The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
Bilbo on abc news! Now
Alpo at 4.25pm
Golden line or golden shower?
D,
If you are entitled, it will be there from today.
Check out if you’re eligible.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-29/250-dollar-payment-tax-cuts-who-gets-what-from-budget/100948468
WB on abc now
WB on ABC with Fran.. giving an accomplished example of Pollies dark art.. speaking without saying anything.
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:29 pm
Upnorth,
I despise the Greens and always put them last in the HOR and never preference them in the Senate.
=======•••••========
Well being a Queenslander I have an special hatred for Hanson. So I tell you what. Let’s split the difference.
One Nation last and Greens second to last (sorry Fire-Fox).
I just vote above the line in the Senate. Our Party Secretary, whilst a lefty, has done a good job so will take her advice.
Sir you are man great character and resolve I tip me lid to you.
@Cronus
Yes those posters predicting some sort of demographic cliff for the Tories need to take some deep breaths and then meditate on that prediction.
William speaks well.
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:38 pm
WB on ABC with Fran.. giving an accomplished example of Pollies dark art.. speaking without saying anything.
=======•••”””========
Sorry no ABC up here. Do your mean “our” WB? Our lord and master?
Apart from being Bree and Wayne he will also be stealing our gear.
William you sly old dog.
Voodoo Blues at 4:40 pm
20+ years ago we were also told the Coalition were on the edge of a demographic cliff.
Why is Morrison campaigning in seats with 8 and 12 per cent margin?
I’d reckon any liberal member with less than that margin doesn’t want him around. These are the people who don’t use liberal branding and won’t use his image in campaign material.
Likewise those being opposed by independents.
He would drag the vote down and they’ve probably got polling to prove it.
OK class.Teacher is out of the room, let the paper dart throwing and general rowdiness commence.
“One Nation last and Greens second to last (sorry Fire-Fox). ”
***
So apart from Pauline, you’re going to put Clive Palmer, Campbell Newman, Amanda Stoker, and the many other far right ultra conservative nutters running for the Senate in QLD ahead of the Greens?
Not only is PAP a champion of the progressive left, she even has a hyphenated surname, unlike all the other QLD Senate candidates! What more could you want?!?
‘William Bowe on ABC New24 Afternoon Briefing, now.’
alias
Nice smile, William, but … you didn’t make me feel comfortable abt the polls. Darn it.
How on earth did Labor let this mob get away with bragging about the economy for so long.
More magic from Jason Clare today, how to effectively cut through the BS from the Coalition and their media mates:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1519192547289026560
Anyone heard of this?
ratsak @ #503 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 2:50 pm
I had already factored that in. The 0.9 quota mark is where he’d need to be to have any chance of winning.
Exhaustion isn’t nearly as big a problem as you think, for the ACT. There are only 11 parties (23 candidates), and you have to number to at least 6 (or 12 BTL). When it comes down to it, the irrelevant parties won’t get enough vote to make much difference, and the relevant parties will see strong preference flows to each other (but not to Zed).
In 2019, UAP got 0.06 quotas and Sustainable got 0.04 quotas. FACN got 0.02 quotas and “others” got 0.03 quotas. Between them, that accounted for 0.15 quotas. The non-relevant parties are likely to perform similarly in 2022 – that is, aside from Labor, Liberal, Pocock, Rubenstein, and Greens, it’s likely that there would be less than 0.2 quotas spread among them.
Which is why Seselja getting less than 0.9 quotas would basically guarantee he loses. Among Labor, Greens, Pocock, and Rubenstein, there should be strong preference flows, with all four going to each other most of the time rather than going to the non-relevants. Among the non-relevants, there are six parties… but most will flow in a way that doesn’t exhaust. For example, it’s likely that a lot of AJP preferences will flow to LCP, Progressives, then to Greens/Pocock/Rubenstein. Progressives are likely to flow to LCP, Greens, Rubenstein, Pocock, and then Labor.
Labor being in first position will capture the donkey voters, which will substantially reduce the impact (because Labor managing to get both seats is, which theoretically possible, not going to happen – so the votes will be scaled down due to quota effects).
Exhaustion can be a big issue when there are a lot of parties. 11 isn’t enough for it to be an issue. Basically, Seselja would need to reach at least 0.97 quotas after preferences to be capable of winning the seat… and there’s just not enough right-wing votes to get it there… and not enough left-wing parties to cause exhaustion on the left to matter.
Voodoo Blues
Bloody medicine keeping the buggers going! They are sobering figures however, nothing like a dose of reality.
What the Coalition faces is a reckoning for its corruption and its incompetence.
Bring it on.
Fire-Fox says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:49 pm
“One Nation last and Greens second to last (sorry Fire-Fox). ”
***
So apart from Pauline, you’re going to put Clive Palmer, Campbell Newman, Amanda Stoker, and the many other far right ultra conservative nutters running for the Senate in QLD ahead of the Greens?
