With the closure of nominations on Monday, candidates lists in ballot paper order are now available on my election guide, at least for the lower house, my guide to the upper house still being a work in progress. Details of candidates and parties for the lower house are summarised by blog post by Antony Green. The Greens are unusually sitting it out in four rural seats, One Nation are running in 19 seats, and the Nationals are making their biggest showing in a while with eight. The new incarnation of Family First is putting considerable effort in with 34 candidates, but it faces competition for the “family” vote from the Australian Family Party, associated with former Senator Bob Day.
Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats have drawn top spot on the Legislative Council ticket, just as David Leyonhjelm did when elected to the Senate in New South Wales with 9.5% of the vote in 2013, maximising the party’s windfall from confused Liberal supporters. Others of note include former Labor MP Tom Kenyon at the head of the Family First ticket, Bob Day doing likewise for the Australian Family Party, and Annabel and Greg Digance running jointly on an independent ticket ahead of their looming trial on charges of having attempted to blackmail Peter Malinauskas.
HH
What’s a swarm plot? Is that similar to a Monte Carlo?
Marshall is emailing Dunstan constituents like me to warn us of big-taxing Pete
Sportsbet
Lab 1.65
Lib 2.15
I don’t want to offer a post-mortem of the Government because I think that’s still a little bit premature and counting ones chickens well before they’ve hatched. That said, I want to say how radically different things have changed in the last twelve months where we’re now at the situation of not only discussing the possibility of this Liberal Government being a one-termer but the likelihood of it.
If this election were instead held in March 2021, the conversation would be about this is really just a formality to grant Marshall his second term as Premier. Labor supporters would be desperately nitpicking any issue and commentators would be thoroughly searching for any evidence that it’s more competitive as it seems.
And while it’s easy to just say “Oh that was a COVID bump that wore off” the reality is they could have ridden it to the election, had they not rushed reopening and hesitated to close things just because they were scared of the backlash of making an unpopular decision for Christmas. The day Marshall stopped listening to the expert advice and started yielding instead to the conservatives in his base (especially after the defections), he stopped looking like a leader and started looking like a politician.
Marshall’s biggest strength as Opposition Leader and, dare I say it, as Premier was being the least Liberal Party-like Liberal leader you can find. Don’t get me wrong, he’s no lefty and never pretended to be but the ethos he had always projected is as a pragmatist who is driven by doing what he thinks is best for the state, not ideology. That his conservative views are mainly in the realm of the economic spectrum and came to be due to his business background, not through ideological theory debated among the uni Liberal clubs. Now that facade has cracked. He just comes across as another Liberal but not one strong enough in his convictions to please the conservatives. A good comparison would be Malcolm Turnbull when he was at his weakest.
Holden … interesting post but where do the probabilities come from? Checked the link.but this approach of simulations does. Not se valid
Eg Stuart is 66 % probability.of win.by liberals which seems to.match the 2pp
A80A90says agree with you predictions in the main. I think Labor will also just get Dunstan and also Davenport given the strong local candidate they’ve had embedded there for a fair while now….combined with the fact that this electorate has changed alot geographically and demographicly since the Iain Evans days.
Re the Legislative Council, I’d say 4 Labor, 5 Liberal, 1 Green and 1 Family First. Maybe 1 Liberal Democrat instead of Libs 5th place or FF given Lib Dems A position on the ballot paper and potential name confusion by some voters.
It will be interesting to see the impact of the new planning legislation on voting. Half pages ad in advertiser today from community alliance groups. Plus National Trust and Conservation Council have been active on same and related issues – tree protection, Ayers house eviction. Seats like Dunstan and Waite are likely to see plenty of angst plus around Glenelg and some coastal areas. Labor has been positioning itself a bit on these issues but Malinauskus speech at property council may not have helped. Any analysis on this?
Frances Bedford will win Newland.
Every party is preferencing her above the majors as far as I have seen. Even the ALP have put her at number 2.
She is HUGELY popular in the North East. The only people I’ve ever met who don’t like her are card-carrying members of the Right of the Labor Party, and we all know why they feel that way.
(Poor widdle Jack, cut down in his prime by the nasty old lady who refused to retire when she promised she would. Boo hoo!)
In 2018, I heard all these confected arguments about why either Labor or Liberal were going to knock her off and win Florey. All of them sexist, ageist or deluded in some way.
In the end, she took 19% off the ALP vote, and 20% off the Liberal vote and won comfortably.
Expect much the same in 2022.
Chinda: do you reckon Tessa Kowaliw (the new independent in the re-drawn Florey, with Bedford’s backing) has much of a chance?
I’d be surprised if Family First preferenced Bedford above Labor. Surely Jack Snelling and Tom Kenyon would have a grudge against her. (It’s basically Labor Left vs Labor Right turned up to 11.)
