As reported in The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll records no change for either major party on voting intention, with Labor retaining a lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred and 41% to 35% on the primary vote. For the minor parties, the Greens are down a point to 8%, One Nation is steady on 3% and the United Australia Party is down one to 3%, with all others up two to 10%. Anthony Albanese has drawn level with Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister for the first time since Morrison’s post-bushfires nadir in February 2020 at 42-42, after Morrison led 42-40 last time. Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 41% with disapproval steady at 55%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and down one to 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1520.
They are certainly running out of time all they have is the pre election pork budget in 2 weeks.
Since when have we had a budget in March?? What is the justification for this nonsence apart from pre election blatant pork announcing.
I assume SfM will gatecrash Warnies funeral on the 30th for a photo op so that will ruin the momentum of any actual governing.
Time to put a fork in this government? It’s done.
It ain’t over till it’s over*. I’ll keep the champagne on ice until the postal votes have been counted.
In that tightrope picture posted by C@t, it’s not s calm, sunny day. It’s gales with driving rain as the Morrison Government fights like a bunch of cornered rats with the support of the mainstream media and 95% of Money. Still, 55-45 is a pretty handy buffer to have two months out.
* Yogi Berra (not to be confused with Yogi Bear), who seems to have been US Baseball’s equivalent of Rugby League’s Rex Mossup.
Snappy Tom @ #46 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 10:16 pm
I’m surprised, with so many Christians in the government that there have been no allusions to the End Days before the 2nd Coming. Funny how they go quiet about that stuff when it collides with uncomfortable reality. 😉
Good chance the Greens are losing votes to both the Teals and via their anti-vaxxer fringe looking for anti-vax options (although don’t necessarily count on those preferences ending up with the coalition anyway), but how permanent either movement is, as well as what happens if either or both prove temporary past the next election is not a question that can be answered.
They would also be hoping Thorpe settles down before becoming a personal drag on their Victorian vote.
The Greens are wilting.
16 days to the next party room meeting
16 days to the Budget
(likely) 19-21 days until the election is called
@Fumbles – 2019 Budget was 2 April.
At this stage of the cycle a leadership change likely doesn’t change the outcome. Keep in mind Labor got a boost after Turnbull was rolled. This bullshit isn’t rewarded. I expect you’ll get rumblings out of Qld and NSW – but WA, SA, Tas and Vic know Dutton is pure poison – he’s not even that popular in Qld.
>Since when have we had a budget in March?? What is the justification for this nonsence apart from pre election blatant pork announcing.
Only because they must have the election in May due to the Senate needing to be counted and in place in July. You can’t have the Budget during the campaign, as the house of reps is dissolved, so March it is. (Conceivably they could do it in August, but apparently the public service is now so accustomed to the Budget process occurring before the end of the financial year its easier to truncate it.).
@jt1983
Thanks for that, 2019 election budget
Never got used to the budget being changed from August
William, I noticed the state-level figures in Bludgertrack have been updated. How heavily are Morgan’s state breakdowns weighted in those?
Rex Douglas @ #597 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 2:51 pm
I was hoping he may have had a chance.
But if you think so, he must be stuffed.
The save the furniture argument is valid but Dutton is not the man to save the furniture.
The last thing you need is to be wiped out in a state or area of a state. A bit like the ALP is struggling to campaign in regional Queensland despite only an election ago holding seats and hoping to gain seats. Or the CLP who are struggling to come together in the NT and be a proper opposition.
Even worse is to become a crippled party, where you are left only with the extremists of the party who hold very little appeal to the voters and therefore spend the whole time preaching to the choir. The Victorian Liberals are an example of that, most of the moderates were wiped out at the last election and therefore are failing to cut through.
And if Dutton is handed the leadership they are likely to suffer a bit of both. They might wipe themselves out in middle Melbourne and Sydney and be left with fools and extremists from outback Queensland and filling the senate.
”
somethinglikethatsays:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:11 pm
Who are the 45%??
”
That was my question when I saw 55-45. I am being gready but I am bit disappointed ALP 2PP is not higher after all that happened in last fortnight.
