Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Anthony Albanese draws level on preferred prime minister as Labor maintains its commanding lead on voting intention.

As reported in The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll records no change for either major party on voting intention, with Labor retaining a lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred and 41% to 35% on the primary vote. For the minor parties, the Greens are down a point to 8%, One Nation is steady on 3% and the United Australia Party is down one to 3%, with all others up two to 10%. Anthony Albanese has drawn level with Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister for the first time since Morrison’s post-bushfires nadir in February 2020 at 42-42, after Morrison led 42-40 last time. Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 41% with disapproval steady at 55%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and down one to 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1520.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,117 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. 3z, I certainly would not be surprised if Labor got the third senate spot in Victoria.

    Not sure of elsewhere but if the greens lose a couple of percent and Labor gain four percent, all of a sudden you are at near level peggings

  2. Just to be clear, the lnp get smashed with a PV of 35 under any competent, cogent analysis of the facts. It would be almost impossible for them to hit 47 2pp

  3. ”
    Snappy Tomsays:
    Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:16 pm
    C@t at 10.09pm

    Remember, according to Baaarnyaaard, a “one in three thousand five hundred year” flood!
    ”

    Snappy Tom
    This question must have been asked and answered. But can you or someone else clarify whether biblical flood, where Noah built the ark happened 3500 years ago?

  4. @TR – Yep. If the LNP PV continues where it is, or nearabouts, it will require almost all of the vote shift to be to be from LNP to indies, RWNJ minors and Labor to only get scraps for them to have a chance. In order for Labor to lose despite an LNP primary vote in the mid-30s – Labor’s PV will basically need to stay still or only move slightly – which would mean a SIGNIFICANT surge in minors and Indies. There isn’t a single piece of information suggesting this is what’s happening.

    Of course we don’t KNOW – we never KNOW until it’s over.

  5. The Revisionist says:
    Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 11:31 pm

    Just to be clear, the lnp get smashed with a PV of 35 under any competent, cogent analysis of the facts. It would be almost impossible for them to hit 47 2pp

    If the result is 53/47 Labor will win with 79 seats. Their numerous enemies will have 72. The result in 2019 was utterly abysmal for Labor. 79/72 is not getting “smashed”. Labor would win 10 seats, most of which would have to be taken from sitting members. That would be an excellent result..….let’s see what the budget and the campaign bring.

  6. Ven:

    Historians have quite a few different theories as to where stories of the “great flood” may have originated:

    Mesopotamia, like other early sites of riverine civilisation, was flood-prone; and for those experiencing valley-wide inundations, flooding could destroy the whole of their known world.[20]

    (…)

    Floods in the wake of the last glacial period may have inspired myths that survive to this day.[22] It has been postulated that in North America, flood myths may be based on a sudden rise in sea levels caused by the rapid draining of prehistoric Lake Agassiz at the end of the last ice age, about 8,400 years ago.[23][need quotation to verify]

    The geography of the Mesopotamian area changed considerably with the filling of the Persian Gulf after sea waters rose following the last glacial period. Global sea levels were about 120 m (390 ft) lower around 18,000 BP and rose until 8,000 BP when they reached current levels, which are now an average 40 m (130 ft) above the floor of the Gulf, which was a huge (800 km × 200 km, 500 mi × 120 mi) low-lying and fertile region in Mesopotamia, in which human habitation is thought to have been strong around the Gulf Oasis for 100,000 years. A sudden increase in settlements above the present-day water level is recorded at around 7,500 BP.[24][25]

    One hypothesis suggests that a meteor or comet crashed into the Indian Ocean around 3000–2800 BC, creating the 30-kilometre (19 mi) undersea Burckle Crater, and generating a giant tsunami that flooded coastal lands.[26]

    Historian Adrienne Mayor theorizes that global flood stories may have been inspired by ancient observations of seashells and fish fossils in inland and mountain areas. The ancient Greeks, Egyptians, and Romans all documented the discovery of such remains in such locations; the Greeks hypothesized that Earth had been covered by water on several occasions, citing the seashells and fish fossils found on mountain tops as evidence of this idea.[27]

    Speculation regarding the Deucalion myth has postulated a large tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea, caused by the Thera eruption (with an approximate geological date of 1630–1600 BC), as the myth’s historical basis. Although the tsunami hit the South Aegean Sea and Crete, it did not affect cities in the mainland of Greece, such as Mycenae, Athens, and Thebes, which continued to prosper, indicating that it had a local rather than a region-wide effect.[28]

    The Black Sea deluge hypothesis offers a controversial account of long-term flooding; the hypothesis argues for a catastrophic irruption of water about 5600 BC from the Mediterranean Sea into the Black Sea basin. This has become the subject of considerable discussion.[29][30]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_myth

  7. We’ve no idea what a national 53-47 would wash out to though, it depends what the state by state swings end up being and the individual idiosyncracies in the states.

