Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 44, undecided 7

A dip in the Labor primary vote in the latest Essential poll, but no indication the Coalition stands to benefit from war in Ukraine.

Essential Research released its fortnightly poll yesterday, the headline “2PP+” reading of which had Labor on 49% (steady), the Coalition on 44% (down one) and undecided 7% (down one). Labor’s marginal improvement was in fact down to better preference flows, since it was down three points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party is steady on 3%, One Nation down two to 3%, others steady on 4%, and undecided up one to 7%. Labor did notably less well on the Queensland breakdown than last time, their primary vote down ten points to 29% with the Coalition up six to 40%.

Further questions record no advantage for the government on handling of the Ukraine onflict, with the Coalition and Labor tied at 24% on best party to handle, and 33% reckoning there to be no difference. Fifty-eight per cent support Australian financial support to supply weapons to Ukraine, with only 15% opposed, and 68% support additional refugee and humanitarian places for arrivals from Ukraine, with 10% opposed.

An occasional question on whether the government deserves to be re-elected finds an ongoing trend against the government, with 32% holding that view, down two on November, and a three point increase to 48% for the alternative proposition that it’s “time to give someone else a go”. A series of questions on gender equality, presumably to tie in with International Women’s Day, finds 67% believe there is still a long way to go on gender equality, although it seems question wording weighs heavily on such findings, since 48% also agreed gender equality had come far enough already.

The regular questions on COVID-19 management find the federal government’s ratings little changed, with approval down one to 39% and disapproval up one to 35%. The small-sample state government results find the Western Australia government back up by seven points to 71%, ahead of South Australia on 58%, Queensland on 51%, New South Wales on 46% and Victoria on 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 44, undecided 7”

Comments Page 2 of 32
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  1. z,

    Incompetence, corruption, lack of empathy and poor leadership are the underpinning themes driving the LNPs problems.

    All they have left is to throw money we don’t have at their alleged supporters.

  2. The J6 insurrection investigation is hotting up.
    ——————-

    Ron Filipkowski
    @RonFilipkowski
    · 2h
    Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio arrested this morning in his underwear in Miami for conspiracy in connection with the J6 insurrection. From NBC6.

  4. Vic,

    It’s wrong. WB is either still asleep or travelling on his way to storm SA.

    He’ll fix it in due course.

  5. NSW Covid numbers are creeping back up. So is the test positivity rate, now over 15% after a couple of weeks below 10%. No doubt the effects of easing restrictions a couple of weeks ago are coming through. Hospitalisations are bumping along below 1,100.

    If it was last year I would say we are starting a 5th wave.

  7. @C@t:

    “ Alexandra Smith reports that Matt Kean has said if Canberra fails to take the lead on affordable childcare, NSW will step in as it did with climate change.”

    Sorry, Matt, but federal Labor beat you to the punch on this one!

    ___________

    1. Federal Labor has done nothing. Because it ain’t in government. Kean has one budget in him as NSW Treasurer before the 2023 State Election – and THAT will be handed down after the federal election i presume. Therefore, the issue of who will end up beating who to the punch is still up for grabs.

    2. At the heart of the Morrison Government is a focus group: so depending on what they are telling ScoMo and Fryboy, who knows? The federal LNP government may end up gazumping both Labor and Kean.

    3. Matt Kean is the NSW Libs and hence 9/Faix’s current ‘designated Bambi’. This is a role that has been created for marketing purposes since 2011. First it was bestowed on Mike Baird, then Berri-Jerry-Can and now Matty. The purpose of the role is convince small ‘L’ Tories that all is right with the world, cause [insert Bambi of the day] cares about [insert hot button or # issue of the day] and therefore it OK to keep voting Liberal and ignore the industrial scale dismantlement of public institutions and public probity in favour of every single spiv developer and chancer that falls in with the swindling machine that is the NSW LNP Government.

    Therefore, as per her script, Alex Smith will write soft piece after soft piece about the current Bambi.

