Ends and odds

Recent matters to report that aren’t state poll results.

It’s been a big couple of days for state opinion polls: a shock Newspoll from South Australia three weeks out from the election, a YouGov poll showing Labor still in front in Queensland, and a Resolve Strategic finding that Labor is back in the game in New South Wales. As well as all that, I can offer the following summary of miscellaneous developments to hang a new open thread off:

• The Age/Herald has related that the small sample of 170 Western Australian respondents from the recent Resolve Strategic poll had 64% supporting Mark McGowan’s decision to scrap the originally proposed date of February 5 for reopening the state’s border, with only 32% opposed. This compares with 39% and 47% respectively from the national sample of 1604.

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Labor-held marginal seat of Lilley in Brisbane, Ryan Shaw, has announced his withdrawal. Shaw is an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and said he had made the decision to focus on his mental health.

• Lara Alexander will become one of the three Liberal members for Bass in the Tasmanian state parliament after winning the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).

• The Poll Bludger, individually and collectively, was greatly saddened to hear of the death of Zoe Wilson, a.k.a. Lizzie, an unfailingly civil contributor to the forum of long standing, as was related yesterday in comments by Zoomster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

947 comments on “Ends and odds”

Comments Page 14 of 19
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  1. I watched “Insiders” this morning mainly to see what Wong would have to say and wasn’t disappointed. She sure is impressive and is arguably wasting her talents in the Senate.

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #513 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 1:10 pm

    C@tmomma @ #625 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 9:52 am

    Earlwood,
    When war comes to a country via an authoritarian dictator, there are two types of people. The first group allow him to roll over them. The second group stand up and fight. You can say I may have blood in my eyes, or some other colourful over-simplification. You, on the other hand are from the first group who have dollar signs in their eyes and a yellow stripe down their back. Which is hard to see as you roll over.

    simplification???

    What about option 3.

    The war is not in your country.

    Surely that allows for a much less binary debate.

    I agree but I think your comment equally applies to those people who constantly refer to me as having ‘blood in my eyes’. It’s a gross oversimplification and offensive to me. I simply believe in fighting for democracy against totalitarian dictators. Even from another country. I will continue to be passionate in my support of that aim. If that means to some that ‘I have blood in my eyes’, then so be it I guess.

  3. C@tmomma

    I’m perfectly happy with criticism, have at it!

    You’ve been using some pretty strident language against those you disagree with, as I noted earlier today. It’s included, as I referred to earlier, asking people not to post things you disagree with and, just now, suggesting when it would be appropriate to make a certain type of comment. That seems like policing to me, but you disagree and, at least today, you appear to be in a particularly uncompromising mood.

    Anyhoo, carry on.

  6. OC

    A bit difficult to believe a word of the rest of that TASS report when it finishes with this:

    “When clarifying the unfolding developments, the Russian Defense Ministry reassured that Russian troops are not targeting Ukrainian cities, but are limited to surgically striking and incapacitating Ukrainian military infrastructure. There are no threats whatsoever to the civilian population.”

    I think we are back with ‘we just don’t know’. Although the fact that it was the Ukraine military (possibly from other sources) that thought the men could still be alive strengthens that possibility.

  7. C@tmomma @ #652 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 10:17 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #513 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 1:10 pm

    C@tmomma @ #625 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 9:52 am

    Earlwood,
    When war comes to a country via an authoritarian dictator, there are two types of people. The first group allow him to roll over them. The second group stand up and fight. You can say I may have blood in my eyes, or some other colourful over-simplification. You, on the other hand are from the first group who have dollar signs in their eyes and a yellow stripe down their back. Which is hard to see as you roll over.

    simplification???

    What about option 3.

    The war is not in your country.

    Surely that allows for a much less binary debate.

    I agree but I think your comment equally applies to those people who constantly refer to me as having ‘blood in my eyes’. It’s a gross oversimplification and offensive to me. I simply believe in fighting for democracy against totalitarian dictators. Even from another country. I will continue to be passionate in my support of that aim. If that means to some that ‘I have blood in my eyes’, then so be it I guess.