  8. Ven re The Great Flood

    It’s been 40 years since I thought the Bible was anything like ‘scientific’ (as in ‘scientific method’ or ‘natural sciences’). I have to admit, I never paid attention to anyone trying to calculate how long ago the Noah’s ark thing happened, as I always regarded it is part of a collection of foundational poetry.

    So, you know, a long time ago…?

    Sadly for Baaarnyaaard, more than 3500 years!

  9. @jt1983

    That is something to look forward too, the Newspoll state breakdowns that should appear pretty soon before the election

  12. Thanks Asha and Snappy Tom. Interesting read. 🙂

    I repeat before I go to sleep. I may sound greedy especially after 2019 result, ALP 2PP is lower than what it should be after what happened in Australia in last 2 weeks. Even Howard government trailed 42-58 in Newspoll in first week of September, 2007 and they were a picture of efficiency when compared to current government. Also non of the current ministers were Ministers in 2007.

  13. Tremendous overall numbers for Labor, little doubt influenced by, among other things, Morrison’s slackness in invoking the 2020 legislation that allows the C’th to invoke emergency declarations of its own volition. The Lismore flood was particularly poorly handled, with civilian volunteers rescuing quite a number of people from the roofs of their homes days after the flooding started, where the ADF should’ve been mobilised with haste – just like Tracy.

    Albanese should be very happy with the improvement in his personal indicia, drawing level with Morrison as preferred prime minister, a feat which I think is fairly rare. And it would be most surprising if the Tories aren’t in a state of flux tonight but they’re hamstrung. If they think
    Dutton’s the solution – Mr. 12.5% – he’ll never be the PM of this country.
    He’s electoral poison save for perhaps regional & rural Queensland. Frydenberg may improve their prospects though I think the majority have had a gutful of this arrogant, corrupt sham of a government.

  14. For those wondering which 45% continue to support the Coalition, remember that Trump attracted 74 million votes in 2020, which would have been a record popular vote for a presidential candidate – except Biden attracted 81 million.

    74 million Trump votes ? Seriously?

    The UK had already chimed in with Brexit and BoJo.

    Something weird going on in some English-speaking countries…

  16. jt1983 says:
    Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 11:51 pm

    We’ve no idea what a national 53-47 would wash out to though, it depends what the state by state swings end up being and the individual idiosyncracies in the states.

    Indeed. 53/47 in WA would be an 8.5% swing from last time and would deliver three seats to Labor if evenly distributed. It would represent no change in
    Victoria and a 2.3% swing in SA, on the basis of which Labor would win Boothby – to be undefended by an incumbent – for the first time since 1949. The swing would be 4.8% in NSW and would enable Labor to win Reid and Robertson. 53% would be a decline in Labor’s vote in Tasmania.

    Labor would be close to forming a majority if it could take these seats. If Labor is not also able to regain a seat in Tasmania, it would need to win at least 1 seat in Queensland, which could be done with these results: Brisbane with a 5% swing; Dickson 4.7%; Leichhardt 4.2%; Longman 3.3%; Ryan 6.1%.

    53/47 would represent an 11.4% swing in Queensland and would yield 11 seats to Labor. Labor has never polled this well in QLD in any election since 1949. It’s best results were in 1961 (50.7% 2PP), 1990 (50.19), 2007 (50.44). If Labor were to win Ryan on a uniform statewide swing its 2PP vote would be 47.7% and its second best result since 1993.

    This suggests that if Labor polls 53/47 nationally, it must do rather better than that in States other than QLD. Labor’s best result since 1949 in Victoria was in 1983 (54.5%); NSW in 1972 (55.4%); WA 1983 (55.0%); SA 1969 (54.2%); Tasmania 2010 (60.6%)

    Labor’s best result nationally since 1949 was 53.23% in 1983. In that year Labor’s 2PP vote in QLD was 49.46%, it’s 6th best result in that state since 1949.

