Drawing it out

The closure of nominations confirmed growing ballot papers for the House and shrinking ones for the Senate.

Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, and full candidate lists have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission and incorporated into my election guide. There are 1203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1056 in 2019, an average of around eight per seat. The United Australia Party is again contesting every seat, and One Nation, which contested 15 seats in 2016 and 59 in 2019, is now contesting every seat but Kennedy and Higgins. Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates, the Australian Federation Party with 61 and Animal Justice with 48.

Conversely, the impact of the 2016 reforms continue to whittle away at the number of micro-parties running for the Senate: the number of columns on Senate ballot papers is down from 35 to 23 in New South Wales, 31 to 26 in Victoria, 26 to 25 in Queensland, 23 to 22 in Western Australia, 16 to 14 in Tasmania and nine to eight in the Northern Territory, though it’s up from 16 to 22 in South Australia and seven to 11 in the Australian Capital Territory.

Other news:

• With the announcement of nominations, it is confirmed that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the safe Liberal seat of Flinders as an independent at last month’s South Australian state election, will run against Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the corresponding seat of Grey.

• Shortly after the publication of candidate details, the Australian Electoral Commission issued a statement noting that Rodney Culleton, who leads the Senate ticket of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, appeared to be an undischarged bankrupt, contrary to a declaration he signed when he nominated. It has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Culleton was elected as One Nation’s Senator for Western Australia at the 2016 double dissolution, but was found to be ineligible the following February on the grounds that he was awaiting sentencing for a minor criminal conviction at the time of his nomination, which came two months after he was declared bankrupt.

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review cites unspecified sources who rate that the strongest possibilities for teal independents are Wentworth, North Sydney and, “to a slightly lesser extent”, Goldstein. A Liberal source is quoted saying these independents would be less at risk of backing a Labor government than Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott proved to be after 2010, having “developed their own network of voters”.

Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”. Similarly, Labor strategists cited by Tony Wright of the Age/Herald merely “hope” they can win Hasluck.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,487 comments on “Drawing it out”

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  1. Anyway, I’m just glad that Jason Yat Sen Li got out of China before they could detain him too on trumped up charges of some sort. He’s a major asset to Labor.

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga,
    When I was in East Timor we would patrol from sea level in Dili up into the hills (they felt big) around the city. It was crazy hard and I was really fit. That battle for that hill in the movie is really something.

  3. Politics and business alike both had a head-spinning decade of going from “China is a huge cashed-up market let’s milk as much as we can from it!” to “Gotta stay away from China, can’t be seen associating with mainland China or their money”.

    Mining concerns seem immune to this, but otherwise whether you are a university, a State government, a biomedical start up or an IT services outfit, 10 years ago you were being slagged if you weren’t going in hard for that Chinese cash, and now you are slagged if you got it.

  4. Come on guys, seriously, you have had three years in the wilderness to think up better insults for me.

    I knew I wasn’t getting anything close to intelligent argument from any of you partisan toads… I rarely have here. I just can’t believe so many of you still support your wretched party… none so blind as those who will not see…

    You continue to be wedged/beaten on the following issues:
    1. Anything to do with boats. You broke something that was fixed (badly), denied that the solution would work. It did. Now you are trying to convince the electorate that somehow you would be better in this area… precisely how?

    2. Coal. What the Fuschia does your bloody party believe about coal??? For it or against it??? Make up your friggin’ mind.

    3. Solomon Islands. You can’t (simultaneously) support Richard Marles’ position on the Solomons while supporting Penny Wong’s assessment that the Coalition’s lack of action is the worst blunder in foreign policy since WW2. Either the Coalition should have done more to save the Solomons from Chinese bribes (by having better bribes, I presume??) or Marles ought to have apologised and changed his attitude about his laissez faire attitude to China’s influence in the Solomons (especially if he is, as rumoured, like to be the defence minister in a fictitious Albo ALP Govt).

    4. What does your party think about women??? Almost none can define what a woman is and yet Albo believes that girls sport should be for girls?? How, if you don’t know what a ‘girl’ is?? Yes… the electorate is equally confused (and incredulous) given the mixed message.

    5. The biggest problem is that you can’t get the seats. 19 seats under 5% and 7 under 1.5% but you needed to (net) gain 8. How? Where?

    You can insult all you like, because that is all you can do. I get it. Rationality has to leave the building when you are blindly araldited to your party.

    It is going to fail… again. This position is worse than last time and Albo is not doing as well as Shorten did at this point last time.

