Drawing it out

The closure of nominations confirmed growing ballot papers for the House and shrinking ones for the Senate.

Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, and full candidate lists have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission and incorporated into my election guide. There are 1203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1056 in 2019, an average of around eight per seat. The United Australia Party is again contesting every seat, and One Nation, which contested 15 seats in 2016 and 59 in 2019, is now contesting every seat but Kennedy and Higgins. Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates, the Australian Federation Party with 61 and Animal Justice with 48.

Conversely, the impact of the 2016 reforms continue to whittle away at the number of micro-parties running for the Senate: the number of columns on Senate ballot papers is down from 35 to 23 in New South Wales, 31 to 26 in Victoria, 26 to 25 in Queensland, 23 to 22 in Western Australia, 16 to 14 in Tasmania and nine to eight in the Northern Territory, though it’s up from 16 to 22 in South Australia and seven to 11 in the Australian Capital Territory.

Other news:

• With the announcement of nominations, it is confirmed that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the safe Liberal seat of Flinders as an independent at last month’s South Australian state election, will run against Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the corresponding seat of Grey.

• Shortly after the publication of candidate details, the Australian Electoral Commission issued a statement noting that Rodney Culleton, who leads the Senate ticket of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, appeared to be an undischarged bankrupt, contrary to a declaration he signed when he nominated. It has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Culleton was elected as One Nation’s Senator for Western Australia at the 2016 double dissolution, but was found to be ineligible the following February on the grounds that he was awaiting sentencing for a minor criminal conviction at the time of his nomination, which came two months after he was declared bankrupt.

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review cites unspecified sources who rate that the strongest possibilities for teal independents are Wentworth, North Sydney and, “to a slightly lesser extent”, Goldstein. A Liberal source is quoted saying these independents would be less at risk of backing a Labor government than Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott proved to be after 2010, having “developed their own network of voters”.

Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”. Similarly, Labor strategists cited by Tony Wright of the Age/Herald merely “hope” they can win Hasluck.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,487 comments on “Drawing it out”

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  1. “Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates …”

    Branded as Liberal Democrats on the ballot papers, thanks to their legal chicanery?

    Voter confusion between Liberal and Liberal Democrat candidates might have a marginally adverse impact on the former’s prospects in a few close contests.

  2. Deves is going from farcical to vaudeville. How long can SfM continue defending her? Aside from her bizarre effort to make her election platform solely about trans people in sport, hiding from the media just makes her look like a flake. Reminiscent of Michaelia Cash hiding behind a whiteboard to avoid the cameras.

    Voters and Liberal Party members were kept waiting more than 45 minutes to meet controversial candidate Katherine Deves on Friday night as advisers schemed for her to avoid the media waiting at the Forestville RSL.

    The event, with Liberal MP for Mackellar Jason Falinski, was billed as a “politics in the pub” style evening where journalists would ordinarily be welcome, but reporters and photographers were informed Deves would not enter the room under any circumstances if the media was present.

    A compromise of sorts was reached: Deves could be photographed outside the RSL, where she would pause momentarily to make a statement and perhaps take one or two questions. That was quickly downgraded to a short statement only.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-is-a-joke-farcical-scenes-as-deves-ushered-into-pub-event-20220422-p5afix.html

  3. A very sanguine assessment by LNP friendly journo Phil Coorey and his Liberal party insider mate. These so called teals are running hard on effective climate change action. The only liberal leader who has taken this seriously was Mal Turnbull. If we have a minority government after this election it won’t last a year. Barnaby, littleproud , Canavan and that most National party of liberals Angus Taylor will simply not permit meaningful action that impacts on fossil fuels and miners like Gina.

  4. It will be the end of the independents at the following federal election ,if they are campaigning for climate change and Federal Integrity Commission/ICAC and support the lib/nats who are against climate change and Federal Integrity Commission/ICAC

  5. • Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”.

    Come on Western Australia! You can do better than letting the bigots back in the door.

  6. I’m just happy that our candidate is #2 on the ticket and the Liberal is #4. It all helps. Plus, we’re after the Animal Justice Party candidate so we’ll probably get a nice flow of votes from that. 🙂

  7. Good Morning Scott, hope your pacing yourself for the final 4 weeks, we’ll need you at maximum posting intensity for the last fortnight.

