Snappy Tom @ #638 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 5:20 pm
As someone who actually lived in South Brisbane, I want to say that the Greens didn’t run that hard on Trad, specifically. You’re thinking of the Liberals – the Liberals were the ones that ran an anti-Trad campaign.
The biggest uproar about Greens in connection with Trad was when the South Brisbane branch secretary posted to twitter, in connection with a story on the issue, “This party is the nastiest skank bitch I’ve ever met. DO NOT TRUST THEM. they are a fugly slut!!!!!” – and Trad failed to recognise the Mean Girls reference (or what it was actually supposed to be saying). Anyone who knows Mean Girls knows that it’s not meant to be saying anything about Trad.
The only thing the Greens did, really, is campaign to win the seat. The problem is, the anti-Green Labor people on here consider “Greens campaigning against Labor” to be tantamount to treason, even though the Greens are not part of Labor.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:05 pm
A war over preferences between the Liberals and One Nation in Tasmania will see Pauline Hanson’s party preference Labor ahead of Liberals in key marginal seats across the country.
One Nation was confident its candidate Steve Mav would win Tasmanian’s sixth Senate seat, and had offered to preference the Liberals in key marginals Bass and Braddon in return for Senate preferencing.
However, sources said the Liberals had decided to preference the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the JLN’s Tammy Tyrrell ahead of Mr Mav for the Senate in Tasmania.
It is understood One Nation will now preference Labor ahead of the Liberals in selected seats, with a focus on defeating Liberal “moderates” while still preferencing Liberal conservatives.
The various reactionary asteroids colliding with each other. What an absolute shambles they are.
In breaking news:
Liberal candidate Katherine Deves appears to have compared Defence Minister Peter Dutton with Lord Voldemort in a reference to a cruel internet meme.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/election-2022-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese-live-updates/live-coverage/c869b3500e39f5158dee51b05653b379
“You’d be surprised how many intelligent racist bootlickers there are out there, a lot of them ended up that way by being too smart for their own good. The most extreme movements draw just as many disillusioned educated middle class as they do lumpenproles, if not more. The latter are substantially more sympathetic characters than the former, obviously.”
Good point. Many roads lead to hell and the path good intentions etc etc.
“I was talking relative to the extreme conservative wing of the Coalition. Compared to a party of progressives like the Greens, you’re right, they aren’t that progressive.”
The extreme right wing of the LNP doesn’t even compare well to Saudi Arabia on a bad day.
So the fact they sought the Court to protect communications means those communications exist and that they are damaging
Why contest otherwise?
Firefox,
Thanks for the compliment.
That’s just how I roll!
Come back later and I’ll do it all again.
Cheerio!
Clare is future PM material but he has a very young family and despite his acknowledged talent, he won’t be stepping forward for a while.
I always thought Albo was more a ‘2IC’ than ‘Leader’ but I’ve been, on the whole, pleasantly surprised. I think if ALP does gain power, he’ll make a striong fist of it because he has a very good team around him.
The PMO going to the Courts to protect from disclosure means the communications exist and they are damaging
Otherwise why conceal?
And former most senior military people I know who has dealings with Albanese during the last ALP government speak most highly of him
Continuing to impose my Leo Wanker addiction on you.
In this episode, Leo has to get a distressed woman’s cat down from a tree. Special feature: Leo DOESN’T need the fire extinguisher treatment at the end of this adventure…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FZSfJUZ7CM
The ……problem is, the anti-Green Labor people on here consider “Greens campaigning against Labor” to be tantamount to treason, even though the Greens are not part of Labor.
This is not the problem. The problem is that by campaigning 24/7 against Labor, in all theatres and on every issue, the Greens have helped keep the Lying Reactionaries in power. This suits the Greens. They gain more from the defeat of Labor – even if this means the Reactionaries win – than they do from Labor’s success. There are existential reasons for this. The institutional split on the centre left has strengthened the Lying Reactionaries. True story.
The Greens like to pretend that butter would not melt in their mouths, so cool are they. The facts are quite different. They use Q-like tactics to defame Labor, who remain the only Party capable of winning elections and advancing the interests of everyday Australians. The Greens would like to see the Morrison Government returned unless by some fluke they might be able to blackmail a minority Labor college. This is their main political and electoral objective. They strive to achieve it. Were they to succeed they would procure Labor’s electoral self-obliteration.
You truly are a miserable bore sometimes @mundo.
@Nathan – feel what you feel and be plesantly surprised should it come to pass. I have a much much better feeling now than I did this time in 2019 – too many people were broken by that election and also too tied to the idea of there is a formula by which Labor wins… there isn’t. Correlation does not equal causation.
