Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns

The weekly Roy Morgan poll continues its slow narrowing, while Ipsos breakdowns point to significant Labor swings in the three largest states.

The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.

As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).

Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

954 comments on “Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

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  1. 53-47 seems to be the settled result thus far. If it stays that way until after the election I’ll be happy.

    I wouldn’t call it herding because the numbers are still jumping around and mainly higher for Labor. Just don’t go lower please! 😀

  2. Header says big swings in big three states, but both polls showing previous Labor swings in Qld disappearing. Am I reading that wrong?

  3. Another stunt backfiring for Morrison. And I love the headline ‘While Morrison played with macarons, Labor walked straight into the Coalition’s favourite territory’.

    “They are very delicate aren’t they?” Prime Minister Scott Morrison asked as he crushed down a lid on a pink macaron while campaigning in Townsville.

    “Be careful as you put it down,” a chef offered as Morrison attempted take two.

    We can only assume he was talking about the macaron and not the French President.

    How it was that Morrison had found himself in a French bakery and playing with macarons so soon after his stoush with Emmanuel Macron beggars belief.

    You could imagine that will be coming up in his advancer’s performance appraisal.

    Though he might have been there to talk about jobs and an economy bouncing back from its first recession in three decades, it undoubtedly reminds people of the French President’s character assassination of Morrison — that he’s a liar who misled a key Australian ally.

  4. James Massola must be a conduit for those in Labor who are still trying to derail the campaign of Anthony Albanese. *cough* Bill Shorten:

    Labor’s tight control on media appearances and daily messaging has left prominent frontbenchers including Tanya Plibersek and Bill Shorten effectively frozen out, creating growing frustration inside the party about restrictions on who is featured during the six-week election campaign.

    A leaked internal memo sent by Labor’s campaign headquarters on the eve of the election revealed the party would only be releasing transcripts of media appearances for Labor leader Anthony Albanese and a select few shadow ministers.

    All interviews, including regular appearances across TV and radio, also had to be approved by campaign headquarters (CHQ).

    Two and a half weeks into the campaign, an analysis of the transcripts and media alerts sent out by Labor’s CHQ reveals shadow ministers who are part of Albanese’s inner circle and leadership group are being heavily promoted and relied upon to deliver the campaign’s daily message.

    Experienced frontbenchers including Plibersek, Shorten, Ed Husic, Clare O’Neil and even Brendan O’Connor have, in comparison, been largely side-lined.

    I can see a point to it. After 2019 no one in Labor wants to highlight Bill Shorten to the electorate again and cause a negative backlash. Not to mention the role he played recently in attempting to derail the Labor campaign just prior to the election after the death of Kimberley Kitching. I wouldn’t want him around either. He should think himself lucky to possibly be given a Ministry if Labor wins.

    As for the others, well Education, Tanya Plibersek’s role, isn’t being given prominence in the campaign, but, she is doing a lot of work on the ground. A good use of her time I would have thought.

    I imagine Ed Husic is spending his time on the ground making sure Labor’s ‘Red Wall’ in Western Sydney doesn’t fall, as the Coalition is trying to make it do. Again a good use of his time, he’s very popular there.

    I don’t know, I think this article isn’t seeing the big strategic picture and it seems to me like a sophisticated use of the MPs, if anything.

  5. Morrison came across as very angry on ABC news last night. The smirk has gone. It was a long grab, bullshit from one end to the other.

  6. I heard shorten on radio about a week ago. It reminded me how useless he is off the cuff. Ummmed and ahhhhed his way through important answers. Clear, concise and charismatic he was most certainly not.

  7. I’m not unhappy with Labor’s choices of spokespeople, with the exception of Marles who is a dreadful communicator. But as the deputy leader he can’t exactly be shoved into a closet like the Nationals do with their leadership.

  8. Well, I’m off to interact with the marauding masses at a street stall at the local shops this morning. I’ll probably have a better idea of which way the wind’s blowing after that. First day back at school for NSW.

  9. C@t,

    I see Shorten operative Peter Khalil has taken over Kitching’s spot on IPAC.

    London: Labor backbencher Peter Khalil is replacing the late Kimberley Kitching as the Australian co-chair of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China.

    The organisation was founded in the aftermath of China’s economic coercion against Australia in the wake of the pandemic and comprises parliamentarians from 20 legislatures, belonging to a range of political parties around the world.

    IPAC members encourage their democratic governments to strike a coordinated and tougher approach to Beijing’s aggression.

  10. bakunin,
    Peter Khalil is an outstanding contributor to Labor’s foreign policy brains trust with extensive real world experience. A good choice by Labor, imho.

