Essential Research released its fortnightly poll yesterday, the headline “2PP+” reading of which had Labor on 49% (steady), the Coalition on 44% (down one) and undecided 7% (down one). Labor’s marginal improvement was in fact down to better preference flows, since it was down three points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party is steady on 3%, One Nation down two to 3%, others steady on 4%, and undecided up one to 7%. Labor did notably less well on the Queensland breakdown than last time, their primary vote down ten points to 29% with the Coalition up six to 40%.
Further questions record no advantage for the government on handling of the Ukraine onflict, with the Coalition and Labor tied at 24% on best party to handle, and 33% reckoning there to be no difference. Fifty-eight per cent support Australian financial support to supply weapons to Ukraine, with only 15% opposed, and 68% support additional refugee and humanitarian places for arrivals from Ukraine, with 10% opposed.
An occasional question on whether the government deserves to be re-elected finds an ongoing trend against the government, with 32% holding that view, down two on November, and a three point increase to 48% for the alternative proposition that it’s “time to give someone else a go”. A series of questions on gender equality, presumably to tie in with International Women’s Day, finds 67% believe there is still a long way to go on gender equality, although it seems question wording weighs heavily on such findings, since 48% also agreed gender equality had come far enough already.
The regular questions on COVID-19 management find the federal government’s ratings little changed, with approval down one to 39% and disapproval up one to 35%. The small-sample state government results find the Western Australia government back up by seven points to 71%, ahead of South Australia on 58%, Queensland on 51%, New South Wales on 46% and Victoria on 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.
Morrison: Many days late and many dollars short. Probably any assistance will come with Liberal party branding.
“Getting my head around Saudi, Iran, Venezuela being elevated to great guys.
Wonder how China are gaming this all out… what is their optimal outcome?”
I’ll leave Venezuela to the side, but Saudi and Iran will never ever be good guys any more than Liz Cheney could be.
I think for China it is perfect, sitting back not attacking anyone will deliver them far more than anything else. A return to the donald or as stupid as donald as leader, Europe wrecked by war and an ongoing refugee crisis of very hard to imagine magnitude leaves China in a very very very nice position indeed. It’s oligarchs will still be embraced in London, maybe more so than before, the Russian kind they still embrace, but in a ‘we can’t talk about it’ way.
I’m quite concerned about that Queensland polling drop off. Anyone got any theories or intel? I saw earlier comment re perhaps being disappointed by state and local responses to flooding crisis and taking it out on federal ALP, but that doesn’t quite gel with me. Have spoken to one ALP candidate and he feels he was tracking well until the floods, when the LNP incumbent in his seat presented as the knight in shining armour, springing to rescue with substantial resources and on-the-ground support. ie the crisis is giving incumbents the opportunity to step up, and this is playing out well at the local level. Any other thoughts and theories?
“ Getting my head around Saudi, Iran, Venezuela being elevated to great guys.”
C@t can – and will explain it all to you. Don’t ask too many questions though, or accusations of engaging in anti-eastern hyperbowl [sic], being a quisling, or an appeaser are likely to follow. Dare to push back at all and C@t’s lament for the lack of women posting on the blog will pop up quixotically.
“ Wonder how China are gaming this all out… what is their optimal outcome?”
Boerwar has entered the conversation.
Re the army deployment.
You have to keep them busy.
Have a nephew in army up in Townsville.
Has told me many a time they do all kinds of shit ,just to keep busy.
Like having to March out into the middle of know where in a forest at 3am carrying a huge log ,get to destination,then dig a dirty big hole for 4-5hrs then fill it in and March back to the barracks. Hey go figure.
Or some more meaning less tasks over the year ,because if they are not deployed overseas at a war or peace keeping mission,they have to be occupied.
So helping flood relief,gives them something to do.
citizensays:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 10:18 am
Morrison: Many days late and many dollars short. Probably any assistance will come with Liberal party branding.
_____________________________________
I’m expecting a big novelty cheque – they love those things…
The Guardian piece is actually quite limited.
