The latest fortnightly (consistently so now, it seems) federal voting intention result from Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). It also includes for the first time this term a reading for the United Australia Party, who are at 4%. The leaders’ ratings find Scott Morrison recovering a little, up three on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 55%, but has even more favourable movement for Anthony Albanese, who is up four on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 43%. Albanese has almost closed the gap on preferred prime minister, now trailing 42-40, in from 43-38 last fortnight.
Full report here from The Australian; the poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1525.
Late Risersays:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:52 pm
Lots of questions to be explored.
None of them excuse the course Russia has chosen.
Astrobleme at 5:52 pm
Unless you buy into ‘Russians are stupid brutes’ then it tells me that it has not been attacked and are not too worried that they will be.
German government outlet DW still saying ’40 mile’ convoy. Why they are not using km ?. Miles makes it sound smaller to European ears ?
.
.
Ukraine: 40-mile Russian convoy threatens Kyiv — live updates.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-40-mile-russian-convoy-threatens-kyiv-live-updates/a-60954234
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-40-mile-russian-convoy-threatens-kyiv-live-updates/a-60954234
Boerwar
“3. What it looks like is excellent convoy discipline with the unit spacings just so. There is no traffic jam.
My suggestion would be that you get together with Jordan Steele-John and flesh out the Light Mobile Force. It needs far more work than that Russian invasion convoy.”
What is wrong with you? You have some ridiculous obsession with the Greens, give it a rest.
and yes, clearly you’re the genius, a long convoy OBVIOUSLY means good organisation…
I mean this is genius…
https://twitter.com/ConflicUkraine/status/1498388964172079114
https://twitter.com/ConflicUkraine/status/1498390067768930308
I mean short convoys? Meh useless. Convoys are only really well organised if they’re especially long…
NW Sinny people , start filling sand bags
.
BoM warns Sydney could be next to flood, people in city’s north-west told to ‘prepare now’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/bom-warns-sydney-could-be-next-to-flood/100871070
Poroti
“Unless you buy into ‘Russians are stupid brutes’ then it tells me that it has not been attacked and are not too worried that they will be.”
It’s not dichotomy.
I don’t get that extra long convoys=masterful logistics.
Extra long convoys, to me, show poor planning… Extra long convoys are probably going to move slowly.
strobleme says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 6:10 pm
Boerwar
“3. What it looks like is excellent convoy discipline with the unit spacings just so. There is no traffic jam.
My suggestion would be that you get together with Jordan Steele-John and flesh out the Light Mobile Force. It needs far more work than that Russian invasion convoy.”
What is wrong with you? You have some ridiculous obsession with the Greens, give it a rest.
….’
————————–
I will when the Greens Spokesperson for Disarmament (sic) lets Australians into the secret of how the Greens are going to spend 1% of GDP. I will let it rest when the Greens spell out what their ‘Light Mobile Force’ looks like. Let me know when the Greens table something would you?
poroti
What it tells me is the initial deployment of the Ukraine Army was faulty.
Anybody who has been stuck behind even three caravanners making the 85kmh trek to Broome on WA’s Brand Highway knows how convoys don’t work.
R
lol.
autocrat says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Those Morgan state swings (yes I know) if realised, would give the ALP close to 100 seats, with another 20 or so Lib/Nat seats being made marginal.
‘Tis to dream.
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The State breakdowns will have a larger margin of error but I particularly liked the 75/25 2PP split with a 19% swing in favour of the ALP in Tassie. Though if you’re going to have a 19% swing it’s a bit wasted in Tassie….
——————————-
The ALP’s lead in NSW has been cut since mid-February with the ALP now on 56.5% (down 2.5% points since mid-February) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (up 2.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has increased its lead in Victoria and is now on 60% (up 2.5% points since mid-February) compared to the L-NP on 40% (down 2.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The two parties are ‘dead-even’ in Queensland with the L-NP on 50% (up 1.5% points since mid-February) level with the ALP on 50% (down 1.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Western Australia has been trimmed slightly again with the ALP on 52% (down 1.5% points since mid-February) cf. L-NP 48% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 7.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In South Australia the ALP is on 59.5% (unchanged since mid-February) well ahead of the L-NP on 40.5% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a large swing of 8.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 75% cf. L-NP 25%, representing a large swing of 19% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
max says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 6:15 pm
….