  8. The Friday results were posted very late yesterday – so please excuse my late posting of these

    ALSO : NSW’s daily COVID-19 update to be scaled back -Detailed information about COVID cases, deaths and vaccination rates across the state will instead be detailed in weekly surveillance reports posted on the NSW Health website.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/nsw-health-changes-reporting-of-covid-19-information/101008330

    FRIDAY RESULTS :

    New South Wales :

    Health authorities confirmed another 13 COVID-related deaths in NSW today, all people aged in their 70s, 80s and 90s.

    Across the state there are 1,632 people hospitalised with the virus, and 63 of those are being treated in ICU.

    Another 15,283 positive cases were identified in the latest reporting period.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    Victoria :

    Victoria has reported 16 further COVID deaths and 9,439 new cases.

    There are 428 people in hospital, including 30 in ICUs.

    Some restrictions in the state will ease at 11.59pm tonight, including the requirement for close contacts of positive cases to isolate.

  9. Insiders Sunday, 24 Apr

    David Speers, Patricia Karvelas, David Crowe and Clare Armstrong are in Gladstone to hear what matters to voters in the seat of Flynn, discuss the campaign, debate, China-Solomons pact and Anthony Albanese’s COVID diagnosis

    Guests – beauty and the beast – Campaign Special From Gladstone – Jim Chalmers And Barnaby Joyce

  10. Hey AE , what do you think of the latest report that Sir Charles provided his speech to the Chinese Embassy before he delivered it?

    Is this normal practice?

  11. Guests – beauty and the beast – Campaign Special From Gladstone – Jim Chalmers And Barnaby Joyce

    I’m assuming they’ve tagged Barnaby as the beast, in which case: so appropriate!

  12. fess

    Very odd, Deves wants to represent the public but no meet them. She wants publicity then shuns it. This is a ridiculous show. The Libs in NSW don’t appear to me to have a deep well of political capital and they seem to be wasting much of it on this transphobic bigot. I feel like I’m misunderstanding something here or the Libs are simply using her as some sort of massive distraction that I don’t understand. I hope the ALP just ignore it.

  13. Katharine Murphy has belled the cat on Scott Morrison’s election strategy, and guess what, it’s not original:

    Voters in Britain are familiar with the concept of the “red wall” – a group of regional constituencies in the UK that traditionally voted Labour, but flipped to supporting Boris Johnson.

    For Australians unfamiliar with the lore, it’s a simple story. Johnson won the 2019 election by forging a new coalition of traditional Tories and pro-Brexit working-class voters antipathetic to the then Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Much was written at the time about this electoral realignment; swathes of people had moved away from voting according to their economic interests, and were now more motivated by identity and cultural affinity – a shift that also underwrote Trumpism.

    The red wall concept has surfaced in dispatches in Australia during the opening two weeks of the 2022 election campaign.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/23/the-red-wall-and-what-it-means-for-australias-election-campaign

  14. Confessionssays:

    Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 6:50 am

    I’m assuming they’ve tagged Barnaby as the beast, in which case: so appropriate !

    ………………………………………………………………………….

    I can’t let the ABC take the blame, Confessions – it was me that added that part

  15. What are the red wall seats full of low income Labor voters that the Liberals are going to win? I hope KM doesn’t mean one of two Labor seats she actually names in her article, Parramatta, because there’s a seat that is actually a) quite affluent with very large pockets of very in-Labor friendly demographics and b) has actually been Liberal held for most of its existence until Julie Owens.

  16. Cronus:

    The wisdom from the press gallery is Deves is supposed to be some kind of signal to social conservatives in western Sydney Labor seats. I’m sceptical that will work, because, as often happens with these things, when you overthink them (as the Lib selection panel appears to have done with Deves), it can backfire spectacularly.

    In this case any gains Deves might have with social conservatives is completely undone by her abject unsuitability as a candidate for a major party, undermining the Liberals’ appeal with swinging, sensible voters. She’s the kind of candidate PHON might preselect.

  17. As it’s been mentioned many times before leaking internal polling is generally done for a reason. Lots of ALP hopes are riding on the west with three seats maybe four laying the foundation for an ALP majority. Historically WA is a bit like Queensland and gives the LNP a nice bunch of seats each time but also no where near as many seats as Qld. I’d be happy with one or two over there especially considering Mr Stokes’ is running as dastardly an anti ALP line as the Murdochcracy and mocking Albo mercilessly. Anyway for Lib insiders to be releasing info to ” Riles” it must be for some strategic reason, my guess is that if most in the East think WA is going to sting the LNP badly Mcgowan style that Scomoe is up the shit.