For crying out loud, as Americans say, what else Australian people want to make their minds about this government. Even Howard government, which is a personification of competence, trailed 42-58 against Rudd led ALP in 1st week of September, 2007.
Maybe they only read Murdoch News and watch Channel 7 and listen to 2GB.
Even Rich people have to understand that the current bunch is hopeless for their cause.
Just on the high fuel prices…
Saw news item with Scomo asked about reducing fuel excise. He said (WTTE) ‘The budget’s on 29 March…’
If I were Albo, I wouldn’t pre-empt Scomo and support a reduction, I’d criticise Scomo thusly: ‘The Prime Minister has the power to help people right away – why is he putting it off? If he wants to help reduce petrol price pressure, why is he waiting until the budget? Does he ALWAYS want to be a day late and a dollar short?’
By the way, I think reducing fuel excise is terrible policy, I just think it’s another opportunity to do Scotty’s head in.
They have and they haven’t. They’re still a month behind because I’m granting exclusivity on up-to-date figures to a client for the time being. Morgan’s state breakdowns are given a weighting of zero.
Snappy Tom @ #63 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 10:27 pm
I’d say is this like his response to the floods – weeks late.
@Snappy Tom says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:28 pm
By the way, I think reducing fuel excise is terrible policy, I just think it’s another opportunity to do Scotty’s head in.
__________________
In that case I would bet dollars to doughnuts that a temporary cut in the excise of say around 10c will be announced in the budget for err 12 months
As you said terrible policy so exactly what a desperate SfM will do
L’arse made a bludger comeback yesterday with a typically asinine contribution. Then disappeared again.
Surely, in light of tonight’s Newspoll, he is going to regale us with his Peak Albo theory? And his sunlight uplands re-election theory, as the father of the nation basks in the glory of his eternally grateful children wishing to express their gratitude for a job well done (national fully vaccinated by the end of the year: Huzzah! White Wog Djokovic sent packing. What!)..
Come on L’arse. Where are you? Your Captain needs you!
Who are the 45%??
– The wealthy.
– Those who aspire to wealth (a great many more than who will ever attain it).
– Traditional conservatives.
– Those who regard life primarily a contest, one which they think they are winning
– Right-wing authoritarians, racists and other bigots (either directly or through preferences from RWNJ parties)
– Low-information voters who benefit from specific election bribes and/or believe what they see in the headlines in the Daily Rupert.
– I’ve probably left a few out.
Thanks, William.
Petrol and Diesel will be significantly lower by Easter. The price of Oil has fallen from the $147 to about $112 per barrel.
However, Albo announcing that he would introduce a six week excise holiday from this week is the perfect wedge of the government.
If the government is forced to follow through it is forcing them to do something they don’t want to do.
If the government doesn’t do it, with their primary defence being that it will blow an already blown budget, they will be forced to cope the flak and adds to the narrative that they couldn’t fight their way out of a bag bag. And Albo doesn’t have to worry about the lost revenue as the government will have saved it for him.
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:09 pm
What have they got to lose?
The election. Still. Just like in 2013 when Labor were well and truly on the nose…And they lost the election anyway, even with a new/old leadership change at 5 minutes to midnight.
One other factor that may be playing into people’s considerations is that they can see that America took the plunge and elected a leader from the Left and maybe Australia will be alright if we do too. America has hardly fallen into the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
Also, I reckon the biggest mistake the Coalition continue to make is denying the onset of the effects of Climate Change. They’re still retailing the, ‘It’s a 1/1000 year flood or bushfire’ claptrap. It’s bs and they know it and we know it.
”
Certainly Dutton knows it is BS. The proof was his comment to Abbott and Morrison about water lapping on Pacific Islander homes standing in front of Mike.
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/11/peter-dutton-jokes-with-tony-abbott-about-rising-sea-levels-in-pacific-nations?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16471717699850&_ct=1647171777471&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2015%2Fsep%2F11%2Fpeter-dutton-jokes-with-tony-abbott-about-rising-sea-levels-in-pacific-nations
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 9:34 pm
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (0) ALP 41 (0) GRN 8 (-1) ON 3 (0) UAP 3 (-1) #auspol
Others…10….
