With the closure of nominations on Monday, candidates lists in ballot paper order are now available on my election guide, at least for the lower house, my guide to the upper house still being a work in progress. Details of candidates and parties for the lower house are summarised by blog post by Antony Green. The Greens are unusually sitting it out in four rural seats, One Nation are running in 19 seats, and the Nationals are making their biggest showing in a while with eight. The new incarnation of Family First is putting considerable effort in with 34 candidates, but it faces competition for the “family” vote from the Australian Family Party, associated with former Senator Bob Day.
Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats have drawn top spot on the Legislative Council ticket, just as David Leyonhjelm did when elected to the Senate in New South Wales with 9.5% of the vote in 2013, maximising the party’s windfall from confused Liberal supporters. Others of note include former Labor MP Tom Kenyon at the head of the Family First ticket, Bob Day doing likewise for the Australian Family Party, and Annabel and Greg Digance running jointly on an independent ticket ahead of their looming trial on charges of having attempted to blackmail Peter Malinauskas.
I believe the Australia Institute poll is the same thing as the Dynata poll reported in the update here.
I wouldn’t want to bet on the outcome of the SA election. Marshall has, I believe, lost some skin with his Covid19 response.
I note in WA now Rapid Anitgen Tests are free of charge to everyone.
The Australian has a byline that Family First will recommend preferences to ALP in “two key seats”.
@puffytmd Marshall has, I believe, lost some skin with his Covid19 response.
He also lost skin with his inability to control his own MP’s. With continual infighting and normal bad behaviour from the Libs, they had a chance to go down a different path or continue down the same path they have been on for a long time in SA.
Attended a “meet the candidates” forum/debate in Blackwood (Waite electorate) last night Almost 250 in the physical audience plus a YouTube broadcast.
5 candidates attendance – Animal justice the only one not there. All 5 made reasonably good speeches and responses while we were there (we had to leave early – yet to see the end on youtube).
Labor’s Hydrogen Plan came across well and was well presented by Cathy Hutchesson. The idea is to take the ‘excess’ renewables power generated in the day and convert it to Hydrogen for later energy use or sale. This could play well across all constituencies. (There was a detailed brochure in the foyer as well )
The Labor candidate put forward party policy clearly and articulately. She was a little less polished when it came to purely local matters
The “official” Liberal was polished and a smooth talker (a little to much, an established staffer). Some good points (such as exporting excess renewable energy via the new NSW interconnector), but overall a little to glib for me.
Sam Duluk – incumbent, elected as a Lib but now independent after a Christmas Party incident – was cut from the same mould. Made a few good points (such as Mental Health) but on other topics seemed a bit thin on new ideas.
The other independent (and Mitcham Mayor) came across as genuine but less of an accomplished speaker. Presented some good information (especially on recycling) and ideas (e.g. on identifying the root problems on Health).
The Green was affable but waffled somewhat. Obviously not an extreme and seemed genuinely well intentioned . However, kept telling us he had too many ideas to tell us in the limited time and this took up a sizeable chunk of his response. Other candidates just banged out what they could in the time. Would probably do the same if elected
Thanks for the forum report @PaulTu!
A general Dennis Denuto style analysis, but I reckon people want a break from turmoil, uncertainty and hardline approaches.
Usually this would mean sticking with what you know, right, but I’m not sure what SA voters would identify as what they know.
The electioneer-as-you-go approach of the Federal Govt seems to have been adopted with great enthusiasm in SA – flashy media comms, impressive numbers, everything is awesome, etc.
Problem is, everything isn’t awesome and the messaging doesn’t always match what’s on the ground.
We’ve all been impacted by Covid but some electorates are still carrying trauma from bushfire. Some elected members went above and beyond, in very private and authentic ways. This service doesn’t always get recognised by parties – in fact, it can be seen as a weakness, oddly – but word spreads among communities about who has their back.
I agree with projections this will be an election based on localised issues and this might be where voters seek their certainty.
Therefore, broader party outcomes might end up a reflection of who has listened to local MPs the best.