    Well you, along with Boerwar, do seem eager to shutdown attempts to debate outside the USA good, Russia bad binary.

  8. TPOF @ #524 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 1:21 pm

    OC

    A bit difficult to believe a word of the rest of that TASS report when it finishes with this:

    “When clarifying the unfolding developments, the Russian Defense Ministry reassured that Russian troops are not targeting Ukrainian cities, but are limited to surgically striking and incapacitating Ukrainian military infrastructure. There are no threats whatsoever to the civilian population.”

    I think we are back with ‘we just don’t know’. Although the fact that it was the Ukraine military (possibly from other sources) that thought the men could still be alive strengthens that possibility.

    Especially when you hear that Russia has just targeted a gas pipeline to one of Ukraine’s biggest cities and blown it up.

  9. Offsiders* hosted by Paul Kennedy had far better analysis of Russia vs Ukraine than Insiders
    * I don’t watch sport, I do it

    Insiders – Bridget Brennan didn’t stand a chance to get a word in edgewise against the unctious know-all from The Australian whose booming voice would shut down most people. And David Speers didn’t draw her out
    Light weight, ignorant, superficial analysis of Ukraine from that journalist toeing the Newscorp line

    Penny Wong is a Lady with the debating skills, policy background and the smarts not to fall for David Speers gotchas which are frankly quite tedious and the audience would have learnt more if the questions had been chosen to draw out policy

    Insiders showcases the inadequacy of that intellectual midget that is David Speers

  10. Well you, along with Boerwar, do seem eager to shutdown attempts to debate outside the USA good, Russia bad binary.

    That’s a gross oversimplification of my position. It’s more like, democracy good, Authoritarian Dictators unnecessarily attacking an innocent country bad.

    But yes, when some seek to only point out what America is doing wrong I guess it does upset me, and I’m no apologist for America and its wars, I just like to support the valid ones and protest against the invalid ones like Iraq, which I did twice.

  11. BB and cat: re those two papers re the origins of COVID-19, I wonder if the Guardian journalist who wrote that article had really checked them out thoroughly.

    One paper concludes that the Hunan wetmarket was the epicentre for initial transmission of the disease: a proposition supported by most people who have written about the matter (including those who think that the disease came from out of a lab).

    The other paper, which is the one that can be read as saying that the disease is natural in origin, only expresses its conclusions in terms of their being “very likely.”

    I note that the lead author of both papers is a postgraduate student and that they have been uploaded to the internet by an open access publisher. It’s not clear the extent to which the papers have undergone a rigorous peer review process.

    I don’t want to seem to be to much of an academic snob but I think that, when a paper comes along that definitively disproves the lab origin theory, it will be published in Nature and will have authors who are leading figures in epidemiology, microbiology, etc.

  15. “ When war comes to a country via an authoritarian dictator, there are two types of people. The first group allow him to roll over them. The second group stand up and fight. You can say I may have blood in my eyes, or some other colourful over-simplification. You, on the other hand are from the first group who have dollar signs in their eyes and a yellow stripe down their back. Which is hard to see as you roll over.”

    As you sort out all the “1”s and “0”s in the attic of your binary mind War-C@t, would you spare a moment to send me a white feather? Much appreciated.

  16. [‘Kyiv comes under huge aerial and artillery bombardment leaving the sky glowing as Russian troops zero in on the capital: Ukrainian resistance to invasion has left Putin ‘raging’ in his mountain lair.’]

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10555871/Kyiv-comes-huge-aerial-artillery-bombardment-leaving-pulsing-glow-sky.html

    This is not exactly going the way Putin had anticipated, the invasion apparently costing Russia £15B a day:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10554269/Ukraine-DESTROYS-Russian-convoy-Zelenskys-troops-derail-Kremlin-push-Kyiv.html

  17. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:22 pm

    ….
    Well you, along with Boerwar, do seem eager to shutdown attempts to debate outside the USA good, Russia bad binary.’
    ——————————-
    The thing I have been critical of is posters trying to tacitly or directly blame Biden and the US for Putin’s decision to go to war.

