The latest fortnightly (consistently so now, it seems) federal voting intention result from Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). It also includes for the first time this term a reading for the United Australia Party, who are at 4%. The leaders’ ratings find Scott Morrison recovering a little, up three on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 55%, but has even more favourable movement for Anthony Albanese, who is up four on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 43%. Albanese has almost closed the gap on preferred prime minister, now trailing 42-40, in from 43-38 last fortnight.
Full report here from The Australian; the poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1525.
Shellbell
From previous thread. All the best to your daughter and her studies here in Melbourne.
Closing another 3 points on PPM. Not that it’s a particularly predictive metric, but it does close off a few narratives from the cheerleaders
For those affected by the rain event in Qld., stay safe.
No “Tampa” moment for the featherweight PM.
sprocket_,
Could you put up the seat map again please? 🙂
Emma
@emma__jayne14
Peter Dutton wants the government to fund court costs for politicians suing for defamation; but wants the Australian people to fund flood disaster relief.
It’s things like this that are making the electorate pissed off with the Coalition.
#Newspoll TPP ALP 55 (0) L/NP 45 (0)
Primary L/NP 35 (+1) ALP 41 (0) GRN 9 (+1) UAP 4 ON 3 (0) OTH 8 (-6)
Not sure if the strong Teal vote in certain seats is being picked up here…
C@t all the standard caveats apply..
I thought the stats people agree PPM works if you add 10% or more to opposition. But best to ignore and stick to 2PP.
C@t
Seriously in what universe does Peter Dutton, a federal govt minister think this is a good idea at this point during a natural disaster.
No “Tampa” moment for the featherweight PM.
Hopefully, although it might be too early for the Russian aggression to have had much affect on the numbers.
How did others fall 6 but everything else increase only 2?
Labor with 6 points on the Lying Reactionary Party. Good. Albo getting loved by voters. Morrison not so much: voters are on to him. Slump for the under-reactionaries continues. Lovely to see.
If Morrison is going to get a khaki bounce, I’d expect it to be in the next Newspoll, not this one.
But in the meantime he’s got another natural disaster to fuck up on. Dutton is off to a good start there, with ScoMo backing him apparently.
Is the backbench nervous? Is the odious Dutton planning regime change?
One thing’s almost certain, the sick joke that is Morrison is almost over.
@Victoria
Just a demonstration of getting government out of people lives and can do capitalism in action
BSF – UAP with 4 is being reported for the first time in this poll, was included in OTH before
Entrails time.
3 years ago pollsters got the 2PP wrong, but were closer on Primary vote.
Now we see Labor primary vote in the low 40s, Coalition mid 30s.
Now both 2PP and primary vote polling spell well-deserved doom for Scomo and his ratbags.
Anyone heard from Wayne?
Re WTR @9:47. ” Closing another 3 points on PPM. Not that it’s a particularly predictive metric, but it does close off a few narratives from the cheerleaders”
Headline in the Australian tomorrow:
”Morrison preferred PM as Coalition vote jumps”
OK I just made that up but I wouldn’t be surprised. In Rupert World, +1 to the bad guys is a “jump”. Maybe “Morrison holds the line”.
John Landy, part 2. From the New York Times half-page obit:
“Above all, Landy was a sportsman, as exemplified in a startling moment in the 1956 Australian track and field championships in Melbourne, just before the Olympics there.
“Landy had entered the race hoping to break the world record for the mile. But with the race underway, a 19-year-old competitor, Ron Clarke, was bumped only strides ahead of him and fell to the track. Landy leapt over him and, as he did, accidentally spiked him on his right shoulder. Landy stopped, ran back to Clarke, brushed cinders from Clarke’s knees and said, “Sorry.”
“Keep going,” Clarke said. “I’m all right.”
“Clarke got up, and he and Landy started after the others, who by then were 60 yards ahead. Landy caught them and won in 4:04.2.
“Gordon Moyes, an Australian minister who was there, later called it “the most incredibly stupid, beautiful, foolish, gentlemanly act I have ever seen.”