What policies are the major parties splashing cash on to help lure your vote this election? We’re tracking the major promises here:
https://twitter.com/GregBarila/status/1498809213120028672/photo/1
it’s looking like a tight and messy election. In decreasing order of likelihood, here’s how it looks with Labor polling 53 per cent to 47 percent:
1. A small but clear Labor majority.
2. A Liberal minority government.
3. A Labor minority government.
4. A Liberal majority government.
Leon Bignell is certainly the best electorate massager in the business, and, last on the ballot paper, he’ll need to be in top form with his old Labor comrades in Family First preferencing against him.
The Legislative Council presents a dismal prospect. There’s barely half a dozen I’d really like to vote for. Who to put last? Oh, dear – absolutely spoiled for choice!
After some analysis, and reading, and checking of entrails, I have become less optomistic on the prospects of A majority Labor government. There are so few marginal seats available, the sheer numbers of independants with good prospects of success and lack of any vibe or baseball bat purchases mean I have scaled back my expectations. Labor have a chance at a small majority Government, but everything has to go right. If only some things go right the independants will have the final say on which major party forms goverment……..and if the Liberals can do a good sandbagging job in the 4 marginals and maybe oust in independant or two, then they are in with a shot of being returned……Its going to be close I fear,,,,a clenched cheeks election
@The Toorak Toff:
I’d put Labor minority above Liberal minority purely based on SA Labor’s historical strength at negotiating with even quite conservative independents. Of course, that does assume that the numbers work out such that most of the independent MHAs whose votes end up being needed to get a majority together are _not_ the ones who only left the Liberal Party after being accused of criminal behaviour.
As for the Legislative Council, the nice part is they let you exhaust your ballot even voting below the line nowadays. If you really can’t decide who to put last, just leave all the worst ones’ boxes blank and they count equally as “don’t give my vote to this scumbag under any circumstances”! Now if only there was a way to do that at the top of the ticket… and at least two candidates worth giving one’s first preference to…
Jiminy Krikkitt_says:
Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 4:35 pm
“I’d put Labor minority above Liberal minority purely based on SA Labor’s historical strength at negotiating with even quite conservative independents.”
Or even the Nationals!!
There is no LNP coal-ition in SA.
Karlene Maywald (during the Rann administration) is the case in point.
I’m struggling to get my head around the pessimism that seems to have set in on here about Labor’s prospects. If Newspoll is indeed right, and I think it likely is, things are sitting around 53-47, with Labor having a primary vote in that poll of 39 percent. Anyone who has followed South Australian elections would know that the Liberals tend to get huge majorities in the country. If that Newspoll is about on the mark, things will be looking pretty dire for the Liberals in metro Adelaide. I’m expecting some pretty big swings.
Despite now living in Darwin, a Liberal ad popped up on my Facebook today, clearly targeting voters in the seat of Adelaide. It was telling them how terrible it will be to have the Adelaide 500 back, saying that Talem Bend needs to be the home of motor sport in SA.
In terms of Legislative Council voting, as long as you don’t just have your heart set on voting for unviable independents and micro-parties, I wouldn’t stress too much for the lack of decent choices beyond the few.
For instance, most of the choices look rubbish for me but I have found a few I definitely will be ranking and among them is Greens, Labor and SA Best, which means my vote will most likely end up just sticking to one of those tickets in the count, rather than exhausting or going to some far right/Christian fundamentalist outfit.
Matt31, because of the wild swings we can see in SA elections, a general rule of thumb I have is never to rule out any seat held by a margin of less than 8% (on either side of the pendulum). That sounds big but SA seats can be weird like that.
Also, the other element to remember is some of the seats had a strong SA Best vote last time, so some of the 2018 2PP votes might have been a little warped because of their presence which won’t be repeated this time.
Post fair boundaries has Labor ever lost an election with 53%, 2pp
No, since the end of the Playmander era, only Labor has managed to lose the 2PP popular vote and still win government. (They did so in 1975, 1989, 2002, 2010 and 2014.)
Wat Tyler, spot on regarding SABest vote.
That’s the key voter both parties are trying for. Who can get that vote to fall their way wins.
There isn’t enough polling to get a sense of a trend or if they are correct.
I think on Election Day the winning party will only get 2pp of a 51/49.
There will be at least one surprise result.
Oh The Toorak Toff do tell!! I hate surprises!!
Who, which seat??
What if the surprise is that there isn’t any surprises?
Wondering if someone involved can keep us up to date on htv of minor parties in key lower house seats and all parties LC
anyone know when early voting is available and where?
