It’s been a big couple of days for state opinion polls: a shock Newspoll from South Australia three weeks out from the election, a YouGov poll showing Labor still in front in Queensland, and a Resolve Strategic finding that Labor is back in the game in New South Wales. As well as all that, I can offer the following summary of miscellaneous developments to hang a new open thread off:
• The Age/Herald has related that the small sample of 170 Western Australian respondents from the recent Resolve Strategic poll had 64% supporting Mark McGowan’s decision to scrap the originally proposed date of February 5 for reopening the state’s border, with only 32% opposed. This compares with 39% and 47% respectively from the national sample of 1604.
• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Labor-held marginal seat of Lilley in Brisbane, Ryan Shaw, has announced his withdrawal. Shaw is an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and said he had made the decision to focus on his mental health.
• Lara Alexander will become one of the three Liberal members for Bass in the Tasmanian state parliament after winning the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).
• The Poll Bludger, individually and collectively, was greatly saddened to hear of the death of Zoe Wilson, a.k.a. Lizzie, an unfailingly civil contributor to the forum of long standing, as was related yesterday in comments by Zoomster.
Asha:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:00 pm
[‘I’ve never been so glad to live at the top of a hill.’]
Me too but the Hinze dam is only a kilometer away & it has well-overreached its capacity, dispersing its excess water into the Nerang River. I’m sure the many Pentecostals in the Nerang area are drawing comparisons to Genesis 6:11–9:19.
Mavis @ #693 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 3:04 pm
Yes well,I thought GG’s suggestion was a good one.
Hive off a war thread for the arm chair warriors to discuss How I won the war and other tragic tales.
Let the rest of us bludgers get back to running the country from our patio deck chairs.
Grimesays:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:21 pm
“Hive off a war thread for the arm chair warriors to discuss How I won the war and other tragic tales.
Let the rest of us bludgers get back to running the country from our patio deck chairs.”
I like your style!
”
Socratessays:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:12 am
I think there have been many errors in western statecraft since the end of the cold war that got us in this mess.
The expansion of NATO had arguments both ways. Russia in the 1990s still had a lot to prove in terms of becoming a peaceful and democratic state. From the mid-1990s onwards western economic policy impoverished Russia, which created fertile ground for the extremists to return. I think the latter was a bigger problem than expansion of NATO.
I think the much bigger error was the disastrous invasion of Iraq by the three amigos, George W Bush, Tony Blair and John Howard.
– It had no moral justification, looked to the rest of the east and middle east like a grab for oil, and undermined any moral authority the USA had.
– It taught China and Russia that might was right.
– It destabilised the middle east, leading to 20 years of conflict, costing billions, weakening western resolve.
– It turned the war on terror into an unwinnable civil war.
– Western defence forces wasted 20 years fighting it. At the end they turned around and realised that China and Russia have meanwhile rearmed.
”
Socrates
You are way off with “– It destabilised the middle east, leading to 20 years of conflict, costing billions,”
It is actually trillions of dollars.
As Scott Ritter said “the toolbox is empty ”
He further added that Biden knows it, the US military knows it, the US political establishment knows it. The only people who don’t know about it are American people.
The sound of running water is very soothing.
Until it is running under the skirting boards and though your house.
TPOF:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:08 pm
I have to tell you that I was unaware of the existence of SWIFT until today. But I do agree with your critique, to the extent that Russia’s annexation of
Crimea pales with what’s happening now. And I guess that Germany’s
annexation of the Sudetenland is comparable, though if Hitler had been stopped in his tracks at this point, there may’ve been a lot of “what ifs”?
Grime,
Mavis is more concerned about the source of the suggestion than the suggestion itself.
As our resident blackboard monitor, he believes that he and he alone will decide on which suggestions are forwarded to WB.
He’s pathetic. But, that’s Mavis.
Ven says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:26 pm
”
…
As Scott Ritter said “the toolbox is empty ”
He further added that Biden knows it, the US military knows it, the US political establishment knows it. The only people who don’t know about it are American people.’