    Labor has done well in Queensland really only when Labor has won – or only barely lost – federal elections. In 1961, 1969, 1972, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1990, 1993 and 2007 Labor’s QLD 2PP vote was around 48% or more.

    This all suggests that in the usual course of events Labor’s national 2PP vote in a good election is unlikely to surpass 53% by much, if at all; and that success nationally is not possible without getting to at least 48/52 in Queensland.

    It’s close. Even on 53/47, Labor’s postwar high-water mark, it’s close…but it is within reach.

    Maybe the disintegration of the Reactionary vote will become more pronounced. Maybe the rise of the Lite will really completely degrade them in their best seats, and they will collapse into a broken heap. I hope so. This would likely herald a new Labor government and would change Australian politics. That would be a very good thing. It would break the post-war settings in this country and prompt the dissolution of the Lying Reactionary Party.

  17. Look at this utter shite from the Oz:
    Media blames PM for floods, voters won’t.
    Voters in much of suburban Australia won’t hold Morrison personally responsible for disasters they know would have happened whichever party was in power.

    Chris Mitchell

    Youre part of the media you wally!!

  18. I think if anyone unseats Scotty it will be Frydo. The Liberal party room showed last time that it didn’t think Dutton was the right choice.

    How loyal is Frydenberg though?

  21. Something weird going on in some English-speaking countries…

    Common thread: Murdoch.

    ● Anti-Putin in UK and AUS.

    ● Pro-Putin in USA.

    ● Anti-Left everywhere.

  22. Simon Benson (the hack) makes an important point in his Newspoll analysis:

    “In March 2019, Newspoll recorded the Coalition primary vote at 36 per cent.

    Today, almost precisely the same period before the next election, it is on 35 per cent, well within the margin of error to be comparable.

    Labor was then on 39 per cent and is now on 41 per cent. The combined Labor/Greens vote is at 49 per cent, only one point different from the 48 per cent in March 2019.

    The two-party-preferred vote was then 46-54 in Labor’s favour. It is now 45-55. So the answer to the question of whether the Coalition can win from here is obviously yes.”

  23. hazza4257 says:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 6:39 am
    Simon Benson (the hack) makes an important point in his Newspoll analysis:
    ————
    Morrison and his cronies are toast its over

    What the newsltd hack is not telling ,

    1-Morrison fled to Hawaii during the bushfires
    2-Morrison and his cronies corruption
    3-Morrison and his cronies incompetence of the vaccine / Booster/ Rapid Antigen Test rollout
    4- Economy over health -Let the virus spread (living with the virus)
    5- Morrison and his cronies are always too late to react
    6-Morrison and his cronies join Court cases with Palmer and One Nation – to open W.A and QLD borders
    7-Australia was in a recession before the corona virus came to Australia

    Morrison has been prime minister for 3 years and failed
    In 2019 Morrison was given a chance