All the alt-reactionaries put together: UAP, ON, Others = 16
To have a chance of holding on as minority rabble, the Lying Reactionaries need a 2PP of about 48%…
LRP PV = 35
Under-reactionaries (G) = 2
If, say, Alt-reactionaries >
UAP =2.5/3;
ON = 2.5/3;
Christians = 1.5/1.5;
Lite = 2.0/4;
Other = 2.0/4.5
47.5… LRP lose ..…Labor majority is probably 1 seat, all other things being equal. Disaffection with the LRP and the Greens is registering as intention to vote Labor (a PV gain of 8 points since 2019) and/or Other, who now collectively outpoll the Greens 2:1. If the LRP can hold on to 12/16 (75%) of the non-Green “other” vote they might stave off Labor. No wonder that Morrison has been courting the Crazy End of politics. Trouble is…every vote he might gain there costs him 2 or 3 elsewhere.
The Green vote is declining. The Labor plurality is improving. The Reactionary vote is disintegrating. Good. Signs are encouraging.
Even Rich people have to understand that the current bunch is hopeless for their cause.
Rich people want to be left free to make more money without having to bother with regulation, the climate, the environment, tax or fairness to workers, customers or small competitors. They regard a Labor Government as unacceptable, no matter how blitheringly incompetent their guys may be. They won’t be switching sides.
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:17 pm
somethinglikethat @ #40 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 10:11 pm
Who are the 45%??
My parents. Sad to say. They worked hard for everything they got in life and they will support the party that is not the party of the Dole Bludgers until the day they die.
”
Even after 1 in 1000 year flood?
Do they know that you are on Poll Bludger? 🙂
Petrol and Diesel will be significantly lower by Easter. The price of Oil has fallen from the $147 to about $112 per barrel.
I read that the Saudis were forcing the price to stay as high as possible for as long as possible in order to funnel as much money to Putin as possible since many other avenues of revenue for him are being shut off.
@B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:41 , pm
Petrol and Diesel will be significantly lower by Easter. The price of Oil has fallen from the $147 to about $112 per barrel.
_______________
IF Scummo was smart he would do exactly that, announce something to reduce exise and plan on a natural decline in world price then say during the election campaign proper “how good am I the LNP delivered lower petrol prices”.
Ven @ #75 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 10:48 pm
Even after the floods. They know my politics. And they never stop trying to change my mind. 😀
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #77 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 10:49 pm
But it’s at the stage now where people would likely say it’s just another ScoMo stunt.
AE, Lars was confidently claiming peak Albo in October 2021.
Apart from the confidence of the prediction there was, not surprisingly, no explanation for the prediction. Perhaps he mentioned something in support from one or other of his geriatric but fictional great aunts.
I feel some need to see this and realise Labor actually does do well preference-wise. Some actual numbers – not made up… but also demonstrate how reliant the Liberals are on a strong PV.
Labor
2010: 38% PV -> 50.1% 2PP (+12.1%)
2013: 33.4% PV -> 46.5% 2PP (+13.1%)
2016: 34.7% PV -> 49.6% 2PP (+14.9%)
2019: 33.3% PV -> 48.5% 2PP (+15.2%)
Coalition
2010: 43.3% PV -> 49.9% 2PP (+6.3%)
2013: 45.6% PV -> 53.5% 2PP (+7.9%)
2016: 42% PV -> 50.4% 2PP (+8.4%)
2019: 41.4% PV -> 51.5% 2PP (+10.1%)
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:51 pm
But it’s at the stage now where people would likely say it’s just another ScoMo stunt.
________________
And when has that ever stopped him before, will play well to the ute owning, low info, aspirant bogun base
2019 taught me never to be complacent about opinion polls, why I will not join in the popping of champagne corks in here tonight.
Morrison is a wily campaigner, there are no doubt tax cuts coming in the budget, and most of the media will campaign against Labor.
I can certainly foresee Labor making gains in all states except Qld, that one worries me
Filled up the car yesterday. $2.19/litre x 69 litre tank = 🙁
I’ll take that newspoll. There are no bad figures for the ALP in it. 🙂
I’d be REALLY surprised if the Lib/Nats try and dump Morrison, but would love to see that line get a run in the media.