  18. meher baba @ #661 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 10:28 am

    BB and cat: re those two papers re the origins of COVID-19, I wonder if the Guardian journalist who wrote that article had really checked them out thoroughly.

    One paper concludes that the Hunan wetmarket was the epicentre for initial transmission of the disease: a proposition supported by most people who have written about the matter (including those who think that the disease came from out of a lab).

    The other paper, which is the one that can be read as saying that the disease is natural in origin, only expresses its conclusions in terms of their being “very likely.”

    I note that the lead author of both papers is a postgraduate student and that they have been uploaded to the internet by an open access publisher. It’s not clear the extent to which the papers have undergone a rigorous peer review process.

    I don’t want to seem to be to much of an academic snob but I think that, when a paper comes along that definitively disproves the lab origin theory, it will be published in Nature and will have authors who are leading figures in epidemiology, microbiology, etc.

    You seem for from an “academic snob,” more a case of confused at how scientist present their findings.

    The lack of an absolute conclusion just says that they haven’t identified the first case where the virus passed from an animal carrier to a human.

    It is highly possible that this will never occur.

    You set an unreasonable benchmark, one which conspiracy theorist thrive on.

  22. Hi Mavis,

    I used to live up above Hardys Road, where it doesn’t flood, but my goodness down near Mudgeeraba town centre it can get wet. Good luck with it.

  25. I think it’s going to get to a stage where Putin will have to be permanently ‘managed out’ by a Kremlin backroom plotter, before this escalates beyond Ukraine.

  26. The lady doth protest too much:

    War-C@t, responding to Barney:

    Barney: “ Surely that allows for a much less binary debate.”

    War-C@t:

    “I agree but I think your comment equally applies to those people who constantly refer to me as having ‘blood in my eyes’. It’s a gross oversimplification and offensive to me. I simply believe in fighting for democracy against totalitarian dictators. Even from another country. I will continue to be passionate in my support of that aim. If that means to some that ‘I have blood in my eyes’, then so be it I guess.”

    ___________

    How can one complain about one’s views being a ‘gross oversimplification’, yet end up with that pompous pile of grandiose stupidity at the end of the same post?

    Yesterday someone pointed out – and named – the 50 dictators in the world. That’s a lot of “fighting for democracy” right there. Of course, and speaking of oversimplification, things get super complicated – and if one is rocking one’s high hobby horse, morally embarrassing – when one accepts that at least 10 of those dictators on that list were effectively installed by ‘us’ (the American led western alliance), and are actively suppressing democracy in a way that is at least on par with Xi.

    The waters are further muddied when one takes into account that of the remaining list of dictators are a bunch of folk we are happy to hold our nose and do business with. Of the remnant, most owe their rise to a backlash against western (usually American) duplicitous meddling.

    None of this is raised to deflect from Putin. Or even appease the likes of Xi. They are raised so that we never forget the agency that ‘we’ (the west) have in long term consciences of our own actions. We must do better in the future. Trashing wise and experienced minds like PJK is a pretty piss poor way of going about THAT.

    I think War-C@t suggested that I had a plank in my eye earlier. Pot. Kettle. Much?

  27. Boerwar @ #667 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 10:41 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:22 pm

    ….
    Well you, along with Boerwar, do seem eager to shutdown attempts to debate outside the USA good, Russia bad binary.’
    ——————————-
    The thing I have been critical of is posters trying to tacitly or directly blame Biden and the US for Putin’s decision to go to war.

    I have not seen anyone do that.


  29. billie says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:26 pm
    …
    Insiders showcases the inadequacy of that intellectual midget that is David Speers
    …

    They were in different play grounds. That sentence pretty much sums it up.

  30. [‘Vladimir Putin was facing growing international isolation and the prospect of pariah status on Saturday night as long-term allies dramatically turned against him following the invasion of Ukraine, and western nations planned further decisive military and financial action against Moscow.

