EMRS has published its quarterly-or-so poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, which records a sharp downturn for the Liberals after a long period of overwhelming dominance. The party is down eight points on the primary vote since December to 41%, with Labor up five to 31%, the Greens down one to 12% and “others” up four to 16%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier has likewise narrowed, from 59-28 to 52-33. The poll was conducted by phone on Monday and Tuesday last week from a sample of 1000.
While on Tasmanian affairs, it’s worth repeating here that Lara Alexander was sworn in last week as one of the three Liberal members for Bass, having won the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney after her resignation last month. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).
2 comments on “EMRS: Liberal 41, Labor 31, Greens 12 in Tasmania”
Thanks William. A lot of people I spoke with were not happy with Gutwein throwing open the borders in December. Although masks are being eliminated in most places over the next few weeks, most people I know are opting to continue wearing them. Ditto, continuing to work from home when possible.
Interesting commentary from Dr Bonham.
If I read it correctly, there would be some chance on these numbers that the Liberals might end up with 12 seats, with much hinging on whether they can win a 2nd seat in Lyons.
Of course an actual election will involve more variables, especially with the wonderful vagaries of Hare Clarke.