  5. Arky says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:47 pm

    Politics and business alike both had a head-spinning decade of going from “China is a huge cashed-up market let’s milk as much as we can from it!” to “Gotta stay away from China, can’t be seen associating with mainland China or their money”.

    Mining concerns seem immune to this, but otherwise whether you are a university, a State government, a biomedical start up or an IT services outfit, 10 years ago you were being slagged if you weren’t going in hard for that Chinese cash, and now you are slagged if you got it.
    ________________
    That’s very true. Either way Yum Cha is still awesome.

  6. south @ #1395 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 8:40 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga,
    When I was in East Timor we would patrol from sea level in Dili up into the hills (they felt big) around the city. It was crazy hard and I was really fit. That battle for that hill in the movie is really something.

    I was in the Solomon’s in the early ’90s it was amazing how many scars from the war were still evident.

    If you walked up into the hills behind Honiara there was still evidence of single person foxholes alongside the ridge line trails.

    Also there was some amazing wreck diving close to Honiara where you could just walk into the water and you were on the wreck, you could choose from Japanese supply ships, a US sub or even a US fighter plane.

    Fantastic place.

  7. Trolling for trash. Only been living on manufactured consent. You can fool some of the people some of the time but you can’t fool all the people all the time. Don’t litter. Put it in the bin.

  8. nathsays:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:31 pm
    In any case, the sooner Penny Wong becomes FM the better.
    _____________________
    You have not followed her political career very closely have you.
    A lot of losses and not many wins.
    Feel free to elaborate on the wins. It won’t take you very long.

  9. Taylormade @ #1406 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 11:08 pm

    nathsays:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:31 pm
    In any case, the sooner Penny Wong becomes FM the better.
    _____________________
    You have not followed her political career very closely have you.
    A lot of losses and not many wins.
    Feel free to elaborate on the wins. It won’t take you very long.

    Because that useless lump that you support has been so effective, eh?

  10. William Bowe says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    Upnorth, you’re guilty of the crime of mistyping your email address in the comments form, causing you to be identified as a new commenter whose first comment needs to be cleared for spam-prevention purposes. You can prevent this by registering at the bottom of the sidebar, which means you won’t have to fill out your email address each time you post.
    =======================
    Thank you Lord and Master. I must admit I was out and about on my IPhone and was not logged in.

    But I shall use the SfM defence – It was the IPhone that did it!

  11. Taylormade @ #1404 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:08 pm

    nathsays:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:31 pm
    In any case, the sooner Penny Wong becomes FM the better.
    _____________________
    You have not followed her political career very closely have you.
    A lot of losses and not many wins.
    Feel free to elaborate on the wins. It won’t take you very long.

    Says the great Labor historian. 😆

  12. Funny how the blue pill is one that men need to take when they can’t do what it takes naturally. Appropriate for the Liberals. 😆

  13. Take from this what you will. The same contact in NSW Libs who correctly called Gladys’ resignation timing has advised that the internal polling federally is catastrophic. Many seats to fall, many under threat, lots of voters with minds already made up etc. The contact is philosophical and resigned to a loss, wants a complete clean out, no love lost with Morrison.

  14. Getting the RAN to sink the boats would have worked. Just because something might work doesn’t make it right. A high level of irregular maritime arrivals was a wicked problem which was politicised as a dogwhistle to racists. The so-called “Pacific Solution” will one day be a source of profound national shame, assuming that Australia remains a democratic and fundamentally decent country (neither of which is guaranteed).

    Coal should be phased out over the next few decades. We can’t stop using the stuff tomorrow but we should be managing it down with an aim to phase it out sooner rather than later. For the time being we should sell it to anyone who still wants to buy it but we certainly not be promoting it nor staking our future on exporting it. We need fair transition for workers and regions dependent upon coal. The investors can get stuffed.

    Solomon Islands – Labor has been out of power for 9 years. During that time, the right wing Coalition has treated our Pacific neighbours with disdain and contempt. It’s their mess. Exactly what does the right wing coalition that actually has its hands on the levers to power propose to do about it beyond further distraction and dog-whistling?

    Labor’s record on women speaks for itself. So does the right wing coalition’s. Another distraction and dogwhistle.

    Regarding seats, we shall see.

  15. Just saw the Gladys Liu ad, don’t see an issue with it, it’s based on facts. I’m seeing a lot of projection in Morrison’s responses lately. He says Labor is targeting her because she’s Chinese, bit rich coming from someone who tried to use Towke’s heritage against him to overturn his preselection. Morrison has also never been shy in causing harm to people, be they refugees, transgender people, or anyone else if he thinks it serves his own political purposes. His only skills seem to be in the dark arts, 100% politics and leave any substance for someone else.