Most of these ‘war games’ are based on assumptions, as any are. So far, most of the assumptions about this invasion have been completely wrong. Based on what I know, which is no more than anyone else, the conclusions are reasonable, based on his underlying assumptions. Even if I think there are more potential outcomes than the article suggests.
Once it was clear Putin’s lightning gamble had failed, it was going to be a race whether the sanctions would be strong enough and immediate enough versus the impact of Putin’s likely shift to urban bombardment.
One of the reasons why there’s increasing intel about a move on Kyiv, is not from a place of strength, but weakness. The best chance Russia has is to actually win something of value to Ukraine and they do not have the capacity to withstand long-standing guerrilla urban warfare across a country as large as Ukraine.
Griff
Case count in nsw up 30-40% presumably thru mask mandate lifting… just seems 13000 is the 100 of 6 months ago, esp if hospitalisations are low
Rain and ukraine completely overtaken it all?
When petrol breaches $2/litre i suspect it drowns out all before it
Not suggesting that all past misdeeds get forgiven etc, but new crises give ScoMo an opportunity that Albo has to prove effective against?
Painting him as a say anything stand for nothing no real idea or plan is the right and truthful play… ideally need to show at the same time that you have a plan.
Long term productivity etc is all good stuff, but they need to cover off on oil + gas for sure?
The optics are terrible for Morrison. He did nothing while Qld was drowning, he did nothing for Lismore initially and then sent the troops in who immediately decided a photo op was the priority.
Well over a week later and the rain has hit Sydney, NOW he decides the NSW floods are a national emergency?
I can say, and I think I might speak for a significant number of Queenslanders here, that Scott Morrison can blow it up his Khyber pass.
“Painting him as a say anything stand for nothing no real idea or plan is the right and truthful play… ideally need to show at the same time that you have a plan.”
I think Morrison’s real problem is that he has locked this imagine in, and nothing Albo on the one side or Murdoch, Stokes and the LNP trolls at CostelloTV can do to shift it.
“jt1983says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 10:25 am
The Guardian piece is actually quite limited.’
Agree. It was as thin as the way my Auntie Toohey spread butter during the post war years, so I am told (and she was a pretend Auntie anyway).
For starters, it did not address the likelihood of any puppet administration succeeding
‘jt1983 says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 10:25 am
The Guardian piece is actually quite limited.
Most of these ‘war games’ are based on assumptions, as any are. So far, most of the assumptions about this invasion have been completely wrong. Based on what I know, which is no more than anyone else, the conclusions are reasonable, based on his underlying assumptions. Even if I think there are more potential outcomes than the article suggests.
Once it was clear Putin’s lightning gamble had failed, it was going to be a race whether the sanctions would be strong enough and immediate enough versus the impact of Putin’s likely shift to urban bombardment.
One of the reasons why there’s increasing intel about a move on Kyiv, is not from a place of strength, but weakness. The best chance Russia has is to actually win something of value to Ukraine and they do not have the capacity to withstand long-standing guerrilla urban warfare across a country as large as Ukraine.’
—————————————
He spells out his key assumptions.
He states directly that there are endless possible branches to the scenarios.
He then works around the most probable scenarios.
What I liked about the article is that it is 100% free from the propaganda that fills our MSM about Putin’s War, up to and including Morrison’s grandstanding on same.
Sohar says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 8:15 am
This Essential poll seems bizarre in the light of other polls and current events. Some staff must be embarrassed to work there.
If Labor’s PV is actually 36% at present they will most likely lose the election. Labor’s core PV needs to be in the high 30s at least. All the usual Labor-hostile forces are currently campaigning to erode that PV. With a PV on 36%, Labor’s chances are at the very best less than 50/50.
The coalition should be considered favourites for a win – however narrow – at this point. This Essential poll is consistent with coalition victory.
The Under-reactionaries will be loving the atrophy in the Labor vote. They will have their hearts beating fast for political extortion….lusting to blackmailing a Labor minority. If there is even the slightest sense in the electorate that this could occur, the Reactionaries will score an increase in their vote and take a few more seats from among Labor’s many marginals.