Not only is PAP a champion of the progressive left, she even has a hyphenated surname, unlike all the other QLD Senate candidates! What more could you want?!?
===========
Hey hey hey. Settle down. You will do a foo foo valve. Re-read my post cobber.
Have a cup of peppermint tea. I said I was voting above the line in the Senate.
ALP flows it will go to your guys before those lunatics. You won’t be counted in the top two Upnorth in the HOR. I guarantee that.
I just won’t preference to you blokes in the HOR after what you did to Jackie Trad at the last State Election.
Alpo @ #599 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 4:32 pm
You think Morrison wants Morrison to show his face in Cook? Morrison showing his face would tank Morrison’s chance of holding onto his seat.
Look forward to reminding WB about his prediction of a long Election night & waiting on WA results.. I’m predicting A Green calling it for Labor before WA gets into it’s count
So, have Labor done a dirty deal with PHON …?
Greensborough Growlersays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:52 pm
Is every one who received their ex gratis $250 payment from the Government today going to stay bought?
In anticipation of its arrival, possibly tomorrow, I added it to my usual election donation to ALP HQ. It seemed a positive way to use it.
GlenO
There is a far greater level of uncertainty than you seem to believe.
The Greens bleed something like 20% when they prefer Labor.
There is no particular reason to think that Greens preferences won’t do the same thing with respect to Pocock. Or worse. We don’t know because we have not been there.
We don’t know who or even if Pocock will direct preferences. The Greens have not done him a favour, BTW. They have gone out of their way to preference Kim. Kim is on 4% so that is rabbit down the hole stuff. Not sure what the Greens are up to here.
We can be reasonably sure that a substantial number of Pocock voters who are ex-Liberal and who would die rather than preference either Labor or the Greens. They may well preference Seselja.
Labor votes are difficult to predict. I know several people ho are normally dyed-in-the-wool Labor voters who are going to vote Pocock 1, Labor 2. Others I know will preference Pocock after they vote Labor.
Firefox says Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:30 pm
So how does a Kim Rubenstein get a party of 1500 while retaining control?
ratsaksays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:19 pm
he speaks so slowly and deliberately that it sounds like he’s addressing a group of five-year-olds with poor comprehension skills.?
A handy skill for anyone wanting to communicate with Liberal voters.
—
Touche. Lol
“Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 5:02 pm
So, have Labor done a dirty deal with PHON …?”
You wish and it speaks volumes that’s where your brain skips straight to!
Far more likely the Libs aren’t coming good with what ever PHON are demanding
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 5:02 pm
So, have Labor done a dirty deal with PHON …?
No Rex. It’s Pauline having a hissy fit because the Libs are preferencing Lambie ahead of her rep in Tas. She’ll preference the ALP against the moderate Libs not the Lib RWNJ’s.
If you want the L/NP out of Govt it’s illogical to put them anywhere other but absolute last – and even below Clive and Pauline and the other crackpots all of which who can’t win anyway.
“I just won’t preference to you bloke in the HOR after what you did to Jackie Trad at the last State Election.”
***
You should be thanking us – rightly or wrongly, Trad had become a drag on QLD Labor. It’s really good she’s been replaced by Amy Mac, who is a genuine progressive lefty fighting to make a difference. The more Greens in the parliaments of Australia the better.
One for CatsM@mma:
Andrew Clennell on Sky News said that the Coalition are increasingly concerned about retaining Robertson
C@t,
If you’re around.
Was it today you were handing out at a mall?
Any feedback?
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
14m
Reports PHON are cheesed off with Liberals recommending preferences to JLN instead of them in Tas and will recommend preferences to Labor in Bass (which they probably would have done anyway)
Citizen, wouldn’t believe the ON preferencing ALP … she changes her mind every time the wind changes direction!
GlenO,
Just pulled up the distribution pdf for 2019 from the AEC. You’re spot on re exhaustion at least as far as 2019 went.
I’d suspect it may have become more substantial had those Indie votes and Labor surplus been distributed, simply because obviously the more distributions to get to the result the more opportunity for exhaustion, but even so probably no where near as significant as I was thinking on first blush.
My optimism for Zed to be (politically) Dead is slightly increased. Now who’s going to ride off on his Chopper?
Also One Nation may not be manning all the booths all the times in Bass. Therefore HTVs might not count as much.
FF at 5.17pm
On behalf of the ALP, I get down on bended knee to express my galactic gratitude for your Greens exploiting what turned out to be baseless allegations against Trad to remove her from parliament.
A drag on the ALP? And here was I, thinking Greens were purists focused only on policy.
Your smarmy posting is the worst advertisement for your party.
Fire-Fox says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 5:07 pm
“I just won’t preference to you bloke in the HOR after what you did to Jackie Trad at the last State Election.”
