Federal election minus 29 days

Anthony Albanese in sick bay, ballot paper draws ready to go, and some public opinion data points of perhaps dubious provenance.

Facing seven days in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19, Anthony Albanese will “postpone a punishing schedule of marginal seat visits in the next week and instead do media appearances from home”, according to the ABC. That headline-grabber aside, there is also the following to report:

• The West Australian has a poll from Painted Dog Research showing Anthony Albanese leading Scott Morrison 54-46 as best leader to handle the economy, out of a sample of 1241 Western Australian respondents polled on Wednesday. Personal ratings were even better for Albanese in relative terms, his 38% approval and disapproval and 38% disapproval comparing with Morrison’s 26% and 55%. Asked “which is your least desired outcome from the election”, 39% went for a Coalition majority, 22% for a Labor majority and 39% for a hung parliament. It should be noted that this outfit’s accuracy has never been properly tested since it has never conducted voting intention polling, and its numbers are quite a lot difference from those of the last Newspoll breakdown, which gave both leaders a net rating of minus five in the state.

• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Niki Savva wrote yesterday that Liberal insiders weren’t raising their hopes far beyond a hung parliament, and believed themselves to be “in trouble in Bennelong, Reid, North Sydney and Wentworth in NSW, Chisholm and Goldstein in Victoria, Boothby in South Australia and a slew of seats in Western Australia including Curtin”. In the inner urban seats where the party faces an independent insurgency, Morrison’s net negatives were at “a horrendous minus 30” as the campaign began. Labor strategists acknowledged the possibility of a hung parliament, but believed the election was still “there for the taking”, depending on the quality of Anthony Albanese’s performance.

• The Greens are claiming they are poised to win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor’s Terri Butler, based on 25,000 responses they have received through their door-knocking campaign. Labor may well be right when they dismiss this is a “Greens party hype campaign”, but the Greens claim the method provided an accurate measure ahead of their successes in the state seats of South Brisbane and Maiwar and the Brisbane council ward of The Gabba.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised enrolment statistics following the closure of the roll on Monday. Another milestone on the road to the election is reached with the ballot paper draws at noon today in each division, hopefully to be followed in the afternoon by the full publication of candidates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

858 comments on “Federal election minus 29 days”

Comments Page 16 of 18
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  1. Upnorth:

    Warrigal let’s sell the “Silver Link” to a few Mexicans. Top deal it is. You and I can split it hey.

    Sounds like exactly the kind of deal that needs me involved, if you know what I mean!

  2. “Yep. The carnage is only going to escalate.”

    Here is hoping for that.

    Though no one could really be like Donald Trump, how fuck awful is Scotty from Marketing, this is our right wing charlatan moment, this is our Trump moment…

    Time to stop their carnage

  3. Wat Tyler says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:25 pm

    And yes, it is absurdly silly to suggest the name ‘Albanese’ is a hindrance to electability in 2022. It’s not 1950. If a Palaszczuk, Berejiklian or a Malinauskas can lead a party to electoral victory, then an Albanese can too.
    =======================================
    Try saying Bjelke-Petersen with a mouth full of Malteesers.

  4. Exactly Guykb – it resonates with the anti-politically correct brigade (who ironically are the ones who are most offended easily) ie.

    I have the right to display my ignorance.

    As happened with Trump – do not call them deplorable because it becomes a badge of honor.

    Let me have a crack at all of those who are different it is my right, these are the votes that Morrison is after. He is Australia’s Trump

  5. @Scout “Let me have a crack at all of those who are different it is my right”

    Yes and don’t dare have a crack at me. That would be cAncEl CulTuRe.

  6. Morrison is basing his campaign on what Donald Trump told him to do, bet he even suggested a marketing idea or two to Trump too. Not sure if they actually heard what each other said as they were most probably listening to themselves…. When one of them asked how good the other admitted SAD

  7. Guykb,
    A lot of people are looking at that debate, and it’ just doesn’t matter to them. Like they have no opinion.
    Imagine if your a chippy or a builder and you’re being squeezed by shortages of basic supplies and this is what the election is about. And for the people of Warringa, it’s going to be like Clarke, Zali will be the queen of that electorate until she wants to leave.

    Scomo is not smart. Deve’s was a bad pick. I have been thinking that this election will either splinter scomo from the libs by having him loose that badly, OR the libs will splinter from themselves in a big way and the uber-right will take the lib brand. Expect more Teals in the future.

    The ALP may just be the beneficiary of a very dirty public factional fight soon

  8. One of WA Premier Mark McGowan’s children has been hospitalised in a ‘serious condition’ due to COVID-19 (per @westaustralian ) | #6NewsAU


  9. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 8:41 pm
    What an insolent attitude. Scott Morrison doesn’t think that, once elected, a politician should lose their job as a result of corruption:

    Lack of Morals and ethics.