I’ve made this same point many times. Perhaps I should change my nym to Wayne B.
@Shellbell – basically – a puppet regime without a SIGNIFICIANT Russian military occupation, in this environment, has a lifespan estimated in days.
@Blud… the 36%PV is talking about Qld, not national. But I do think Labor would still win nationally with a 36% PV, but it would be a squeaker.
From the Guardian Blog
The high court this morning has pronounced orders in the Liberal Democrats challenge against an electoral law allowing older registered political parties to block newer parties from using words in their name that they have in common.
A majority of the justices held that none of the provisions were invalid – meaning the Liberal Democrats will be unable to use the word “Liberal” on the 2022 election ballot.
The Liberal Democrats had argued the provisions breached the implied freedom of political communication, and the constitutional guarantee that MPs are “directly chosen” by electors. Since the case was urgent, we’ve only got a result without written judgments.
On Friday the Australian Electoral Commission moved to deregister the Democratic Labour party, finding there were reasonable grounds to believe the party does not have the required 1,500 members.
Last year, Labor voted with the Coalitionto pass the law raising the threshold to 1,500 and allowing older parties to block common words in a bid to prevent voter confusion.
Putin’s War?
China is doing its best to look invisible.
Boerwar
“It is becoming increasing clear that Russian Light Mobile Forces which ran ahead of the heavy elements of the Russian Army were quite often slaughtered. This was especially the case where they ran ahead of air cover.”
you just can’t help yourself.
You literally make shit up and then proudly proclaim proof.
Show us the proof that it was Light mobile Forces that ran ahead.
It’s just rubbish, YET AGAIN.
Made up crap YET AGAIN, because you have some bizarre obsession with the Greens.
Next you’ll be telling us how successful the convoy is and how that shows the superior logistics of the Russians… Remember that?
Anyway, The Greens won’t be spending money on stuff we don’t need, don’t use and will use that money for something important.
No live LNL tonight:
Phillip Adams
@PhillipAdams_1
Huge pothole on New England Highway blew front tyre. 90 minutes waiting for NRMA to answer phone. Endless recorded messages- repeatedly dumped to the end of the queue. Now sitting in the rain trying to rent a tow truck. Wont be on air tonight.
12:56 PM · Mar 8, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
jt1983, more extrapolating from the article than lauding it per se…
I have no doubt Putin will take Kiev… but thats just the start of a 5 year phase of who does what next etc
A race between russian economic collapse and western economic crisis unless a deal is made (which of course would be a potentially untenable win for Putin)
rhwombat
Thanks for feedback.
I’m thinking Mask mandates should still be in place.
Essential don’t distribute the not sures and refuse to answers of which there are 7% in the sample. Thus Labor’s Primary is 36/93 which equates to about 38.7%.
“Putin’s War?
China is doing its best to look invisible.”
Comedy gold.
John Bolton was more interested in his book than doing his bloody job.
——–
David Corn
Don’t miss this part of the story: @AmbJohnBolton says he’s sitting on a big secret about Trump asking China to help him win reelection. The Trump White House claimed it was classified and wouldn’t let him disclose it in his book.
https://t.co/mRKfeJAlI1
Regarding the COVID numbers in NSW and Victoria.
My folks were due to attend a Midnight Oil concert in Melbourne this evening which was cancelled early this morning due to one of the band members contracting COVID.
COVID is ripping through the younger folk. My daughter who is 26 and works in an office in Camberwell has had three outbreaks so far this year. Everyone is back wearing masks indoors at the office and they have created two ‘bubbles’ – Monday to Tuesday, Thursday to Friday with Wednesday all staff working remotely and the office deep cleaned.
I think that NSW will shortly experience a 5th wave thanks in part to the devastating floods. We are yet to see the long term scenario in WA but on current projections it is not good… expect to see many businesses forced to close due to staff being sick and in ISO and / or the government contemplating another hard lockdown.
