Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, and full candidate lists have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission and incorporated into my election guide. There are 1203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1056 in 2019, an average of around eight per seat. The United Australia Party is again contesting every seat, and One Nation, which contested 15 seats in 2016 and 59 in 2019, is now contesting every seat but Kennedy and Higgins. Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates, the Australian Federation Party with 61 and Animal Justice with 48.
Conversely, the impact of the 2016 reforms continue to whittle away at the number of micro-parties running for the Senate: the number of columns on Senate ballot papers is down from 35 to 23 in New South Wales, 31 to 26 in Victoria, 26 to 25 in Queensland, 23 to 22 in Western Australia, 16 to 14 in Tasmania and nine to eight in the Northern Territory, though it’s up from 16 to 22 in South Australia and seven to 11 in the Australian Capital Territory.
Other news:
• With the announcement of nominations, it is confirmed that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the safe Liberal seat of Flinders as an independent at last month’s South Australian state election, will run against Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the corresponding seat of Grey.
• Shortly after the publication of candidate details, the Australian Electoral Commission issued a statement noting that Rodney Culleton, who leads the Senate ticket of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, appeared to be an undischarged bankrupt, contrary to a declaration he signed when he nominated. It has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Culleton was elected as One Nation’s Senator for Western Australia at the 2016 double dissolution, but was found to be ineligible the following February on the grounds that he was awaiting sentencing for a minor criminal conviction at the time of his nomination, which came two months after he was declared bankrupt.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review cites unspecified sources who rate that the strongest possibilities for teal independents are Wentworth, North Sydney and, “to a slightly lesser extent”, Goldstein. A Liberal source is quoted saying these independents would be less at risk of backing a Labor government than Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott proved to be after 2010, having “developed their own network of voters”.
• Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”. Similarly, Labor strategists cited by Tony Wright of the Age/Herald merely “hope” they can win Hasluck.
Victoria @ #1288 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:03 pm
Yep. Something to take your mind off all the terrible things going on in the world around us.
C@tmomma @ #1298 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 7:08 pm
What!!!!
Was she reborn?
nath says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:02 pm
3. Ms Liu (or the Liberal Party?) had to return $300,000 because the donors were considered (presumably by our national security agencies) to be a national security risk.
__________________
Was it delivered in an Aldi plastic bag like NSW Labor’s 100k?
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It’s Melbourne Nath. At minimum I imagine Myers or DJs?
It does appear there is a NewsPoll (not sure if tonight or tomorrow). Kroger on Sky suggesting ‘a narrowing’
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:06 pm
So, the Liberals are saying that Labor is too cosy with China, but they are also calling Labor racist for claiming that Liu is too cosy with China?
Methinks the argument is a little too nuanced 🙂
I do feel like Labor could be possibly going harder over the Solomon Islands – it’s not just a *normal* Morrison screwup, it’s a monumental failure that could and should completely neutralise any national security advantage the LNP has. You can’t tell me Labor couldn’t find a bunch of normally conservative foreign policy hardheads who could explain in no uncertain terms how badly the LNP have stuffed it there in a way that would’ve been completely incomprehensible even for someone like Julie Bishop.
Oh the offended right wingerss
Oh the irony
C@tmomma: It’s a familiar script for these people. Say outrageous things, get a torrent of obviously legitimate criticism, then play victim and spout nonsense about how you’ve totally been horribly threatened, of which no actual evidence will ever be put forth. Could’ve predicted it the day this first blew up.
When Scomo was asked by the press”Is anything in the Gladys Lui ad not factually correct” he flipped it immediately to an attack on Chalmers without going anywhere near the question then said it was a “racist” attack ad. LMAO.
A “narrowing” means that it has to be 51-49 or 52-48. Which is what I predicted. How smart I am!
sprocket_says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:11 pm
It does appear there is a NewsPoll (not sure if tonight or tomorrow). Kroger on Sky suggesting ‘a narrowing’
Usually you can take what Kroger says and believe the opposite especially when he is forecasting anything. He is full of chite most of the time.
Was he merely forcasting or did his statement imply that he’d seen the poll?
Freya Stark,
with a 3% MOE, and likely news headline grabbing roudning, it’s more likely to be something like 52.9 to the ALP, reported as 52%.
Of course, all of this is because of Albo’s stumble with the cash rate and unemployment rate.
Nah, a narrowing of Albanese’s gap as preferred prime minister.
Coz that’s the most important indicator.