@BeaglieBoy
Is this the info you are after?:
https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/voting/early-voting#SAEVC
Surprises are surprises.
What is insane us that the “independent umpire” reckons it’s ok for the Libs to blame Malinauskas for deficiencies in health services which were perpetrated before he entered parliament.
Driving around rural SA in the last week I was surprised by the number of “family first” corflutes. Most old ones left over from the pre-“Conservative Party” merger I guess by the look of them. Almost every rural town on the Yorke Peninsula was bedecked with FF posters.
May be a factor in the upper house, and potentially in the upcoming Fed elect. Preferences in the lower house not always going to the Libs however. I had thought that they were dead, buried and/or cremated.
Of course Palmer’s misfits aren’t standing in the state election.
Observing Family First (mark I) preference distributions at a few polling booths over the years they tended to (usually) go 70-80% back to Liberal. The two “Family” parties are interesting; the Snelling/Kenyon “Family First” is more DLP-lite. The Bob Day “Australian Family Party” is a little more hardcore rightwing (Mr HR Nicholls Society). The Australian Christian Lobby is certainly hitting the ground with some tasteless brochures relating to abortion (specifically targeting Rachel Sanderson where I live). Presumably similar ones are appearing elsewhere with other MPs.
Interesting polling in Premier Steven Marshall’s seat of Dunstan
Poll shock: Premier at risk in his own seat
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/sa-election-2022-opinion-poll-finds-premier-steven-marshall-risks-losing-his-seat-of-dunstan/news-story/e02ac704177ebba6cf11b4ce2d79be05
Modbury Man…Poor form, old chap, linking to a paywalled article in a murdoch publication!! 😉 But good news, if true!!
MOFOS
What are the figures for the Dunstan poll?
Poll results in the Tiser
Primary Vote
Libs – 44%
Lab – 37%
Greens – 12%
Other – 8%
Gives a 49/51 in favour of Labor with only 400 people polled. So 5% margin of error is what the story states.
The Libs also leaked an internal poll in the western suburbs seat of Cotton
LNP 55 v Lab 45 2pp. No idea of primary or number polled. So could be meaningless like all seat polling.
More statewide would be nice.
On FiveAA this morning they did mention that Marshall is in trouble in his seat, than this poll comes out tonight.
Dunstan (ALP leading 51-49)
(Primaries: LIB: 44, ALP 37, GRN 12, OTHERS 8)
Malinauskus leading preferred Premier 40-39 (21 undecided)
Colton (LIB leading 55-45)
(Primaries: LIB 47, ALP 34, GRN 9, OTHERS 10)
No preferred premier numbers quoted for Colton
Poll from ALP pollster Utting (commissioned by SDA)
Not seeing anything in these polls to change my prediction of an ALP majority 1-4. People might think it’s weird that Colton isn’t going the way of Dunstan, but demographics are changing a lot in Colton and the candidate isn’t that strong.
Two seat polls with TPP swings to Labor of 7.1% & 1.2%. Average is 4.15%.
Newspoll TPP swing to Labor was 4.9%.
Dynata TPP swing to Labor was 2.9%.
So the seat polls collectively are explainable, if individually are wildly different.
I suspect some personal popularity of the local member, Matt Cowdrey, may shield him somewhat from an ALP swing in Colton. I’m not surprised to see Marshall under pressure; I had been keen to see poling in that seat as I have suspected it could very well be in play.
Obviously the usual grain of salt that accompanies any seat poll applies but that Dunstan poll is still interesting. While body language, mannerisms and general vibes like that can mean nothing, it is interesting to note that Labor have been behaving like winners in the last two weeks, whereas, aside from Marshall’s smiles, the Liberals have been lashing out and starting to detach the kitchen sink in order to throw it. Of course, being the incumbent, the Liberals will still have an easier go and can get as ugly as they want because they only have to make Labor look worse, so I wouldn’t write them off but it’s still very interesting.
On a more pessimistic note though, one thing that has kept me awake at night (figuratively speaking) is the prospect of a Legislative Council result of 4 Lib, 4 ALP, 1 Green, 1 FF, 1 PHON, regardless of who wins government. While, in the next four years that result wouldn’t matter as SA Best would still have the balance of power, in the long term, it’s scary. I’m not saying it will happen. There are plenty of other (probably more likely) possible outcomes but the above outcome is still a possibility.
