Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Anthony Albanese draws level on preferred prime minister as Labor maintains its commanding lead on voting intention.

As reported in The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll records no change for either major party on voting intention, with Labor retaining a lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred and 41% to 35% on the primary vote. For the minor parties, the Greens are down a point to 8%, One Nation is steady on 3% and the United Australia Party is down one to 3%, with all others up two to 10%. Anthony Albanese has drawn level with Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister for the first time since Morrison’s post-bushfires nadir in February 2020 at 42-42, after Morrison led 42-40 last time. Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 41% with disapproval steady at 55%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and down one to 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1520.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,117 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 23
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  1. Ven @ #59 Monday, March 14th, 2022 – 8:17 am

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 7:41 am
    Alexandra Smith reveals that the NSW State Emergency Service formally asked for troops to be sent to help deal with floods three times before the federal government responded.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-asked-for-troops-five-days-before-numbers-were-confirmed-via-media-20220313-p5a49p.html

    See that? F.e.d.e.r.a.l. G.o.v.e.r.n.m.e.n.t. Not State government needs to do it in writing and then we’ll do it straight away. And confirmed via media again. No formal courtesies there from the feds. Just more, government by announceables.
    ”

    But according to ABC Breakfast News, ADF approached SES, NSW on 25th February twice, 3 days before Lismore flooding, to provide assistance. But SES rejected that assistance.

    The SES aren’t the ones to have been making the final decision.

  2. I used to be in the SES and I was told that the Minister for Emergency Services could always override any decision made by any individual unit or SES management.

  3. Daniel Bleakley
    @DanielBleakley

    Catastrophic climate disasters, global conflict and Dan Tehan on national radio talking about cruise ship tourism.

    It’s called playing to the base.

  4. Don’t expect to see the PM on the ABC any time soon. This from The Australian Diary column today

    “{In Diary’s first column of 2022 back in January, we revealed that the Prime Minister Scott Morrison was planning an ABC interview blitz in February, supposedly to take in Leigh Sales on 7.30, David Speers on Insiders and Patricia Karvelas’s Radio National breakfast show. “He’ll front up to nearly everything (on the ABC),” a senior government insider told us at the time. “He won’t be shying away from tough interviews. The list of people he won’t do interviews with is extremely small.” The only definite “no-go” zone for an ABC interview, we were told, was a chat with 7.30’s chief political correspondent Laura Tingle. But interviews with Sales, Speers and Karvelas in February were meant to be a reset for Morrison to start 2022, following the bruising commentary over the government’s handling of Covid-19 in 2021. But we’re now in mid-March, and there has still been no sign of an interview with the ABC big three despite, we’re told, repeated requests. So much for his “ABC blitz”. A government insider responded to the ABC late on Sunday: “We’ll get there when we get there.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/ita-buttrose-applauds-grace-tame-and-brittany-higgins/news-story/9660025447924131fc847fb9b04f8b60

    Looks like Scomo is “hiding under the doona” like he told us not to during the Corona Virus second outbreak, at least with the ABC. It’s called accountability.

  5. C@t

    Tehan playing to the base? I’m actually staying in his electorate until tomorrow.
    Sheep grazing country. Lol!

  7. Oscar winning actor William Hurt, star of Kiss of the Spider Woman and Body Heat, has died aged 71.

    Deadline reported an announcement by Hurt’s son Will: “It is with great sadness that the Hurt family mourns the passing of William Hurt, beloved father and Oscar winning actor, on March 13, 2022, one week before his 72nd birthday. He died peacefully, among family, of natural causes.” Variety said that a family friend confirmed the news.

  9. HI just showed me the local forecast page on BOM and noted there was a link to the National Resilience and Recovery Agency. You have to go in deeper to find a link to apply for emergency funding.
    This is a perfect example of ‘hiding’ the process despite promoting the assistance package. Typical SfM smoke and mirrors.

  10. Here is The Australians take on the recent Newspoll —

    The Prime Minister may be running out of runway but he still has time to get the plane off the ground. He has been in this position before and survived.