  18. And, let’s say the quiet part out loud. Deves was picked to be the centrepiece of this strategy because she’s hot. The perfect White Angel. And don’t think none of this factors into Scott Morrison’s calculations. It most certainly would have.

  19. C@T

    “ swathes of people had moved away from voting according to their economic interests, and were now more motivated by identity and cultural affinity – a shift that also underwrote Trumpism.”

    It’ll be interesting to see whether this holds up against the supposedly key issues of climate change, FCIC, costs of living and the economy in Australia.

  20. edwardo @ #16 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 7:03 am

    What are the red wall seats full of low income Labor voters that the Liberals are going to win? I hope KM doesn’t mean one of two Labor seats she actually names in her article, Parramatta, because there’s a seat that is actually a) quite affluent with very large pockets of very in-Labor friendly demographics and b) has actually been Liberal held for most of its existence until Julie Owens.

    McMahon, Blaxland, Macquarie, Greenway, Paramatta, Watson, Barton, Macarthur, Shortland, Chifley, Fowler, Werriwa, Gilmore, Paterson and Dobell.

  21. C@T

    “ Deves was picked to be the centrepiece of this strategy because she’s hot.”

    And silly/shallow as that may be it (if it is Morrison’s intent) it makes slightly more sense than any other of their other suggestions.

    Fess
    Yep, I think they either over-thunk it or just screwed up their selection again.

  22. Cronus @ #20 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 7:10 am

    C@T

    “ swathes of people had moved away from voting according to their economic interests, and were now more motivated by identity and cultural affinity – a shift that also underwrote Trumpism.”

    It’ll be interesting to see whether this holds up against the supposedly key issues of climate change, FCIC, costs of living and the economy in Australia.

    Those are issues the Liberals think only appeal to the Inner City NSW Teal seats. And it seems that Scott Morrison couldn’t give as flying fig about losing them and their Moderate MPs, in order to sweep up the cultural conservatives in Labor seats and solidify his hold over HIS party. Just like Trump and Johnson and Orban.

  23. And, let’s say the quiet part out loud. Deves was picked to be the centrepiece of this strategy because she’s hot. The perfect White Angel.

    I can’t help but compare Deves with Abbott’s captain’s pick for Lindsay in 2013. She ended up being a one termer – can’t remember her name.

  24. Confessions @ #24 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 7:17 am

    And, let’s say the quiet part out loud. Deves was picked to be the centrepiece of this strategy because she’s hot. The perfect White Angel.

    I can’t help but compare Deves with Abbott’s captain’s pick for Lindsay in 2013. She ended up being a one termer – can’t remember her name.

    Sarah Palin anyone?

  25. Murf mentions the red wall, where will it come from? Maybe those seats that voted against same sex marriage? But this is not a brexit level issue. The Labour seats in Britain were full of anti Europe flag wavers and immigration was part of the mix. Religious conservatism is a harder one to thread. The simple arithmetic was laid out by Jason Clare ” Australians throw out governments that are incompetent, no plans for the future and fighting amongst themselves this lot tick all the boxes” this was on “Murfs” own news site. No amount of nonsense to do with a bigoted woman in Sydney will change this. Transsexualism or any other of the LBTQIA issues are just not hot button stuff for the non religious majority in fact I’d say we are far more worried about Christian or religious extremism.

  26. Good point, prince planet:

    in fact I’d say we are far more worried about Christian or religious extremism

    I know I am and all I see with the transgression of hard fought for Women’s Rights being swept away by religious conservatives in the USA, Russia and Hungary et al.

  27. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Have fun with this lot!