=========================================
I am not at all sure why this sort of arrant nonsense is put about.
The US toolbox isn’t ’empty’ at all. The USAF could handily destroy the Russian air force. The USN would destroy the Russian navy inside a week. The US Army has more soldiers, is a completely volunteer army, is far better equipped, and is far better trained than the Russian army. Further, it has had 20 years of experience in war fighting.
This furphy has been used to take the debate about options down a blind alley. It has been used to demoralize onlookers about the capacity of the US armed services. It has been used to falsely accuse Biden of lying to the American people. And it is endlessly repeated by posters who have not bothered to do even the most basic of sums.
Grime:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:21 pm
[‘Yes well, I thought GG’s suggestion was a good one.’]
The beauty of this site is differing opinions. I respect yours, as well as GG’s.
As a Plumber, I have never been comfortable with the sound of running water..
Morrison just landed in Brisbane for the photo ops
Here’s some perspective.
[‘Scott Morrison has left the door open to providing lethal aid to Ukraine to assist in its fight against Russia.
“I’ve just spoken to the Defence Minister and we’ll be seeking to provide whatever support we can for lethal aid through our NATO partners, particularly the US and the UK,” he said.
“We‘ll be working through those channels because that’s the most effective way to do it.”
It means Australia will provide funding through NATO for weapons and offensive capability rather than sending its own weaponry.
Australia has previously committed to sending non-lethal aid but had categorically ruled out sending troops.
The Prime Minister joined hundreds of Ukrainian Australians attending a solemn church service in Sydney to pray for their homeland.
Speaking after the service, Mr Morrison said Russia must pay for its actions.
“Russia must pay a heavy price, they must pay a heavy price,” he said.
“We will continue to add to that price as we consider every single option that is in front of us.’]
https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/penny-wong-hits-out-an-inconsistent-china/news-story/2d776a265ccb34e86c3b18c0ac15c552
We are indeed fortunate to have such a leader, not to mention his defence minister. It goes without saying that the coming election will be fought on the colour of khaki. But unlike the ’54 & the 2001 elections, I very much doubt that the implications of these will trump the price of petrol, et al.
I saw this on the Guardian blog but here is a comment from the Age Blog
Peter Dutton is starting up a crowdfunding campaign to raise money for those affected by the Queensland floods. No I didn’t read it on the shovel or another satirical web site. If this is true, well what can I say I’m speechless…
—————————-
It appears to be true – Dutton, just what does your so-called government provide for the citizens
He’e arriving just in time to save Brisbane single handedly.
Gallows humour.
Lesia Vasylenko
@lesiavasylenko
· 14h
My favorite. As the Putinists don’t know the terrain we’re taking direction signs down. Considering replacing them with ‘a welcome’ messages: Fuck off, Fuck off again, Fuck off back to #Russia
The Ukrainians have not got a man power shortage. The Americans and Europe have only got to keep supplying the Ukraine at this stage with weapons like MANPADS and anti-tank missiles, fuel, body armour, intelligence etc.
Morale seems awfully low on the Russian side and the Ukrainians seem determine. This could take a very long time and I don’t think Putin has that.
So another once in a generation catastrophic weather event. How many years in a row now… ? Anyone keeping the costs …?
B.S. Fairman:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:06 pm
[‘Morale seems awfully low on the Russian side and the Ukrainians seem determined. This could take a very long time and I don’t think Putin has that.’]
I think you’re right. As someone posted earlier, Ukrainians are hard nuts.
B.S. Fairman:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:06 pm
[‘Morale seems awfully low on the Russian side and the Ukrainians seem determined. This could take a very long time and I don’t think Putin has that.’]
I think you’re right. As someone posted earlier, Ukrainians are hard nuts.
Mavis
Yeah and Russians are well known wimps.
Rex Douglas:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:12 pm
[‘So another once in a generation catastrophic weather event. How many years in a row now… ? Anyone keeping the costs …?’]
Weather experts forecasted La Niña yonks ago.
