The latest fortnightly (consistently so now, it seems) federal voting intention result from Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). It also includes for the first time this term a reading for the United Australia Party, who are at 4%. The leaders’ ratings find Scott Morrison recovering a little, up three on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 55%, but has even more favourable movement for Anthony Albanese, who is up four on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 43%. Albanese has almost closed the gap on preferred prime minister, now trailing 42-40, in from 43-38 last fortnight.
Full report here from The Australian; the poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1525.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1085 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 4:34 pm
Damn those bloody Russians!
BKat 4:59 pm
Well there is ‘Brother Stewie’ and um ah er mmm……….thinking thinking thinking.
Rewi
There were many posts blaming the West for Putin’s behaviour(s).
These same posters could NOT fit this in the pattern of Putin’s behaviours in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Syria, Georgia and Chechnya.
Instead it was the West, the failures of Biden and Blinken, etc, etc, etc,
I could not be bothered with going back and getting them for you.
I must say that since the actual invasion the posters blaming the West for Putin’s behaviour have died right down.
Funny, that.
The smartest piece I heard on the radio was a group that actually analysed PUTIN’S record.
I’ll leave it to you to guess when he acted militarily and when he did not.
Late Risersays:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 4:30 pm
You are missing the point.
Putin had lots of options he could have chosen.
I believe, many of NATO’s choices since the end of the Cold War helped to make, invading the Ukraine, one of them.
Putin chose to invade.
The discussion around NATO is a question of whether they made this situation more or less likely to occur.
Torchbearer @ #1090 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 4:43 pm
Looking at my crystal ball I see a 1/2 senate election coming our way with a PM reset.
The Ukraine railway gauge is the same as the Russian gauge, 4ft 11 and 27/32 inches.
U.S. COVID update:
– New cases: 86,644 ………………………… – New deaths: 2,386
– States reporting: 46/50
– In hospital: 42,641 (-1,893)
– In ICU: 8,248 (-416)
975,150 total deaths now
Grimes at 5:02 pm
It’s the Americans. You know how notoriously crap they are with geography. They mixed up Tas. , Tassie with the Russian news agency Tass. 🙂
The best time for Ukraine to have become a part of the EU and NATO would have been during the reign of the 10th and 13th Prime Minister of Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulia_Tymoshenko
William thanks for the Morgan numbers, which cheer a grey day.
I am starting to think that a “Khaki election” based on a real security threat, rather than an immigration scare campaign dressed up as a bogus threat, may not be as beneficial to the LNP as they hope.
In a real conflict you want an effective non-corrupt government that will deliver and act in the national interest. The current regime scores less than stellar marks on those criteria. Ten years of failure to successfully finish defence projects (or even start the subs) is an indictment of the Liberals. So was Morrison’s mishandling of the AUKUS discussions with France, his lies to Macron, and Dutton’s fiasco of the withdrawal from Kabul. Where are their defence successes, other than future promises?
Encouraging stuff from Morgan there, though would have been nice if they’d bothered releasing it while it was still current.
Re any Western ‘fault’ re Putin’s aggression…
I’ve posted about The End of History crap some Americans went on with when the Soviet Union collapsed. Hubris and arrogance – and no excuse for Putin.
There is a Tom Hanks movie ‘The Castaway.’ His character works for Fedex and has been sent to Russia to show the locals how to run a parcel business. I thought the way his character spoke to Russian workers was arrogant in the extreme.
I suspect a number of Russians may have become pissed off by American condescending arrogance in ‘helping’ Russia transition to the free market. Hard to believe, I know.
Which leads to the next problem: the free market. Some Russians became gazillionaires, many sank into poverty – but poverty minus many of the state services (like health care) provided by the old, repressive Soviet state.
Propaganda opportunity for Putin to fuel nostalgia for older times, led by Tsar Vlad.
None of this excuses Putin. It does serve to show, along with Afghanistan, Iraq and the Arab Spring, America is generally shit at nation-building. Look at their own…
poroti @ #1107 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 5:06 pm
Ahhh,yes I can see how that would happen.
Damn those bloody Gringos!
Someone from Ukraine tweeted that we mistranslated the report – they say convoy is 40 miles from Kyiv (not 40 miles long). It’s only 3 to 4 miles long. Road surrounded by impassable bogs. They can be stopped.
🙂
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-poland-pick-231621686.html
Germany is also donating jet fighter planes. Poland will donate 28 MiG-29s.
NATO AWACS will also be flying over Poland, providing the necessary information.
Pukka at 5.05pm
Russia and Ukraine both use 1524mm (5 foot) gauge railways.
Boerwar
You keep mentioning Syria. Please explain why you put that on your list of ‘Why Vlad is Bad” ? You preferred the head coppers to win ? How do you feel about the US occupation of Syrian oil fields in relation to the “International Rules Based Order” ? Does this occupation diminish American moral authority ?
If you need a larf look up Condaleeza Rice’s recent appearance on Fox News. Truly lolworthy.