    At the end of the day Kean is a Tory. Just like the rest of them. His ‘koala rescue package’ from two years ago did exactly what it was intended to be: create PR that he, and the Liberal side of the LNP government (including Saint Gladys of immaculate recollection) cared about Koalas and were actively doing something to save them, while actually delivering exactly what rural developers wanted: power devolved to local councils, which in all relevant areas are controlled by either the national party directly or their ‘independent’ developer proxies. The perfect long con. So naturally 9/Faix cheered. Loudly.

  11. Earlwood,
    All that is a given and a known known and it’s exactly why Labor need to get out and proud and reiterate that ‘Bambi’ Kean is too late to THEIR party.

  12. Nostalgic 80’s concensus talk, might help win the election, I’m not sure, we will see. But if it is more than just election silliness and he actually thinks he could govern effectively like that, then he will make the Gillard and Rudd Govts look like political master classes in comparison.

  14. We need several national climate mitigation resets. In major ways the historic settlement patterns are big FAILs in the best of times. Increasingly, climate is crippling their economic survival.
    .
    The national reset needs to start with the 350,000 houses built on 1 in 100 years floodplains.

    We can safely add hundreds of thousands of houses built on coastal sand dunes swamps, mangrove areas and marshlands. The life expectancy for most of these will now inevitably be truncated by rising sea levels and increased incidence of extreme weather events.

    The national want to be near the coast or on a river bank or on a lake needs to be reset.
    Rich or poor, it needs to be one in all in. It needs to be a national effort.
    Innovative thinking is need. Options include building houses floodable houses as concrete boxes on stilts.

    What we can’t allow to happen is:
    (a) individual stories of woe to force us to avoid making a national plan
    (b) the poorest people in our society to get left behind
    (c) special interest screamers (and haven’t they been noisy this past fortnight?) to distort the settlement patterns even further.

    There is absolutely nothing stopping governments from new building long term stay caravan parks above, say, the 7m sea level rise plus and the one in one thousand flood risk. Naturally the caravan parks would NOT be near bushland, rivers or the coast. They would be adjacent to existing robust infrastructure.
    IMO such a system would be the cheapest project of all the projects in the Climate Mitigation Plan.

  15. Steve777 @ #55 Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 – 9:27 am

    NSW Covid numbers are creeping back up. So is the test positivity rate, now over 15% after a couple of weeks below 10%. No doubt the effects of easing restrictions a couple of weeks ago are coming through. Hospitalisations are bumping along below 1,100.

    If it was last year I would say we are starting a 5th wave.

    All we need now is a new Variant which manifests in Europe as a result of the Ukraine War and the mass movement of people. 🙁

  16. QLD ALP numbers dropped and NSW LNP dropped.

    Perhaps both are annoyed with state government response to floods and conflating it with federal politics.

  18. Steve777 @ #55 Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 – 9:27 am

    NSW Covid numbers are creeping back up. So is the test positivity rate, now over 15% after a couple of weeks below 10%. No doubt the effects of easing restrictions a couple of weeks ago are coming through. Hospitalisations are bumping along below 1,100.

    If it was last year I would say we are starting a 5th wave.

    This is the anticipated BA.2 wave in NSW. It has been evident in the persistent numbers (on incomplete case finding) since the BA.1 peak in January, but is is almost certainly going to rise further above the background over the next 3 months, with a consequent slow rise in hospitalisations (but probably fewer deaths). Victoria has one too, but it will be smaller, reflecting a better organised & funded overall health system than NSW.

  20. “ All that is a given and a known known and it’s exactly why Labor need to get out and proud and reiterate that ‘Bambi’ Kean is too late to THEIR party.”

    THAT has been happening ever since the soft pieces on Kean started to flow out of 9/Faix. Of course, it was ignored by the MSM when Jodi was leader.

    A sea change has happened now. At least a bit. Minns is getting soft pieces as well. From what I hear, Richo and others have paved the way with the NSW establishment that Minns’ wont do what Jodi would have done – upturned every stone to expose every dodgy deal done over the previous 12 years of LNP misrule: that his reform program would be modest and it will be ‘business as usual’ for everybody expect for the most egregious pirates – who will be scapegoated to atone for the collective sins of the whole.

