Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Anthony Albanese draws level on preferred prime minister as Labor maintains its commanding lead on voting intention.

As reported in The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll records no change for either major party on voting intention, with Labor retaining a lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred and 41% to 35% on the primary vote. For the minor parties, the Greens are down a point to 8%, One Nation is steady on 3% and the United Australia Party is down one to 3%, with all others up two to 10%. Anthony Albanese has drawn level with Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister for the first time since Morrison’s post-bushfires nadir in February 2020 at 42-42, after Morrison led 42-40 last time. Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 41% with disapproval steady at 55%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and down one to 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1520.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,117 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  5. Fumbles:

    Greens and RWNJ both go back 1, indies/others up. Was really thinking the LNP primary would shift. Greens at 8 again or is this anouther rouge poll for the greens.

    I generally roll my eyes at the constant “Greens are doomed!” predictions, which are usually little more than wishcasting, but this is actually starting to look like a genuine drop in their support in my inexpert opinion.

  10. LNP stuck on 35% PV with 2 months to go to Election Day. Labor still above 40% PV.

    Time to put a fork in this government? It’s done.

  11. This is where the tightrope walking begins for Albanese. He must get to the other side of the election without falling to his political death during the campaign.

  12. The only negative the SmearStralian could come up with was

    “Almost one in seven voters, however, are yet to make up their minds about Mr Albanese” which means that one in seven are yet to make up their mind about SfM if you want to twist it that way. Weird comment that makes no sense.

  13. Asha @ Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 9:44 pm

    The Greens are facing an existential crisis. Ironic.

    But seriously, good to see the environmental vote liberated by independents. I find this very encouraging.

    Rudd led Labor was right (apart from cowardice in triggering a double dissolution). We need both sides of the political spectrum in agreement. Labor, The Greens and a couple of independents did not do it. A common consensus is the only way society can achieve and sustain a common goal that requires sacrifice.

  14. Would love to see where those ‘other’ votes are coming from, the teal phenomena is going to be great to watch. When liberals under threat start removing party symbols, putting up teal corflutes and intimidating the indi candidates in a petty way you know they must be a little concerned.

    A victory would be an ALP Govt
    A great victory would be ALP Govt and no more frydo, sharma, wilson and those other useless safe seated LPN turkeys

    Oh and a uber great victory, all the above and Melbourne goes back to the ALP

  15. C@t

    It’s a long way down from 10 in front with eight weeks to go. The way things are now the govt will need to gift every taxpayer a million bucks to win from here.

    They’re cooked.

  16. 60 minutes is doing a piece on Albo. One review here…

    “What do you miss most about her?” What an appallingly tacky qn for @karlstefanovic to ask @AlboMP about his Mum who passed away in 2002. Then he asks “Are you in love, Albo?” about his new girlfriend. Grubby tabloid TV. #auspol #60Mins #ThisIsNotJournalism

  18. Will we now see a flurry of MP retirements to “spend more time with the family”, appointments to various ambassadorships, and even more former Libs crammed into the AAT?

    The Liberals don’t have many ideas left. Which dirt unit will discover Labor accepts campaign donations from Labor-affiliated unions?

    The difference between living in scary times, as opposed to scare campaigns, is that people actually want to vote for somebody who will fix the scary problem. Announcements don’t cut it.

  19. Baron Von Gilly says:
    Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 9:45 pm

    Paul Bongiorno seems to suspect somethings afoot.
    _____________
    Time to wheel out the LNP Spill and split election meme

  20. Time to put a fork in this government? It’s done.

    I’ll be waiting until the last electorate has been formally declared before breathing out.

    Still got PTSD from 2019.

  21. Young/ish Journos asking who Albanese is – be better to ask who Morrison is – if God creates the major disasters who are we mere mortals to thinks we can thwart God’s will. Getting a boat and going downstream with the flood seems as good a way as any. That’s if you can hold a paddle.