The State breakdowns will have a larger margin of error but I particularly liked the 75/25 2PP split with a 19% swing in favour of the ALP in Tassie.
….’
———————————
I would take that with a grain of salt, a bottle of wine and a belly laugh.
Boerwar
“I will when the Greens Spokesperson for Disarmament (sic) lets Australians into the secret of how the Greens are going to spend 1% of GDP. I will let it rest when the Greens spell out what their ‘Light Mobile Force’ looks like. Let me know when the Greens table something would you?”
Why are you whining to me about this? Why do you keep changing the subject?
And you refuse to explain how the ALP will spend their money? Bit rich of you to complain the Greens won’t explain it…
I am not whining at all, A. That is projection on your part, I am afraid.
I am demanding that the Greens put some meat on their policy to unilaterally disarm Australia and to tell our only real military ally to bugger off.
In the interim, IMO, the Greens have ZERO standing to comment on defence matters.
Chicken/Egg? What came first? Places like Georgia and Ukraine wanting closer ties with Europe and even Nato; or Russian interference and aggression in those places?
IMO, these buffer countries wanted nothing more than security and independence. Not all within them, but the majority. They certainly didnt want a return to the cold war era and be on the wrong side of a curtain.
Putin played a poor game. A losing game. And to compensate he got desperate with old cards.
Russias sovereignty and borders were never under threat from the outside. The buffer states would have been happy to stay unaligned if it meant riches thrown to them by both sides. But in Georgia, then Ukraine and the old KGB school meddling in a bunch of other countries everyone could see Putin for what he was. And they rejected it. Had he left in 2008… who knows…. Russia could have evolved.
Boerwar
“I am demanding that the Greens put some meat on their policy to unilaterally disarm Australia”
Why must you lie? Is your argument so weak?
“the Greens have ZERO standing to comment on defence matters.”
Because you’re the boss?
Putin is genuinely demented. Discuss.
This extreme weather event in the east should be the final political nail in the coffin for Morrison with a swing towards the environmental candidates.
A
No matter how much you wriggle on the Greens Disarmament Policy Hook, there is no escaping the fact that the Greens intend to gut the ADF and to tell our only real military ally to bugger off.
Evan Parsons @ #1126 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 5:32 pm
https://www.axios.com/ukraine-russia-war-crimes-international-court-b01b3aaa-796f-4cab-a0ef-67b5876e5013.html
If these sanctions work enough to end the war, it would spell trouble for arms manufacturers and exporters like Australia.
Non-violent methods of ending wars are of course much more preferable.
Boerwar at 6:13 pm
With so many things happening in so many directions ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ may be more appropriate than ‘wrong’………..in many but not all cases.
That Morgan was taken before the water hit the fan in Queensland and which it is about to in NSW.
“No matter how much you wriggle on the Greens Disarmament Policy Hook, there is no escaping the fact that the Greens intend to gut the ADF and to tell our only real military ally to bugger off.”
This is what the Greens say – happy to present it again:
““The Greens are committed to reducing defence spending, this will make $312 billion available over the next decade for essential services our community needs. We can build 1 million homes, ending homelessness. We could improve ventilation in schools, making our kids safe. We could get dental and mental health into Medicare. We could increase income support so no one in the country needs to live in poverty.
“Our Australian Greens Towards Peace plan will renegotiate our alliance with the United States, close all foreign military bases in Australia, reduce defence spending and prioritise peaceful efforts in our region to tackle the climate crisis.
“As we reflect on the war in Afghanistan, it’s clear there was a complete lack of any overarching strategic objective from the very beginning. It’s been 20 years of bloodshed, trauma, and occupation. And many in our community have expressed deep sadness and anguish at the humanitarian disaster that has unfolded.
