Drawing it out

The closure of nominations confirmed growing ballot papers for the House and shrinking ones for the Senate.

Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, and full candidate lists have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission and incorporated into my election guide. There are 1203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1056 in 2019, an average of around eight per seat. The United Australia Party is again contesting every seat, and One Nation, which contested 15 seats in 2016 and 59 in 2019, is now contesting every seat but Kennedy and Higgins. Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates, the Australian Federation Party with 61 and Animal Justice with 48.

Conversely, the impact of the 2016 reforms continue to whittle away at the number of micro-parties running for the Senate: the number of columns on Senate ballot papers is down from 35 to 23 in New South Wales, 31 to 26 in Victoria, 26 to 25 in Queensland, 23 to 22 in Western Australia, 16 to 14 in Tasmania and nine to eight in the Northern Territory, though it’s up from 16 to 22 in South Australia and seven to 11 in the Australian Capital Territory.

Other news:

• With the announcement of nominations, it is confirmed that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the safe Liberal seat of Flinders as an independent at last month’s South Australian state election, will run against Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the corresponding seat of Grey.

• Shortly after the publication of candidate details, the Australian Electoral Commission issued a statement noting that Rodney Culleton, who leads the Senate ticket of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, appeared to be an undischarged bankrupt, contrary to a declaration he signed when he nominated. It has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Culleton was elected as One Nation’s Senator for Western Australia at the 2016 double dissolution, but was found to be ineligible the following February on the grounds that he was awaiting sentencing for a minor criminal conviction at the time of his nomination, which came two months after he was declared bankrupt.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review cites unspecified sources who rate that the strongest possibilities for teal independents are Wentworth, North Sydney and, “to a slightly lesser extent”, Goldstein. A Liberal source is quoted saying these independents would be less at risk of backing a Labor government than Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott proved to be after 2010, having “developed their own network of voters”.

• Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”. Similarly, Labor strategists cited by Tony Wright of the Age/Herald merely “hope” they can win Hasluck.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,487 comments on “Drawing it out”

Comments Page 28 of 30
1 … 27 28 29 30

  2. Anyone else see the news about GetUp going to work in Goldstein and mentally adjusting the odds against Zoe Daniel?

    I honestly thought GetUp had gone away for this election cycle, between how absolutely silent they’ve been and how much of a fucking disaster they were in 2019.

    Go away GetUp. The Teals don’t need your stench on them. Any hint of being left wing tools hurts the Teals. Ffs. GetUp 2019 more thoroughly trashed their brand in one campaign than the Australian Democrats.

  3. south:

    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:50 pm

    [‘Mavis,

    I really hope Ferguson can restore the 7:30 brand.’]

    If her work on “Four Corners” is a guide, I have every confidence she will. She’s fearless, forensic, and has integrity.

  4. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:57 pm

    Nath seems to have a Pollyanna view on CCP influence on our polity
    ______
    I got my Aldi bag, how bout you?

  5. From everything I’ve heard, Liu’s a major liability in her own right who would seem an unlikely candidate for an uninformed sympathy vote. The LNP attempt to smear Labor over that attack just makes them seem hopelessly contorted over China given that they’ve spent a good three years dogwhistling about China and systematically blowing up the relationship.

  6. nath @ #1343 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:53 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:49 pm

    Is her electorate, many of whom have emigrated to Australia to get away from the CCP, going to throw their support behind someone who is a cuckoo in their nest? I’m not so sure.
    _________
    If she is a ‘cuckoo’ then it is a really deep cover situation since she has spoken up for HK democracy and supported things the CCP are against. I’m certain that she would have lost pre-selection if there was anything ASIO was certain about.

    Those who have a more intimate knowledge of the situation don’t believe your absolution of Gladys Liu via statements conveniently made once she was ensconced in the Australian parliament:

    Pro-democracy activist from Hong Kong Max Mok has announced his intention to contest the Melbourne marginal seat held by the Liberal MP who he accuses of being too close to the Chinese Communist Party.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/chinese/english/hong-kong-democracy-fighter-mounts-campaign-to-unseat-gladys-liu-at-the-next-election

  8. Upnorth, you’re guilty of the crime of mistyping your email address in the comments form, causing you to be identified as a new commenter whose first comment needs to be cleared for spam-prevention purposes. You can prevent this by registering at the bottom of the sidebar, which means you won’t have to fill out your email address each time you post.

  12. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    some light reading for you nath…
    __________
    I’m in the unique position of not knowing the truth about her links to the CCP.

  13. Evening Nematodes. Yes, it’s that time again.

    What a campaign start… hahahaha!