Snappy Tom
“ As the title suggests, its an argument in favour of Australia ‘leasing’ some 3rd tranche Los Angeles class nuclear subs to bridge the capability gap between scheduled decommissioning of the Collins class (beginning early 2030s) and earliest feasible delivery of new (US or British) nuclear subs (2040s.)”
The idea of Australia leasing USN SSNs including old Los Angeles Class boats has been largely dismissed by both navies. The problem is not noise but condition.
The old LA class boats are 30+ years old and worn out. They will be costly and hard to maintain and operate. That means they need very skilled SSN crews, which is what we lack.
To answer your question on noise, the LAs will not be any quieter than Collins class, and not regionally superior. Collins boats sank them in wargames.
There is no practical alternative to Australia starting construction at ASC on a proven design ASAP.
I wouldn’t say Russians are wimps. I would suggest that a lot of them don’t know why they are fighting and some even seem to think they were being sent on an exercise and not a war. They basically don’t want to be there. And a large chunk are conscripts and conscripts only fight well if they believe in what they are fighting for.
That is the reason why the babushkas berating the soldiers is so powerful – imagine being berated by someone who could be your grandmother – you hardly going to shoot them but the words are clearly hurting.
Mavis
I have to tell you that I was unaware of the existence of SWIFT until today. But I do agree with your critique, to the extent that Russia’s annexation of
Crimea pales with what’s happening now. And I guess that Germany’s
annexation of the Sudetenland is comparable, though if Hitler had been stopped in his tracks at this point, there may’ve been a lot of “what ifs”?
__________________________________
As I’ve noted a few times over the past days, there are many parallels between Putin’s actions and Hitler’s. But there are some very important differences.
One of them is that Czechoslovakia had defence treaties and guarantees with France. Ukraine has no such agreements, although if it joined NATO it would have. So there was no obligation on the part of any NATO country to come to its aid, either over Crimea or over the invasion now occurring.
It would have been a tricky business to implement sanctions of the sort we are seeing now without the kinds of videos and information we are seeing now raising widespread popular support for action in the developed world.
Ven
“ You are way off with “– It destabilised the middle east, leading to 20 years of conflict, costing billions,”
I am happy to stand corrected on the cost. Lets just say “lots”. I think the conclusion still stands.
That being said, I agree with Boerwar that the US is still easily militarily stronger than Russia. However it does not have many forces left in Europe.
The mid eastern wars IMO weakened US morale, command and unity of purpose. If NATO and USA stood united against Russia, Russia could not win. So Putin’s long strategy was to support candidates like Trump, who would divide and weaken the USA and NATO, making it possible for his Ukrainian gambit.
In my view the same applies in Asia as well. No country except USA can stand alone against China. But a united regional bloc including AUKUS and/ or QUAD nations is a very different story.
B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:22 pm
I wouldn’t say Russians are wimps. I would suggest that a lot of them don’t know why they are fighting and some even seem to think they were being sent on an exercise and not a war. They basically don’t want to be there. And a large chunk are conscripts and conscripts only fight well if they believe in what they are fighting for.
That is the reason why the babushkas berating the soldiers is so powerful – imagine being berated by someone who could be your grandmother – you hardly going to shoot them but the words are clearly hurting.
_________________________________
Given the hysterically bizarre propaganda being pumped out by Putin to the Russian people, the level of non-violent opposition by civilians would also come as a disorienting shock for a military largely believing they were liberators, not conquerors.
Raf Sanchez
@rafsanchez
·
6h
My hotel in Moscow asked me to settle the bill early because they aren’t sure if credit cards are going to work once SWIFT sanctions kick in.
Maybe he can write them an IOU on a bit of toilet paper
poroti:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:16 pm
[‘Mavis
Ukrainians are hard nuts.
Yeah and Russians are well known wimps.’]
Well no! That’s not my implication. When Russians are fighting for mother Russia, they’re implacable. But when invading a country, where the bulk has no real interest in, that’s the problem Putin has. He has incinerators on the ground to placate parents.