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Small target strategy working for Anthony Albanese, but Scott Morrison can still win from here, says (hopes?) Simon Benson.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/small-target-strategy-working-for-anthony-albanese-but-scott-morrison-can-still-win-from-here/news-story/53a212a47933f83e072cab523c2023d2
    Here’s Michelle Grattan’s take on the latest Newspoll.
    https://theconversation.com/anthony-albanese-now-level-with-scott-morrison-as-better-pm-newspoll-179180
    Katherine Murphy looks at Albanese’s 60 Minutes interview.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/13/anthony-albanese-60-minutes-interview-election-2022
    Geoffrey Robertson argues that Vladimir Putin is guilty of war crimes and the Hague must collect the evidence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-is-guilty-of-war-crimes-and-the-hague-must-collect-the-evidence-20220311-p5a3zx.html
    David Crowe tells us that a political row over the cost of living is building pressure on Scott Morrison to cut some of the federal government’s $20.8 billion in petrol and diesel excise while the war in Ukraine drives up global oil prices.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-faces-heat-on-20-8-billion-fuel-excise-20220313-p5a47c.html
    The Guardian reveals why Dan Andrews is gearing up for a showdown with the Coalition government and business over benefits like sick leave for casual workers.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/14/here-to-get-things-done-daniel-andrews-prepares-for-battle-over-paid-sick-leave
    “Oh Lord make us fiscally chaste, but not yet, says Morrison”, writes Alna Kohler. He says Morrison’s speech to the Australian Financial Review’s business summit last week was a classic of having it both ways, of saying one thing and then immediately saying the opposite.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/03/14/alan-kohler-morrison-budget-pressure/
    Alexandra Smith reveals that the NSW State Emergency Service formally asked for troops to be sent to help deal with floods three times before the federal government responded.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-asked-for-troops-five-days-before-numbers-were-confirmed-via-media-20220313-p5a49p.html
    Whenever the feds leave a policy vacuum, the states fill it – badly. Only leadership by the federal government can make our ramshackle federation work, declares Ross Gittins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/blaming-the-states-for-national-policy-failures-won-t-wash-20220312-p5a41e.html
    The price to supermarkets of about 100 household staples including SPC baked beans and spaghetti, Ardmona canned tomatoes and Goulburn Valley fruits will rise 10 to 20 per cent as parent company SPC Global passes on what its chief executive calls the biggest price inflation shift of his career, writes the AFR’s Ronald Mizen.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/baked-beans-spaghetti-up-10-20pc-as-inflation-bites-20220313-p5a47y
    Tom Rabe reports that the NSW government is facing rising costs across its major motorway projects as a report on the state’s finances reveals $1.4 billion of spending that was not in this year’s budget. The M6 project alone has blown out by $400m.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/m6-blows-out-by-400-million-amid-pandemic-pressure-labour-shortages-20220313-p5a467.html
    In a scathing contribution, Nicholas Stuart describes Scott Morrison’s east coast submarine base as “a pre-election distraction”. He also says, “ Morrison’s read ‘distraction for dummies’ and so he knows the best way to make people think he’s delivering is always another story.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7655519/a-gulf-between-words-and-action/?cs=14264
    The decision of the National Press Club to withdraw the invitation to the Russian Ambassador to speak at the club is the latest move taking Australia to a new low in lack of commitment to free speech, argues Paul Malone.
    https://johnmenadue.com/what-has-gone-wrong-with-australian-journalisms-commitment-to-free-speech/
    Uniting Care, one of the country’s largest aged care bodies says raising wages across the sector will cost the federal government $4 billion a year — an assessment it hopes will expose the enormity of the problem to major parties in the election lead-up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-must-act-aged-care-body-calls-for-4b-annual-wages-injection-20220313-p5a47l.html
    Rob Harris tells us about the huge wave of Ukrainians heading west.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/desperately-fleeing-putin-s-tanks-a-wave-of-ukrainians-spreads-west-20220310-p5a3ir.html
    The Liberal Party’s candidate for the country’s most marginal electorate, Macquarie, will be investigated over the integrity of an electoral disclosure she submitted regarding her relationship with the property sector, reports Angus Thompson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/crucial-liberal-candidate-to-be-investigated-over-electoral-disclosure-20220310-p5a3n9.html
    Kaye Lee reckons the Morrison government is our greatest threat to national security.
    https://theaimn.com/the-morrison-government-is-our-greatest-threat-to-national-security/
    Finbar O’Mallon reports that former emergency services bosses have blasted the Morrison government for failing to act on warnings before this year’s deadly and devastating floods in New South Wales and Queensland, echoing the lead up to the catastrophic Black Summer bushfires.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/03/14/former-emergency-services-chiefs-floods/?breaking_live_scroll=1
    Lawyer and Wiradjuri/Wailwan woman, Teela Reid, asks, “How much longer can the law justify the killing of Aboriginal people?”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-much-longer-can-the-law-justify-the-killing-of-aboriginal-people-20220313-p5a46n.html
    And the SMH editorial says that profound issues remain after the acquittal in the Kumanjayi Walker case.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/profound-issues-remain-after-acquittal-in-kumanjayi-walker-case-20220313-p5a49x.html
    The $30bn plan to build a giant solar farm in northern Australia to power Darwin, Indonesia and Singapore has moved a step closer to reality with billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Andrew Forrest contributing to a $210m capital raising, reports Peter Hannam.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/14/sun-cables-giant-northern-territory-solar-project-gets-210m-funding-boost
    Medical writer Melissa Waine says that schools and families need a better plan to deal with rising cases of Covid-19.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/schools-and-families-need-a-better-plan-to-deal-with-rising-cases-of-covid-19-20220313-p5a48g.html
    Doug Dingwall writes that work from home is set to become the public service’s next industrial flashpoint, as the CPSU flags pushing for protections.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7655083/work-from-home-fight-next-aps-industrial-relations-flashpoint/?cs=14264
    The extreme weather of the past fortnight has exposed the vulnerabilities in Sydney’s transport system. This chaos is just a taste of things to come, explains researcher Christopher Standen.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/brace-yourself-sydney-for-more-transport-chaos-20220311-p5a3zw.html
    Alan Duffy urges us to recycle like our planet depends on it.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/sustainability/recycle-like-our-planet-depends-on-it-20220313-p5a46p.html
    The Gonski ‘failure’: why did it happen and who is to blame for the ‘defrauding’ of public schools?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/13/the-gonski-failure-why-did-it-happen-and-who-is-to-blame-for-the-defrauding-of-public-schools
    Putin and Trump have convinced Robert Reich he was wrong about the 21st century.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/13/putin-trump-ukraine-russia-invasion-war-21st-century
    Toxic Putin is going for bust. The west must stop him before this contagion spreads, urges Simon Tisdall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/13/toxic-putin-is-going-for-bust-the-west-must-stop-him-before-this-contagion-spreads
    Colin Kruger explains some of the significant roll-on effects the Ukrainian situation is having on the global supply chain.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/semiconductor-squeeze-likely-as-sanctions-on-russia-melt-supply-20220311-p5a3to.html
    An unregistered school in Melbourne’s east that caters for young people who struggle to fit in with mainstream education and charges almost $30,000 a year is being investigated by the state’s education regulator.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/regulator-investigates-unregistered-hawthorn-school-20220309-p5a30i.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe


    Peter Broelman

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding


    Badiucao

    Jim Pavlidis

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    Nothing of value from the US today.

  26. Another very strong poll for the ALP. The big ALP 2PP lead has been stable for many months now, through the Delta wave, the Omicron wave, floods, war, surging house prices, submarines, religious discrimination arguments-it doesn’t seem as if the news and issues of the day have had any impact at all on voting intention in recent months. Maybe voter dislike of Scott Morrison means everything else has become just background noise.

    During my lifetime, federal government in Australia has changed hands just six times-Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Howard, Rudd, Abbot. Each of these changes was decisive, with the new government winning quite a strong majority, rather than falling across the line by a seat or two. Even allowing for Labor’s lead slipping during the campaign, it’s looking increasingly likely that 2022 will see a decisive change too. I just wish there were a few more LNP electorates on slim margins, I’m still fearful that Labor could pick up quite a bit of a swing towards it, without that translating into more than a handful of seats won.

  27. Good morning, all. The sun is about to shine. There is no wind. The temperature has already hit double figures. Thank you, BK.

  28. It’s still too early to get excited with that 55%. It was the same at the last federal election and then, during the actual 4-wk official campaign the 2PP plunged to about 51% for the ALP (+/- margin of error), leading to their narrow defeat.

    Now, it’s crystal clear that 2022 is NOT the same as 2019. In 2019 there was the suspicion that Scomo was crap, now that’s a certainty. Still, keep working hard as if the ALP was behind in the polls, and let’s see what happens during the official campaign… and then on election day…..
    🙂

  29. @Ven from last night:

    “ But rich people won’t make make with all the the chaos around. All the rules and regulations are there to create order and rich people make money when there is order.
    Take for example Ukraine, how can rich people in Ukraine make money in that destruction?”

    Taking Ukraine as an example, chaos is a perfect climate for war profiteers, black marketeers, bootleggers, arms dealers and collaborators. In other words, the epitome of the kiss up, kick down robber baron rum corp mentality that is the very soul of the Liberal Party & it has been thus ever since the Front Man, Menzies and the back room money funnelled by Gar Bar from his Sydney client base of said war profiteers, black marketers and rum corp merchants set up the Liberal party as a marketing exercise in evil 80 odd years ago.