    1. Nope, can’t remember the figure the coalition boasts about every bloody day in parliament… yep 4% Albo.
    2. No need for detention centres if we do boat turn backs… oh hang on, maybe we do?
    3. Good Question… Do I support boat turn backs because I said, in the Rudd Government that it can’t work… It did work, right? Yeah I guess I do support it.
    4. Hmm did I support turnbacks in 2013 as Deputy PM… no I don’t think it was even Coalition Policy… oh it was, yes, that’s right Scott Morrison came up with it in 2012 did he?
    5. Richard Marles, good bloke. Loves Beijing, says they should go for it in the Solomons…
    6. Scott Morrison has a massive stuff up in Solomons… err yeah, I think Richard Marles was pretty happy about the result… I guess you are right, if Scott gave a bigger bribe to the corrupt government, he could have avoided the Beijing Military foothold on our doorstep… more of a Labor strategy given the penchant for corruption though…
    7. Marles, again.
    8. Oh, and Marles… make him defence minister maybe??
    9. Albo with COVID… If he has the week off the polls might actually go Labor’s way.
    10. Yep, the Coalition is talking Coal.. ALP screwed.

  17. Perhaps Barry’s comments could be the headline?

    But they do not seem to even be reported apart from a 10 second clip on TV

    Barry was also critical of diplomatic appointments of politicians

  18. @Sohar – either Kroger is full of it or YouGov has some questions to answer.

    Overall, I dare say, one is more likely than the other.

  20. Even Andrew Bolt has been belling the cat on Gladys Liu..

    Liu agreed to an interview with Sky News host Andrew Bolt, presumably with the intention of quashing suggestions that her integrity was compromised. But on air, she seemed nervous and evasive, fanning speculation that she had something to hide. She said she couldn’t remember being on the council of the Guangdong chapter of the China Overseas Exchange Association for 12 years to 2015. “If I can’t recall, I can’t be an active member of that council, can I?” she said. Neither could she remember being honorary president of the United Chinese Commerce Association of Australia.

    When Bolt tried to draw Liu into criticising China, she demurred, declining to use the word “illegal” to describe the country’s military expansion in the South China Sea and refusing to categorise China’s president, Xi Jinping, as a dictator. She said she supported Australian government policy on China and always put Australia’s interests first. Bolt finished the interview with a showman’s flourish: “Gladys Liu, are you in effect a spokesman for the Chinese Communist regime in Australia?” She replied, “The simple answer is no.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pawn-or-player-the-competing-narratives-about-controversial-liberal-mp-gladys-liu-20191205-p53h94.html

  21. Joan
    @JoanBloggs

    Replying to
    @9NewsAUS
    and
    @CUhlmann
    How has it backfired? Because Frydenberg & Morrison said so? Facts are facts. If LNP can’t refute them, then their faux backfire has backfired on THEM.
    Gladys Liu allegedly has NUMEROUS questions surrounding her ‘dealings’ & this isn’t even exhaustive.

  23. Not much thought or focus on the ecosystem impacts of extreme fire and flood events. That is the elephant in the room below a disrupted climate…..

  24. Yeah, seems like this was the escalation pathway:

    1) Labor launched the attack on SI/ China deal
    2) Liberals respond by attacking Marles over China
    3) Labor responds by attacking Gladys Liu on China

    Who does better out of China as an issue?

  25. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:12 pm

    Even Andrew Bolt has been belling the cat on Gladys Liu..
    ______
    Oh well. Fair enough then.

  26. Arkysays:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 8:52 pm
    Chisholm is hard. And if the ALP thought it was going to be a slam dunk they wouldn’t be committing to a specific anti-Gladys ad.
    —
    Your mistake, here, is thinking that this is an anti-Liu ad. The timing is very, very intentional. China is a big issue for the Coalition right now, and the ad serves as a huge wedge for the party. The ad was always going to get national attention, especially given the China situation, and they’ve done it in a way that hits the Coalition on a heap of points at once.

    – It points out Liu’s supposed connections to the CCP and donations from sources that were security risks, which gives emphasis to the Coalition’s failure on the Solomon Islands, the Port issue, etc.
    – It draws attention to misinformation, which parallels Morrison’s issues in the area.
    – It causes the Coalition to have to respond, which only amplifies the message.
    – It simultaneously plays well to voters of Asian descent (because it emphasises it being misinformation rather than any fault on their part) and racist voters, without being racist.

    As much as I think it’s the wrong way to do it (I’m not a huge fan of dirty tactics), I have no doubt that it wasn’t really about Chisholm at all.

  27. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:14 pm

    Yeah, seems like this was the escalation pathway:

    1) Labor launched the attack on SI/ China deal
    2) Liberals respond by attacking Marles over China
    3) Labor responds by attacking Gladys Liu on China

    Who does better out of China as an issue?
    ____________
    I think Morrison might have started it at the debate, saying Labor was on China’s side.

