Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns

The weekly Roy Morgan poll continues its slow narrowing, while Ipsos breakdowns point to significant Labor swings in the three largest states.

The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.

As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).

Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

954 comments on “Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

Comments Page 14 of 20
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  1. @ Bluey

    In yet another in the ever-lengthening conga line of Coalition bizarre candidates, Liberal National Party candidate Nicole Tobin has managed to combine racism, fattism and even ‘kindermusik” as a cure for the world’s ills. Just for good measure, she reckons her daughter is blessed by great genes and is therefore skinny.
    ===========
    As a kid I was called “string bean” tall and skinny.

    After I gave up football and cricket I have been as my old man would say “eating at the top paddock”.

    Discrimination against we who carry a few extra pounds is abhorrent and should be stopped.

  3. R u from NSW Jenauthor? There’s an extremely strong local campaign against KK – basically the Liberals & Labor on the Local Council are all campaigning against KK. There is of course the residual fall-out from the favoured local ALP member Tu Le being done over for KK.

    Also all of the other candidates (other than the Green) are preferencing Dai Le (the independent) against KK.

    I don’t give it more than a 1 in 4 chance but Fowler could be a boil-over.

  4. Discrimination against we who carry a few extra pounds is abhorrent and should be stopped.

    Hear! Hear! (not that that’s an admission)

  5. Tom says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 5:45 pm
    JenAuthor @ #649 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    Tom, I’ve seen her contradict her own stance in a single statement, she is so confused.
    I’ve heard her shadow has trouble following her…
    ============
    More positions than a Carpet Snake that just swallowed a Water Rat.

  6. not shore how deaves was suposed to help the liberalsmorrison and hawkes first 2 choices for waringa were baird and gladis so he did not realy want her to run in first place if khalill is in trouble not a good sign for vick labor pmthe campaign legind has failed to campaign much this time

  7. I’ve watched quite a bit of Jason Clare’s media performances over the last couple of weeks. I can’t tell you just how impressed I am with him. Calm, confident, measured, and with killer lines like “climate change for the Liberals means a holiday in Hawaii”. And he has impeccable working-class roots in western Sydney, and not a trace of scandal on his CV.

    Clearly the election is Labor’s to lose from here. And Albo has done very well to be competitive versus the slick media performer which is Scomo, he’s done much better than I thought he could. But I still fear that Albo is the weakest link in Labor’s pitch to voters. I hear a lot of negativity about Scomo, but no positivity at all about Albo.

    If Labor does lose, God forbid, Albo would stand down, you’d think. Would Jason Clare have the numbers to then take the leadership? Or displace Marles as deputy in an Albanese government-I guess state and factional balance might be a problem with that. Is he ready-does he have all the other competencies necessary for the job? Being great in front of a camera doesn’t mean he’s also great at managing people or projects or developing policies. But the thing Labor has lacked through this near decade of conservative rule is a charismatic leader. Maybe his time has not yet come, but Jason Clare looks to me like a party leader-or Prime Minister-in waiting.

  10. “Or, you could say that the Greens attract about 20% of their votes from Liberals, who are happy to vote Green but not Labor.

    Labor might usefully ask themselves why this should be.”

    Player One has just discovered the Teal vote and thinks he or she has made a brilliant discovery.

    Dude or dudette, it is not actually a shock that there are people who are socially and/or environmentally “left” but economically “right”. It really isn’t. For many voting 1 Green 2 Liberal is a form of conscience salving protest vote.

    The whole concept behind the Teal independents is basically to offer these voters everything they want and hope when push comes to shove there’s enough of them (when added to preferences from proper Labor and Greens voters) to get over 50%.

  12. Parramatta Moderate: Jason Clare has star quality. If he was leader now, Labor would be approaching the 90 seat mark.
    I am like you, Albanese worries me as a Labor supporter, but I hope the desire to turf out Morrison and his rabble is big enough this time to ensure a change of govt.

  13. Sally Sitou, my local prospective member for Reid, in that presser with Jason Clare.
    She hasn’t learnt that poker face, back of the head blank stare look, which is delightful.

  17. I’m quite confident Albo has it in him, with plenty to spare. He’s just been spooked a little, that’s all. Once he gets over the Covid, I predict he’ll hit the ground bolting.

    The real Albo is “Sit down, boofhead!”. Be prepared for a big win.

  21. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 6:00 pm
    The move to manage Albanese out is on already from the NSW right….
    •===========€€========
    You could be right there Rexy boy. I reckon after about three terms Albo will wanna sit back after a life of service to the Australian Labor Party and the people of Australia.

    Then the NSW right and other factions will sort out a good replacement. Labors’ factions know how to work together unlike the Nats, Libs and Greens.

  22. The Reserve Bank on these figures would look incredibly political to not raise rates. Frankly given the predicted rate rises they look bad for having delayed starting this long.

    It will hurt Albo to not be personally out there on this soon though. Need to convince waverers not only that Morrison is shit but that Albo will improve things. Hopefully he’s fully well soon.