.
FOX NEWS host Harris Faulkner to Condoleezza Rice “When you invade a sovereign nation, that is a war crime”. Rice nods in agreement.
Victoria @ #1114 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 5:11 pm
The locals in the area are also putting up road blocks with old tyres and steel rods. Plus using the Police go to of road spikes to try and stop the trucks carrying fuel for the convoy’s tanks.
Cripes!
Was just talking to a neighbour on the phone for 15 minutes and while chatting watched the rain gauge outside go up 15mm. It’s raining at a millimetre per minute!
Now on 150mm in the last 9 hours.
Drains are so far working bewdafull, but the creek is now only 200mm below overflowing.
The neighbour on the phone said a gale was expected tonight.
Goodness me C@t, donations of fighter planes?
I imagine they need to be Russian types because that’s what Ukrainian pilots would know.
Nevertheless, not a step I expected to see: potential for contested airspace above Russian forces.
bloke interviewed on abc re Ukraine basically says that Russia will most likely revert to bombing the bejesus out of Kiev and other targets.
Scary and very sad
Bushfire Bill at 5.16pm
Just as well a previous PM told us the science behind climate change is crap, otherwise we’d start to think something was going wrong with Mother Earth…
Rewi, I was responding to this.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine
Barney,
Perhaps I *am* missing the point. But even so, in our safe places far removed from consequences, we can entertain that maybe NATO expansion was too slow. If I have understood you correctly you suggest that the discussion around NATO is a question of whether NATO’s actions made Putin’s choice of invading Ukraine more or less likely to be taken.
And the point I am making (clumsily) is that the question “Was NATO was too slow to expand?” isn’t being asked, at least where I’ve been looking.
Snappy Tom @ #1121 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 5:18 pm
You’re absolutely spot on (from the article):
Poland and Slovakia still fly Russian-made planes similar to those used by the Ukrainian air force, meaning the pilots would not need much training if the planes were transferred.
If Russia starts bombing and killing Ukrainian citizens, that amounts to a war crime!
‘Victoria says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:11 pm
Someone from Ukraine tweeted that we mistranslated the report – they say convoy is 40 miles from Kyiv (not 40 miles long). It’s only 3 to 4 miles long. Road surrounded by impassable bogs. They can be stopped.’
—————————————————-
This time of year the bogs are frozen.
I assume that the length of the convoy is (a) not fixed and (b) in any case unreliably reported.
p
Ask the Syrians
Thanks Late Riser.
Yeah, he’s basically saying it’s NATO’s fault, isn’t he.
I’m just not sure what people who have been warning for years that NATO was playing with fire because of all of the deep character flaws Putin has displayed, as Boerwar rightly lists, are supposed to say now.
I mean, don’t Putin’s actions prove them right? It’s not particularly helpful to say ‘I told you so’, but I don’t think its right to say it’s intellectually dishonest. Like I wrote earlier, NATO would have gamed this out as a possible consequence.
I suppose they should just take the silent cold-comfort of thinking to themselves ‘I knew it’.
I dunno.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)
The point with both Putin and Xi is this:
Dictators don’t actually need reasons.
The person who is 100% accountable for the Invasion of Ukraine is Putin.
Simple as that.
All the faffing on about NATO and the EU and Biden encouraging war by stating that the US had intelligence that Putin had decided on war was a herd of unicorns.
It got totally ludicrous when posters started to demand that Biden show the raw data.
As if the raw data was infecting Putin’s fevered brain.
This is 100% Putin’s War. Just like the Taiwan War will be 100% Xi’s War.
Late Risersays:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:24 pm
You neglect the possibility that the NATO expansion east is the cause of Russian disquiet, not the pace of it.
This to me seems the more like case.
Those Morgan state swings (yes I know) if realised, would give the ALP close to 100 seats, with another 20 or so Lib/Nat seats being made marginal.
‘Tis to dream.
Boerwar
Rest assured that I am 100% aware of your opinion and that you are 100% committed to it.
There are very few things in life that I can state with equal confidence.
Grimes: “Damn those bloody Russians!”
It wasn’t Russians, it was someone in Frankston Victoria who didn’t dial before they dug. And, supposedly (I struggle to believe this), at around the same time someone, somewhere in Tasmania also cut a line, but they can’t work out who or why.
These two problems apparently reduced the data flow across Bass Strait by 2/3. It’s slowly coming back to normal now (which is why I have been able to post this.
BB
Nephew in Brissie reckons that the rain sounded like someone was pointing a hose at the windows.
Boerwar @ #1124 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 4:33 pm
More importantly, the convoy is an easy target for airstrikes, cruise missiles, drones, or even moderately accurate artillery fire. Doesn’t matter if it’s 3 miles long, 40, or 400. Densely packed vehicles moving down a road in a straight line is just plain stupid in the days of satellites and drones. Should have A-10’s strafing them all the way from Kyiv to the border.