    As his hopes of a quick victory evaporated in the face of fierce resistance by Ukrainian soldiers and armies of citizen volunteers, Russia’s president was deserted by his key ally, China, and had his ultimatum demanding Kyiv’s surrender defiantly brushed aside by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

    In perhaps the most striking development, Germany announced on Saturday night that it would supply Ukrainian troops with 1,000 anti-tank weapons as well as 500 Stinger missiles from its own military reserves.’]

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/the-world-shuns-pariah-putin

    Good to see Germany supply Ukraine with weapons, as it knows more than
    most of the danger of an unhinged dictator. Putin will go down in history
    alongside Stalin, though that’s open to debate.

  33. Getting ready to defend Kyiv street by street!

    Information bulletin from the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the National Resistance (which is every Ukrainian):

    How to make a Molotov cocktail:
    glass bottle
    gasoline
    rag
    acetone
    polyfoam, broken into small pieces to dissolve in the acetone
    thick cork and scotch tape

    Information bulletin from the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the National Resistance (which is every Ukrainian):

    How to make a Molotov cocktail:
    glass bottle
    gasoline
    rag
    acetone
    polyfoam, broken into small pieces to dissolve in the acetone
    thick cork and scotch tape

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1497674617196105730/photo/1

  36. If there is a Newspoll released tonight (William speculated a fortnight ago that they have moved to a fortnightly schedule) and it shows even a slight move to the LNP, what odds that Morrison will be off to the GG for an election.

    It would also deliver him the candidates he wants in NSW becasue it would force the state branch to fall into line.

  37. WB,

    Any chance you can split off the commentary on the Ukraine situation and other more mundane day to day commentary about local Australian oriented issues.

    I am not suggesting that the Ukraine issue is not important and people should not have the opportunity to express themselves. However, it is overwhelming the blog atm and blunting continuity on any other issue.

  39. We’re just back from a neighbourhood “stroll”. Sweet Rainfall it’s wet out there. Water is rushing down both sides of the street, in places 400mm wide and 100mm deep, or more. You can hear the roar of the storm drains. Where we live a mighty throw could hit the Brisbane river. Luckily we’re on the higher safer side of the street, but for the folks opposite us their choice of river frontage is looking a touch risky right now. The debris laden river is moving very fast.

  40. [‘Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch an invasion of Ukraine sparked global debate about whether Russia should be expelled from a once obscure part of the global banking system, known as SWIFT.

    As Russian forces began their attack, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, made angry calls for Russia to be banned from SWIFT – but world leaders appeared divided. Now they have agreed to act, with the US, Britain and the European Union announcing that “selected” Russian banks would be removed from SWIFT, as part of a new wave of sanctions.

    “We will keep working together to ensure Putin pays the price for his aggression,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

    Those pushing for Russia’s removal from SWIFT have argued it will deal a major economic blow to Russia and its president, Putin. But what exactly is SWIFT, and why is a ban from the network seen as such a serious penalty?

    What is SWIFT?

    The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) is a vital piece of the plumbing that connects the world’s banks. It is a messaging system that allows banks to move money quickly and securely, supporting trillions of dollars in flows of trade and investment.

    Based in Belgium, the company is a co-operative owned by financial institutions from around the world, which was founded in 1973 to replace the telex network (a network of teleprinter machines that sent messages). SWIFT says it connects more than 11,000 banks and other corporations from more than 200 countries.

    Normally, payment infrastructure is one of the most unsexy parts of finance. It’s something few of us notice or care about unless it messes up. However, SWIFT is making news because it could be a powerful financial weapon to use against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/what-is-swift-and-why-does-the-west-fear-cutting-russia-off-from-the-world-s-banks-20220225-p59znv.html

    In an article I posted earlier, it was said that if the Ukrainians could hold out for 10 days, it will cost Russia £150B. Being excluded from SWIFT could be more powerful than the rockets, armaments Putin’s employing to attempt to subdue Ukraine.