  23. 1934pc says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:09 pm

    I blame Nath for the loss last time!.
    ______________
    It had to be done. Shorten had to be defeated. Even C@t agrees with me now.

  26. Assuming all’s well, I think Albo should be out of iso and back on the road this Friday. I don’t really think it’s had too much impact either way.

  28. Evan Parsonssays:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 5:10 pm
    One for CatsM@mma:
    Andrew Clennell on Sky News said that the Coalition are increasingly concerned about retaining Robertson.
    _____________________
    Keep up the good work C@t.

  30. In the end, some didn’t think Mark McGowan was the goods and wanted to replace him with Stephen Smith. Albo’s capacity will be determined once elected.

  31. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 5:33 pm

    Non-stop bad-mouthing of Labor….we know you are Labor-phobic/Reactionary-sweet. Hopefully Labor win very well. This is the worst nightmare for the Greens, for whom Labor success is a bitter pill.

  33. P1 now pretends she’s got any interests beyond Climate Change.

    The Teal Independents have a wider more whole of Government approach.

    P1 is an obsessive, tambourine banger from way back.

  34. Everyone wants a charismatic leader but in the end, the best ever leader of the UK Labour Party was Clement Attlee. A man with almost no charisma but who built then NHS and the welfare state.

  37. FF at 6.05pm

    Goodness! I half agree with you!

    The Coalition do have a lot of extremists – not just among their new nominees (Canavan etc).

    Them being considered ‘conservative’ is where I don’t agree. They’re Right wingers, pure and simple.

    Actually, the term ‘conservative’ is a con perpetrated by the Right. There was nothing ‘conservative’ about 1975: Fraser and his cur, Kerr, trashed the Westminster system. Various Right wing Premiers had made the trashing possible in the lead-up by ignoring convention (a pillar of conservatism) in some key Senate vacancy replacements.

    Howard excluded Christmas Is. from the migration zone: it both is and isn’t Australia? The same Howard deployed ‘you can’t have two laws’ against steps towards real reconciliation, while happily not-applying migration law to boat people. Then he swooped on First Peoples’ rights with the Intervention, disguised as giving a shit about kids but really about mining rights etc for mates.

    What did the people do? Re-elected ‘Caretaker’ PM Fraser in a landslide and re-elected Howard repeatedly.

    These people who populate the Coalition are corrupt, power hungry, mate-servers who don’t give a flying fig about parliamentary institutions. The only difference between them and Trump is Trump’s more honest about it.

  39. Bushfire Bill @ #526 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 6:03 pm

    I’m quite confident Albo has it in him, with plenty to spare. He’s just been spooked a little, that’s all. Once he gets over the Covid, I predict he’ll hit the ground bolting.

    The real Albo is “Sit down, boofhead!”. Be prepared for a big win.

    I think we will get some ‘love letters’ from ScoMo’s admirers in the NSW libs with about a week to go followed up by some more helpful posts from Grace Tame and Brittany Higgins. Should set the cat amongst the pigeons for him. ScoMo has pissed a lot of people off and payback is gonna be a real bitch.

  42. FWIIW, Albo got the opposition to where it is, essentially out of the public glare of a campaign. That’s where his skill set is most productive. If he doesn’t conform to the required standards in a campaign, so be it…it’s obvious he is letting the troops do their best thing, none of them are in witness protection like the LNP lot.

    BTW, Prissy Pyne on The Project at the moment…for the deeply committed.

  43. “Everyone wants a charismatic leader but in the end, the best ever leader of the UK Labour Party was Clement Attlee. A man with almost no charisma but who built then NHS and the welfare state.”

    The greatest democratic socialist ever!

  45. Shorten would have made a fine PM, much better than the one we’ve had. Anyone aware of how bad Morrison is should have no doubt a less gullible, more intelligent electorate would have elected him.

    That is the electorate or country we live in, we are better characterised by hate, racism and a love of authority than intelligence. In fact all the things we are well characterised by are inconsistent with intelligence and strength, it is stupidity and fear that dominates the national political debate and character.

  46. “Them being considered ‘conservative’ is where I don’t agree. They’re Right wingers, pure and simple.”

    ***

    They are very socially conservative, while also being economically right wing.

    Their extreme conservatism and complete denial of climate science is what differentiates them from the moderate Liberals turned Teals, who are far more socially progressive but still remain economically of the right.

  47. Upnorth: “More positions than a Carpet Snake that just swallowed a Water Rat.”

    I’m generally fairly well-versed, but I can’t remember ever seeing that idiom. It’s a cracker.

  49. I now understand Upnorths Joh avatar which I had found unnerving. He has some really beaut Joh style turns of phrase (look them up as he had some pearlers). Upnorth on the other hand is a good vibe merchant par excellence ( unlike Joh). Keep it up cobber, I reckon from a down south Queenslander we are about to see to the ALP in for quite some time just like ALP up here in Qld !!!! Could be in for some very positive changes.

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