South Australian election minus eleven days

With less than two weeks to go, such polling as is available doesn’t look good for Steven Marshall in South Australia.

Less than a fortnight to go in what’s been a fairly subdued South Australian election campaign, which has struggled for media oxygen in the face of international events. Early voting is under way as of yesterday, with record numbers of voters assuredly set to avail themselves of that option. A leaders debate will take place on Wednesday, although these tend not to generate a huge amount of public interest these days.

Recent news of note:

• The Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association has been hawking small-sample seat polls by Labor pollster Utting Research, the more notable of which shows Steven Marshall trailing 51-49 in his seat of Dunstan, amounting to a swing against him of over 8%. Primary votes are Liberal 44%, Labor 37% and Greens 12%. The other poll, from the western suburbs seat of Colton, is more in line with expectations: first-term Liberal member Matt Cowdrey leads 55-45, suggesting a very slight swing to Labor, from primary votes of Liberal 47%, Labor 34% and Greens 9% in a three-horse race. Both were automated phone polls with samples of 400, and duly wide margins of error.

• Conservative minor parties are directing preferences to Labor in two of the three most marginal Liberal seats. One Nation, Bob Day’s Australian Family Party and Family First are all directing preferences against Liberal member Richard Harvey in Newland, which he holds on a margin of 0.2%, based on how he voted during the passage of abortion laws last year. The two family parties are likewise directing preferences against Liberal member Paula Leuthen in King, where she is defending a margin of 0.8%.

• Without a huge amount of data to work on, a newly published election forecast model at Armarium Interreta credits Labor with a 64% chance of a parliamentary majority and Liberal with 18%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

63 comments on “South Australian election minus eleven days”

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  1. You are ‘thanking’ the Libs, S.A. voter? I think Labor could point to the huge new Hospital on North Tce, and the new hospital for Mount Barker, (in a Conservative electorate as it is!) I don’t think the Libs. can win on any Health Issue. A far bigger problem for them is the Morrison drag!

  2. Oh! That should read “thinking” not thanking.

    The Libs have had 4 years to fix things but instead cut back health to the bare bones.

    I just think the negative adverts however are working to dent Labor’s chances.

  3. The negative adverts are aided and abbeted by the Advertiser. They have always been pro-Lib but this last week they have gone into full on campaign mode.

  4. Malinauskas wasn’t even in parliament when Labor decided to close the Repat. And the Libs have barely opened it. No surgery just a few aged care beds.

    Malinauskas’ comment to the Young Libs “come on girls” was pretty ordinary. Dumb.

  5. @SA Voter – yes definitely can’t see many positive policies from the Libs…the only one of note that I can recall is that Crystal Lake Recreation Park at Highbury though the land purchase hasn’t been agreed yet…so now it’s an election promise no doubt the land owner will raise the stakes!

    The lack of positive policy will go against the Libs I think as the general mood I feel is that as we move out of the dark days of the pandemic is people want the Government to spend money to fix the health system and improve the state long term with generational change to things like Education. Plus small things like opening Service SA on Saturdays or of course bringing back the Adelaide 500 may sway some to Labor.

    Interesting how some of the big features from both sides of the 2018 election are nowhere to be seen e.g. trams, Council rate capping, shop trading hours

  6. So SA Labor have obviously decided Morrison is their greatest asset. There was a ute driving around the Adelaide CBD today with a giant billboard trailer with Morrison’s snarling face on it, with quotes from the infamous text messages on it (“COMPLETE PSYCHO”, “HYPOCRITE AND LIAR”).

    You’d think the party would be pretty worried federally if his brand is so toxic that he’s being used by the opposition in a state election.

    The CBD is also absolutely blanketed in quite funny but very aggressive anti-LNP corflutes from Labor, basically accusing the Libs of not caring if people die of covid.

    On the other hand, the inner south seems to have been all but abandoned by Labor, loads of fat balding LNP men on stobie poles but very few Labor corflutes. Maybe they have decided not to waste their energy on the Unley set.

    I think Marshall screwed up big time by opening up just as Omicron hit. He went from being perceived as quite independent of Morrison’s federal corruptionfest to being a lackey prepared to sacrifice the state to support his federal overlords. Before that lots of apolitical types had good things to say about him. Now, not so much.

  7. Yes, Labor are most probably not going after the seat of Unley, which the Liberals currently hold with a 2PP margin of 11.5%. There are very few Labor corflutes there for the same reason there are very few Liberal ones in Taylor.

    As for the attacks by the Liberals. I dunno. At the risk of being a bit biased, they seem a bit on the desperate side. Like that sexism thing against Malinauskas just comes across as really nitpicky and desperate. Like when the regulars in the main thread of this site get really worked up over some trivial thing that Morrison said or did. The rest of it is kitchen sink stuff. I hope nobody was under the impression that the Liberals were just going to fold and roll over (and I also hope nobody’s under the impression they’d do that federally if they’re on track for defeat.)

    Of course, without any real objective measure to test this except a fortnight-old poll, there’s no way of saying and I could be talking out of my behind. For all I know, their message is cutting through really well but, from where I sit, it looks like the desperate kitchen sink stuff.

    And, yeah, The Advertiser has just completely taken its mask off at this point. Stop buying copies of that horrible rag. It’s time it went under. Don’t worry, the few good journos there will go to InDaily. As for the rest, Maccas is hiring.

  8. Wat Tyler_says:
    Friday, March 11, 2022 at 12:31 am

    And, yeah, The Advertiser has just completely taken its mask off at this point. Stop buying copies of that horrible rag. It’s time it went under. Don’t worry, the few good journos there will go to InDaily. As for the rest, Maccas is hiring.”

    Macca’s? On the basis that the masses will eat/accept any sort of processed stuff that will do your health no good at all?

    (A little) Harsh …… on Macca’s!!

  9. Marshall has done a Scomo with the announcement of the hydrogen project at Port Bonython. This would potentially include Fortescue Metals and Origin.

    The fundamental problem with this announcement is that the project is not a Liberal party achievement – several State departments must have been involved. Also there can be no scrutiny or questioning of senior public servants in parliament of the facts.

  10. @Evans Parsons – Interesting if Labor picks up those 4 seats and with Florey it will make Dan Cregan a powerful person…presuming Geoff Brock doesn’t get in and the other independents back the Liberals.

    I still think Labor may have a chance in Davenport with a popular candidate and even a slight chance in Dunstan.

    Besides Dan Cregan and Geoff Brock, are Troy Bell and Fraser Ellis the only other independents tracking well at present? I understand that Waite, Hammond and Finniss all have independents that may have a high enough level of support to end up in the 2PP count against the incumbent.

  11. @Samuel – I think likely to be a Liberal retain for both seats, given the strong support of the popular and effective incumbents – the Labor candidates don’t seem to be as active in these two seats as in other seats like Davenport and Dunstan.

    Potentially Black would fall to Labor before Colton and Hartley, given the Labor candidate seems to be fairly active in Black and that David Speirs as the incumbent has made headlines for his fundamentalist Christian connections which may raise some eyebrows within his electorate.

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