    Hence, Minns is the establishment’s ‘Plan B’. If Domicron and Bambi fall flat – and they might just – then the establishment already have an ‘in’ with the next lot. Heck Minns even looks and sounds like Bambi. This is why 9/Faix and the rest of the prestitudes co-ordinated with team Minns from August 2019 when Jodi won the leadership fair and square, because heaven forbid that anybody actually gained power in NSW that would actually – finally – hold the Rum Corp to account.

  21. Look, I get that Matt Kean is Triangulator-In-Chief for the Liberal Party. He’s their little Bambi stalking horse that enables the Liberals to sidle up to a popular Labor policy and nick it off them. So what federal Labor need to do is send out Amanda Rishworth today to call his bluff.

  24. ltepsays:
    Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 9:32 am
    We will forgive you this time Mr Bowe.
    _____________________
    I worry about the mental health of every Bludger who complained.
    Being that hung up on the polls is not healthy.
    They just need to chill out a little bit.

  26. One wonders whether the Greens will now rethink their Light Mobile Force theory. Especially the Greens bit where we no air force.
    It is becoming increasing clear that Russian Light Mobile Forces which ran ahead of the heavy elements of the Russian Army were quite often slaughtered. This was especially the case where they ran ahead of air cover.

  28. Interesting article in the Guardian. Just how do wars end? How do countries extract themselves? He is right in that there are a lot of bad scenarios, and possibly the only good, early exit is an internal Russian solution to Putin then negotiation. The options get worse, fast from that. Ukrainian resistance quickly evaporates due either to superior Russian advance or to protect its civilians from Russian violations. The other options are really messy. I don’t see Putin withdrawing because it gets hard.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/russia-ukraine-war-possible-trajectories?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  29. rhwombat

    So far approx 62 percent of over 18 yo are triple vaxxed in vic.

    NSW not far behind.
    Qld ar 50 percent and other states hovering above 60 percent.

    Will that hold us in good stead going forward?

  31. “Part of a National Climate Change Mitigation Framework is going to have to be a properly resourced and properly paid disaster response organization. This would include rapid rescue response and short term support teams. The latter would provide immediate shelter, documentation, food and health support. Standing social security agencies would, as part of their frameworks, then have long term arrangements for re-housing, etc, as required.”

    Yeah yeah, but who would pay for that?

  34. DM
    First sort out what you need.
    Then you sort out who is going to pay.
    My starting point would be the beneficiaries.
    I would start with a disaster levy on property owners according to a national risk map.
    The risk would include consideration of likelihood and levels of impact.
    For example, we used to pay a flood levy where we lived in West Gippsland.
    None of the property owners batted an eyelid.

  36. Interesting to see on latest vaccination numbers that WA is ahead of the national average on double vaccinations (95%+) and leads the way with triple dose vaccination (66%).

    The border opening was delayed to allow WA to catch up, and WA now had the advantage of high overall vaccination rates as it deals with the first wave of Covid infections, with daily infections now nudging towards 3000.

  37. SK
    By far the best-informed article I have seen on possible scenarios for the Ukraine War. He seems to be saying that he believes that Putin is crazy enough to resort to nuclear warfare.

  38. Adelaide has 3 major advantages over Sydney (at the moment!)

    Its not raining.

    Its the middle of the Adelaide Festival.

    And there’s a good chance on Saturday week that Labor Government would be restored.

  39. “ So what federal Labor need to do is send out Amanda Rishworth today to call his bluff.”

    But if the prestitutes don’t actually report it, would it actually have happened?

  40. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is preparing to declare the NSW floods disaster a national emergency, a move which would trigger more Commonwealth resources including extra help from Defence for communities.

  41. Victoria @ #79 Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 – 9:53 am

    rhwombat

    So far approx 62 percent of over 18 yo are triple vaxxed in vic.

    NSW not far behind.
    Qld ar 50 percent and other states hovering above 60 percent.