“In the Olympics that year, Landy was the favorite in the 1,500 meters. Before the final, he saw that Ron Delany, a young Irishman who attended Villanova University, was nervous. Landy calmed him down and said, “I think you can win this one, Ron.”
“Delany did. Landy took the bronze medal.
Steve777
Let’s assume Rupert has written off The Endangered Scomo.
Maybe Rupes enables Dutts with ‘Labor On Track for Landslide’ so a backbench revolt deposes Scomo and elects…Frydenberg! (Who then goes on to lose anyway…)
It’s very doubtful that Ukraine will have any effect on polls. In point of fact, I asked my dear great-niece this evening – compelling evidence – if she’s been influenced by events? As is her manner, she told me to get a life.
The headline is …
“Labor ahead as both leaders lift approval”
Steve:
The headline will definitely be something like “PM’s approval ratings soar amidst Ukraine crisis”
This week saw the Black Swan event that Morrison would have been hoping for, with the outbreak of war in the Ukraine dominating the media for much of this Newspoll polling period. And I’d have thought that something like a war was exactly what SloMo was dreaming of, given that defence and national security issues tend to favour both the government of the day, and the Coalition more broadly. I for one was expecting some sort of move back to the government, however small, and I would have been happy enough with something like 53/47.
Instead what happened with the polling was absolutely nothing at all, a pretty much status quo result in line with the trend of most polling for the last six months, with the ALP with a PV around 40, the LNP around 35, the Greens around 10, and others 15, washing out to 2PP of 55/45. That’s landslide polling, and it seems that not even the opening skirmishes of World War III are going to turn it around.
The most likely trajectory of the Ukraine war, at least in so far as it relates to Australia, is that it settles into some sort of stalemate and starts to fade from the news. Barring any sort of particularly dramatic developments (which of course is still quite possible), it will likely cease to be political factor in Australia within a few weeks. Which means that the one time it may have been beneficial for the government – this week, while the shock of it all remains new – it’s really has zero effect on the long term trajectory of polling for the federal election, and it appears that people have made their minds up. It’s looking more and more likely to see a comfortable Labor majority come election night.
Some of the increase in Labor’s PV must have come from the under-reactionaries. And some of their vote must have fled for the comforts of the Lite. It will be very interesting to see what happens to their vote in seats where the Lite do well.
How much trouble will UAP cause? If most of their vote, as well as the larger share of the No Notion vote and the Old Testament Pentecostal Vote (usually about 1.5%), ends up with the Lying Reactionaries then the margin will be tighter than it appears to be.
Despite these numbers, the Lying Reactionaries can still eke out a win:
Lying Reactionary PV = 35.0
No Notion = 2.5
UAP = 3.5
Old Testament Pentecostals = 1.5
Under Reactionaries = 2.0
Other = 5.0
That gets them to 49.5…enough if the votes are in the right seats. Labor have to do better in the seats that will matter.
Asha
Not quite……………..
.
Labor ahead as both leaders lift approval
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-labor-still-ahead-but-the-gap-is-narrowing/news-story/07b6099fb36eddb9f119cc0c2889081d
Snappy Tom:
I think I’d be at risk of being hospitalised with laughter-related injuries if Dutton got tricked into being a stalking horse a second time!
From the latest poll i see the greens are still “under-sampled” with 9per cent, better than last time at 8, of course you can spin it by saying the number of voters increased by 12 percent.
Brisbane has recorded over 200 mm of rain three days running.
Khaki election is a bit silly really as we are not directly involved. Unless we suddenly start drafting extra divisions to send off to Europe our involvement is going to involve a lot of cursing at Putin and not much more.
Stay on target. Stay on target!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnP5iDKwuwk
Hugo:
My thoughts are similar.
Unless Labor seriously fucks up in the next couple of months or the polls are completely wrong (significantly moreso than in 2019), I’m having trouble envisioning a way back for the government at this point.