There is a suggestion that the reason so many tanks have “run out of fuel” is a deliberate act by the crews so they don’t have to fight when they find out what they are being asked to do. I have no way for verifying this but it does seem to be a possibility.
I wonder how many Russians have deserted too.
Mavis says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:33 pm
‘
….. He has incinerators on the ground to placate parents.’
——————————-
This is a war story that needs independent corroboration.
Has Scomo sent thoughts and prayers to Brisbane yet? He should have the routine down pat by now:
1. Lay hands on an (unwilling) local and offer them thoughts and prayers.
2. Give a large untendered contract to a Liberal connected cleanup company.
3. Promise the locals that financial assistance has been “secured” and will arrive shortly after the next election.
Thanks Socrates at 4.20pm
So, to get nuclear subs (eventually) we have to buy/build new diesel ones ASAP?
This suggests AUKUS received the traditional amount of careful preparation the Coalition devotes to major projects: SFA!
Maybe we should talk to Korea about its new (diesel) sub class…
Also, is AUKUS just a booby-trap planted for a possible incoming Labor govt, so when nuclear subs have to be delayed further, the Right can get outraged about Labor’s ‘poor’ national security record? Is AUKUS that superficial, or does it have some measurable value?
‘B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:35 pm
There is a suggestion that the reason so many tanks have “run out of fuel” is a deliberate act by the crews so they don’t have to fight when they find out what they are being asked to do. I have no way for verifying this but it does seem to be a possibility.
I wonder how many Russians have deserted too.’
———————–
A single report by a single Ukrainian side person is insufficient to demonstrate that numerous Russian vehicles have ‘run out of fuel’.
IMO if the US Army were ordered to fight the Russians they would.
IMO, the main impediments to US waging against Russia are:
1. War weariness on the home front.
2. China is the US priority.
3. NATO partners mostly do not want to save Ukraine by going to war with Russia.
Apparently, Peter Dutton has started a Gofund Me Account for flood victims in QLD.
However as Ronni Salt points out,
RonniSalt
@RonniSalt
A reminder that the Morrison govt’s Emergency Response Fund totals over $4.2 billion.
It has sat largely untouched in the government’s Futures Fund earning ~4-5% interest p.a.
While a federal cabinet minister in the same government shills for change from the general public.
Quote Tweet
Peter Dutton
@PeterDutton_MP
· 4h
Grime says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 3:21 pm
Mavis @ #693 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 3:04 pm
Apart from the weather, Ukraine is “the” issue! Of course, if there’s a Newspoll tonight this could all change. I’m surprised that dear moderator would even consider considering GG’s reques
————————————————————————
If you were watching the ABC News channel, you’d never know the world was in the midst of the most serious security threat since the second world war.
While the Queensland floods are very concerning, the ABC has been providing minimal running coverage of the Ukraine crisis. It could cover both adequately.
It’s extraordinary that the ABC isn’t going to 24/7 news programming, pulling in the BBC, CNN and the U.S. networks in addition to its own very professional reporters. Even those very capable foreign correspondents haven’t been seen much.
ABC News seems to be run by a group of amateur administrators and producers who wouldn’t know a real story if it had hit them in the face.
That’s a shame because in the past couple of years it has hired a large group of very good young reporters from very diverse backgrounds who reflect the true multi-cultural nature of this country.
One very personal gripe is when watching ABC News they no longer give you an oral identification of the people coming up in the video clip. You suddenly see a face and have to quickly look at the little box in the lower left to figure out who it is. By then they have moved on.
The only exception is when the Prime Minister “Scott Morrison” is on, they definitely identify him orally. No so with people like Chris Minns and even Albo.
It’s surprising that the advocates for the millions of Australians with vision loss haven’t screamed bloody murder at our ABC because they are unable to identify the people onscreen.
Yeah, really gotta say I’d prefer the ukraine stuff to be somewhere else. Yes, it is a tragedy. Unfortunately tragedies are everywhere. The way the Oz government reacts to it? Fair enough. A fine line, but if there’s one truism about this that I try to follow that helps me retain my sanity, it is the fact that it’s quite literally on the other side of the world.