    Morrison is a failure in fields he claims to have mastered but the jury is still out on Labor, declares Peter Hartcher. He says that when Morrison and Frydenberg claim that Labor “can’t manage money”, they are being shamelessly hypocritical.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-a-failure-in-fields-he-claims-to-have-mastered-jury-still-out-on-labor-20220422-p5afie.html
    George Megalogenis writes that whoever forms the next government will be confronted with a structural deficit that cannot be willed away with incantations about Australia’s world-beating recovery. He predicts that there will have to be a horror budget dropped to confront the structural deficit that we have. He laments that It’s a pity neither side has the confidence to start this conversation before polling day.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/horror-budget-on-the-cards-for-whoever-forms-next-government-20220421-p5af3t.html
    John Hewson writes that Scott Morrison is being economical with the truth and he says the Australian voter deserves better than a demeaning and trivialising gotcha campaign, driven mostly by the agendas and biases of the media and ignoring the principal policy issues that will confront and dominate the next government.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/04/23/scott-morrison-being-economical-with-the-truth/165063600013750
    Paul Kelly writes that the hurdle Scott Morrison faces in this election is a looming structural loss in the Coalition primary vote – the result of an identity crisis on the conservative side of politics that is compounded by government weakness in promoting a plan for the future. A pretty good read.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/when-politics-kills-the-policy-debate/news-story/fedd0413ebf8f4498bbc3f947582c720
    At the end of week two of the campaign we are confronting the prospect of neither major party being able to govern in their own right, which says everything about how underwhelming voters see the choice on offer. For that, Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have only themselves to blame, says Paul Bongiorno.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/04/23/just-so-nasty-and-dirty-and-people-hate-it/165063600013749
    Dennis Atkins reckons spending a week out of the spotlight might not be such a bad thing for Albanese.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/04/22/dennis-atkins-anthony-albanese-covid/?breaking_live_scroll=1
    Laura Tingle describes the election campaign as a game of spot the difference – and without ideas, dog whistles take over.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-23/election-looms-difference-major-parties-policies-ideas-substance/101009390
    Michelle Grattan headlines this contribution with, “PM’s ‘Deve-ious’ tactics produce another failed character test”. She’s not wrong! She says that in his defence of Deves, Morrison is framing the issue in a misleading way on several fronts. It is not a case of critics wanting to “cancel” her. It is a question of whether she is a suitable candidate for the Liberals. She also says Morrison tried to frame Deves’ tweets as “insensitive”. They went way beyond “insensitive” – they were downright offensive. “Blessed” gets a run, too.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-deve-ious-tactics-produce-another-failed-character-test-20220421-p5af8f.html
    Phil Coorey writes that senior shadow ministers will fan out across the country over the next week to cover for Anthony Albanese as Labor scrambles to keep its campaign on track.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/team-albo-steps-up-as-leader-vows-i-ll-be-back-20220422-p5afb9
    Liberal MPs in at-risk “teal” seats are being left with little financial support from the Coalition in the lead-up to the election, at the same time as they are being outspent on advertising by their independent challengers, explain Sarah Martin and Nick Evershed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/23/coalition-scrimps-on-mps-as-climate-200-backed-independents-outspend-them-in-key-seats
    As speculation mounts that Clive Palmer will seek a preference deal w ith the Coalition, his advertising spending in some markets is more than 200 times that of his rivals, writes Rick Morton who looks at Palmer trying to buy the balance of power.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/23/clive-palmer-and-how-buy-the-balance-power/165063600013754
    The son of former Victorian Liberal Premier Ted Baillieu says the party has abandoned its small-l liberal values and that independents offer a vision for the future, not the past. Here’s his op-ed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/my-father-was-liberal-premier-but-i-can-t-support-his-party-20220422-p5afh3.html
    Tony Windsor writes about rorters, rooters and the country’s lost decade and says that Integrity and climate change will be the key issues at this election, with integrity being the key to a flourishing democracy.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/04/23/rorters-rooters-and-the-countrys-lost-decade/165063600013751
    John Lord opines that while Albanese looks to the future, Morrison just talks about the past.
    https://theaimn.com/while-albanese-looks-to-the-future-morrison-just-talks-about-the-past/
    Saul Eslake takes us through the Morrison ‘dirty deal’ on GST revenue sharing that benefits WA.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-morrison-dirty-deal-on-gst-revenue-sharing/
    Michael Koziol reports that voters and Liberal Party members were kept waiting more than 45 minutes to meet controversial candidate Katherine Deves last night as advisers schemed for her to avoid the media waiting at the Forestville RSL. Quite a shambles.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-is-a-joke-farcical-scenes-as-deves-ushered-into-pub-event-20220422-p5afix.html
    Dominic Perrottet has stared down threats by a key independent MP to withdraw support for his government amid an intensifying debate over transgender people in sport, writes Tom Rabe.
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    Alex Greenwich tells us why he delivered an ultimatum to Dominic Perrottet.
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    Michael McGowan explains why some conservatives see Katherine Deves’ candidates as a ‘godsend’.
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    After a week dominated by the anti-trans views of Scott Morrison’s candidate for Warringah, it has emerged his proxies misled moderates about the captain’s pick, writes Karen Middleton who describes the Katherine Deves preselection as ‘another Hawke game’.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/23/katherine-deves-preselection-another-hawke-game/165063600013755
    Trans rights are part of the culture war repertoire overseas, but will Australians become irritated by the fixation on an issue they regard as completely confected, wonders Katherine Murphy who examines the concept of the “red wall”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/23/the-red-wall-and-what-it-means-for-australias-election-campaign
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    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/china-is-coming-to-honiara-and-we-are-singularly-illprepared/news-story/d241283aab23c41c49c6bc8d439dadf5
    After years of drought, fire, flood and expert reports revealing the catastrophic costs of inaction, Australia’s major political parties are falling short on climate policy, argues Mike Foley.
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    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/abc-hurts-its-own-case-for-hosting-leaders-debate/news-story/8e4c3222ad2a9c9369b112e7164ee893
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    https://michaelwest.com.au/labor-edges-closer-to-coalition-on-coal-in-bid-to-woo-hunter-valley-queensland-voters/
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    https://www.smh.com.au/national/experts-brace-for-surge-in-illness-as-covid-meets-influenza-20220419-p5aee5.html
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    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/streaming-companies-want-to-broadcast-afl-as-players-seek-huge-pay-rises-20220419-p5aeip.html
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    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/22/westpac-fined-40m-for-charging-fees-to-the-dead
    Despite a 2016 royal commission, conditions in youth detention in the Northern Territory remain cruelly punitive, exacerbated by even harsher restrictions due to Covid-19, explains Esther Linder.
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    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/hillsong-scathing-internal-letter-denounces-church-response-to-brian-houstons-unhealthy-leadership
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    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/22/biden-desantis-florida-republicans-disney
    Russia’s war on Ukraine should push other countries to shift and diversify their food supply — to make it more secure and, at the same time, improve nutrition worldwide, suggests Professor Jessica Fanzo for Bloomberg.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-s-food-system-is-too-dependent-on-wheat-20220422-p5afa8.html
    Nomination for “Arseholes of the Week” go to Trivago which has copped a fine of $44.7 million for lying about ‘best’ hotel deals. It was a stinking operation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/trivago-fined-44-7-million-for-lying-about-best-hotel-deals-20220422-p5afez.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David