    In March 2019, Newspoll recorded the Coalition primary vote at 36 per cent. Today, almost precisely the same period before the next election, it is on 35 per cent, well within the margin of error to be comparable.

    Labor was then on 39 per cent and is now on 41 per cent. The combined Labor/Greens vote is at 49 per cent, only one point different from the 48 per cent in March 2019.

    The two-party-preferred vote was then 46-54 in Labor’s favour. It is now 45-55. So the answer to the question of whether the Coalition can win from here is obviously yes.

    But whatever its political strategy is to achieve that might need to quickly become apparent. While Morrison is suffering from a lack of clear air to establish a campaign footing, Albanese continues to get away with it”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/small-target-strategy-working-for-anthony-albanese-but-scott-morrison-can-still-win-from-here/news-story/53a212a47933f83e072cab523c2023d2

    What Benson says about the stats prior to the 2019 well may be true as is Morrison’s struggle to get clear air time to get his election pitch plane off the ground. But there is no sign of Miracle 2.0 and Albanese is doing more than hiding under the doona and waiting for the tooth fairy to come.

    Albo was 16 points down as preferred PM 6 months ago, now he is on a par a preferred PM and Morrison’s performance disapproval rating is now 53%. Benson ignores those figures. He can’t spin his way out of this mess. Morrison on gone.

  11. “The issue with 2019 wasn’t so much a closure over time; but a systematic polling failure, which has been partially dealt with in the meantime. Not sure anyone considers it has been fully addressed?”

    I think / thought there was quite some evidence the undecideds had broken both during the campaign and late to the LNP.

    Anyway whether the errors have been under addressed or over corrected we may never actually know, but election night will give us some hints.

  14. Newstld and other Lib/nats propaganda media units are probably more fearful of an federal anti-corruption like commission ,because they could be forced to split politically from control of the liberal and national partys

  15. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK, concise and sharp as always. Albo ios traveling well, despite the pack of Murdoch “journalists” circling him.

    This story highlights what a dismal failure for taxpayers governments taking back responsibility for toll roads has been. The risk gets taken by taxpayers, and they are then sold off to private investors to cream the profits. Insane.

    “Tom Rabe reports that the NSW government is facing rising costs across its major motorway projects as a report on the state’s finances reveals $1.4 billion of spending that was not in this year’s budget. The M6 project alone has blown out by $400m.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/m6-blows-out-by-400-million-amid-pandemic-pressure-labour-shortages-20220313-p5a467.html

    On the Ukraine War, this story illustrates the insanity in US RW media. Tucker Carlson on Fox News is so pro-Putin that Kremlin sources recommend using him as their “western” information source.
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/exclusive-kremlin-putin-russia-ukraine-war-memo-tucker-carlson-fox/

    WOMAD had quite a crowd yesterday and I especially enjoyed the Balkan Ethno Orchestra (tongue in cheek name) and some great food. I fear we will see covid trend up though. Have a good day all.

  18. Ironic that Benson claims Albo is hiding under the doona doing a mini me when in the same Australian Newspaper today there is an opinion piece written by Albo himself. Here is a snippet

    11:00PM MARCH 13,

    In coming weeks and months, hundreds of thousands of Australians will rebuild their communities in the wake of the summer flood crisis. Local councils, business owners and householders will review the disaster and consider what can be learned as they rebuild their lives and properties.

    Times of adversity always bring out our best. They also give us important lessons about our weaknesses – lessons that should guide future action. In some ways, there are parallels between Australian communities rebuilding from the floods and the entire nation rebuilding from the biggest economic disruption we have faced in decades – the Covid pandemic. Just as councils and governments should consider building regulations and projects to mitigate the effects of future floods, as a nation we must review the lessons of the pandemic as we rebuild our economy.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/in-rebuilding-we-must-also-prepare-for-a-better-future/news-story/6307b61ef79927260048f43bf49f6f04

  19. sandman

    ‘…
    But whatever its political strategy is to achieve that might need to quickly become apparent. While Morrison is suffering from a lack of clear air to establish a campaign footing, Albanese continues to get away with it”
    …’
    ——————————-
    Albanese is the crook?