I reckon the impression of Lib disunity cant to anything but hurt them, would mean Morrison has to address that (likely badly) or be seen to be squirming and desperate at every presser and photo op. But that’s up to the media and they are still generally Lib friendly. 🙁 If the govt / opposition polling positions were reversed then ALL we would be hearing from the media would be ALP #leadershit. 🙁
If the Libs did toss Morrison then i think it would actually improve their polling. Have come across a lot of people who would actually like to vote Lib but just cant stomach the Liar from the Shire, and in W.A. his association with Palmer.
Fiddling with fuel excise might be a good Morrison stunt but how would you know it the cut was being passed on.
In Perth the price of fuel can vary by more than 2oc a litre from day to day across a few suburbs.
Without transparency in pricing who would know if any excise cut was passed on.
But be sure the liberals will declare Labor has a secret plan to tax fuel …
It’s looking increasingly like the electorate has made its mind up to change government, with Labor’s primary around 40%, the LNP several points behind that, the Greens on 10 and everyone else sharing 15 or so, washing out to the 55/45 2PP we’ve been seeing for much of the year. Of course, the final election result won’t be that much of a landslide, surely, given that only a handful of Federal elections have recorded a 2PP anything like that. But the longer polls keep coming back looking like this, the more you’d have to think that there is a landslide on the way. A 55/45 election result will see Labor win north of 90 seats, and while I don’t expect that to come to pass, a Rudd-sized majority of 10-15 seats is looking increasingly plausible.
The government has one last chance to reset the dial, with the Budget at the end of the month. But given that none of the possible black swan events like the Ukraine war, the widespread flooding or the “end” of the pandemic (not really the end of course, but don’t tell the Murdoch media) have given the government any boost, it’s hard to see how a bunch of election promises made via the Budget are going to help. Indeed, that one last set piece may yet unravel completely if the Libs decide that their only hope is to knife Morrison. Personally, I think it’s now too late for a leadership change, but desperation can do funny things to politicians.
”
Steve777says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:47 pm
Even Rich people have to understand that the current bunch is hopeless for their cause.
Rich people want to be left free to make more money without having to bother with regulation, the climate, the environment, tax or fairness to workers, customers or small competitors. They regard a Labor Government as unacceptable, no matter how blitheringly incompetent their guys may be. They won’t be switching sides.
”
But rich people won’t make make with all the the chaos around. All the rules and regulations are there to create order and rich people make money when there is order.
Take for example Ukraine, how can rich people in Ukraine make money in that destruction?
jt1983 says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:54 pm
_______________
One thing of interest from those number is 2022 is shaping up to be an inverse of 2019 at least on PV alone
2019: 41.4% PV -> 51.5% 2PP (+10.1%) LNP
2019: 33.3% PV -> 48.5% 2PP (+15.2%) ALP
Unlikely what if going by pref previous, the big RWNJ vote last time shows for the LNP (up 2%in pref share to over 10%)
2022: 40.0% PV -> 55% 2PP (+15%) ALP
2019: 35% PV -> 45% 2PP (+10%) LNP
I heard once someone say that the likes of Trump, Morrison etc is that they are incompetent to only those that don’t matter. AMAZINGLY competent to those who are in their circle who want specific things.
Rossmcg says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 11:01 pm
Fiddling with fuel excise might be a good Morrison stunt but how would you know it the cut was being passed on.
In Perth the price of fuel can vary by more than 2oc a litre from day to day across a few suburbs.
Without transparency in pricing who would know if any excise cut was passed on.
But be sure the liberals will declare Labor has a secret plan to tax fuel …
_______________
Details just details as Sir Joh Bonkers Bananas one said, dont you worry about that
Step one Announce freeze, cut or something
Step two Do nothing photo thumbs up at petrol station filling as Tesla
Step three take credit when world prices get back to equilibrium
Details and scrutiny are only for ALP policies
”
jt1983says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:54 pm
I feel some need to see this and realise Labor actually does do well preference-wise. Some actual numbers – not made up… but also demonstrate how reliant the Liberals are on a strong PV.