PHON got nearly 5% without really trying in the 2019 SA Senate race which, if replicated, would be more than half a quota in the LC. This time they’re actually trying. And Family First might still have a lot of its base in waiting from pre-Conservatives era plus anyone Kenyon and Snelling have dragged over from the Labor Right (or people still in the ALP who will happily preference them over the Greens.) There are a lot of unknowns at work here.
Countering that is that FF this time are running in a post-GTV system, so they can’t just preference harvest over the line like previous. They have won once post-GTV in the 2016 Double Dissolution (quotas only slightly lower than an LC quota) Senate ballot in SA but they just scraped into the 12th slot (beating out Labor) and there were a lot of specific circumstances which led to that last time.
It probably won’t amount to anything like that and I am just needlessly worrying but it has been on my mind.
While obviously the scenario where Marshall loses his own seat would be one where Labor also wins comfortably, so it’s not really an issue but I am still enjoying an imaginary scenario where he loses his seat but the Liberals still win a majority and they have to elect a new leader to be Premier, and what a clusterf— that would be, especially in the eyes of voters who voted for Marshall and got Van Holst Pellekaan instead. It would be even more amusing if that happened and Brock also won Stuart. I bet Vicki Chapman dreams about that scenario. 😆
Wat:
That scenario came very close to playing out in Queensland in 2015, where Campbell Newman was easily defeated in Ashgrove but the LNP only lost out on being reelected by a couple of seats.
There’s some rather credible theories out there that his backers (primarily former opposition leader Jeff Seeney, who wielded a lot of power within the party but was about a popular with the public as gonorrhea) were hoping for such a situation when they first installed him into the leadership in 2011 (at the time, it seemed like the LNP would easily win government but that a seat like Ashgrove was probably out of reach), and that once in government his rivals deliberately stymied his attempts to get parachuted into a safer seat for similar reasons. For what its worth, Newman said repeatedly while Premier that he had no intention of finding another seat, but who knows what went down behind the scenes.
When of my favorite moments from the 2015 election coverage was watching the change in then-Treasurer and potential Newman successor Tim Nicholls’ demeanor as the projected result went from “Newman gone but LNP narrowly reelected” to “Labor minority government.”
Asha, I vividly recall a similar scenario where the Coalition win re-election but John Howard loses his seat being on the cards in 2007. I remember there being a quiet discussion on what to do if that happens: Whether Howard should stay on as PM and be parachuted back into a safe Liberal seat vacated by some loyal MP, relying on the “three months” clause of s64 of the constitution to allow him to stay on in the interim, or to fast forward his plans to retire in favour of Costello.
Obviously, if the scenario played out, it’s more than likely the latter would have happened, as Howard had made it clear that was his last election and he planned to retire in the next term anyway, so having an MP sacrifice their seat so he can be parachuted back in, just so he can stay on for another year or so seems a bit of a waste. Still, it’s interesting to speculate who would have done it if they had chosen to go that route, if that scenario actually had occurred.
After all the upheavals of 2021, my imaginary scenario is where party candidates declare their factional ties upfront. A simple colour-coded system on election corflutes would do. Then an online ready reckoner explaining how it influences pre-selection, portfolio and committee assignment, electorate needs, etc. And maybe another declaration about how much Photoshop was used on the corflute photograph. Also the establishment of a handy corflute per dwelling guide – current CPD ratio on my street is one sign for every two houses. This is mostly due to the use of the popular back-to-back cable-tie system but it’s only a short street and y’all add up!
Wat:
It’s fascinating to think about. I agree with you that they almost certainly would have just transitioned to Costello in such a situation.
On what they could have done were the plan to keep Howard:
Looking at Wikipedia, the Libs won 15 seats in NSW in 2007. (Obviously, if the Libs narrowly held government, they would likely have won more than that, but they would surely have wanted a reliably safe seat to avoid the catastrophic outcome of Howard losing the ensuing by-election.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2007_Australian_federal_election_(House_of_Representatives)
You’d assume for optics he’d want one in the Sydney area, preferably in the north, not too far from Bennelong.