    Alan Moir


    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    David Pope

    Jon Kudelka

    John Shakespeare

    Matt Davidson

    Jim Pavlidis

    Fiona Katauskas

    Simon Letch


    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US










  28. When the prime minister hand-picked anti-transgender activist Katherine Deves as his party’s candidate in the Sydney federal seat of Warringah last month, key moderates were shocked. Not because of her views, but because Scott Morrison’s political lieutenants had persuaded them he was going to appoint someone else.

    The deliberate stalling of key New South Wales Liberal preselections had left Warringah among a dozen seats subject to a federal intervention, allowing Morrison to choose the candidate personally. It had come down to Deves and the moderates’ preferred candidate, disability advocate David Brady.

    The Saturday Paper has been told that in a series of individual conversations, Morrison’s factional proxy, minister Alex Hawke, and his principal private secretary, Yaron Finkelstein, left key moderates with the understanding that Brady would be selected. This influenced their decision to waive the requirement that Deves be a party member for at least six months before running for preselection. Why cause controversy in knocking her back when she wasn’t going to be chosen anyway? But then, she was.

    “We were quite shocked,” one says. “… They never once said they were going to sign off on Katherine Deves.”

    Another Liberal had a similar reaction. “I was just shocked – I think everybody was. It just seemed to be another Hawke game.”

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/23/katherine-deves-preselection-another-hawke-game/165063600013755#mtr

  29. More wise words from Murpharoo:

    Just as there are two ways to look at Morrison’s tactical motives, one offensive and the other defensive, there are also two ways to look at his decision to dig in behind Deves – a candidate who on any measure of decency should be gone.