  10. Scout I actually think the libs are headed for a major schism. They think they are a ‘broad church’ but in fact are a loose amalgam of competing interests that are being held together by silk threads only because they are in power. If Labor can have a stable first term I think we can expect some major blood letting on the right that could last years.

  11. E. G. Theodore says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:28 pm

    Upnorth:

    Warrigal let’s sell the “Silver Link” to a few Mexicans. Top deal it is. You and I can split it hey.

    Sounds like exactly the kind of deal that needs me involved, if you know what I mean!
    ==================

    Wink Wink – I do “Red” Ted. In fact in 1925 E.G. Theodore, after resigning as Queenslands’ Premier, unexpectedly lost the seat of Herbert in the 1925 Federal Election. In those days the Burdekin, where the “Silver Link” is located, was in Herbert.

    Ted of course won the seat of Dalley in Sydney via a by-election in 1927. He went on to serve as Scullins’ Treasurer and Deputy but lost to a Lang Labor candidate in 1931. He made a fortune in publishing and with Frank Packer founded “Australian Consolidated Press” which published the Daily Telegraph and Womens Weekly. He would be turning in his grave to see what a Tory rag the “Daily Telegraph” has become.

    Ted got the name “Red” because –

    “Workers benefited from the introduction of a compulsory unemployment scheme, changes in the Safety and Accommodation Acts, and the Profiteering Prevention Act. Improvements in housing were also secured through amendments to the Savings Bank Act, the Workers’ Homes Act, and the Fair Rents Act. Agriculture also received much attention through measures like the Agricultural Education Act, the Irrigation Act, the Main Roads Act, and the establishment of an Agricultural Bank, a cold store, a state cannery, a Cheese Pool, and a wheat board. Orderly marketing and controls on price fluctuations were also carried out to develop agriculture, while the Theodore Government also involved itself in the marketing of Queensland fruit produce”

    He also oversaw the abolition of Queenslands’ Upper House whose members were lifetime appointments which had been stacked by the Tories. The Tories threw corruption allegations at him for years but nothing ever stuck.

    Ted is one of my Political heros.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Theodore

  12. Re the Deves theory of capturing socially conservative voters: The various responses are interesting.

    Still, I find it very hard to begin to equate the carry-on in Warringah with Trump coming down the escalator and saying: “Mexicans are rapists, we’ve got to build a wall.” Or words to that effect. This local effort seems rather bumbling and half-baked by comparison, which is not to diminish the pain it is causing.

  13. I see Sky News, the Australian and the Daily Mail all praising Jason Clare today. Gosh, is it a revelation to the right wing media that Clare is a polished performer?

  14. @Freya Stark.

    I understand what you are getting at possibly because I live in one of the seats you speak of where the LNP have been slowly chipping away at the Labor majority for twenty years now, with 2007 the only time they lost ground.

    Most on here are like British football supporters on the terraces, too busy chanting to actually watch the game.Politics is mostly about tribal loyalties and social class is still a factor.

    What Morrisson wants is Albanese to come out and make a big song and dance about the woman in Warringah and with it try and answer the question who is Albanese?

    The sub text he is pushing for is Albanese is not really part of your tribe he is an inner city woke elitist (which is just code for upper middle class) that is his tribe.It’s not about religion the LNP have that vote already, it’s about exploiting class prejudices.

  15. To all those saying stuff about Albanese name and electability. Just search that name on Instagram. Albo is surrounded by a lot of young women.


  16. Wat Tylersays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 9:10 pm
    Ven @ #713 Friday, April 22nd, 2022 – 8:16 pm


    Bushfire Billsays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 6:33 pm
    Who is this idiot compering The Drum persisting with pushing the idea that we’d never elect a wog called “Albanese” as PM?

    It’s a fair kind of “fun” question, but TEN EFFING MINUTES on it?

    Get him off!

    The thought of the person compering The Drum crossed my mind much much earlier than today. Isn’t Peter Mali the first ‘Wog’ to be elected in leadership position anywhere in Australia?

    Former NSW Premier Morris Iemma is of Italian descent.

    Yeah I forgot about that but there is a difference. He was Premier when he went to polls. And Peter Debnam was his opponent. To paraphrase Kerry Packer, you get only one Peter Debnam. 🙂

  17. I was mostly away from the news today. Does anyone know if the ABC itself is comfortable with the way it’s changed? We don’t often hear much from inside the beast. I wonder what staff morale is like.