From my understanding, If Liu was born in Hong Kong in 1964 she would entitled to a BNO (British National Overseas) Passport assuming she had not renounced her previous allegiance. Of course that would also make her ineligible to sit in the Federal Parliament.
Freya Starksays:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:19 pm
A “narrowing” means that it has to be 51-49 or 52-48. Which is what I predicted. How smart I am!
LMAO. Last time Krogers “narrowing” was a narrowing of both Labor and Libs PV by a point and other stuff like preferred PM or satisfaction with leader rates. The 2PP STAYED at 53-47 Freya. Don’t get too excited about how clever you are just yet dear.
I think Labor targeting Gladys Lui personally was a mistake. Might galvanize support for her in the Chinese community.
Frydo’s wrong – Australia’s had at least one Chinese-born Federal MP before Liu (who is a HKer anyway, so doesn’t really count).
Dio Wang (born in Nanjing) was elected for Palmer’s first incarnation back in 2010.
I’m not going to comment on whether or not the attack ad overall is accurate or not – but I can give the anecdote that a friend of mine (who died recently) who worked in counter-terror once described her as “a disaster waiting to happen”. He didn’t give any details, but it gels with the allegations that the federal security organs were investigating her mainland links, whether she was aware of it, or just getting played.
It’s certainly true that there is an enormous amount of misinformation floating around Chinese social media (WeChat etc) in Australia, connected with Lib staffers in Melbourne and probably elsewhere.
@ Nath what’s Krogs saying about this poll? Just between us cobber
nath @ #1312 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:25 pm
So, are the Coalition worried about the threat China poses, or not!?! Or, they are content to look the other way if it’s one of their own?
And as I’ve said before – the Chinese voters in Melbourne aren’t necessarily a monolithic bloc. The Mainlanders are the majority now, and they don’t automatically see Liu (a conservative Christian from HK, whose Mandarin is a little shaky) as one of them.
Liu would probably get more sympathy from the SE Asian Chinese crowd, who are generally older and more conservative.
Rebecca @ #1305 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:15 pm
Me too.
Like we’re supposed to feel sorry for the beautiful horrible Transphobe woman!?! Give me a break!
Griff @ #1302 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:12 pm
Coalition pretzel logic.
I think Joshie said first Chinese born member of the HoR
“ The Liberals shouldn’t look to Dutton as the next leader, he would be a disaster. There is nothing appealing about him at all.”
I give you Tony Abbott.
Yeah I will say though despite Peter Dutton being a head kicker like Tony Abbott. I’m not sure he has the same ability as Abbott to cut through with a simple narrative (“A great big tax” etc). Abbott in terms of destroying something there is no one better in the game. He destroyed Rudd’s Prime Ministership, Gillard Prime Ministership, his own Prime Ministership, Turnbull’s Prime Ministership, and then threw away his own safe Liberal seat.
Abbott has left nothing but wreckage in his way and in terms of policy has set this country back 20 years (NBN, Climate Change etc). This country is far worse for his presence in Australian parliament.
The smart play with that add, is all the people who care about BOATS! probably also care about Chinese warships and submarines off the Solomons Islands. The Lui add plays those themes well, as it paints the government already being invaded or compromised somehow.
Well from the look of the front page of the Australian, they are freaking out about China.
Expect a week of this shit, especially with ANZAC day tomorrow.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:27 pm
nath @ #1312 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:25 pm
I think Labor targeting Gladys Lui personally was a mistake. Might galvanize support for her in the Chinese community.
So, are the Coalition worried about the threat China poses, or not!?! Or, they are content to look the other way if it’s one of their own?
___________
Oh I’m not worried about that sort of Wolverine stuff.
It’s a high risk tactic that ad. Chisholm is likely to be one of the seats that falls to a general swing, or one that falls based on dissatisfaction with the Morrison government.
There is a chance now that locals might get defensive about their member.
You would think that anyone concerned about national security issues and Gladys would have voted against her last time.
In Lingiari, I expect Labor will be endeavouring to replicate their extraordinary success in the mobile booths at the Daly byelection.
On the night I’d guess the early numbers to substantially favour the CLP as the Palmerston, Katherine and Alice votes will come in first. Snowdon is from Alice, so the swings to CLP may be strongest there.
@south -also means no Newspoll and I don’t see how Kroger can be talking about a “narrowing” for a poll a) shouldn’t be finalised yet b) he shouldn’t have seen.
Mr Bowe have I been naughty? Or have the Tories cottoned on to me?
If I have committed apostasy accept my apologies forthwith.
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Upnorth – isn’t there an automod that triggers on certain words or phrases?
Did you Godwin yourself by any chance?
nath @ #1327 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:38 pm
What makes you think Labor is narrowcasting just to Lui’s electorate. The issue has broader “appeal”.
It looks like Ferguson will be replacing Sales, as Kelly has bigger fish to fry and Kavelas has got the morning gig.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZSa4B37sZs&t=1379s
Labor not taking the Coalition’s attitood lying down:
Julian Hill MP
@JulianHillMP
·
1h
Replying to
@9NewsAUS
and
@CUhlmann
That’s over the top mate. The Liberals can’t rebut the facts because they’re true. Calling it “racist” to hold Gladys Liu to account is silly & desperate. She is also a truly awful local MP. A large part of Chisholm came from my electorate & local community groups can’t stand her.
Being Anzac day tomorrow, and the Solomon Islands being in focus, can I recommend a mega sad film to everyone. The Thin Red Line. Whilst American, it really captures the waste that is war.
Spare a prayer tomorrow for the people of Ukraine, we are lucky to be a world away from it.
It’s Time says:
What makes you think Labor is narrowcasting just to Lui’s electorate. The issue has broader “appeal”.
________
I did think that. Because sending it ‘broader’ would be even more stupid.
nath @ #1323 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:38 pm
Is her electorate, many of whom have emigrated to Australia to get away from the CCP, going to throw their support behind someone who is a cuckoo in their nest? I’m not so sure.
Mavis,
I really hope Ferguson can restore the 7:30 brand.
@It’s Time: The Liu ads were bought for social media targeting geographical areas around her seat. While Labor might guess that the Coalition would amplify them nationwide, if you want them seen nationwide without the Coalition spin attached you’d probably actually pay for the ad to run more broadly.
Reported by people who watch PML that he thinks Newspoll is due Tuesday. Would be very on brand for Kroger to predict the result of a poll that isn’t completed.
Arky says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:45 pm
Upnorth – isn’t there an automod that triggers on certain words or phrases?
Did you Godwin yourself by any chance?
==============
Well I did post some Chinese Characters which read in Pinyin
Zhong Hua Ren Min Gong He Guo loves SfM
Which basically says the People’s Republic of China loves SfM
Maybe PB doesn’t like Chinese too?
nath @ #1331 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 9:48 pm
So, you think it’s ‘stupid’ for Labor to take the Coalition up on their rhetoric about the threat the Chinese pose by highlighting it? Simply because that person, whom the intelligence agencies have expressed suspicions about, is already a Liberal MP? An ‘interesting’ construction, to say the least.
@Arky, the ads were blasted around the country by a very gullible media at no extra cost and @nath if you think that a factual broadcast about the MP for Chisholm plays badly in the rest of the country you need to spend more time in Australia…
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 9:49 pm
Is her electorate, many of whom have emigrated to Australia to get away from the CCP, going to throw their support behind someone who is a cuckoo in their nest? I’m not so sure.
_________
If she is a ‘cuckoo’ then it is a really deep cover situation since she has spoken up for HK democracy and supported things the CCP are against. I’m certain that she would have lost pre-selection if there was anything ASIO was certain about.
Amazed that the lead article on Murdoch’s top rating http://www.news.com.au is a positive one for Albo..
https://www.news.com.au/
So an attack ad now is racist if the target has foreign heritage? So all the attack ads on Albanese are clearly racist then.
I think the Libs need to decide whether Labor are too pro-China or too anti-China.
nath ,
ASIO missed Australia’s biggest terrorist the Christchurch shooter because they were too distracted looking at angry brown youthsand not disaffected white supremacists. Don’t fall into the trap to think that an organization that is FAT with government money has it’s eye on the prize. They are affraid of their masters and wouldn’t dare interact with a preselection.
Liu
The matters now raised have been publicly raised in the past – and, as I understand, for very good reason across the full spectrum of those matters raised including associations
Fundraisers are revered in the Liberal Party
You gain pre selections on your ability to raise funds
And here we are again today, with these matters again being raised
Very appropriately
The 2019 election contest in that seat was what it was – Labor’s candidate from local politics also of Chinese extraction
The ill will generated thru that campaign, with many of Chinese extraction duped as they were, continues
Atkinson of the Upper House in the Victorian Parliament is also very active among the Chinese business community – and well regarded
We will see how this plays out in a few weeks time