Modbury Man: the LDP donkey vote is a true wild card, as it means they could win the last seat instead of whoever else would’ve got it on three-quarters of a quota, and that could be anyone. Check out South Metro region in WA 2017: the LDP gouged about 3% straight off the Libs (plus their usual 1%), but because that sent the Libs from just over two quotas to just under, it was the Greens who ended up losing. (Glenn Druery’s dirty snowball played its part as well.) In the SA LC, there’s no more GTVs, but 4% is close to half a quota, which puts them in the mix for that last seat.
Good to hear from you Chinda. Newland will be important
Advertiser has been amping up big SA growth targets yesterday and today. Marshall buying in. Not a lot of community support for this stuff.
Chinda63 re Newland I think Olivia Savvas will win it on Bedford’s, Green and maybe other preferences.
I spend alot of this time in the area and know many locals. Frances Bedford hasn’t appeared to have spent much time in the parts of Newland that were not in Florey, such as Hope Valley, St Agnes and Fairview Park. She’s very focused around the Modbury centre itself. Richard Harvey and Olivia Savvas seem to be at either St Agnes Shopping Centre or the Hope Valley Shopping Centre once every few days with various Minsiters or other big party names. A big issue in the northern part of the new Newland area is converting the old Council Wastewater System to SA Water Sewer Mains. Both Libs and Labor have campaigned hard on this but don’t think Francis Bedford has covered this issue. Her main focus has been Modbury Hospital and Tea Tree Plaza Interchange. Florey was always a relatively safe seat for Labor then the Independent Bedford. A different style of campaign with lots of resources on the ground is needed in a ultra marginal seat like Newland which puts all Independents at a disadvantage. Newland has much different demographics to Florey…probably an older population, much less multicultural than Florey, arguably more affluent and more active religious people.
Peter Malinauskas has visited the Newland electorate multiple times in recent weeks with social media pics at local pubs and even held the Adelaide V8 Supercars re-launch in Newland.
Tessa has been too low key to have a chance in Florey, sadly. I gather her campaign has been derailed by a number of factors, but the main issue was the length of time it took her to decide to run. You need much longer to establish yourself as an Independent candidate than as a party one. But if you do decide to run late in the piece you need to absolutely blitz it, which she has failed to do.
My understanding is that FF have preferenced Bedford above Harvey; not sure where the ALP is in the mix. If she *is* above the ALP then I’d be surprised, but not entirely shocked either. Frances, despite being a lot more left wing than either Harvey or Savvas, has establish strong, respectful connections with the local churches, and is a regular attendee at most of them. From FF’s perspective, this might be enough to push her above Savvas if they decide this is more important than Frances’ “leftiness” or her history with Snelling.
At the end of the day, Frances always votes with Labor, so that’s a consideration as well.
What you need to know about Frances is that her office has always assisted people from all over the north-east, not just those who live in her electorate.
That is the sort of politics she’s always done; no-one gets turned away. This sort of thing spreads by word of mouth; people know they can come to Frances and they will get help.
I know from years of volunteering for her at election times that her supporter base is literally spread all over SA.
Election after election, people come from north, south, east and west to help her. And she has ALWAYS had a huge number of supporters in Newland, Wright, Torrens and King, not just Florey.
I guess we’ll see who’s right on election night, but the campaign vibe is so strong that I have put actual money in her winning
Pre-polling week one begins with a 3.8 magnitude earthquake…centred around Mt Barker (Kavel) of all places.
https://earthquakes.ga.gov.au/
Stand by for future shocks.
Anything can happen in this most unusual election.
TT
Agree but I think the electorate is pretty disengaged. We are all Covid-weary, worried about the Ukraine war and the flow on effects and sad about Warnie. I’m not able to get much of a reaction when I talk about the election.
SA elections are mainly about competent running of the state and this has been largely Health for a while. Neither side has done well as SA Health is a basket case and will continue to be.
There’s no ideology here. Mali is lineball on the political spectrum with Marshall and some argue he’s to the right of him.
I can’t forget Churchill winning WWII and losing the election. And he really was a leader. Marshall isn’t.
Can’t disagree with that, Diogenes.
As for leadership, Malinauskas is streets ahead of the quokka.
Off to vote tomorrow….absentee pre-poll.. as I work in my shop 12hours a day 7 days a week……
https://twitter.com/KenelmTonkin/status/1500403372628725760
Apparently the lead LC candidate for the Nationals is Gary Johanson. Who some SA politics followers might recall was an independent candidate (and the main threat to Labor’s chance of winning the seat) in the 2012 by-election for state seat of Port Adelaide (notably not a regional seat) and was also the Mayor of the City of Port Adelaide-Enfield (a council that also very much does not cover any regional areas.)