    The first probability is Morrison chose Deves deliberately to ignite a culture war about trans rights that would smoulder away in the background in an election predominantly about economic management. Deves would speak to cohorts of persuadable voters, but at a micro level.

    But in the way of campaigns, where controlled burns can escalate into bushfires, the Morrison/Deves bespoke culture war has now become a macro issue. It now imperils the government’s chances of hanging on on 21 May because the whole wretched foray reinforces Morrison’s negatives among progressive Liberal supporters – his refusal to adopt a serious climate policy, his implacable obduracy on a federal integrity commission, and his complete botch up of last year’s #MeToo reckoning.

    But the problem is Morrison is now trapped.

    He might want to dump Deves to minimise the risk of a teal wash. But that’s now fraught, because if Morrison cancels the Warringah candidate, he not only loses face, he will galvanise groups like Family Voice or the Australian Christian Lobby or other well-organised conservative religious forces – as well as generating pearl clutching histrionics in the Murdochsphere. If Morrison dumps Deves, cue unhinging among the Fox News mini-mes who proselytise to the Liberal party faithful.

    Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

  30. Sharma said: “The ACL attacks on me are misleading. I support the ability of faith-based schools to retain their faith-based character.

    “But what I do not support is the ability of faith-based schools to discriminate against teachers and students solely on the basis of their sexual orientation or gender identity, as Citipointe Christian College sought to do, for instance.”

    Has anyone challenged Sharma on what he means by “solely on the basis “, sounds like Sharma is in favour of discrimination.

  31. No matter what the lib/nats do to the corrupt media, the media hacks will still support the lib/nats because they fear Federal Integrity commission /ICAC

  32. Thank you BK, we are progressively getting some better analysis across the board now that GaffeGate is forgotten (except on the ABC).

    The Saturday Paper in particular is a welcome antidote to the Murdoch/9Fax cheerleading – and their subscription price is a fraction of the declining old media. This from the Saturday Paper editorial today…


    China’s growing influence in the Pacific is almost entirely the fault of the federal government. They pulled funding out of the region and China filled the breach. As ever, policy was set through a lens of meanness and parochialism.

    Before the 2013 election, Tony Abbott boasted that he would cut foreign aid. “We will build the roads of the 21st century,” he said, “rather than shovel money abroad.”

    In 2015, after his government had taken $11 billion from the foreign aid budget, he said it was important he looked after Australia first. “Because if you don’t have your domestic economic house in order, it’s very difficult to be a good friend and neighbour abroad.”

    Under Abbott, spending on aid dropped to levels unseen since the 1960s. The Australian Agency for International Development – AusAID – was dismantled after 40 years of operation. He rationalised it like this: “The objective of aid is not to create a relationship of permanent dependency. The objective of aid is to ensure that countries are helped to develop to the point where they don’t need aid anymore.”

    Much of this money was redirected to defence. Since the Coalition took office, spending on the military has gone from being five times greater than the foreign aid budget to 10 times greater. The effect of this has been to make Australia less safe.
    ……..

    Morrison is campaigning on his supposed strong line against China. In reality, his government has done more to put the country in the line of war than perhaps any other in this country’s history. Much of this has been for domestic gain, playing the politics of conflict. It has been a game to Morrison and this week is a reminder that he doesn’t understand its rules at all.


    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2022/04/23/pacific-demands/165063600013760

  33. I suspect the Solomon Island fiasco will be what finally takes this election out of reach for Scott Morrison..

    ..a massive national security bungle like this is not easily papered over by blaming the other side, or friendly journos trying to deflect attention..

    ..the Coalition are rightly going to get hammered on May 21st..

  34. I like Katharine Murphy, but I think she’s way off on the ‘red wall’ idea here.

    There’s no doubt Deves is being used to attract the religious nutjob vote. But voters in western Sydney, much like everywhere else in Australia, are more concerned with cost of living pressures than trans kids. And the Libs (apart from the excise cut in the recent budget) aren’t really offering much in the way of solutions.

    It’s up to Labor to offer some practical and genuine answers.