TBH – I think if Labor does win, doing so without having an intense cult of personality doesn’t risk the collapses we’ve seen from Labor in the past.
Do I think people are baseball bat angry? Probably not. But are they tired, frustrated and worried? Yes.
What was one of the worst things to hear from a parent? “I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed”.
Whoever is writing Jason Clare’s terrific one-liners need to be co-opted by Albanese’s team, though arguably he doesn’t have quite the comic timing to deliver them.
Firefox:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:07 pm
[‘Thanks for your usual polite and enlightened contribution, GG.’]
Surely by now, you know that’s the Growler’s default position?
SA Legislative Council (Upper House) results were declared today. Of the 11 seats up for election, the party totals are: 5 ALP, 4 Liberal, 1 Green and 1 PHON.
Therefore the total composition of the 22 seat chamber for the 2022-26 period shall be 9 ALP, 8 Liberal, 2 Greens, 2 SA Best and 1 PHON.
Lest anybody hit the alarm and suggest Hanson is rising in popularity and SA is ready to elect a PHON Senator or anything like that, please note the PHON Legislative Council primary vote was 4.2% which is nowhere near enough to have a realistic chance at election to the Senate in a half-Senate race (Double Dissolution is a different story.)
It’s unfortunate that they’ve gotten a seat at all but realistically, that spot would have probably just gone to Family First instead, had PHON not been in the race and they’re not really going to be a key vote for divided legislation.
Ch9 hit job on Liberal Scullin candidate
https://twitter.com/awelder/status/1519244803539570688?s=21&t=ibFuZ-BMbYXAxouhwtbMoQ
JenAuthor says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:02 pm
Lars, you might think it is fun to try and make people question their own common-sense. Afraid i am not so gullible.
___________
You obviously have a viewpoint, don’t play coy – why don’t you just say it? Let me guess the workers and peasants of Fowler welcome the arrival of KK ?
alias says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:21 pm
Whoever is writing Jason Clare’s terrific one-liners need to be co-opted by Albanese’s team, though arguably he doesn’t have quite the comic timing to deliver them.
____________________________________
You mean like the Bill Shorten zingers? They were amazeballs too – until they werent?
Re Wat @7:24.
That looks like Good Guys 11, Bad Guys 9, with SA Best (which I understand is Centrist) having the balance of power.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:27 pm
You obviously have a viewpoint, don’t play coy – why don’t you just say it? Let me guess the workers and peasants of Fowler welcome the arrival of KK ?
___________
I thought KK was great on SKY with PVO. It was very entertaining. She didn’t strike me as a Labor person tbh. I thought she was taking the piss out of them along with PVO half the time.
Jen,
Lars thinks it should have been him.
Unfortunately for him, trolling and disloyalty did his chances in.
So sad for him.
Has anyone else noticed that Lib von TrollHard finishes every post with a ? mark.
Designed to elicit engagement from the target
Steve777 it’s a good result and shouldn’t be much of a hindrance to good legislation. Despite the presence of PHON, I am not complaining.
I am more concerned about what will happen to those two SA Best seats at the next election but that’s four years away. A lot can happen in that time.
nath says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:30 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:27 pm
You obviously have a viewpoint, don’t play coy – why don’t you just say it? Let me guess the workers and peasants of Fowler welcome the arrival of KK ?
___________
I thought KK was great on SKY with PVO. It was very entertaining. She didn’t strike me as a Labor person tbh. I thought she was taking the piss out of them along with PVO half the time.
_________________
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kristina-keneally-was-headed-to-washington-under-secret-plan-with-bill-shorten-20191203-p53giz.html
Lars Von Trier:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:29 pm
I’m not sure you can compare Shorten with Clare.
Well we do need to win in Northern Tasmania to win the election so thank you Pauline
@sprocket_ – the mark of the wannabe Agent Provocateur.
Lars Von Trier says:
________________
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kristina-keneally-was-headed-to-washington-under-secret-plan-with-bill-shorten-20191203-p53giz.html
_______________
What a gig that would have been.
I could imagine the ballot paper for the safe seat of Fowler
1 – no hope independent
2 – Clive Palmer surrogate
3- Liberal Party Young Lib uni student
4 – token ethnic candidate
5 – ALP – Lars von Trier aka Edwina aka Edward St John
And the winner is – Lars by a 20 points
A career on the Green Leather awaits the youthful charismatic MHR
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:38 pm
___________________________
My mail is you were overlooked for Barton – twice? Not good on the hustings apparently?
Barton was the seat held by Lemonade Ley. I believe the only known serial killer ever to have sat in Federal Parliament.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Ley