***
You should be thanking us – rightly or wrongly, Trad had become a drag on QLD Labor. It’s really good she’s been replaced by Amy Mac, who is a genuine progressive lefty fighting to make a difference. The more Greens in the parliaments of Australia the better.
==============•
Poppy+Cock
I see the ever maudling Rexxy getting triggered by people exercising their democratic right to do what they want with their vote.
Good!
If interest rates go up before the poll I predict Lindsay will come into play as the hip pocket nerve bites.
24 days to go.
Bluey wonders why the Coalition is trying to eat itself alive. The Nationals are divided between pro- and anti- hydrogen MPs. Joyce is pro. Canavan is anti. Michelle Landry ordered Canavan to ‘pull his head in.’ The Nationals have reneged on the Zero net 2050 deal, exposing the Liberals in the Teal Seats even further. Morrison has been forced to throw oil onto the troubled waters. Not convincing. Bluey notes that the Great Coalition Zero Net 2050 Renege cuts the ground from under the Greens claims about same old same old.
The rental crisis shows no signs of abating. Morrison is not interested in the travails of the renters. He has two massive rent-free piles, so why should he even notice it?
Colleen Harkin, Liberal candidate for Macnamara joins the conga line of Coalition kooky candidates by describing calling global warming as a climate emergency is almost child abuse.
Bluey notes that house prices have flattened, shares have tanked, the dollar has tanked, inflation has a five in front of it, rent is through the roof… Bluey reckons the Coalition has run out of its single greatest asset: dumb luck.
Bluey wonders why the commentariat is playing around with the notion that 53/47 will result in a hung parliament – other than if they are promoting FUD. 53/47 gets you a Labor majority government.
Bluey thought Lelievre’s ‘Troughy McTroughface’ is the epitome of the Morrison Government.
Bluey notices that Morrison is working at stoking regional resentment at the inner urban elites and will promise 450,000 regional jobs. Bluey reckons of course he would.
Karen Andrews has another go at splaining the Coalition Solomons Fuckup: China. Bluey reckons ‘Hello?’
In yet another in the ever-lengthening conga line of Coalition bizarre candidates, Liberal National Party candidate Nicole Tobin has managed to combine racism, fattism and even ‘kindermusik” as a cure for the world’s ills. Just for good measure, she reckons her daughter is blessed by great genes and is therefore skinny.
For the first time in around 20 years the climate wedge has blown up in the Coalition’s face, national security has blown up in the coaltion’s face and, most of all, 5.1%, has blown up in the Coalition’s face. Bluey did a quick check of the front pages and, despite a heroic effort from Frydenberg trying to sell 5.1% as showing the need for ‘strength and stability’, the papers were not buying it. They know their readers are already feeling the hip pocket pain.
The ongoing Solomons fiasco and the Zero Net 50 fiasco are not helping at all.
The Coalition is suffering from a flock of Black Swans.
Bluey detects movement at the station and has added .5 to Mr Albanese’s column.
Score for the day. Morrison, 0; Albanese .5; the rest; zero.
Cumulative score. Morrison 2, Albanese 4, Joyce .5.
Nine newspapers site WAToday is reporting that the Greens candidate in Curtin will suggest Greens voters preference the independent Kate Chaney.
Boerwar @ #625 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 5:03 pm
Or, you could say that the Greens attract about 20% of their votes from Liberals, who are happy to vote Green but not Labor.
Labor might usefully ask themselves why this should be.
JenAuthor @ #635 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 5:14 pm
So the stories about making a face and being stuck with it when the wind blows are true or is that just the excuse she uses?
Greg Rudd: Surprising to me old mate that nobody is paying much attention to Lindsay.
I just looked up the TAB odds for the seat – Coalition 1.70, Labor 2.25
No visits as yet there from any Labor shadow ministers!
It’s time to think about who is going to win the “Sophie Mirabella nee Panopolous I lost my seat when my party won government” prize.
The nominations are:
Terri Butler – Griffith (to the Greens)
Kristina Keneally – Fowler (to an Independent)
Strictly speaking KK cannot win the prize because she has never been elected by the good folk of Fowler but I have decided to allow 2 nominations because of the existing ALP margin of 14% in Fowler.
Tom, I’ve seen her contradict her own stance in a single statement, she is so confused.
“A drag on the ALP? And here was I, thinking Greens were purists focused only on policy.
Your smarmy posting is the worst advertisement for your party.”
***
You need to take your Labor red coloured glasses off mate. By the time we won South Brisbane, Trad had become a real negative for QLD Labor. The Greens were surging in the seat well before she became a daily headline too.
It’s not unusual for Labor to blame all their own problems on the Greens though, so none of this surprises me.
Besides, Trad was part of the QLD Labor Government who enabled the climate vandalism known as the Adani (Bravus) Carmichael Mine. She deserved to go.
Lars, gotta give you points for pure quixotism. Fowler 14% Griffith 3% with a likely swing of more than 3%