  21. “ I think / thought there was quite some evidence the undecideds had broken both during the campaign and late to the LNP”

    My understanding is that this had been ruled out.

  22. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 9:22 am
    sandman

    ‘…
    But whatever its political strategy is to achieve that might need to quickly become apparent. While Morrison is suffering from a lack of clear air to establish a campaign footing, Albanese continues to get away with it”
    …’
    ——————————-
    Albanese is the crook?

    Yes, according to Benson at The Australian he is. I think he might have to rethink who has been “getting away with it” for years now. Maybe Albo’s God bought the floods, Covid and bushfires in a conspiracy with the Labor leader to bring SfM down and deny him clear air time to spin his election promises. Who knows what idiotic notions run through these RWNJs heads.

  23. If the public pollsters are wrong in 2022 as they probably were in 2019, then the Libs wouldnt be rumbling for a 1 minute to midnight leadership change……so their internal polling is telling them the same thing is a fair assumption.

  24. Thanks BK

    So many differences between 2019 and 2022 and so many more reasons to believe that this time might actually be different. This poll trend will have Morrison bursting veins in his forehead, he has tried almost everything but still the trend remains constant.

  25. For instance, look in this post under the heading of excuses that Dr Bonham classes as “non-starters”.

    Late swing: the idea here is that those making up their minds on the day swung to the Coalition but made that decision too late to be included in the sample. The problem with this is that prepoll voting was going on more or less throughout the period of these wrong polls, and prepolls have actually showed a greater swing to the Coalition (2 points 2PP) than election-day booth voting (0.8 points) – figures as of Sunday morning. Of course, the prepoll voting mix has changed a lot with the massive increase in prepolling but even so to expect that to make 4 points of difference the other way seems a bit much

  26. Albo obviously is hiding under the doona. It’s possibly a sensible decision, but to deny it is just weird.

    He’s committed to emissions reduction 1.6% below where they will be under the coalition. If you don’t own a house, albo has thrown you under the bus and you will never own a house, at least until your parents die.

  28. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 9:33 am
    Girls, your local petrol station is now a great place to find a rich husband.

    —

    Good on GG. Post of the day. !!

  29. Voice Endeavoursays:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 9:31 am
    Albo obviously is hiding under the doona. It’s possibly a sensible decision, but to deny it is just weird.
    —

    Bollocks. You read like a Greenie or Teal Liberal. Which is it ?

  31. Sprocket @ 8.53 am ‘A lot in this photo’.
    My main impression from the photo of Morrison is the look on his face; it is almost as if he is enjoying the misery and destruction around him. It must be a Pentecostal thing.

  32. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 8:53 am
    A lot in this photo…

    ”

    1. I can’t see his right hand.
    2. His right shoulder appears to be drooping down hinting hand hanging downwards.
    3. She looks glum.
    4. He seems to be in cheerful mood.

  33. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 9:31 am

    Albo obviously is hiding under the doona. It’s possibly a sensible decision, but to deny it is just weird.
    ….’
    ——————————————
    Unlike the Coalition and the Greens, Albanese has commited to fully implement the Statement from the Heart.
    For Bandt’s followers to deny this is just weird.
    For Bandt to commit to building one million houses is just weird.
    For Bandt to commit to halving the ADF in increasingly uncertain times is just weird.
    For Bandt to white ant Labor, thus giving the Morrison a smell at another three years is just weird.
    For Bandt to commit to destroy large parts of regional economies is just weird.

  34. Albanese has identified the media, specifically the Murdoch type, as the enemy and has given them nothing to latch on to and blow up beyond all proportions. They are getting more and more frustrated with this – and it shows.
    As for Morrison, he’s doing a job on himself as is evidenced by the PPM and net satisfaction trends.