Labor
2010: 38% PV -> 50.1% 2PP (+12.1%)
2013: 33.4% PV -> 46.5% 2PP (+13.1%)
2016: 34.7% PV -> 49.6% 2PP (+14.9%)
2019: 33.3% PV -> 48.5% 2PP (+15.2%)
Coalition
2010: 43.3% PV -> 49.9% 2PP (+6.3%)
2013: 45.6% PV -> 53.5% 2PP (+7.9%)
2016: 42% PV -> 50.4% 2PP (+8.4%)
2019: 41.4% PV -> 51.5% 2PP (+10.1%)
”
JT
You asked us to look at the preference flow. I looked at that and I also looked at the PV, which didn’t change between 2013 to 2019. That is what worries me more. Can ALP really crack high 30s to low 40s, which is what is needed to win an election?
”
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:55 pm
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:51 pm
But it’s at the stage now where people would likely say it’s just another ScoMo stunt.
________________
And when has that ever stopped him before, will play well to the ute owning, low info, aspirant bogun base
”
And every latest stunt tops the previous one in its ridiculousness. 🙂
Baffling to put it mildly.
Simon
While Thorpe may drag the Victorian Greens vote down, she is pretty much assured re-election in that state. How long she remains a member of the Greens after being re-elected is another matter.
I think the Greens would be much more worried about her dragging down the vote elsewhere. The Greens should be electing a Senator in every state with the demise of GTVs. They certainly should be picking one up in South Australia. But it be a closer run thing in Queensland and New South Wales.
I still think its (unfortunately) likely the Greens will win six. The voters who appear to be deserting them in favour of thw Teals in the lower house won’t have the same option in the Senate. And its probably too far a hill to climb for Labor to secure three seats anywhere (except Tasmania) and displace a Green.
@Ven – of course it can – the only reason why the Labor primary vote stays that low would be the LNP primary doesn’t budge, do we think this is going to happen? This is especially true if the Green vote is on the decline.
So far, the data we have is a pretty clear vote swap Liberal to Labor is going on.
The only way to know for sure will be probably on 7 May.
@Ven
I fully expect him to turn up at Warnies funeral wearing a Straya tracksuit with a can of VB, Vegemite sandwich and a pack of winne blues under his sleeve
”Fiddling with fuel excise might be a good Morrison stunt but how would you know it the cut was being passed on.”
That’s another question journalists might ask the PM: “how do we know that the oil companies won’t simply pocket the cut in excise?”
Basic but compelling analysis jt1983
Essentially, in those 4 elections, Labor has fallen between roughly 60 and 66% of the preference flow.
Taking 60%, even Pvs of 36 to 39 to LNP advantage would translate to a 2pp advantage of 51 to 49 to Labor.
So basically this requires a 4% shift of pvs from Labor to LNP and the preferences to flow as favourably as they have in the last 4 elections
Steve777 says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 11:17 pm
”Fiddling with fuel excise might be a good Morrison stunt but how would you know it the cut was being passed on.”
That’s another question journalists might ask the PM: “how do we know that the oil companies won’t simply pocket the cut in excise?”
_____________________________
Simply “I reject the premise of the question”, then bravely runs away
OF course they would pass it on free money from the Govt, just like jobkeeper, rorts keeper, donerkeeper and every other rort
jt1983 says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 10:54 pm
Sure. The prefs going to the LRP and/or Labor will go towards determining the election result.
Given the very poor result for Labor in 2019, if the LRP can obtain 12.5/24 prefs from all “other” sources in the coming election, they can conceivably still form a minority government after the election even with a starting PV of 35, all other things being equal.
The coalition PV is taking a bashing (it seems). Disaffection is not registering solely as a shift in support from the LRP to Labor. It is registering as well as a shift to 3rd choices. Where will the prefs of 3rd choices go? They constitute 16% of the electorate (not including the Greens). This is likely to be decisive. If the “other” prefs split in favour of Labor, Labor will win. And if not, Labor will lose.
I hope that the rise in Labor’s PV accelerates and consolidates, that the PVs going to Labor’s biggest competitors, the LRP and the Greens, continue to shrink, and that the prefs from the “other” choices follow the PV tide and flow to Labor. This would be the change election for which I hope. But it’s not a done deal just yet.