I get that was ten years ago and it’s very much reasonable that his interests might be now based in regional SA. I just still find it interesting that someone whose name was previously recognisable in relation to the suburbs of the mid-north/Port area is now the lead candidate for a rural party.
Johanson ran for SA Best in Port Adelaide in 2018, too. Now the Nats HTV card doesn’t even have them on the list. (FF, AFP, Real Change, Libs, Advance SA.) Must’ve been a falling out there. The SA Best guy who came a close second in Heysen is also running for the Nats.
The rest of those HTV cards (so far):
Libs: Real Change, Nats, SA Best. (And a message pleading to not mix them up with the LDP.)
Sustainable Australia (cheekily abbreviated as “SA Party”) also have RC at #2.
AJP: Greens, RC, Legalise Cannabis.
Real Change are the common thread there. It’d mean more if GTVs were still a thing… still worth keeping an eye on, though.
Unbelievably, John Darley is running again for Advance SA. He’s 84, and if re-elected (he won’t be) would surely break a record for oldest person ever elected to parliament.
@Wat Tyler – thanks for your contribution to this thread discussion! I had actually forgotten Gary Johanson had contested the 2012 Port Adelaide By-Election (IND-24.3%) and contested Lee next door at the 2014 State Election (IND-11.2%). I was more interested in him when posting on TallyRoom because he was 1 of 3 candidates from SA Best in 2018 to contest this election. For 2018 State Election he got 18.6% running as SA Best.
As for why he’s running with SA Nationals… I’ll take this from his profile on the SA Nats website:
“Gary Johanson is a prominent Adelaide businessman, owner of Paint Supplies of SA located in Hendon, and popular former Mayor of the City of Port Adelaide Enfield.
Gary has substantial business interests in both the city and the country and is passionate about Regional Development.
Gary believes the SA Nationals are the true party of small business, manufacturing and of supporting traditional Australian values.”
Make of it what you will, considering Hendon is not too far from Port Adelaide.
@Modbury Man
I’m in general agreeance with your LC assessment.
I initially had 4 ALP, 4 LIB, 1 GRN, 2 Toss-up. I had the toss-ups as FF and SA-Best, but they’ve really collapsed and with only 1 official candidate in the Lower House, don’t see them dragging in votes to get elected. Lib Dems drawing Group A will make it fun again!
I have one of the following results:
4 ALP, 4 LIB, 1 GRN, 1 FF, 1 LDM
4 ALP, 5 LIP, 1 GRN, 1 FF
5 ALP, 4 LIB, 1 GRN, 1 FF < i doubt this, but it earlier seemed ALP would get a decent swing
4 ALP, 4 LIB, 2 GRN, 1 FF
That 19.6% of SA-Best Vote has to go somewhere! But Modbury, I'm with you on those top two scenarios being the most likely. Perhaps 1 ONP or 1 RC surprise maybe? There are a lot more right-wing parties on the ballot, would could help herd but also could splinter (hence my last scenario of a very unlikely 2 GRN). Nevertheless, 2 weeks to go!
*for the record, the 2 other SA-Best Candidates surviving from last election are John Illingworth running in Hammond for the Nationals (run as SA-Best in Heysen) and Tom Antonio in Giles for a second attempt as the lone SA-Best survivor to contest the lower house.
Good info bird of paradise. Looking for more HTV news. Should all be out with early voting tomorrow
What do Real Change even believe in?
Marko @ #75 Sunday, March 6th, 2022 – 10:30 pm
Change. But not that garden variety fake change that floods our markets nowadays. No sir. Only 100% Aussie-grown real change.
Seriously, policy-wise, it looks like centrist populism but mainly I think it’s a platform for Stephen Pallaras to position himself as Nick Xenophon’s spiritual successor.
https://realchangesa.com.au/policies/
I think the state could do worse than have them win the 11th spot. But I don’t know how realistic that is. While they’ve earned some good HTV positions, that means nothing if their primary vote is nothing (especially post-GTV.)
Clarification of my previous post: I meant to type that it was a platform for Pallaras to try to position himself as Xenophon’s spiritual successor – which was meant more cynically.
Serious sex offenders would be locked up indefinitely unless they can properly reform under a populist law and order crackdown planned by South Australian Labor.
Early voting opened today. The pre-poll booths in the CBD are at the Polish cultural centre, so the how-to-vote-card hander-outerers—Labor, Liberal, Greens, Animal Justice and one guy for Pallaras—are operating next to a large statue to the memory of the victims of the Katyń massacre. It makes for an unexpectedly moving experience for a vote in an Aussie election.
Australian Christian Lobby campaigns for SA election candidates who oppose late-term abortions:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/campaign-for-sa-election-candidates-against-late-term-abortions/100887798
SA Health mysteriously finds 23 dead Covid patients that many in the health system knew they were trying to hide. Downright careless.
New thread.