  37. 1. I can’t see his right hand.
    2. His right shoulder appears to be drooping down hinting hand hanging downwards.
    3. She looks glum.
    4. He seems to be in cheerful mood.
    _____
    5. He looks like a slob

  39. BK @ #99 Monday, March 14th, 2022 – 9:45 am

    1. I can’t see his right hand.
    2. His right shoulder appears to be drooping down hinting hand hanging downwards.
    3. She looks glum.
    4. He seems to be in cheerful mood.
    _____
    5. Looks like a slob

    6. Bridgey hasn’t got the message that loose fitting pants and jeans are au courant. 😉

  40. ”
    WeWantPaulsays:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 9:11 am
    “The issue with 2019 wasn’t so much a closure over time; but a systematic polling failure, which has been partially dealt with in the meantime. Not sure anyone considers it has been fully addressed?”

    I think / thought there was quite some evidence the undecideds had broken both during the campaign and late to the LNP.

    Anyway whether the errors have been under addressed or over corrected we may never actually know, but election night will give us some hints.
    ”

    Newspoll correctly predicted the 2PP results of QLD &WA State election results after 2019 federal election.

  41. Sandman

    “ What Benson says about the stats prior to the 2019 well may be true as is Morrison’s struggle to get clear air time to get his election pitch plane off the ground. But there is no sign of Miracle 2.0 and Albanese is doing more than hiding under the doona and waiting for the tooth fairy to come.”

    Most of all, what Benson is missing is three years of ongoing unambiguous Morrison failures made public for all Australia to see and judge.

  42. Wouldn’t it be proper and non sexist to say , hey all your local petrol station is a great place to find a rich partner …?

  44. max @ #146 Monday, March 14th, 2022 – 5:21 am

    Newspoll still very encouraging. While I think PPM and netsat are generally dubious measures, the fact that Albo is level pegging on PPM and in a much better position on netsat seem significant (as much as anything because Opposition Leaders usually have a built in disadvantage on those measures).

    It also suggests that the coalition’s current campaign to paint Albo as an unknown quantity aren’t biting and are unlikely to work. The more people are familiar with Albo it seems, the more they like what they see.

    …

    I don’t see it that way.

    Albo is pretty steady on this measure, while the trend for Morrison is downwards.

    This would seem to suggest that people are becoming more negative towards Morrison rather than more positive towards Albo.

  45. Excellent newspoll confirms informed voters have made up their minds.
    Standby for massive bribe attempts at the disengaged low information voter

  46. Others have noted Simon Benson’s ‘cherry picking’ of stats to prove 2019 could happen again.

    I just consulted the Ultimate Authority: Bludgertrack 2019!

    In September 2018, just after the rolling of Turnbull, the Coalition were at their low point of about 45% 2PP (and about 35% PV). Labor’s PV was about 39%.

    The Bludgertrack charts show a relatively consistent narrowing until election eve, when the Coalition was on 51.7% 2PP (and 38.3% PV – compared to Labor’s 36.4% PV).

    What about now? The Coalition had been doing quite well on Bludgertrack in mid-2021. By September, their 2PP was about 52% (PV about 42%). Labor’s PV was a little under 35% – only a small improvement on 2019.

    There was a ‘narrowing’ in Bludgertrack during late 2021. Labor took the 2PP lead in December – the Omicron wave.

    There are at least three statistical differences between 2019 and 2021/22:
    1) At least some pollsters have modified their assumptions re preference distributions in the light of clear failures in 2019
    2) The Coalition saw a movement TOWARDS it of 3.3% (on Bludertrack, not individual polls here or there) from September 2018 to May 2019. There was a swing on – towards Morrison.
    3) Since September 2021, Bludgertrack has seen a swing TOWARDS LABOR of about 7% – DOUBLE THE SIZE of the swing to Morrison three years ago.

    Benson lies.

    Hopefully, the lies of Benson and his media co-conspirators keep Labor focused on the task of earning every vote!

  49. I heard Dan Tehan on RN brekkie this morning and somethign he said pricked my ears about cost of living and fuel prices as well – he said the Budget would address it so people needed to wait a couple of weeks. And my first thought was “Again people have to wait for them to act until it suits them to make a big announcement, when they could do something now.”

    The reality isn’t that simple but it ties in with the perception of the govt now. Jeez they’re in awful, awful strife.

  50. “Excellent newspoll confirms informed voters have made up their minds.
    Standby for massive bribe attempts at the disengaged low information voter”

    The natural vicitm of sfm’s cons.

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