“ Well no! That’s not my implication. When Russians are fighting for mother Russia, they’re implacable. But when invading a country, where the bulk has no real interest in, that’s the problem Putin has. He has incinerators on the ground to placate parents.”
That’s my gut feeling on this as well. I think Putin may first succeed with the conventional war aspects of his invasion, but at a high cost that will be resented mightily by his own people. BUT, I think that the inevitable insurgency, coupled with crippling sanctions could well do his regime in altogether.
There are enough Russians alive today who remember their Afghanistan war. The appetite of the Russian people for this monstrous war doesn’t appear to be there at the start, let alone when the combined effects of the insurgency-sanctions- possible economic collapse really bites.
On Brisbane flooding I can only assume it is going to get a lot worse. All the rain that fell in the upper Brisbane River valley will not have flowed down to the city yet.
Socrates, it’s wild. The Wivenhoe dam went from 30% full to 100% full in about seven days, most of it in the last three.
For those not aware, that dam is primarily used as a flood mitigation dam, not water supply. The fact that it wasn’t used for that flood protection purpose before the previous QLD floods, was what the failure was. It started getting used as a water supply, so the objective was to keep it full. Rain came. Bugger.
Rewi says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:55 am
Of course context matters, Rewi. Of course it does. However, the peoples of Eastern Europe had the right and always will have the right to look to their own defence. The-then members of NATO in Western Europe could hardly say to the peoples of Eastern Europe “We are ok. We will defend ourselves. We have the benefit of US, French and UK nuclear weapons. However, you can take care of yourselves. Our help-desk is closed.” That would have amounted to the worst betrayal of all.
In each of the two world wars the Eastern theatre was critical. The peoples who live there know this very well. They were completely correct to try to make sure their territories and populations would not again be at the centre of another war, and to forestall any attempt to re-Stalinise them.
B.S. Fairman,
Tanks use about 4L a KM. They are all about maintenance, 1 hour on the road, 4 hours in the shop.
Young Russian conscripts can hardly feel fully enthusiastic about trying to kill their cousins in Ukraine to gratify a corrupt and despotic would-be Stalin. Perhaps they will refuse to fight and another revolution will unfold in Russia.
Boerwar @ #730 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 3:37 pm
A couple of days ago, maybe on ABC.net, I read that mobile cremation units were among the Russian military equipment. It was in the context of avoiding morale issues that would occur if bodies start returning to Russia. I don’t know how to confirm that.
Napoleon rated the morale of his soldiers as ten times more important than their physical weaponry.
Not sure I quite buy that ratio, but morale is important when your life is at stake.
I made a pastoral visit to a WW2 veteran many years ago. He told me there was no worse feeling than being in combat and feeling like your side was losing the battle.
I suspect the relative early success of Ukraine in staving off attacks has fueled Ukrainians’ determination to defend their homeland (a powerful force in itself) and may become demoralising to Russian troops who might have been led to believe in quick, easy victory.
During the Battle of Britain, German intelligence consistently underestimated British fighter strength. After some weeks of being assured the enemy was on its knees, German pilots would spot British fighters and radio to each other ‘Look, there are the last 50 Spitfires!’ and a moment later ‘Look over there, another last 50 Spitfires!’
Stephen Bungay wrote a great and relatively recent book on the Battle of Britain, called ‘The Most Dangerous Enemy.’ He pays attention to the disparity between the number of planes claimed to be shot down and those that actually. Pilots on both sides were wrong by a factor of about three, not because they lied, there were just factors that made precision impossible.
‘Fog of war’ isn’t just about combatants telling lies, it is about the sheer difficulty of knowing what’s really happening in combat.
Snappy Tom
You raise some good questions on AUKUS some of which I can only guess, and the people who know probably aren’t allowed to say.