  18. Ronni Salt has a way with words….

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt

    Chris Yoolman tonight was all but scratching at the door for his beloved Scott’s return. I thought he’d done an excited piddle next to his dinner bowl.

  19. Voodoo Blues says:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 10:08 pm
    @Freya Stark.

    I understand what you are getting at possibly because I live in one of the seats you speak of where the LNP have been slowly chipping away at the Labor majority for twenty years now, with 2007 the only time they lost ground.
    ————————-
    What is your seat cobber?

  20. Apparently a Cis man here, formerly known as a man. Was I consulted on this new designation? Were my opinions canvassed? Do I consent to this new Cis identity designation. No, I’m pretty comfortable with man, ta very much.

  21. And yes, it is absurdly silly to suggest the name ‘Albanese’ is a hindrance to electability in 2022. It’s not 1950. If a Palaszczuk, Berejiklian or a Malinauskas can lead a party to electoral victory, then an Albanese can too.

    The segment started out as a lightish-heartedish bit of fluff on how to pronounce “Albanese”. Was it “Alban-ezy”, or “Alban-eeze”? After three or four minutes on this they finally played an old Q&A tape of the man himself giving the correct Italian pronunciation, approximately “Alba-niegh-sa”. He then went on to say, “There are so many theories about how to pronounce it, I just tell people to call me ‘Albo’.”

    Which should have been the end of it, but it was just the start.

    It went on for another 7-10 minutes, with each panelist being asked in turn whether Australia was ready for a PM who didn’t have an Anglo-sounding name. It was bloody stupid. In the end it was almost maniacal, then a little nasty, and finally pathetic, as the Drum guy couldn’t get anyone to express the slightest doubt that the name “Albanese” was no impediment to achieving the highest office in the land.

  22. Cis isn’t a slur and don’t stress, you can still call yourself whatever you feel best reflects you.

    It’s kind of the point.

  23. C@t at 7.06pm re how old am I…

    Late 50s. There may have been a small number of State Selective High Schools in Sydney in the 70s, but none outside.

    I grew up in country NSW.

  24. @Guykb

    I’m actually wondering if Deves is also serving as a sandbagger to appeal to party loyalists and donors, moving forward?

    The laments of her and boss Scott wouldn’t be out of place at your average high-rollers club (Because, hasn’t the world gone mad – it’s why Pauline Hanson has fans).

    Getting serious hired talent vibes, that’s all. Like it’s just a gig.

  25. @snappy Tom – there was Hurston Park ag. That was basically the sticks to us back then. It’s where all the brainy country kids went that didn’t have rich parents

  26. Malcolm Farnsworth @mfarnsworth

    Albanese will lose because he’s in isolation. It’s like that time in 1975 when Malcolm Fraser was so sick they postponed his policy speech and he spent a couple of days in bed, without social media and Zoom. He went down to a crushing defeat too…

  27. @Rossmore

    ‘Cis-‘ is simply a latin preposition, which translates to “on this side of”.

    ‘Trans-‘ is the opposite of ‘cis-‘ in Latin and translates to “on the other side of”.

    Adding ‘cis-‘ more accurately describes a person in a conversation, where the topic is about gender identity. It was never about changing designations.

    ‘Cis-‘ always was, it was never really used before transgender people became a popular topic of discussion.

  28. @Voodoo Blues “What Morrisson wants is Albanese to come out and make a big song and dance about the woman in Warringah and with it try and answer the question who is Albanese?

    The sub text he is pushing for is Albanese is not really part of your tribe he is an inner city woke elitist (which is just code for upper middle class) that is his tribe.It’s not about religion the LNP have that vote already, it’s about exploiting class prejudices.”

    You’re probably right, Albanese’s response to questions on transgender rights a few days ago made it clear he thinks he is walking a tightrope on questions like this. Can’t remember the exact words but he made a generic 1 sentence response along the lines of “I respect supporting the rights of all people/communities”.

    I’m not really sure there are a lot of votes out there where this sort of dogwhistle is actually going to sway many votes that are not already with the LNP. I think even your average socially conservative voter who has reservations about issues like this, might look at Katherine Deves’ comments and think she’s a bit of a kook that doesn’t show any basic decency or respect for people she deems as an “other”.

  29. “Cis” also more accurately (or rather, precisely) defines a person in social media data mining, as it separates off people who wish to actively identify as it and those that actively don’t.

  30. Why isn’t Rossmore entitled to be particular about the label attached to him ? Being so seems to be the way it is ‘these days’.

  31. CLARIFICATION #1 The East Coast burnt to a nightmare crisp, Ecosystem destruction. Community Destruction. What did the corrupt dont care less government do?

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