“We must never again participate in a colonial war of aggression. Our goal must always be peace.
“Our community does not want our future to be at the behest of the United States of America. The Australian Greens are committed to re-negotiating the ANZUS alliance, we will not proceed with the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal, and we will close all foreign military bases across Australia.
“This is the plan we need to ensure a peaceful future for our country. Our plan will make Australia a better global citizen, and can ensure everyone in our community has what they need to live a good life.”
The details of The Australian Greens plan:
Reduce defence spending to 1% of GDP by 2026 ensuring that Australia has a light, readily deployable, and highly mobile force that is commensurate with our size and location;
Renegotiate the US alliance with the terms of a new relationship focused on making Australia safer and a better global citizen;
Pass War Powers legislation that is currently before the Senate to require Parliamentary approval for decisions that commit Australia to war;
Close all foreign military bases in Australia;
Sign and ratify the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty; and
Ban the development and use of lethal autonomous weapons.”
It’s not disarming Australia, please stop spreading FUD.
It’s about not wasting money on crap we don’t need and don’t use.
It’s about not getting into stupid wars like Iraq and Afghanistan, like Vietnam…
It’s about helping people that need help.
It’s about improving relations with neighbours.
It’s not about big toys for sooks.
Ukraine Defence Minister:
Oleksii Reznikov@oleksiireznikov·13h
An important meeting in #Poland with the high-level delegation led by @michaldworczyk. Thanks to all Polish people for their important & powerful support they provide! I would also like to thank @mblaszczak for the help on his direction of work. For your and our freedom!
Plans are being hatched.
I think I heard reported that the convoy was 100 km long.
Maybe Lydia Spivak’s great grand daughter is directing it, in which case it will probably get there.
Rex
“This extreme weather event in the east should be the final political nail in the coffin for Morrison with a swing towards the environmental candidates.”
I hope your right and it certainly won’t help Morrison. I see several anti-Liberal themes it plays to:
– failure to take action on causes of climate change
– failure to prepare for climate change risks (e.g. Lismore flood defenses)
– politicisation of grant allocations (e.g. everywhere else that did get flood funding)
‘poroti says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 6:27 pm
Boerwar at 6:13 pm
With so many things happening in so many directions ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ may be more appropriate than ‘wrong’………..in many but not all cases.’
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My wild guess is that they were mainly deployed to contain the rebs in the Donbas. Reading between the lines, my other wild guess is that they were quite good at giving the Light Mobile Force Donbas rebs a pasting when the latter crossed the border. (Greens note!). The sceptic in me wondered whether Putin had first urged his little Donbas helpers to cross the LOC, thereby engaging and distracting the Ukraine Army while the Russian real thing crossed the border in other places.
But what would I know?
Except that for 2.5 days a convoy variously reported to be 7km to 64km in length has been on that road without the slightest hint that even a single Ukraine spetsnatz unit had put some nasties in the road bed.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/27/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-6/comment-page-23/#comment-3831489
IFF.
Also noted NATO AWACS etc …, let’s see a no fly zone is next.
NATO stealth fighters, well it’d be like clubbing baby seals?
After all if Putin claims this was about safeguarding ethnic Russians, well then Ukraine’s asks for assistance …
PM-elect Albanese should be planning Australia’s transition away from enabling the worlds biggest emitters with our fossil fuels and also enabling the violent aggressors with our weapons exports.
When asked what the Greens will actually put into their gutted ADF, Astrobleme says:
…
It’s not about big toys for sooks.’
———————-
So there you have it, folks, the Greens policy on disarming Australia and telling our only military ally (not counting New Zealand) to bugger off.
You might think that Astrobleme is an extreme Green in this matter but Astrobleme is actually quite representative of the Greens in this matter.
Vladimir Putin is going to regret giving the Ukrainian Military 8 years to hone their skills in the Donbas.
VCT Et3e says:
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 6:33 pm
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/27/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-6/comment-page-23/#comment-3831489
IFF.
Also noted NATO AWACS etc …, let’s see a no fly zone is next.