  31. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 6:39 pm
    Dutton probably is a believer in the philosophy of telling a porkie often enough will get people to believe it.
    ”

    Dutton was QLD ex- policeman. Enough said.

  32. nath @ #1362 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 10:10 pm

    sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    some light reading for you nath…

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742615/Gladys-Liu-photographed-Chinese-spy-Nick-Zhao-event-home-2016.html
    __________
    Weren’t there a lot of photos of heaps of Labor people with Huang Xiangmo?

    False equivalence. Labor did something about it. The Coalition haven’t. The Coalition speak out of both sides of their mouth about China. On the one hand encouraging Chinese-Australians to vote for them and support them with donations, on the other hand vilifying the CCP and saying that it’s Labor who are too close to China. Yet the Coalition have, among their number, someone who actually has had close association with the entity the Coalition are attempting to vilify. They can’t have it both ways. As much as they are trying to.

  33. Still not sure China works better as an issue for the ALP than it does for the LNP. I guess we’ll know soon enough.

  34. C@tmomma says:

    False equivalence. Labor did something about it. The Coalition haven’t.
    ___________________
    Yeah but there’s a photo of a Labor MP with a Chinese operative:

  36. perhaps a mistake to atack her personaly but libs attackt dastyari all the time as he was probaly there best retail politician since rudd on lou reportid in 2016 that she ran a sucessful we chat campaign in 2016 that helpt banks win chizolm and targited labor over trans ishues and gay marige and also said libs would be mor suportive of china frydenberg did same in 2019 aand evengot a staffer siman frost to put chinease languuage adds in newstelling chinease votersin rezembelence to ilectorial comitionthe corect vote was liberal would of been smarter for labor to in stead go aftrer duton and rehash nick mckenzeys 4 corners report that duton mentore former sen santo santorow was lobeying to keep wang gang mo in the country in stead of lou was bill ochiex nashanals senater chinease and sebin chen

  37. nath @ #1380 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 10:22 pm

    C@tmomma says:

    False equivalence. Labor did something about it. The Coalition haven’t.
    ___________________
    Yeah but there’s a photo of a Labor MP with a Chinese operative:


    ?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=14147a59281559560cc3777d90e5619a

    A ghost photo? Anyway, what’s the date when that photo, presuming you can figure out how to post it, was taken?

  38. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:21 pm

    Still not sure China works better as an issue for the ALP than it does for the LNP. I guess we’ll know soon enough.
    __________________
    A careful dance for both parties. Dog whistling on China while still trying to hoover up as much cash as they can.

  39. am thinking if Libs know the Newspoll result but it is not being publicised until tomorrow, likely they want to bury it by releasing on Anzac day when ppl are looking elsewhere (like take-out-the-trash-friday)

  42. south @ #1332 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 7:47 pm

    Being Anzac day tomorrow, and the Solomon Islands being in focus, can I recommend a mega sad film to everyone. The Thin Red Line. Whilst American, it really captures the waste that is war.

    Spare a prayer tomorrow for the people of Ukraine, we are lucky to be a world away from it.

    There’s a scene where the Americans are trying to take a Japanese lookout post just outside Honiara.

    They had to approach form downhill and the hill was a virtual cliff with very little in the way of cover.

    I’ve stood in that lookout and have no idea how they managed to get up and take it.

    Horrifying!

  43. ‘Gaslit’ on Stan has, so far, been a very entertaining retelling of the Watergate break-in. Looks like being a good one. Sean Penn having lots of fun with his G. Gordon Liddy character.

  44. Lest anyone forget this whole isssue is a pre-occupation for Uhlmann.

    @Jen… ftr, I don’t think Sky knows the Newspoll results… yet.

  45. Sohar says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:28 pm
    ‘Gaslit’ on Stan has, so far, been a very entertaining retelling of the Watergate break-in. Looks like being a good one. Sean Penn having lots of fun with his G. Gordon Liddy character.
    ____________________________________________
    Yeah – first 5 mins dialogue ” we are good men who came from wet enlarged vaginas” – totally sexist crap to watch.

  48. ________________________________________
    Yeah – first 5 mins dialogue ” we are good men who came from wet enlarged vaginas” – totally sexist crap to watch.
    ________
    Sounds like one of your movies!

  49. Sohar @ #1388 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 10:28 pm

    ‘Gaslit’ on Stan has, so far, been a very entertaining retelling of the Watergate break-in. Looks like being a good one. Sean Penn having lots of fun with his G. Gordon Liddy character.

    Yes, I want to watch that too. Julia Roberts looking as gorgeous as ever, sans plastic surgery or enhancements.

  50. Just saw a UAP ad knocking Josh’s $250 bribe. Interesting considering all Clive’s previous ads seem to have been equally anti Labor and anti LNP.

Comments Page 28 of 30
1 … 27 28 29 30

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *