Federal election minus 29 days

Anthony Albanese in sick bay, ballot paper draws ready to go, and some public opinion data points of perhaps dubious provenance.

Facing seven days in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19, Anthony Albanese will “postpone a punishing schedule of marginal seat visits in the next week and instead do media appearances from home”, according to the ABC. That headline-grabber aside, there is also the following to report:

• The West Australian has a poll from Painted Dog Research showing Anthony Albanese leading Scott Morrison 54-46 as best leader to handle the economy, out of a sample of 1241 Western Australian respondents polled on Wednesday. Personal ratings were even better for Albanese in relative terms, his 38% approval and disapproval and 38% disapproval comparing with Morrison’s 26% and 55%. Asked “which is your least desired outcome from the election”, 39% went for a Coalition majority, 22% for a Labor majority and 39% for a hung parliament. It should be noted that this outfit’s accuracy has never been properly tested since it has never conducted voting intention polling, and its numbers are quite a lot difference from those of the last Newspoll breakdown, which gave both leaders a net rating of minus five in the state.

• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Niki Savva wrote yesterday that Liberal insiders weren’t raising their hopes far beyond a hung parliament, and believed themselves to be “in trouble in Bennelong, Reid, North Sydney and Wentworth in NSW, Chisholm and Goldstein in Victoria, Boothby in South Australia and a slew of seats in Western Australia including Curtin”. In the inner urban seats where the party faces an independent insurgency, Morrison’s net negatives were at “a horrendous minus 30” as the campaign began. Labor strategists acknowledged the possibility of a hung parliament, but believed the election was still “there for the taking”, depending on the quality of Anthony Albanese’s performance.

• The Greens are claiming they are poised to win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor’s Terri Butler, based on 25,000 responses they have received through their door-knocking campaign. Labor may well be right when they dismiss this is a “Greens party hype campaign”, but the Greens claim the method provided an accurate measure ahead of their successes in the state seats of South Brisbane and Maiwar and the Brisbane council ward of The Gabba.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised enrolment statistics following the closure of the roll on Monday. Another milestone on the road to the election is reached with the ballot paper draws at noon today in each division, hopefully to be followed in the afternoon by the full publication of candidates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

858 comments on “Federal election minus 29 days”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. “ Bree is back! I think its Alexander Downer.”

    Something just clicked for me: “Bree” is young Alexander’s grindr handle when he is in fishnet stockings …

  2. Does Don Walker still live in Ayr or Home Hill?

    Bill Bryson: “I come from Des Moines. Somebody had to.”

    (Ayr’s plantation history is pretty horrific. Knew about the appalling early cane history wrt islanders, but not those details.)

  3. “ Probably a good thing you didn’t enter politics or the military imho.”

    Quite. For the best, I agree.

  4. Warrigal says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 8:26 pm

    Shh, Upnorth, they’ll all move south of the Silver Link.

    I’d forgotten about the awful water.
    ============================
    Warrigal let’s sell the “Silver Link” to a few Mexicans. Top deal it is. You and I can split it hey.

  5. My brother said to me the other day: Do you realize that Steve Irwin and Shane Warne are dead and that Rupert Murdoch and Clive Palmer are still alive?

    I did realize that but it is still amazing.

  6. What an insolent attitude. Scott Morrison doesn’t think that, once elected, a politician should lose their job as a result of corruption:

    Transparency experts have criticised as “absolute rubbish” Scott Morrison’s claims that the resignations of New South Wales Liberal premiers Nick Greiner and Barry O’Farrell show the Independent Commission Against Corruption is a “kangaroo court”.

    On the defensive after effectively ditching his commitment to create a federal anti-corruption body, Morrison complained on Friday that the NSW Icac had resulted in politicians quitting “too many times”.

    Morrison is a longstanding critic of Icac’s investigation into the former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian’s secret relationship with MP Daryl Maguire and her alleged failure to declare a conflict while involved in grants for his electorate of Wagga Wagga. Berejiklian has denied any wrongdoing and Icac is yet to hand down its findings.

    On Friday Morrison said the Coalition’s proposed commonwealth integrity commission “isn’t a process of trying people … in the media that we’ve seen through the Icac process”.

    “It doesn’t get into salacious public hearings about who’s people’s boyfriends are and runs people out of jobs, runs people out of jobs before the commission has even finalised their review,” he told Sky News.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/22/scott-morrisons-icac-claims-are-absolute-rubbish-say-transparency-experts

  7. Upnorth:

    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 7:57 pm

    [‘One of my best mates lives up at Lower Beechmont on the Lamington Plateau. Very nice spot indeed.’]

    We are almost neighbors. At this time access to Beechmont is denied due to slippage. I’m not good with alternative routes; in fact,
    I’m hopeless. Pepsy.

  8. Son of Ted Ballieu, is volunteering for kooyong indie candidate.
    His father wrote that embarrassing piece in the Age
    ———

    Kos Samaras

    The Liberals have lost their next generation by refusing to move into the 21st century.

    2022 is not 1972. The ballot box will reveal this stark reality next month.

    https://t.co/oeRnpcxCHo

  9. GG

    I reckon Taylormade is too busy helping 3aw and the fiberals rate victoria’s worst road which happened to be in Ukraine.
    You know it makes sense!


  10. Bushfire Billsays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 6:33 pm
    Who is this idiot compering The Drum persisting with pushing the idea that we’d never elect a wog called “Albanese” as PM?

    It’s a fair kind of “fun” question, but TEN EFFING MINUTES on it?

    Get him off!

    The thought of the person compering The Drum crossed my mind much much earlier than today. Isn’t Peter Mali the first ‘Wog’ to be elected in leadership position anywhere in Australia?

  11. Victoria: I’m no Liberal voter but I must say I like that from Ted Baillieu… Stark reality!

    2022 feels more like 2004.

  12. That is probably true about the next generation of leaders is lost to the Liberal party. The younger MPs are generally not exactly high in talent and are mostly religious nuts or live on the verge of the looney fringe.

  13. nath says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 8:41 pm

    My brother said to me the other day: Do you realize that Steve Irwin and Shane Warne are dead and that Rupert Murdoch and Clive Palmer are still alive?

    I did realize that but it is still amazing.
    =========================
    God works in mysterious ways Nath just ask our (current) PM or for Yabba only the good die young.
    ========================
    @ Mavis – that road is very bad. From memory an old logging road that was blasted during construction. It cracked most of the rocks behind and heavy rains close it at the drop of a hat. Good luck with alternative routes.

  14. IMO The reserve bank needs to raise interest rates before the election, The LNP need to pay the political price for their wreck less spending/debt before we go to the polls.
    Just like they did with Howard in 2007 heheheheh

  15. I actually don’t think Katherine Dewes will help the Libs’ chances in Corangamite or Dunkley, because Victorians are generally less conservative than regional people from other states. But for the cost of sacrificing herself, Macquarie, Gilmore, Blair and Lilley may flip to Liberal.

  16. “It is clear now that there is no mood to change the government in Australia, ”

    To the Greater Glory of the Fembots!! 🙂

  17. Freya Stark says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:00 pm

    I actually don’t think Katherine Dewes will help the Libs’ chances in Corangamite or Dunkley, because Victorians are generally less conservative than regional people from other states. But for the cost of sacrificing herself, Macquarie, Gilmore, Blair and Lilley may flip to Liberal.
    =====================
    Freya when you come to Bobawobba, Warrigal and I will sell you the “Silver Link”. No need to go to Ayr.

  18. Mr Smith said he had no interaction with Ms Deves but was angry about being barred from the event when he was a member of the RSL club.

    “I’ve never done anything like that in my life,’’ he said.

    “I am 66. It’s the first time I’ve actually been thrown out of any venue that serves alcohol in my life.

    “My son works in mental health. He’s 29. He works with kids 12 to 25 and he said ‘this just caused a s***storm for us’.

    “As far as I am concerned she’s now got a new name. She’s not Katherine Deves, she’s the wicked witch of Warringah. You can quote me on that.

    “It’s upsetting everyone. And to compare them with the f**king Nazis for Christ’s sakes. She’s nuts. She is a disgrace.”

    The event comes after a significant backlash against Ms Deves — over comments she made on her social media accounts.

    About sums her up

  19. Mrmoney says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:04 pm

    Mr Smith said he had no interaction with Ms Deves but was angry about being barred from the event when he was a member of the RSL club.

    “I’ve never done anything like that in my life,’’ he said.

    “I am 66. It’s the first time I’ve actually been thrown out of any venue that serves alcohol in my life.

    “My son works in mental health. He’s 29. He works with kids 12 to 25 and he said ‘this just caused a s***storm for us’.

    “As far as I am concerned she’s now got a new name. She’s not Katherine Deves, she’s the wicked witch of Warringah. You can quote me on that.
    ====================
    Geez Deves is in deep.

    Really helping to pick up those swinging voters in marginal seats.

    When SfM was doing his Captains’ Pick on that one, I think it was his nose.

  20. Ven @ #713 Friday, April 22nd, 2022 – 8:16 pm


    Bushfire Billsays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 6:33 pm
    Who is this idiot compering The Drum persisting with pushing the idea that we’d never elect a wog called “Albanese” as PM?

    It’s a fair kind of “fun” question, but TEN EFFING MINUTES on it?

    Get him off!

    The thought of the person compering The Drum crossed my mind much much earlier than today. Isn’t Peter Mali the first ‘Wog’ to be elected in leadership position anywhere in Australia?

    Former NSW Premier Morris Iemma is of Italian descent.

  21. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:07 pm

    And all the nominations in ballot paper order are now up

    https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm
    ===========================
    Checked Upnorth and got this. Has Scotty called the election off because it got too hard. Poor didums.

    “Candidate data unavailable

    An error has occured and candidates cannot be displayed. Please check back at a later time.”

  22. Re the theory of Deves helping LNP with voters in seats such as those in western Sydney, for example, I can’t grasp how the purported message is supposed to get across to them.

    So someone living in Auburn or Villawood or wherever will apparently say to the significant other, while doing the dishes: “There’s this blonde woman running for Scott Morrison in one of the posh inner city seats, the one Tony Abbott used to have, and she’s very keen on girls playing sport with girls, and not with blokes wanting to be girls, and it’s causing quite a kerfuffle. That’s it! I’m voting LNP out here thanks to her brave efforts.”

    Is that the theory?

  23. @Guy – correct. The play now is a desperate one, not really tactical – trying to make the best of a fuck up. It shows how little our resident performance artists understands ANY of those seats.

    But again – they’re only here to amuse themselves and pat themselves on the back for… something but certainly nothing to be particular proud or impressed with themselves over but apparently this is defined as an achievement. Takes all sorts.

  24. @Ven

    WTF, did you seriously ask if Malinauskas is the first “wog” elected state premier?

    Without even getting to people with names like Palaszczuk or Berejiklian, if your definition of “wog” only includes people from the Mediterranean, Victoria had Steve Bracks, who is Lebanese. Bracks is an anglicised version, as was Joe Hockey’s surname (in his case it was originally Armenian, same as Berejiklian).

  25. yeah vote liberal

    ““I’ve never done anything like that in my life,’’ he said.

    “I am 66. It’s the first time I’ve actually been thrown out of any venue that serves alcohol in my life.

    “My son works in mental health. He’s 29. He works with kids 12 to 25 and he said ‘this just caused a s***storm for us’.

    “As far as I am concerned she’s now got a new name. She’s not Katherine Deves, she’s the wicked witch of Warringah. You can quote me on that.”

  26. @alias

    It’s the same theory as the Republicans in the US. It’s not specifically about transwomen in sport, or homophobia in general, or any other single front in the culture war.

    It’s simply about suckering the low-information voters by telling them “we’re standing up for our right to say whatever we think”.

    Works there, long term may end up working here.

    They’re attempting to seed the soil for Trumpistan, antipodean version.

  27. So the headline at “The Age” confirms that the son of a former Liberal premier is running the campaign of the Independent challenging Frydenberg

    And confirms what I have acquainted on these sites over time

    Frydenberg is running scared

    And the comment re the demise of the “small l” Liberal is in focus – as it should be

    Noting Chaney is seeking a seat as an Independent

    Where are the Chaney’s, the McPhee’s, the Georgiou’s et al?

    They have been drummed out of the Party

  28. And yes, it is absurdly silly to suggest the name ‘Albanese’ is a hindrance to electability in 2022. It’s not 1950. If a Palaszczuk, Berejiklian or a Malinauskas can lead a party to electoral victory, then an Albanese can too.

  29. @alias exactly.

    In 15 years’ time Australia will be a Trumpist one-party state. This is Labor’s one chance in a generation and they already blew it.

  30. Scott Morrison has already played this card when he said in defence of Deves ‘people are sick of walking on eggshells’. This is the sort of messaging that will resonate with some. Whether they are swinging voters in the seats that count is yet to be determined.

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