  11. Jennifer Hewett speaks plainly about the Coalition’s difficulties behind the AFR paywall:

    “ But Morrison has a particular problem with women voters as well as with traditional moderate Liberal voters in inner suburban seats. He is also a major reason behind the Climate 200 campaign of female “teal” independents getting so much traction campaigning on climate change and integrity in government in supposedly safe Liberal seats.

    So it’s not surprising Morrison is travelling anywhere but these same electorates, just as his image is nowhere to be seen on all the Liberal corflutes and posters trying to compete with the avalanche of signs for the independents. The prime minister is too much of a drag on the Liberal vote in what has become a desperate fight for survival by individual MPs suddenly keen to stress their own independence from Morrison.”

  12. Yes. 2019PTSD.

    However Newspoll is proving to be reliable with perhaps a slight underestimate of alp 2pp (iirc) and that ispos is a big poll, importantly a good sample in QLD. The concern is the late dump of anti ALP Palmer millions and some desperation from Morrison and Murdoch.

    using preference flows from that PTSD 2019 election should buffer somewhat from polling day shocks.

  13. The lib/nats and their corrupt propaganda media units are stuck in 2010-2013 era

    Australians do not need another repeat of lib/nats Abbott,Turnbull.Morrison incompetences

  14. The lnp primary is down 4% from the same period on 2019.

    Coalition are out to 2.25-2.40 and the lnp are infighting.

    63.5% chance of a labor majority and they should win between 78 and 90 seats.

  15. I am mostly following this campaign vicariously through the posts on this site.In the past I would have watched ABCs coverage but makes me too angry now. Thanks to ( nearly) all on here and BK for his daily wraps. I do try and avoid reading the immature and pointless provocations of Freya though, if we all do that he/ she might go back to the IPA echo chamber.

  16. I should add to my concern list the return of a recovering Albanese to the hustings with some uncertainty around his performance level and that there is still a depressingly long way to go.

  17. I am mostly following this campaign vicariously through the posts on this site.In the past I would have watched ABCs coverage but makes me too angry now.

    Same except for the anger. I’m mostly just bored with the election campaign coverage. If ever the horse race analogy applied to an election, in my view it’s to this one.

  18. Chris Uhlmann pushing the ‘must be a hung Parliament’ barrow, and some unnamed ‘Labor strategist’ is pulling his chain…

    But here is the risk. If the moderate Liberals hold on, outside the inner-city bubble the media campaign against Deves is being received very badly. In the suburbs and the regions, the vast majority are in her camp. As one Labor strategist said, “this is not a 60/40 split, it’s 90/10 in Deves’ favour”. That could push more preferences from One Nation and United Australia back into the Coalition’s column.

    Imagine that. If the moral outrage of the constantly offended elite unwittingly delivered Scott Morrison victory. Be careful what you wish for.

  19. Thanks C@t. Yes. Yesterday things improved. 2 rough days and nights but unlike a flu I don’t feel as wrecked coming out of it. Still some night sweats and persistent headaches.

    I hope I don’t get the lingering effects GG is suffering as I have some physical regional work coming up in the weeks to come.

  20. In the SmearStralian…

    Seven firms as debate favourite for next leaders debate
    The Seven Network appears all but certain to stage the second campaign debate between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, moderated by Mark Riley next week in Sydney.

  21. the media campaign against Deves

    What media campaign against Deves? The ‘campaign’ against her is coming from the Liberal party!

  22. C@t, balkunin
    Thanks for the news of Peter Khalil’s appointment – his Wiki entry gives much hope for a rational and nuanced foreign policy post-election.
    Seconding Prince Planet – I have not put on the TV yet during this campaign – particularly the ABC raises my blood pressure dangerously. BBC World Service and ABC News radio provide a nearer impartial world view.

  23. D says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:20 am
    We have started receiving emails from LNP guy claiming the ALP are lying about the Indue card.
    Anyone else?


    if Labor were lying , Why haven’t the Lib/nats got rid of the indue card

  24. Sorry, but Chris Uhlmann is so full of shit, my own bowel movements have greater insight.

    How on earth would he be able to back up the “this is not a 60/40 split, it’s 90/10 in Deves’ favour” statement? He can’t, and won’t. An unnamed Labor stategist? Sure. More than likely his own imagination.

  25. Those historically inconsistent swings still give ALP 87 seats. (only 1 QLD, 0 WA gains)

    On those state swings Labor needs 51.5% to get to 76 seats, compared with 51% from IPSOS breakdowns.

    They are very different state swings, so unless national vote gets below 51.5% it should be a Labor majority somehow, the votes have to go somewhere.

    Its getting to the stage where we need seat-by-seat lists of probables and possibles to narrow it down further.

  26. In the event of a minority Govt, I wonder if it would be better (from a progressive viewpoint) for the coalition to form a Government with the Teals. It would be chaotic as the conservatives fight against climate change and an ICAC. Also, they’d have to deal with the fiscal landmines they’ve laid over the past 20 years.