  30. Thanks BK for all your work on the round up

    https://www.news.com.au/world/absurd-myth-about-vladimir-putin-finally-shattered-amid-ukraine-invasion/news-story/e9e350ca7035286e07361400cf0b9a1e

    Now I realise the reviled (rightly) nature of this source but I post only because of the tone. Sam Clench must have photos to be able to go this hard against conservatives…

    Realise it’s paywalled for many so this snipet is an example

    “Look at how the Russian military has performed in Ukraine, and you’ll see how little being anti-woke matters on the field of battle.

    But this all comes back to that obsession among Western conservatives: that “wokeness” is weakness, and is turning the world’s liberal democracies into pathetic pushovers.

    This is how Donald Trump – a chronically vain, petty, thin-skinned, selfish human being – came to be worshipped as some bastion of strength and masculinity in the US. It’s the difference between performative strength and real strength.

    The Trumpian version of strength is to be a prick to everyone. Never apologise, never admit fault, insult anyone who challenges you. It’s “America First”. It’s the stubborn refusal to show compassion for your fellow human beings, whether that means labelling immigrants as rapists or taking umbrage at something as harmless as addressing someone by their preferred pronouns…”

  31. Alexandra Smith reveals that the NSW State Emergency Service formally asked for troops to be sent to help deal with floods three times before the federal government responded.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-asked-for-troops-five-days-before-numbers-were-confirmed-via-media-20220313-p5a49p.html

    See that? F.e.d.e.r.a.l. G.o.v.e.r.n.m.e.n.t. Not State government needs to do it in writing and then we’ll do it straight away. And confirmed via media again. No formal courtesies there from the feds. Just more, government by announceables.

  32. If Simon Benson is saying those comments and we all know that Newspoll got their polling metrics wrong, is he now saying that they still have their polling metrics wrong?

    Didn’t they make adjustments because of what happened in 2019? Is he now saying they didn’t?

    The difference this time will be ALP won’t scare the horses with an extensive list of campaign promises and Shorten isn’t the leader.

  34. The Trumpian version of strength is to be a prick to everyone.

    As above in the Northern Hemisphere, so below in the Southern. And on PB. Which I find ‘interesting’ as it also comes from those who seemingly identify as from the more caring, sharing Left.

  35. Benson is turd polishing. As usual.

    Tripping down amnesia lane (so this is sus, I admit) but Morrison was always ahead of Shorten as preferred PM three years ago and was somewhat an unknown quality and hence able to market himself in a particular way, ie. ‘how good is Australia, says a relatable daggy dad’ Two thumbs. A way that we all laughed at, but was queerly relatable to low interest low information bogans. He also had enough ammunition for the forces of evil to mount one of the most effective, if dishonest, fear campaigns in my living memory.

    Also tripping down amnesia lane, that March 2019 Newspoll aside, the polls in general seemed to show a weakening trend for labor, even two months out from the poll. This time? Doesn’t the saying go ‘the trend is your friend’?

    Where is any sort of friendly polling trend? Either for ScoMo personally or the LNP more generally?

  37. Before I place a very large bet on Labor (that probably has to be spread over 2 betting agencies because of financial limits), what is the difference this time around with polling agencies, compared to 2019? Have they fixed their mistakes (such as ‘herd mentality’)? Also, does anyone remember what the 2PP Newspoll was 2 months out from the 2019 election?

  38. A-E
    That summarizes it nicely. There is something new, IMO. The Greens are experiencing being parastized by cleanskins who branding as an ‘holier-than-thou anti-Same Same’. I trust they enjoy it!

  39. Yesterday, the PMO under orders from Morrison, backgrounded the Murdoch tabloids that NSW had refused ADF support for the floods. This is the egregious modus operandi that saw the backgrounding against GladysB, which led to her referring to ScoMo as ‘that horrible man…’.

    One of The Liar’s key tactics is to deflect blame from himself – to whom doesn’t matter.

    Wise to the bastardry, the NSW Liberals are now quick to publicly call this out..

    In a veiled attack on the federal government, Mr Fitzsimmons expressed his anger with the way in which operational information had been provided and stressed that NSW and the ADF had a strong working relationship.

    He said it was “woefully inadequate” that he was made aware of additional troop numbers by the media.

    “Let me reiterate, until I talked to a journalist, I had heard no such figure of 2000,” Mr Fitzsimmons said. He immediately called the NSW ADF Brigadier for clarification which could not be provided. According to NSW officials, the state made its first request for troops on February 27, seeking assistance with sandbagging and door-knocking, and about 180 troops were deployed.