    Will that hold us in good stead going forward?

    Not really. Vaccination probably decreases shedding and transmission of BA.2, but does not prevent it. It also has some effect on severity of disease, albeit probably less so than with Delta.

  42. rhwombat @ Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 9:40 am

    Agreed. BA.2 and BA.1.1 coupled with low booster rates and waning immunity (even hybrid immunity). Lack of masks and increased mobility and let’s not forget that winter is coming.

    I am not expecting it to spike hard like BA.1. That is for the next variant 😉

  43. Its amazing to me how quickly things change… this election will likely <5% be about covid, probably dominated by petrol and gas price outlook?

    Would be good if Albo out in front with something sensible and practical on this, leaving ScoMo to flail around madly.

    Libs desperate for a big hooplah budget resetting of things?

    This narrative of desperate flailing say anything otherwise nothing to offer… Albo driving it driving into everyone's consciousness a very sound play. Once accepted broadly, ScoMo is toast.

    Getting there. Budget looms as a hail throw of the dice… Libs going to go populist nuts surely

  44. “One wonders whether the Greens will now rethink their Light Mobile Force theory. Especially the Greens bit where we no air force.
    It is becoming increasing clear that Russian Light Mobile Forces which ran ahead of the heavy elements of the Russian Army were quite often slaughtered. This was especially the case where they ran ahead of air cover.”

    Wouldn’t it be the fate / effectiveness of the Ukranian ‘Light Mobile Force’ that is relevant, or do the warmongers have dreams of invading China and /or where else the pathetic bloodlust takes you?

  46. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44644/poland-agrees-to-turn-over-its-mig-29s-to-the-u-s-after-which-they-could-head-to-ukraine

    Surprise news on the Ukraine. Poles have been denying this for a while. I think the main thing here is that the Poles already fly F16’s and the US can probably replace those Mig 29’s pretty quickly with less advanced, but still NATO std F16’s. Neither Poles nor Ukrainians will need much time to get these aircraft into service, and will already have at least some stocks of spares and weapons in place.

    Transfer is via the US so obviously them going to be the front for dealing with any Russian reaction to it. Maybe they will come back with “well, what about independent Belarus??” when the Russians complain??

    From what i am reading so far, its pretty amazing that the Ukrainians still have any kind of Air force or anti-air capability. Russians have “safe” bases to fly out of in Russia or Belarus and Ukrainian bases are all at risk all the time.

    Lots of different ways this conflict is ramifying. 🙁 And really almost none of them good. Only mid to long term positive that i think may come out of this is more incentive to go renewables for transport / heating fuels. As a resident of the Cave i probably haven’t really had a realistic appreciation of how important gas is for home heating in Europe. Winters cold enough so that a thicker doona and a couple of extra layers dont really cut it. 🙁

  47. Know of people all mid 20’s testing positive in last few days. According to eldest daughter everyone’s getting it in her group. As soon as they relax restrictions it comes roaring back.

  48. Expat Follower @ Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 10:04 am

    The pandemic and the economy are intertwined. It is the ‘response’ to the pandemic that governments get graded on. Economic support is critical. We can see how polls were affected when there was economic support during lockdowns and when there wasn’t.

  49. [‘There is absolutely nothing stopping governments from new building long term stay caravan parks above…’]

    I think you’re onto something here, Boerwar. However, I can tell you with some experience that caravans aren’t suitable for young families. Manufactured homes/mobile homes, though, would be, both of which can be sited in trailer parks.
    _______________________________________

    So Morrison’s going to declare a national emergency today when visiting Lismore. As usual, only acting after being shamed into it.

  50. That Guardian piece is really sobering

    Ukraine falls by Easter?

    Putin increasingly pressured to hold it as Russia’s economy collapses. In the meantime, oil/gas inflation raises economic crisis in the West.

    Next 5 years looks rosy as all hell

    Getting my head around Saudi, Iran, Venezuela being elevated to great guys.

    Wonder how China are gaming this all out… what is their optimal outcome?

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