NATO stealth fighters, well it’d be like clubbing baby seals?
After all if Putin claims this was about safeguarding ethnic Russians, well then Ukraine’s asks for assistance …
————————————
I don’t see the slightest hint by any of the NATO countries that they want to fight Russia.
“So there you have it, folks, the Greens policy on disarming Australia and telling our only military ally (not counting New Zealand) to bugger off.
You might think that Astrobleme is an extreme Green in this matter but Astrobleme is actually quite representative of the Greens in this matter.”
So, there you have it. Boerwar simply spreads lies, rather than actually discussing things. Too lazy to actually investigate he relies on misinformation and declarations of ‘truthiness’.
Do you lie about this because of fear?
Boerwar at 6:33 pm
Re the Donbas ‘rebels’ . If the maps I’ve seen are true the Ukraine army fighting the ‘rebels’ may be in big trouble. Russian forces coming from the north and south behind the Donbas ‘front lines’ could be only a couple of days away from ‘kettling’ the Ukraine army. Which , if it happens, would be a disaster .
Boerwar @ #1170 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 5:21 pm
He gets to be whatever he wants to be, at least until Western nations grow a pair and get off of their “we won’t fight Putin, even when he literally starts a war” kick.
Which comedian would you prefer as Australian Primeminister?
Dead heat between Garry McDonald and Rob Sitch I reckon.
I follow this UK vlogger, Bald and Bankrupt – his speciality is former USSR.
Stuck in Kiev, he tries to escape to the West. Worth watching…
https://youtu.be/hzBxFH_hEwA
Astrobleme
“The details of The Australian Greens plan:
Reduce defence spending to 1% of GDP by 2026 ensuring that Australia has a light, readily deployable, and highly mobile force that is commensurate with our size and location;
and
Close all foreign military bases in Australia;”
I generally support the Greens and try to avoid the Labor/Greens wars on this blog as being futile and counter-productive. However I do have some basic concerns about the Greens’ defence policy. I think it requires revision in the current climate, or it will damage the Greens at the next election.
1. Australia’s defence spending is now just over 2% of GDP, and 35% of that is acquisition of new weapons, ships, planes etc. The remaining 65% (i.e. over 1.3% of GDP) is on the defence workforce, which includes both uniformed ADF personnel, DSTO and people who maintain equipment etc. So in reducing defence spending to 1%, the Greens would need to cut the defence workforce by a third, even if no new “light” equipment was bought. That is at least 20,000 jobs lost. I think that is untenable at present.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/DefenceAReport19-20/Report/section?id=committees%2Freportjnt%2F024803%2F77865
2. Foreign military bases in Australia are all on long term (30+ years) leases. We can’t just close them; they have rights even as tennants.
IMO these sorts of policies need to be modified more like this at least in the short term:
1. Greens will reduce defence spending to 1.5% of GDP, (comparable to mid range countries like Canada and France) and will reduce foreign weapons purchases
2. The Greens will not extend the leases of foreign military bases in Australia, and will close them when current leases expire.
Also, for the record, I am against policy 2 anyway. Australian naval units now use the communication facilities like Pine Gap to remain in contact when at sea, even on peaceful missions like survey.
So I understand the motivations, but think the specifics of some of the Greens defence policy are very impractical, and will never gain bipartisan support.
And of course, I support Australia building SSNs now, due to the rise of the Chinese navy.
Apparently a few things are visible from space, like the pyramids, Amazon, Grand Canyon …, the balls of Ukraine’s Prez …
A R
“He gets to be whatever he wants to be, at least until Western nations grow a pair and get off of their “we won’t fight Putin, even when he literally starts a war” kick.”
So why do you think Western Nations are averse to fighting? Is it really because they ‘don’t have a pair’?
Or might there be a more considered reason?
Boerwar at 6:39 pm
That is one point on which Biden has been very clear for some time. Clear enough to ensure there is no chance of misinterpreting what he has said or ‘wriggle room’ .
.
.