    If the ALP ends up in a minority govt the conservatives may not see the need to reflect and reform but see an easy chance to disrupt and slide back into power at the next election with the promise to fix Labor’s mess.

  27. Good morning all. Grey day with some light rain pending. GG, best wishes for your full recovery.
    Polling pretty much expected with most of the shifts down to the MOE. If an election were held today…
    Possibly some significant movements at state level that might be significant.

  28. Uhlmann, via sprocket:

    “… outside the inner-city bubble the media campaign against Deves is being received very badly. In the suburbs and the regions, the vast majority are in her camp …”

    The ‘vast majority’? Evidence?

    Oh, an unnamed’Labor insider’.

    I call bullshit on that.

  29. ‘Work To Rule says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 7:30 am

    In the event of a minority Govt, I wonder if it would be better (from a progressive viewpoint) for the coalition to form a Government with the Teals….’
    LOLZ. The point for the progressives is this: gain power and make a difference. If we get the chance, just do it!

  30. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    James Roberston writes that the Coalition has made marginal inroads into Labor’s lead, but only independent candidates have emerged as winners from a tight week of campaigning, a new Roy Morgan Poll has found. Labor maintains an election-winning lead on a two-party preferred basis, 54.5 to 45.5 – a gain of half a point to the government, its second consecutive rise, according to the poll taken from April 18 to April 24.
    Peter Martin explains the four economic wildcards waiting for us between now and the federal election.
    Shane Wright says there will be no hiding from inflation pressures for either side.
    It’s time. Time to consider the unthinkable – another term in opposition for Labor. What would it look like? Mark Sawyer looks at a post-Albanese era as if one were fated to begin on May 22.
    The key purpose of a government’s budget is to propose the spending on essential government services and how that spending will be financed. Judged by this standard, the latest Budget is completely inadequate and belies the claims of the Morrison Government to be competent economic managers, argues Michael Keating.
    Mike Foley and Nick Toscano say that Scott Morrison’s hard-won climate change peace within the Coalition has fractured during the election campaign as prominent Nationals insist the 2050 net zero emissions target is dead and criticise the government’s billion-dollar push into hydrogen infrastructure.
    Chris Uhlmann reckons we are heading for a hung parliament, saying all the public polls show neither major party has electoral support to hit the magic 76 members.
    Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have ruled out deals with the independents and minor parties to form government in the event of a hung parliament, but George Williams says the promises lack credibility.
    John Lord wonders who can scare us most.
    The heads of Treasury and the Finance Department have just issued the most pessimistic Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook report since PEFOs have been a thing, as Alan Austin reports.,16294
    Paul Sakkal writes that the Liberal Party’s candidate for the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, Colleen Harkin, has said that describing global warming as a climate emergency is almost child abuse, and defended the views on trans women of controversial Warringah candidate Katherine Deves. Some of these Liberal women are crackers!
    The Liberals’ campaign is divided between those inner suburban seats under pressure from independents and Morrison’s preferred territory in outer suburban and regional seats. But without coming together, it’s going to be hard for the Coalition to win enough seats, opines Jennifer Hewett.
    “Well-intentioned billionaires have taken it upon themselves to turbocharge the clean energy transition – but are they really doing more harm than good?”, asks Charlotte Grieve.
    Labor has been accused of planning a carbon tax by stealth with its policy to cut emissions from major industrial polluters as the climate wars ignited new political brawls despite a bipartisan commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, says The Australian’s Greg Brown.
    Katherine Murphy declares that Scott Morrison is setting up another fake fight on a carbon ‘tax’.
    Morrison and Dutton have gone hard on national security – but will it have any effect on the election, wonders Tony Walker.
    From legal challenges to political subterfuge, welcome to the dramatic world surrounding election campaign signage as explained by former Member for Wentworth Professor Kerryn Phelps.,16295
    Despite heroic pre-election promises in 2019 around “putting customers first” following the Hayne royal commission into the banking sector, the re-elected Morrison government soon lost its zeal for implementing key reforms, laments Ross Gittins who tells us how the Morrison government lost interest in banking reform.
    In the past week of the election campaign, there has been much debate about the role of Temporary Protection Visas, offshore processing and boat turn-backs in limiting irregular boat arrivals. Most of the debate on the effectiveness of TPVs has been devoid of any reference to actual evidence, says Abul Rizvi who looks at the evidence.,16296
    Gregory Andrews says that the election is an opportunity to move from boofhead to smart diplomacy.
    The head of Guide Dogs Victoria has been temporarily stood down after she appeared in Liberal Party campaign material endorsing Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Rachel Dexter tells us that the chief executive of Breast Cancer Network Australia, Kirsten Pilatti, and Inclusion Foundation founder Cate Sayers have also endorsed Frydenberg in the seat, but neither charity has announced similar investigations.
    Labor’s tight control on media appearances and daily messaging has left prominent frontbenchers including Tanya Plibersek and Bill Shorten effectively frozen out, creating growing frustration inside the party about restrictions on who is featured during the six-week election campaign, writes James Massola.
    Jacob Greber reports that Barnaby Joyce has rejected Nationals senator Matt Canavan’s suggestion that hydrogen hubs are a waste of time, and that the government should hit pause on its net zero strategy, saying it is essential to develop alternatives to coal jobs.
    At the first day of a Fair Work Commission hearing into a union application for a 25 per cent pay rise for age care workers, federal Labor MP Dr Mike Freelander says more men need to be enticed to work in aged care as employers warn against a high-profile wage case being turned into an argument about equal pay in the overwhelmingly female workforce.
    The workplace tribunal has said it won’t be swayed by government funding constraints in deciding how much to lift wages for aged-care sector workers, leaving the unbudgeted cost to whoever wins the next election.
    More than 120 legal, health and social services organisations have appealed to the federal government to provide urgent assistance to Aboriginal families left with no way to pay for their funerals, after their “predatory” insurer went into liquidation.
    Soaring rents have dramatically outstripped increases to the commonwealth rent assistance (CRA) payment, with house rentals in capital cities rising by an average of 13.8% over the last two years while rent assistance has risen by a maximum of 4.52%, leaving low-income renters hardest hit by the national rental crisis.
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that a friend who served alongside war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith in Afghanistan has denied that he lied for his former comrade in court to ensure his legal bills would continue to be paid by Robert-Smith’s employer in a separate war crimes inquiry.
    The Guardian tells us the Seven Network was paying the legal fees of several SAS witnesses for Ben Roberts-Smith in his defamation trial until one of them revealed the payments in the federal court, contradicting Seven’s claim last week that the former soldier’s evidence about the source of the payments was “not correct”.
    Labor has defended its plan to replace the agriculture visa announced by the federal government last year and offer more incentives to farm workers from the Pacific.
    The Conversation explains how the Russia-Ukraine war is worsening climate-linked food shortages.
    Here we go again! The mayor of Canada Bay council allegedly accepted trips to Shanghai paid for by collapsed property group iProsperity in return for supporting its plans for an apartment block five times the height allowed, a corruption inquiry has heard.
    Sarah McPhee tells us that a six-month trial has begun for five people accused of conspiring to defraud the Tax Office of $105 million, with one of them allegedly saying it “would be the biggest tax fraud in Australia’s history”. This is the Plutus case, which involved the illegal conversion of GST payments.
    The ABC’s former Pacific correspondent, Jemima Garrett, says that the Pacific must hear our voices, but we must listen to theirs.
    Mick Ryan warns that China’s transformed military must not be underestimated.
    Musk has succeeded in buying Twitter, but now he has to make it pay, says Elizabeth Knight.
    Boris Johnson is flailing – so he is reviving his Brexit greatest hits, writes Rafael Behr.
    Stephen Brook watched Piers Morgan’s new show, so we don’t have to.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    Matt Golding