  35. The LNP are, at such an early stage into campaign left with just “two bits of ammo”, to fight the glorious campaign, before being unceremoniously defeated on May 21.
    Headlining from “dead tree” journalists, past their “use by date”, citing internal polling is just not going to make it during this election.
    And of course the evangelical belief, that the now accepted “bullshit man” can conjure another miracle is desperate in the extreme.
    The premature ejaculation by the LNP and posse of scribes in the blue corner, during the first week of the campaign was childishly amusing.
    The loss of the Pacific family and the “not very clever” Deves blunder have left the blue corner looking decidedly “red-faced”.
    The LNP Morrison grubs will cling to Albanese’ unfortunate ailment while debating the correct pronunciation of a the name”Albanese” in a multicultural Australia.
    The LNP and their supporters, denying climate change, denying the need for an ICAC and the performance of their totally inept PM will see them despatched on May 21.
    Everyone remembers the “natural disaster” that occurred during the 2019 election, to result in the election of the now (we’ll proven) failed leadership of Morrison.
    Even the anti Labor brigade on PB have deserted the chances of a miracle in 2022.

  36. It was Murdoch and Stokes who gave us Murdoch’s individual as pm

    Refer the text communications

    Refer the Murdoch payout to Towke

    Hence what we see from Stokes and his 7 media network

    And, given the question of the Editor of “The Age”, “has The Age become right wing?” appearing on their website behind a paywall

    The very fact the question is asked is indicative

    With apologies to Gittens and Maley who are independent

  37. Dennis Atkins thinks it’s nuts…

    Morrison has backed Deves – as has Tony Abbott – while moderate New South Wales Liberal Treasurer Matt Keane is demanding she be disendorsed. It’s a messy internal political fight that seems to be missing a rational point…..

    Welcome to the crazy theory of rolling out a “red wall” strategy in Australia.

    The other factor counting against a successful Australian play of the British “Red Wall” gambit is the presence of compulsory voting.

    The British Conservatives pulled off their bold move because enough disillusioned Labour voters just stayed home, uninspired by the unpalatable Jeremy Corbyn and unable to vote for either the Tories or the strident anti-Europe UKIP (UK Independence) Party.

    Here, a lot of voters who might be unhappy with Labor will have to vote or might choose to end up in the ALP column after giving the Greens a first preference.

    If this anti-trans culture war, vote swap madness is a real thing, someone has way too much time on their hands.

  38. Lars Von Troller says:
    “Good Morning Scott, hope your pacing yourself for the final 4 weeks, we’ll need you at maximum posting intensity for the last fortnight.”

    Back at ya.

  39. I suspect Morrison had the germ of a divisive ‘good idea’ with his advisers trying to replicate culture wars in the UK and the US – and transplanting them here. ‘Good’ insofar as it might cynically solidify the vote of ‘non college graduate white males angry about their lost glorious past’.

    But true to form, the ScoMo Stuffup ™ comes to the rescue.

    What issue does he choose? Immigrants taking our jobs? Some external body setting rules for us? Critical race theory? The lost glory and mateship of the Little Aussie Battler? Suppression of our Freedoms?

    No. He chooses transgender people muscling in on girls and womens sport. Fair Dinkum!

    Maybe he checked with his ‘secret weapon’ Jen before choosing this issue ranked 1 million by people in the Outer suburbs? He certainly didn’t do his homework.


  40. Confessionssays:
    Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 7:03 am
    Cronus:

    The wisdom from the press gallery is Deves is supposed to be some kind of signal to social conservatives in western Sydney Labor seats. I’m sceptical that will work, because, as often happens with these things, when you overthink them (as the Lib selection panel appears to have done with Deves), it can backfire spectacularly.

    In this case any gains Deves might have with social conservatives is completely undone by her abject unsuitability as a candidate for a major party, undermining the Liberals’ appeal with swinging, sensible voters. She’s the kind of candidate PHON might preselect.

    It is nothing new that LNP (Libs, Nats and especially LNP(QLD) ) always, always selected candidates “PHON might preselect”.
    For example, Pauline Hanson, George Christensen, the one whose name should not be mentioned Porter and many others in Senate.
    So they are doing what they always do. Nothing new.

    And ALP won an election only once in last 29 years. Make what ever of it. You sell a product when there is market for it.

  41. And just to add to what ‘non college graduate white males angry about their lost glorious past’ care about in Western Sydney – it is boys and mens sport.

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