  16. bluepill;

    If you believe what your saying, you might want to put your money where your mouth is.
    The odds are getting better every day if your backing Libs, but im sure they will turn around soon…

    How many seat majority do you think the Coalition will end up with ?

  17. DON’T THINK FOR A MOMENT THEY DON’T WANT ALL PEOPLE ON CENTRELINK PAYMENTS ON THE INDUE CARD. THE BEST RORT OF OUR SOCIAL SECURITY SINCE THE JOB NETWORK PROVIDERS!

  18. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11:10 pm

    Taylormade @ #1406 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 11:08 pm

    nathsays:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:31 pm
    In any case, the sooner Penny Wong becomes FM the better.
    _____________________
    You have not followed her political career very closely have you.
    A lot of losses and not many wins.
    Feel free to elaborate on the wins. It won’t take you very long.

    Because that useless lump that you support has been so effective, eh?
    =========================
    HMAS Marise – currently keel hauled for barnicle removal.

  19. Kissinger turns 99 next month. Maybe, like Murdoch, he has been given a Ring of Power and he’ll gradually fade into a wraith in coming centuries.

  20. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11:08 pm

    nathsays:
    Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 10:31 pm
    In any case, the sooner Penny Wong becomes FM the better.
    _____________________
    You have not followed her political career very closely have you.
    A lot of losses and not many wins.
    Feel free to elaborate on the wins. It won’t take you very long.
    ______________
    What can I say. I have the utmost confidence in her, both her capability and integrity.

  21. And while they gut health, income and disability support, they plan to trash worker’s right. Oh yeah, please tell us what there is not to like.

  22. To which I’ll just add these examples of the fight back against the Transphobia play in the US (again, Morrison wouldn’t have had an original thought in his life):

    Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a Democrat, did not sit idly by after a Republican colleague sent out a fundraising email labeling her as someone who would “groom and sexualize kindergartners.” Instead, McMorrow blasted the lie in a powerful speech last week.

    The attack on McMorrow echoed common rhetoric among MAGA cultists, including the despicable attack on Ketanji Brown Jackson from Republican senators that the soon-to-be justice is “soft” on child pornographers. But McMorrow refused to let it slide. “I sat on it for a while, wondering: Why me? And then I realized: Because I am the biggest threat to your hollow, hateful scheme,” she said. “Because you can’t claim that you are targeting marginalized kids in the name of ‘parental rights’ if another parent is standing up to say no.”

    She concluded with this message: “I know that hate will only win if people like me stand by and let it happen. So I want to be very clear right now: Call me whatever you want. I hope you brought in a few dollars. I hope it made you sleep good last night. I know who I am. I know what faith and service means and what it calls for in this moment. We will not let hate win.” The Republican senator who sent out the email, McMorrow later said, wouldn’t bother to look her in the eye.

    McMorrow was not the only Democrat who recently stood up to bigots. Earlier this month, Missouri state Rep. Ian Mackey also went viral by denouncing the persecution of LGBTQ Americans. Addressing his Republican colleague Rep. Chuck Basye, who sponsored an amendment to a bill to prohibit transgender girls from participating in sports, Mackey noted that Basye’s gay brother had delayed coming out for fear of Basye’s reaction.

    “If I were your brother, I would have been afraid to tell you, too,” Mackey told him. “Because this is what you’re focused on. This is the legislation you want to put forward. This is what consumes your time.” Mackey, who is gay, continued: “I was afraid of people like you growing up. … I grew up in a school district that would vote tomorrow to put this in place. And for 18 years, I walked around with nice people like you who took me to ballgames, who told me how smart I was. And then [they] went to the ballot [box] and voted for crap like this. And I couldn’t wait to get out, to move to a part of our state that would reject this stuff. … Thank God I made it out.”

    “Gentlemen, I’m not afraid of you anymore,” Mackey concluded. “Because you’re gonna lose. You may win this today, but you’re going to lose.” It was a passionate demand for decency, for fairness and for empathy.

    These speeches went viral in large part because they are the sort of declarations of moral principle one hears too infrequently from Democrats. Cowed by the culture wars, they’ve tried to change the subject to economic issues, despite warnings and pleas that doing so would be morally and politically unsound. Most Americans stand with Democrats on these issues. Polling shows a majority of voters do not want censorship or book banning, do not like bullies and do not want prohibitions on classroom discussion of sexual orientation or gender identity.