    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark David

    Peter Broelman

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare


    From the US

  31. Morning folks, this week’s Ulhmann Poll is showing a 90-10 2PP split in favour of Deves. This poll is known to be the most accurate as God himself was polled in the sample of 1.

  32. The disparity between Morgan and Ipsos on the WA figures is very large. Not so much In Qld. As William said, they should be treated with great caution.

  33. mor rubish from masola 9 news is just as bad as news corp with acseption of harcher pliberseck is okay but sceen as to close to shorten great to see peny wong used more as shes laqbors strongist shadow and seems to know her portfoleo ashame she is not in lower house and charmers after shortins trole in trying to undermining labors election with kitching albanese should send him of to woshington as our ambasada as soon as he wins funy masola does not mention thaht faafter rustons train reck on health shes been sidelind and michaelia cash is no where acsept 2gb and 6pr pluse did not advicate the religis fredom stunt leaving it to junier spokesman amanda stoaker to take the fall and colebeck on aged care is in witnes protection and what about hawke and mortinrobbert supozidly morrisons inner circle but get no media profile clair is under used

  34. Its getting to the stage where we need seat-by-seat lists of probables and possibles to narrow it down further.
    That is Morrison’s lifeline. He is hoping the swings against him are in safe Liberal seats. Uhlmann is desperately clinging to it too. But i find it hard to believe Morrisons ‘man o the people’ charade will convince as many this time as it seemed to in 2019.

  35. Some reputations may come to grief with this election.

    The Queensland swing may vindicate or finally end Morgan polling.

    An ALP majority may put so much egg on Uhlmann’s face he has to go where all total clowns end up, Sky after dark, where he can finally let his personal views fly free of the little restraint he still manages to keep.

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