Europe is in a troubling scenario. With lots of people moving around to escape the Russian attacks expect to see spikes in various neighbouring countries. Ukraine may very well be brought to her knees due to COVID running rampant and the already stretched emergency / disaster relief services collapsing.
Truly depressing times.
I must say walking around Melbourne there is a sense of increasing despair and despondency amongst the population. There is not much hope.
Bludging, I made the ‘bizarre’ comment re Essential after only seeing William’s 49 libs 45 Labor headline. It has since been fixed. That said, I don’t have much time for Essential as a polling outfit.
Vale the Liberal Democrats
There are all sorts of scenarios he didn’t mention other than that there are all sorts of scenarios.
One is that a rump Ukraine with bits chopped off for Russia, the statelets, Belarus, the Republic of Tansnistria and a possible new state of Russo-Ukraine, is allowed to fend for itself.
One useful aspect of the article is that it focused on what things might look like at the end of Putin’s War.
He also, rightly, pointed out that there is a significant unknown in Putin’s War. It has two elements. The first is the home population views of the democracies during Putin’s War. The second is the soul searching and response that would go with Putin ending up dominating Ukraine-as-was.
I notice that there are various comments on a guerilla wars. I suspect that while we expected the West to more or less obey the rules of war with respect to civilian casualties, we should realize that Putin won’t. If there is a local guerilla attack IMO he would not hesitate to kill or deport whole villages.
The other element that needs to be considered is that there will be substantial element in the old Ukraine who would see no particular difference or perhaps even a benefit to being ruled by Russia.
The war Xi forgot to come to.
Great to have some comedy relief in dark times. I think psychologically a new variant, slightly more deadly, immune to the vaccines, but as good as spreading as omicron, emerging about now would be a devastating a blow as the globe could get.
I’m not sure why the Liberals wanted to sideline the Liberal Democrats, as they always supported the conservative side anyway.
Expat
I believe your consideration of the economic impacts of Putin’s War were insufficiently addressed in the article we are discussing.
Astrobleme
You do understand that in the history of modern warfare the preponderance of battle outcomes favour heavy forces against light mobile forces?
Sohar @ #127 Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 – 10:49 am
They siphoned senate votes from people who don’t read carefully.
Expat Follower says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 10:41 am
….A race between russian economic collapse and western economic crisis
The conflict in Ukraine cannot of itself provoke a ‘western economic crisis’. The west-centred economy is just far too large and resilient for Russia to present a problem. The Russian economy could shrink to nothing and it would barely register on the total value of production in the world economy.
Russia is important to its neighbours. But these countries/economies are not orphans. They can look elsewhere for materials, resources, economic partners of all kinds.
Russia has taken steps to becoming another North Korea….an excluded state, a pariah. If they do occupy and subjugate Ukraine, Russia’s return to prosperity will depend on their willingness to surrender their trophy.
How is it possible to maintain this level of incompetence year in year out?…
Sydney Harbour has been ruled out as a site for the proposed new base for Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines, with officials insisting it was not viable because of “limitations on berth space and shore facilities”.
Questions have been raised about how the Morrison government settled on the three potential sites it announced this week – Port Kembla in Wollongong, Newcastle and Brisbane – given that these were not among the top five options listed in a previous Defence review.
A 2011 Defence report ranked potential options for a new east coast home port for submarines. The top three options were in Sydney Harbour, followed by two options in Jervis Bay, south of Sydney.
Dept of Defence should be abolished & subcontracted out to Sweden.
Reason for not using Sydney “appears” to be base on objective grounds.. while Defence Report recommends Sydney on one assumes to be objective grounds
The Liberal Democrats have lost their challenge to the party names rules.
“A majority of the justices held that none of the provisions were invalid”
“The high court this morning has pronounced orders in the Liberal Democrats’ challenge against an electoral law allowing older registered political parties to block newer parties from using words in their name that they have in common.”
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
The Liberal Democrats have an existing application to change their name to Liberty and Democracy Party which will probably be approved in the near future.