    The MAGA crowd’s cultural grenades launched at schools are not a response to actual problems; they are an effort to stir up their own fearful and resentful base, which believes it has been victimized by far-left elites. When Republicans are called out for this hateful legislation masquerading as protection for children, their intentions are laid bare. Mackey is correct: If the hatemongers are confronted, they will lose power. Hopefully the rest of the party is listening and will stand up to the purveyors of bad-faith bills designed to inflame Americans and pit them against one another.

    For showing Democrats how to stand up to cultural bullies, we can say well done, Reps. Mackey and McMorrow.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/24/distinguished-pol-state-lawmakers-show-how-to-tackle-maga-hate/

    Bravo!

  23. Aldi would be loving the free promos re shopping bags.

    Good sturdy ones.

    Also, Aldi is an excellent store, in fact, may I say, anyone who goes elsewhere ie Colesworth, does not have much of an idea re budgeting.

  24. China remains Australia’s largest trading partner

    The relationships between business proprietors conducting that trading continues – including compliance and logistics resources such that products can enter the Australian market (and vice versa into China)

    Those impacted are NGO’s including our Universities because of the fall in student registrations

    And our travel businesses because incoming tourist numbers are no longer (including because Australia’s borders were closed for over 2 years until recently plus restrictions on entering China – which has a different response to the Pandemic than does Australia – noting China has a population of 1.4 billion with many of its Cities having populations equal to the population of Australia)

    Global businesses (including Australian businesses) service those 1.4 billion upwardly mobile Chinese

    The government rhetoric of “China” overlooks the logistics and the players who make the Nation of China Australia’s largest trading partner

    The damage done is at a government to government level courtesy of inflammatory threats made by the Australian government (such as Australia declaring War on China and putting blame on China over the Pandemic, replicating Trump Plus supporting Trump in his “easy to win trade war” with China

    As in all matters, it takes 2

    And, on Kroger, I have had establishment Liberals giving me their opinion on Kroger

    Not complimentary in any shape or form

  25. I’d like to think we at PB had something to do with this. Well done troops.

    “She’s the ABC host who caused a media storm when she formulated two lists on Twitter: one featuring a list of “Labor Trolls/Thugs” and the other labelled, even more provocatively, “Lobotomised Shitheads”.

    But on Saturday and Sunday, ABC News Breakfast weekend host Fauziah Ibrahim mysteriously disappeared from the show she co-hosts, almost as quickly as her now-deleted Twitter lists, after she caused a storm inside and outside the ABC in recent days.

    This came after one prominent Labor figure, former Senator Doug Cameron, even took to Twitter to out himself as one of Ibrahim’s alleged “lobotomised shitheads”.

    But the big question is: will Ibrahim return? Diary has now learnt that Ibrahim’s disappearance from the weekend edition of ABC News Breakfast coincided with fury among many internal ABC types that such a list had been published by one of the public broadcaster’s presenters in the midst of an election campaign – or for that matter, any time.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/the-abcs-labor-thugs-host-fauziah-ibrahim-disappears/news-story/9809050fd79b5e3284e26e4d28ecab49

  26. ALDI is terrible if you are on a budget, you go in for frozen pizza, beans and a box of chocolate teddy bears and come out with a whipper snipper, socket set and 50inch TV…

    To be honest, those that most need to budget wont have a choice with the indue card as ALDI sells very nice and budget friendly booze so off limits then

  27. One “Dickhead” out of the way for a while.

    “In the end, no amount of BYO RAT tests and other strict Covid-19 rules for the media pack travelling on Anthony Albanese’s bus were enough to shield the Labor leader or, for that matter, several members of the media contingent from catching the dreaded virus. Sky News’s Jonathan Lea, who of course made a big name for himself leading up to the 2019 election for his campaign-altering grilling of Bill Shorten on his climate change costings, was the latest media member of the Albo bus contingent to come down with the virus on the weekend.

    After a series of similarly tough interrogations of Albo and his deputy Richard Marles this campaign, the Labor leader’s team may be relieved just to get a week’s respite from the tenacious Sky scrapper. At one point, Lea even brought a pensioner into one of Albanese’s press conferences to ask a tough question on his behalf.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/the-abcs-labor-thugs-host-fauziah-ibrahim-disappears/news-story/9809050fd79b5e3284e26e4d28ecab49

  28. “I’d try the clouds, it’s free.”

    Trust me I may shout at clouds like Grandpa Simpson one day. Until then I will shout with reason about KICKING OUT THE MOST CORRUPT AND NEGLECTFUL GOVERNMENT since the Rum Corps.

    Don’t listen to Grandpa Simpson. You know it really is true.

  29. Upnorth,
    Why else choose a woman eye candy candidate? The spoonful of sugar to help the bitter medicine of bigotry go down.

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