The line Biden won’t cross on Ukraine
Biden ……………. also recently warned that he won’t send U.S. troops to evacuate Americans stuck in Ukraine, citing the risk of a clash.
“That’s a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another,” Biden explained in an interview that aired earlier this month with NBC News’ Lester Holt…………..Biden once again stressed: “These are totally defensive moves on our part. We have no intention of fighting Russia.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/biden-troops-russia-ukraine-00011049
PM has to be Jim Jefferies
Leon
Hannah Gadsby any day of the week.
Thinking of our PBers who are caught up in this flooding event. The images on the news look truly frightening, and apparently there are many people in Lismore and surrounds who are unaccounted for.
The rain forecast for Sydney the next 24 hours is 250+mm. That’s like a couple months rain in a day and a night!
Leon at 6:50 pm
Vote 1 Max Gillies 🙂
The Gillies Report 17 – PM Interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrZy8ornRxQ
Socrates
Thanks for the intelligent reply!
“IMO these sorts of policies need to be modified more like this at least in the short term:
1. Greens will reduce defence spending to 1.5% of GDP, (comparable to mid range countries like Canada and France) and will reduce foreign weapons purchases
2. The Greens will not extend the leases of foreign military bases in Australia, and will close them when current leases expire.
Also, for the record, I am against policy 2 anyway. Australian naval units now use the communication facilities like Pine Gap to remain in contact when at sea, even on peaceful missions like survey.
So I understand the motivations, but think the specifics of some of the Greens defence policy are very impractical, and will never gain bipartisan support.
And of course, I support Australia building SSNs now, due to the rise of the Chinese navy.”
The actual GDP number, from my perspective is not critical. What’s more important is not wasting money of rubbish. Your calculation of what would need to change in order to make those savings is pretty blunt. BUT I agree that the Greens are proposing to reduce the size of the defence force.
Interestingly at the end of that report you linked to was this:
“ADF size
5.39In an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific, the Committee is concerned that as Australia’s main area of geostrategic interest has moved back to our region, the conventional forces of the ADF may not be suitable in size or capabilities to face potential emerging security situations. The Brereton report makes it clear that the bulk of any future major combat operations conducted by Australian forces should be conducted primarily by conventional forces. With a full-time force of only 58,600 (and a much smaller number of front-line combat personnel) the Committee is concerned that the ADF is too small to credibly field sufficient rotational combat forces for protracted high-end combat operations, either as a lead or contributing nation.
5.40 To be able to answer the question as to the adequacy of the size of the ADF, the question must be addressed as to what conflict the ADF is preparing for? Unless the ADF and the Government is able to answer that question, it cannot reasonably determine whether the current size of the ADF is appropriate and to what extent (if any) its numbers should be increased, given the current geostrategic environment.”
So the size is entirely about what we want to do with it.
And note especially this part ” either as a lead or contributing nation”
So the Greens are saying we shouldn’t be a part of expeditions anymore – like a lot of countries. And so in that regard, we could reduce the size. The 1% they are proposing is similar to Japan, and is still a lot of money.
I agree on your comment about point 2, BUT I think the Greens wording is not great and of course, they couldn’t be closed before the lease expires.
Well, sure if you want the subs, you’ll vote for that party. But, I don’t see any value in spending 90 Billion on something that is likely to be never used in defence of Australia.
Boerwar @ #1143 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 4:49 pm
I don’t know. If I understand correctly the orderly convoy has been a short distance from Kyiv for pretty much the entirety of the time it’s been in the news. That’s not very convoy-like of it.
Astrobleme @ #1195 Tuesday, March 1st, 2022 – 5:53 pm
Yes, the first thing. They’re scared. Scared Putin’s nukes. Scared that if things escalate China and North Korea may jump in. Scared of another quagmire like they got in the Middle East. Scared that things will cost more and shares will crash and life will get less convenient.
And those may be reasonable fears. But only up until the point that someone like Putin starts actively exploiting them, as he has done. Then your only options are fight or lose.
Hughesy
Magda Szubanski is my pick. Especially in her character as Sharon 😆