    If exclusion from SWIFT, among other measures, was exacted when Putin annexed Crimea, he may’ve had second thoughts about invading Ukraine. And when Putin’s super-yacht slipped out of a German port, ostensibly to avoid its sequestration, this surely should’ve been a red flag to the West of Putin’s intentions; I’m sure it was to Zelenskyy, Russian oligarchs loving their toys.

  43. Apart from the weather, Ukraine is “the” issue! Of course, if there’s a Newspoll tonight this could all change. I’m surprised that dear moderator would even consider considering GG’s request.

  44. Weeks ago I posted this link…

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2021/09/20/everybody-wins-if-australia-gets-new-los-angeles-class-subs-asap/?sh=19fa4fa04a6b

    As the title suggests, its an argument in favour of Australia ‘leasing’ some 3rd tranche Los Angeles class nuclear subs to bridge the capability gap between scheduled decommissioning of the Collins class (beginning early 2030s) and earliest feasible delivery of new (US or British) nuclear subs (2040s.)

    As other posters have noted, there are basically no other options in terms of acquiring nuclear subs in a timely fashion.

    Some posters here seem to have some technical knowledge re submarines. From my amateur perspective, acquiring 4-6 Los Angeles might work in terms of filling a capability gap. One positive is that these subs require much larger crews than Collins, so could be a way to build up a nuclear-trained sub force prior to commissioning 8 new-build subs, which I tend to assume would be more like the British Astute class in needing more crew than Collins, but less than US subs.

    Key question for me: are 3rd tranche Los Angeles subs quiet enough to operate in the South China Sea in the 2030s & 40s?

  45. Mavis

    If exclusion from SWIFT, among other measures, was exacted when Putin annexed Crimea, he may’ve had second thoughts about invading Ukraine.

    ______________________________________

    Exclusion from SWIFT is an incredibly powerful sanction, but implementing it is very painful for the citizens of countries that are part of it, given the complex trading and financial relationships SWIFT has with these countries. If it had been attempted at the time of the Crimea annexation (which was far less violent and more popular in the annexed lands than this invasion) it could not have been sustained politically in the rest of the developed world.

    It really needed something as violent as this, and with such internal opposition as the Ukrainians have put up, to provide popular political support for such an aggressive sanction. When the pain is felt by the general population of the developed world, they will need to be reminded that they, themselves, pushed their leaders to do it.

  47. ”
    Rewisays:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:01 am
    C@tmomma

    Your exhortation to poroti to not criticise the US was very ‘if you’re not with us you’re with the terrorists’.
    ”

    George Bush said”You are either with us or against us “.

    Many of the current arguments of quite a few people on this blog are based on that phrase.

  48. A measure of the disdain I hold for the PM is that I initially believed that this tweet was from him.

    I will comment on the Queensland floods when I am back at work tomorrow— Scott Morrison PM of Australia (parody) (@ScottyFromMktg) February 27, 2022

  49. ”
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:09 am
    “ It was wrong. It’s fundamental premise – the Russia had become a democracy – is wrong. Russia is not democratic. It is a despotic neo-Imperialist kleptocracy.”

    I’m sorry sport, but you are confusing tenses: in my view Keating was right in the 1990s, but the passage of two decades of geopolitical fuck ups has rendered this position no longer viable: at least not until Putin – and his political machine – are dead, buried / cremated.

    For me the obvious tipping point was when Putin conducted his first round of purges of the oligarchs, only to foist a new set in his own image. Any doubts that the ‘jig was up’ regarding Russia as an emerging democracy ended with the poisonings of political enemies and defectors.
    ”

    AE
    What did George Bush said about Putin after Slovenia summit 2001: Bush said, “I looked the man in the eye. I found him very straightforward and trustworthy – I was able to get a sense of his soul.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovenia_Summit_2001#:~:text=However%20he%20warned%20that%20any,the%20man%20in%20the%20eye.

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