    The state made its next request, on February 28, for helicopters as well as high clearance vehicles and troops as soon as possible. Helicopters were deployed once the weather cleared enough to ensure it was safe to fly. A third request was made on March 4, the same day as Ms McKenzie’s statement.

    “In my mind, the operational relationship with the Australian Defence Force, including the securing and integration of personnel and resources has never been better,” Mr Fitzsimmons said. “But when you have details of numbers being released via the media, that detracts from that genuine relationship and undermines confidence and trust.”

    On March 4, Ms McKenzie provided a statement to Herald which said 2000 ADF personnel were ready to help. However, it was up to the state governments to decide when and where they should be deployed, she said.

    “As the commonwealth government, we can’t deploy the ADF into states. So, our ADF assets are exactly where the state governments have requested them,” she said.

    Ms McKenzie’s office has been contacted for comment.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-asked-for-troops-five-days-before-numbers-were-confirmed-via-media-20220313-p5a49p.html

  41. NSW :

    New South Wales has recorded seven COVID-19 deaths.

    There are 965 people in hospital and 44 in intensive care.

    There were 13,093 new cases of COVID reported in the state.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    Victoria :

    Victoria recorded four COVID-19 deaths and 5,192 new infections.

    There are 195 people in hospital with the virus, an increase from 175 on Saturday.

    Of those in hospital, 25 are in intensive care, with eight patients on ventilators.

  44. Just a reminder for the rusted on Labor voters who like to take the moral higher ground – Labor have explicit plans to carry on with coal extraction beyond 2060.

    Cognitive dissonance is a helluva drug

  45. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, March 14, 2022 at 7:41 am
    Alexandra Smith reveals that the NSW State Emergency Service formally asked for troops to be sent to help deal with floods three times before the federal government responded.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-asked-for-troops-five-days-before-numbers-were-confirmed-via-media-20220313-p5a49p.html

    See that? F.e.d.e.r.a.l. G.o.v.e.r.n.m.e.n.t. Not State government needs to do it in writing and then we’ll do it straight away. And confirmed via media again. No formal courtesies there from the feds. Just more, government by announceables.
    ”

    But according to ABC Breakfast News, ADF approached SES, NSW on 25th February twice, 3 days before Lismore flooding, to provide assistance. But SES rejected that assistance.

  46. ICAC closing in on Pork Barilaro grants to Angus Taylor associated companies…

    New documents reveal the New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption has asked detailed questions about a $107,000 grant made by the former deputy premier, John Barilaro, to Monaro Farming Systems, a company linked to the family of federal cabinet minister Angus Taylor.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/14/icac-queries-grant-made-by-john-barilaro-to-company-linked-to-angus-taylors-family?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  47. “In March 2019, Newspoll recorded the Coalition primary vote at 36 per cent.

    Today, almost precisely the same period before the next election, it is on 35 per cent, well within the margin of error to be comparable.

    Labor was then on 39 per cent and is now on 41 per cent. The combined Labor/Greens vote is at 49 per cent, only one point different from the 48 per cent in March 2019.

    The two-party-preferred vote was then 46-54 in Labor’s favour. It is now 45-55. So the answer to the question of whether the Coalition can win from here is obviously yes.”

    – Thanks for this. Answers my question. I’ll hold off placing a substantial bet.

  48. Newspoll still very encouraging. While I think PPM and netsat are generally dubious measures, the fact that Albo is level pegging on PPM and in a much better position on netsat seem significant (as much as anything because Opposition Leaders usually have a built in disadvantage on those measures).

    It also suggests that the coalition’s current campaign to paint Albo as an unknown quantity isn’t biting and is unlikely to work. The more people are familiar with Albo it seems, the more they like what they see.

    I won’t be anything like comfortable until William/Antony Green call a defeat of the coalition on election night, but overall the polling picture seems just about as positive as it reasonably could be at the moment.

  49. The issue with 2019 wasn’t so much a closure over time; but a systematic polling failure, which has been partially dealt with in the meantime. Not sure anyone considers it has been fully addressed?

  50. “ICAC closing in on Pork Barilaro grants to Angus Taylor associated companies…”

    Has FriendlyJordies covered this in the past?

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