Bradfield, North Sydney, Warringah, and Wentworth were all held by future leadership aspirants (Nelson, Hockey, Abbott, and Turnbull respectively), and it seems unlikely that a senior frontbencher from the “next generation” of Libs would stand aside for Howard, though Abbott may well have been willing. Mitchell would have a just-elected MP in Alex Hawke. That leaves Berowra and Mackeller, held by Philip Ruddock and Bronwyn Bishop, as the most feasible options.
Were they really desperate to get Howard back into parliament, then you’ve got Greenway, Gilmore, Hughes, Paterson, and MacArthur, all of which would be too marginal to risk, Cook, which had a first term MP in Scott Morrison who I seriously can’t imagine giving up the seat after everything he did to win it, and the rural strongholds Farrer and Hume.
Marshall represents a seat that is trending liberal and reinforced by the latest boundary change.He is not likely to lose..also seat level opinion polls are very unreliable..Stuart suggests the sitting mp for half the seat polling very badly and not gaining extra votes in Port Augusta
Cressida O’Hanlon has been well received while campaigning long and hard in Dunstan. Don’t write her off.
Agree with @The Toorak Toff re Cressida O’Hanlon
There was an item on ABC Radio Adelaide this morning how she’s been campaigning hard and writing by hand personalised letters to electors in Dunstan.
Cressida O’Hanlon was pre selected for Dunstan in May last year. She was also candidate for Sturt in 2019, although her campaign was badly affected by the franking credit scare.
She fits the mould of Labor’s SA marginal seat candidates. Local, 4 kids etc.
Even though I have a home in Dunstan, Labor winning was not really on my radar, but on reflection it is certainly winnable if the circumstances are right. Marshall picked up a 2.5% swing last time but up until then it was marginal and it was Labor held until 2010. The Norwood area may have gentrified, but it’s still much more of an inner city seat than some of its eastern suburbs neighbours. Although Toorak Toff is on the wrong side of Kensington Road, he might just be on the money!
If Labor does pick up Dunstan (on a 8% swing) you can put down the glasses. There will be a Labor majority government. It’s inconceivable that Marshall could lose his seat but the Liberals end up forming Government.
I never really felt that Stephen Marshall was a good fit for Dunstan. It’s Redlegs territory after all, and he barracks for the arch enemy, Port Adelaide!!
What do you guys think about Newland? I know its a bit messy but I can only really see Labor winning.
I also see Labor winning/holding in Elder, Wright, Adelaide, Mawson and King.
On the other hand I can also see it likely that Liberals get back Waite and hold Davenport.
In the upper house im thinking FF and One Nation win a seat? Im not too sure there.
Thanks.
I hope Malinauskas takes up the issue of (lack of) submarine jobs with Marshall. Despite the announcements AUKUS means that Adelaide sub jobs have been pushed back at least three years, even if Morrison and Dutton keep all their promises. This also means SA lost about $4 billion in defence spending over the next four years.
The Liberals show some gaul promoting sub jobs as a “win” for SA under the banner “stronger future”. It should be “Distant Future”.
https://strongerfuture.com.au/policies/cementing-south-australias-future-as-the-defence-state
It looks like Steve Marshall has gone all Bridget McKenzie with “tourism grants” being awarded just before the election to an SA media figure.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-03/sa-premier-defends-tourism-grant-to-andrew-cosi-costello/100879336
What shall we call this allocation? Airpork One?
A model of the upcoming 2022 South Australia state election using various inputs such as voting intention polls and historical performance to model the election. We then run 100 000 simulations to forecast the election.
Swarm plot of forecasted Liberal 2-party-preferred, shaded by expected outcome.
Outcome Probability
The Liberals win an outright majority 18 in 100
The Liberals likely remain in minority govt
(23 LIB seats, 22 or fewer ALP seats) 4 in 100
Labor wins an outright majority 64 in 100
Labor likely forms a minority govt
(23 ALP seats, 22 or fewer LIB seats) 7 in 100
Hung parliament, govt unclear 7 in 100
https://armariuminterreta.com/2022-sa-state-election-forecast/
Marshall would love our Covid numbers to come down but they are daily about 2000. Hospital and ICU numbers not decreasing. This has meant the RAH still can’t do much elective surgery. I’m told the elective surgery waiting list has blown out by 3,000.
Marshall also cancelled elective surgery in private hospital (cat 1 and 2). He should have kept day surgery open but was panicked by SA Health.
If anyone has lost this for the Libs, it is SA Health, who incidentally lost the last election for Labor.