If Western nations aren’t going to directly participate, they can at least be make sure Ukraine has the capability to do some (preferably all) of those things before the convoy gets an opportunity to fan out.
‘Rewi says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:45 pm
Boerwar
Rest assured that I am 100% aware of your opinion and that you are 100% committed to it.
There are very few things in life that I can state with equal confidence.’
—————————
Thank bloody Christ for that. You had me worried there for a while.
‘a r says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:47 pm
Boerwar @ #1124 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 4:33 pm
I assume that the length of the convoy is (a) not fixed and (b) in any case unreliably reported.
More importantly, the convoy is an easy target for airstrikes, cruise missiles, drones, or even moderately accurate artillery fire. Doesn’t matter if it’s 3 miles long, 40, or 400. Densely packed vehicles moving down a road in a straight line is just plain stupid in the days of satellites and drones. Should have A-10’s strafing them all the way from Kyiv to the border.
If Western nations aren’t going to directly participate, they can at least be make sure Ukraine has the capability to do some (preferably all) of those things before the convoy gets an opportunity to fan out.’
———————————————————-
That fact that this orderly convoy has been tracked for several days tells us something, does it not?
ItzaDream says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 11:47 am
& the Metropol…
New York’s famed opera house, the Metropolitan Opera, announced Sunday that it will suspend its ties to Russian artists and institutions who are allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In an interview with The New York Times Sunday, Gelb added: “It’s terrible that artistic relationships, at least temporarily, are the collateral damage of these actions by Putin.” Gelb did not specify which institutions and artists it intends to suspend from collaborations, but three of the most prominent that have been actively allied with Putin are the Mariinsky (formerly Kirov) Theatre in St. Petersburg; its general and artistic director, the conductor Valery Gergiev, who is also the Met’s former principal guest conductor; and star soprano Anna Netrebko, who appears frequently on the Met’s stage.
Lol
Isnt Grimes of Ukrainian descent?
Gasp, not Netrebko!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0u0M4CMq7uI
“That fact that this orderly convoy has been tracked for several days tells us something, does it not?”
That it’s moving slowly and represents a logistics failure?
Barney, sorry, that is not the point I am making. The point I make (clumsily) is that this other question is not asked. Should perhaps NATO have expanded more quickly? And I am not saying it should have. I don’t know either way. I am simply asking why that question is not included in the analyses. It would make conclusions more believable. That’s why I labelled it intellectually dishonest.
Astrobleme
A single mine, a single AT round, a single 105mm artillery round or a single strafing run by a helicopter or ground attack jet would have stopped the whole convoy.
It is not happening.
What does that tell you?
“A single mine, a single AT round, a single 105mm artillery round or a single strafing run by a helicopter or ground attack jet would have stopped the whole convoy.
It is not happening.
What does that tell you?”
Tells me no one is shooting at it… Possibly because of poor intelligence?
BUT what it doesn’t look like to me is ‘logistics success’ or ‘good organisation’.
Looks like a crowded freeway, looks like they’re trying to hurry materials in and have ended up with a traffic jam.
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:52 pm
Barney, sorry, that is not the point I am making. The point I make (clumsily) is that this other question is not asked. Should perhaps NATO have expanded more quickly? And I am not saying it should have. I don’t know either way. I am simply asking why that question is not included in the analyses. It would make conclusions more believable. That’s why I labelled it intellectually dishonest.
______________________________________
Well I think you made a good point.
All the alternative histories tend to cherry pick events to support the position of the person who advances them, rather than genuinely attempt to look at real alternative histories (for want of a better phrase).
And I’m with this analysis of Boerwar’s:
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:40 pm
The point with both Putin and Xi is this:
Dictators don’t actually need reasons.
The person who is 100% accountable for the Invasion of Ukraine is Putin.
Simple as that.
All the faffing on about NATO and the EU and Biden encouraging war by stating that the US had intelligence that Putin had decided on war was a herd of unicorns.
It got totally ludicrous when posters started to demand that Biden show the raw data.
As if the raw data was infecting Putin’s fevered brain.
Astrobleme says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:58 pm
“A single mine, a single AT round, a single 105mm artillery round or a single strafing run by a helicopter or ground attack jet would have stopped the whole convoy.
It is not happening.
What does that tell you?”
Tells me no one is shooting at it… Possibly because of poor intelligence?
BUT what it doesn’t look like to me is ‘logistics success’ or ‘good organisation’.
Looks like a crowded freeway, looks like they’re trying to hurry materials in and have ended up with a traffic jam.
——————————————–
1. That convoy has been in the western MSM for several days now. So, no, not poor intelligence.
2. Any lengthy convoy that proceeds for several days is an example of logistics success and good organisation.
3. What it looks like is excellent convoy discipline with the unit spacings just so. There is no traffic jam.
My suggestion would be that you get together with Jordan Steele-John and flesh out the Light Mobile Force. It needs far more work than that Russian invasion convoy.
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