Looks like there’s another Omicrom wave on the go in NSW.
https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW_linear.svg
BW,
Agreed.
I hope this means you are walking back from your strident position of yesterday, regarding support for flood-prone property owners to relocate or transfer their assets.
The Liberal Democrats could just change their name to The Coalition or something couldn’t they?
Boerwar
“You do understand that in the history of modern warfare the preponderance of battle outcomes favour heavy forces against light mobile forces?”
boy well, they’re some fancy words… But I disagree. It’s airpower.
BUT there have been many recent wars where this has not been the case.
But the REALLY dumb thing about your argument is that Australia has never had ‘heavy forces’ and likely never will. Our current forces are light and mobile, like the ones you disparage in Russia.
How on Earth would Australia ever have the army you so crave? It’s nonsense to have one. what would we do with a ‘heavy force’ anyway?
Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 10:39 am
The Greens subscribe to a policy of disarmed neutrality. This is not a defence policy. It is a policy for the abolition of defence. This is just wrong on so many levels.
Nevertheless, the Reactionaries will welcome it. The Green ‘commitment’ will help keep the Reactionaries in power.
Well done the Greens!
A 2011 Defence report ranked potential options for a new east coast home port for submarines. The top three options were in Sydney Harbour, followed by two options in Jervis Bay, south of Sydney.
I should go into Consulting. 😉
So, that’s the end of the DLP then as well? Good.
Parliamentary library webinar, ‘Does political polling deserve our trust’ has just commenced.
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
The Liberal Democrats have an existing application to change their name to Liberty and Democracy Party which will probably be approved in the near future.
So another illogical ruling from the Unlearned Judges .. that means you can’t use word Democrats ?
No Social Democrats, Cristian Democrats….. or Democrat Democrats.
then no Party Party, Sex Party …
Edit & how long did it take to get this ruling?
There is only one reason Morrison held off a week to declare a national emergency- he was stuck at home with Covid and could not organise a dramatic, fly-in press conference to claim credit for everything.
He is so predictable.
Variants of ‘democratic’ etc. are all permissable, as is anything ‘Australia’ or ‘Australian’ or a geographic place in Australia.
The DLP – one in a long line of Splitters – have ceased to exist. But the Reactionaries have an even more effective ally these days – the Greens. The Greens have mastered the art of playing alongside the Reactionaries in order to defeat Labor.
Between them, the Reactionaries and the Under-Reactionaries will likely ensure Labor never again win a Federal election.
The consequences are there for all to see – rule by the most incompetent, corrupt, escapist, reactionary, ideological and theological governments since Federation.
Bludging
The impact of a western blockade of russian oil/gas is contemplated in several guardian pieces today
Especially in the EU, but if the impact here is $2.50/L or $6/gallon in the usa then i wouldnt be ruling out worlwide recession
In the meantime, Ukraine is going to fall in the regime sense. Sanctions will hurt Russia but wont topple Putin in the short term, and i would bet on them rebounding on western economies significantly
Victoria :
Nine more people died with COVID in the state and another 7,081 infections were recorded.
That takes active cases in the state to 38,874.
There are 196 people in hospital with the virus, 32 of those are in ICU.
…………………………………………………………………………
NSW :
Another nine people have died with COVID in the state, with 13,179 new infections recorded.
There are 1,038 cases in hospital and 39 of those are in ICU.
Super Trouper says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 10:21 am
I’m quite concerned about that Queensland polling drop off. Anyone got any theories or intel? I saw earlier comment re perhaps being disappointed by state and local responses to flooding crisis and taking it out on federal ALP, but that doesn’t quite gel with me. …. Any other thoughts and theories?
————————
The QLD sample size would be around 200 (as Essential’s national sample was around 1000). I think the margin of error would be around 7% (but am happy to be corrected). If that’s the case a 10% change in ALP primary vote is outside that margin, though the coalition improvement of 6% would be within it. It’s likely that the ALP’s support in QLD has softened somewhat since the last poll but it seems unlikely that it has collapsed dramatically.