  28. Saying what is increasingly evident is not going to make it any more or less likely it happens.

    I understand saying anything declarative is risky, because it is. One of the many reasons I’ll be happy if Labor wins in two month’s time… these #but2019 posts can finally end.

  29. It seems crazy to roll a PM this close to poll. It would be a terrible look, reeking of desperation.

    But honestly… the transactional costs of changing leader yet again may well be less than the costs of going to the election with Scotty at the helm. If nothing else, it would rob Labor of what is currently one of their best assets: Scott Morrison.

    There’s just over two months until the latest date an election can be called, and they are at a 45-55 deficit, with every attempt to turn things around coming to nothing. The two main leadership contenders are at serious risk of losing their seats, making the usually more sensible “let Scotty wear the loss and try for Opposition Leader” course a dicier option for both of them. A federal ICAC has the potential to prematurely end the careers of many of those will retain their seats, and possibly much worse.

    What have they got to lose?

  32. A steady lead and Albo continuing to improve in a measure which shouldn’t be relevant yet somehow is is about all we can ask for. Minor party movements look more like noise than anything.

  33. JT:

    Saying what is increasingly evident is not going to make it any more or less likely it happens.

    Yep. If Labor loses the election, it won’t be because some people on Poll Bludger got overconfident.

  35. JM,

    I’ll be waiting until the last electorate has been formally declared before breathing out.

    Still got PTSD from 2019.

    +eleventy …to the power of 100!!

  36. What have they got to lose?

    The election. Still. Just like in 2013 when Labor were well and truly on the nose…And they lost the election anyway, even with a new/old leadership change at 5 minutes to midnight.

    One other factor that may be playing into people’s considerations is that they can see that America took the plunge and elected a leader from the Left and maybe Australia will be alright if we do too. America has hardly fallen into the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

    Also, I reckon the biggest mistake the Coalition continue to make is denying the onset of the effects of Climate Change. They’re still retailing the, ‘It’s a 1/1000 year flood or bushfire’ claptrap. It’s bs and they know it and we know it. I reckon it’s the #1 issue on people’s minds. People know we’ve lived in blissful ignorance for too long and it’s time to pay the piper.

  38. ”
    Sandmansays:
    Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 9:51 pm
    The only negative the SmearStralian could come up with was

    “Almost one in seven voters, however, are yet to make up their minds about Mr Albanese” which means that one in seven are yet to make up their mind about SfM if you want to twist it that way. Weird comment that makes no sense.
    ”

    No, they made up their minds about Morrison but hiding it. However regarding Albanese 1 in 7 are yet to make up their mind, which I honestly find baffling. Why? Because he is in Parliament longer than Morrison. Then you may say there are quite a few politicians, who are Parliament, we don’t much about, especially who are in Senate.
    True but they were not as high profile as Albanese. That is the reason why I find it baffling.
    Also, he is not from subset of Australians, who became PMs. He is from a different subset, which takes time to digest.

  45. Cat

    I’d take the million. and still not vote for them.

    Was back when Howard was chucking money at pensioners my mother asked why she was getting the extra payments.

    “It’s a bribe,” I said. “To get you to vote for them.”

    “Well it won’t work with me,” she snorted.

    She’s 97 and still voting Labor.

  47. Dutton wil soon make a statement that “Scomo has his full support and that he is ambitious for Scomo”
    Then you will know Dutton will dump Morrison.

  49. Socrates @ #18 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 9:54 pm

    Announcements don’t cut it.

    Especially from a liar, an accusation which I think is now pretty well baked in. No one trusts a liar. It’s been said here before, but the Macron episode was a turning point in general perception, and was the point of no recourse. And what’s more, everything since had only highlighted it, up to this week, with the fumbling bumbling line about the States need to ask for help. Apart from the question – do these people actually talk to each other – it’s a lie.

    But the federal government changed the law in December 2020 to give itself the power to issue the emergency declarations unilaterally in a change recommended by the royal commission into the Black Summer bushfires two years ago.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sukkar-escalates-row-over-pace-of-disaster-response-20220313-p5a47d.html

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