Not only has the campaign been light on for published polling, which these days is par for the course in elections for the smaller states, but there has also been next to nothing in the news media about internal polling or how insiders think specific seats are playing out. Which leaves:
• Labor’s efforts to win the favour of Liberal-turned-independent member Dan Cregan at least make it clear that they expect him to retain his Adelaide Hills seat of Kavel. David Penberthy in The Australian reports that, “of the four former Liberal independents in the SA parliament, Mr Cregan is regarded as the least indebted to his former party and the most likely to side with Labor”. It has duly showered his electorate with such promises as a $220 million hospital for rapidly growing Mount Barker. The Liberals have made fairly extensive promises for the electorate of their own, but have preferred making an issue of Labor’s “extravagance” to matching them.
• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Advance Australia, a conservative activist group that has also been in the news for advertising crudely linking federal Labor to China, has seen fit to conduct push-polling targeting Heather Holmes-Ross, Mitcham mayor and independent candidate for Waite. The seat is held by Sam Duluk, another of the election’s Liberal-turned-independent incumbents. Nonetheless, the report relates that “major party insiders are sceptical of Holmes-Ross’s chances”.
• Antony Green has a blog post on the rate of pre-poll and postal voting, for which there were respectively 86,515 cast and 149,670 applications received as of Saturday. Elizabeth Henson of The Advertiser reports the former is double the total from the equivalent period in 2018; Antony Green notes the latter figure is 11.8% of the total enrolment compared with an overall total of 6.8%, although it has less room to grow from this point than pre-polls since applications close on Wednesday. In any case, it can conservatively be estimated that their combined number will double this time. Taking into account a further 100,000 or so absent votes, this means maybe 600,000 out of a total of 1,100,000 will be available to be counted on the night, with none of the pre-polls or absents to be counted until Monday.