AFAIK senior navy people have been raising the need for RAN SSNs for ten years but it was in the politically too hard basket till recently. At the same time LNP decision making on the Sea 1000 project was shamefully slow. This cannot be blamed on the French. So we have wasted a decade.
As AE and I discussed last night, at this point the situation is so dire that we should build whichever of SSKs or SSNs we can get in the water ASAP. AE thinks we should go back to the French contract but I am not sure if that is politically feasible. Most of the companies involved (sub contractors) have moved on already so we still have to start acquiring sub construction workforce and suppliers virtually from scratch.
Being given SSN technology IP is a big deal, it is up to us to use it wisely. IMO Labor should attempt to deliver the project in office (it is badly needed) but an inquiry into the behaviour of Defence (DSTO) and LNP ministers over what happened is very appropriate. Until we get to the bottom of who screwed up it is hard to be sure which option to take.
We will have to build some SSNs. If also building SSKs in the short term and basing them in Darwin helps then OK, but I am concerned we will not save that much time, because we still lack a long range diesel sub design. Attack only got to concept design, not detailed design, so it was still at least two years away from construction. If we have an SSN option with reactor cores available and design completed we might be better off going straight to that. As I said, it is a mess.
Not so much “booby trap” as heaping pile of accumulated failure.
One more thing – we really should stick to local build for two reasons. First we will never get local industry capability without it. Second most of the ally nation sub builders that could build boats of the standard we need are all busy on their own boats.
For those that have not seen “The Fog of War”, I can’t recommend it highly enough. The story of Robert McNamara. I don’t know if it’s a penance, but he explains the horror of war with such detail, it’s hard to believe it’s otherwise.
“ Thanks Socrates at 4.20pm
So, to get nuclear subs (eventually) we have to buy/build new diesel ones ASAP?
This suggests AUKUS received the traditional amount of careful preparation the Coalition devotes to major projects: SFA!
Maybe we should talk to Korea about its new (diesel) sub class…”
________
Yeah. nah. The Koreans are flat out themselves building german designed SSKs and their own locally designed mini subs.
I think this was probably my very first point made back on that fateful day in September: the cancellation of the Attack class program, whilst running off on a nuclear subs adventure, would inevitably lead to a yawning decades long capability gap before ‘announcement’ matched capability.
This whole looming clusterfuck could have been avoided from the inception of negotiations leading to those two blunders: If only Morrison/Dutton:
(i) Told Macron that Australia was only interested in replacing the Collins class with a similiar number of SSKs, whilst we pursued nuclear submarine technologies because of the alleged change in strategic environment; and
(ii) Told each of Johnson, Biden and Macron that each of their countries would be invited to submit SSN proposals when Morrison attended the G7 as an invited observer last June [and all three of those leaders were there at the same time].
The whole secrecy reeks of two things:
1. Johnson not wanting the French to be in a position to submit a proposal that way better than what the brits could manage; and
2. Morrison wanting to spring the announcement for domestic political purposes (two fold: ‘look and me: I do the best announcements’ and ‘this is a test for Labor’ wedge politics.
As it turns out there are very real obstacles to either the US or Britain supplying us with even 3-4 Nuclear subs within 20 years (the minus number we’d need in service before we could declare even a barebones ‘capability’).
Also, Dutton’s assertion that the French nuclear submarines were north viable because they would have to be refuelled every 10 years is made without any case study being done. THAT assertion, with everything else associated with this nuclear pivot, should have been subject to the 18 month feasibility study announced by the government back in September.
Rather than enhance our capability, the cac way this was all handled has only taken options off the table. Options that we probably need to explore just as much as the AUKUS proposal/s.
I made these points back on the day of the announcement, only to be subjected to a barrage of abuse from ___-C@t who condescending resorted to Pegasus style ‘cut n’ paste’ articles (which, I note she didn’t even understand) from US nuclear sub industry shills.
Not sure if this has been posted…what Morrison thinks of SAs Marshall….what a great help to Marshalls campaign!
https://twitter.com/Marlowe_1564/status/1497780590867005441