Well may we say God save the Queen because not even Putin will save Scotty,from marketing ,from a landslide loss.
Correction Dr Fumbles 12.5% – that’s almost 13! Must clutch at any and all positive straws!
@sprocket_
I am wondering what website you used to make that map
Bludging:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 10:12 pm
[‘…Labor’s PV must have come from the under-reactionaries.’]
Please stop the glibness!
While I agree that the war in Ukraine will not have influenced this Newspoll greatly, it’ll be 2 weeks + in by the next Newspoll so the shock factor will not likely be still happening as much when they are in the field. Sadly for Scooter, it was a week wrongly timed to effect Newspoll.
@B.S. Fairman
Khaki election is a bit silly really as we are not directly involved. Unless we suddenly start drafting extra divisions to send off to Europe our involvement is going to involve a lot of cursing at Putin and not much more.
______________
Well if you count all the thoughts and prayers committed, SfM would say we are involved – right up until polling day.
I am pretty sure the domestic reserve of “thoughts and prayers” will be underway soon to be deployed in Brisbane to fill those sandbags.
I figured a Khaki election was morrisons wet dream to get Covid and rorts off the paper and to do more army cosplay – almost expected him to start wearing something military – like dutton with his ADF insignia facemask. Trouble is working out whether the photos of SfM in camo or body armour are new or just from the files.
Asha says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 10:19 pm
The under reactionaries are campaigning hardest against Labor where Labor start furthest behind – in QLD. They will be trying to reprise the 2019 result, when they contrived to keep the Lying Reactionary Party in power.
Personally, while I long for a change election, I think the odds still favour the incumbents. Narrowly, perhaps. But there’s still enough in it to keep them in office. They will win if they can tighten the primary gap with Labor by a couple of points. There has to be a very high likelihood of this during the campaign proper.
Did I say it was pissing down before? I got carried away. Now it’s pissing down.
Morrison could always launch an attack on China because they didn’t follow his instruction to condemn Putin.
In relation to the Russo-Ukraine war and to China, Labor have been the more focused and government-like in the last week. The Lying Reactionaries cannot escape their own innate incompetence, their inherent bumble-headedness. In a war, it helps to have a Government in which the key personal have their heads screwed on the right way. This really disqualifies the LRP.
What would be nice, Mr Newspoll, it 2 separate PV tables, one for seats with teals running an all the rest.
Woulnt matter if it was a combined 2 or 3 polls either, just woul like to see how that indie/cooker vote is falling as it sure as hell wont be uniform
JenAuthor:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 10:25 pm
My great-niece would differ, so would her mother, a Tory to her bootstraps though now she’s changed her tune, thinking Morrisson’s a goose.
Trouble with a khaki election is that Morrsion backed the wrong horse- he went all in on China (and made a mess of it) only for Russia to rise as the bogeyman…..
I will not celebrate these polls until Antony Green says, oops he retired right? ok, then, Until the counting is done.
Morrison has at least two Gods.
Tonight on the news I saw vision of him at the pulpit of a Ukrainian Orthodox Church calling on the God of something or other to do something or other, and then on the God Of Justice to prevail on their behalf.
Does he also have a God Of Rorts to pray to?
Embarrassing halfwit.
Another two weeks have passed, and still no sign at all of any movement back to the LNP. It’s getting harder to see what factors could change the game. Scomo has tried culture wars, but is being nasty to transgender kids or athletes going to change any votes? He’s tried “Albo is a Chinese spy”, but that’s so absurd it’s got zero traction. There is still the budget to come, but any big spending could well be seen as desperate/irresponsible/unbelievable, and Labor can just match it anyway.
Maybe the actual announcement of the election will change what voters are thinking. Perhaps there will be some killer LNP ads which change things. Maybe Albo will flounder in the televised debates-that’s probably my biggest fear. But we are into the final quarter, and the LNP is still 5 goals down….
citizen at 10.35pm
So, Scomo should ‘shirtfront’ Xi? That’s always work well for jumped-up Tory PMs…