It’s been a big couple of days for state opinion polls: a shock Newspoll from South Australia three weeks out from the election, a YouGov poll showing Labor still in front in Queensland, and a Resolve Strategic finding that Labor is back in the game in New South Wales. As well as all that, I can offer the following summary of miscellaneous developments to hang a new open thread off:
• The Age/Herald has related that the small sample of 170 Western Australian respondents from the recent Resolve Strategic poll had 64% supporting Mark McGowan’s decision to scrap the originally proposed date of February 5 for reopening the state’s border, with only 32% opposed. This compares with 39% and 47% respectively from the national sample of 1604.
• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Labor-held marginal seat of Lilley in Brisbane, Ryan Shaw, has announced his withdrawal. Shaw is an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and said he had made the decision to focus on his mental health.
• Lara Alexander will become one of the three Liberal members for Bass in the Tasmanian state parliament after winning the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).
• The Poll Bludger, individually and collectively, was greatly saddened to hear of the death of Zoe Wilson, a.k.a. Lizzie, an unfailingly civil contributor to the forum of long standing, as was related yesterday in comments by Zoomster.
Malcolm Farr
This bloke crashes through to a new public policy low. His government spends millions on pork barrelling and then walks away from disaster relief suggesting someone else pay for it.
Quote Tweet
Peter Dutton
@PeterDutton_MP
· 4h
The water hasn’t gone down yet, and we haven’t seen the full extent of the damage to our community due to catastrophic flooding. We have started a fundraiser to help local residents and businesses who have been affected. https://gofund.me/3aca3c2b
Dandy Murray @ #705 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 12:29 pm
I don’t know it can be quite idyllic.
Snappy Tom at 4:57 pm
They actually were very short on numbers. However Sir Keith Park went for sending all he could at the Germans rather than conserving numbers as would be expected. As the Germans would have expected and certainly some in the RAF. Apparently he reckoned there was no use sending them up in ones or twos as they’ll just get shot down in ones or twos so you may as well send up alot and take some German planes with them.
A_E and Socrates
Re the 18 moth AUKUS ‘consideration’ of nuclear subs – has it even started?
If you were in an (hopefully) incoming Albanese govt, would you…
1) Phone Macron and say ‘Hi, I’m not Scomo. Can we talk about a mix of diesel and nuclear Attack class subs?’
2) Get Aus Sub Corp to design and build at least 4 of an enhanced Collins?
3)…?
As in, HTF do we get out of this mess?
Beguiledagain @ 4.41
You’re correct wrt the appalling coverage of Ukraine on ABC24.
Another oversight in their more general political coverage is the use of video clips without identifying the original date of recording. Poor work.
David Rowe
I’m not in Queensland. I’d love a Queenslander with a megaphone to send the following message to Dutton…
Go
Fund
Yourself
Unfortunately, given his (and his party’s) track record, he’d probably take it literally.
AE at 5.03pm
I would agree with all of that and add one point.
I have been trying to understand why Morrison insisted on so much secrecy on the decision to cancel the Attack contract and look at an SSN alternative. Secrecy over that made no sense, since everyone was bound to find out, and there were only 3 realistic options for the SSN, one of which was France.
My hypothesis was it was for Morrison’s domestic political convenience. It avoided the Senate investigating lots of awkward questions about costs and progress on he Attack Class, because the books were closed. It avoided any domestic debate about nuclear powered subs. Scomo has gotten into trouble in parliament in every session for the past three years. This avoided that entirely.
So I think our PM burnt our relationship with France just to avoid answering questions in Australian domestic politics.
That deserves inquiry, which might also give Labor a reason to extend an olive branch to France. They are still Pacific neighbours and we need to have a healthy defence relationship with them, subs or not.
@ Socrates:
“ As AE and I discussed last night, at this point the situation is so dire that we should build whichever of SSKs or SSNs we can get in the water ASAP. AE thinks we should go back to the French contract but I am not sure if that is politically feasible. Most of the companies involved (sub contractors) have moved on already so we still have to start acquiring sub construction workforce and suppliers virtually from scratch.”
That is my melancholy take on this as well.
“ We will have to build some SSNs. If also building SSKs in the short term and basing them in Darwin helps then OK, but I am concerned we will not save that much time, because we still lack a long range diesel sub design. Attack only got to concept design, not detailed design, so it was still at least two years away from construction. If we have an SSN option with reactor cores available and design completed we might be better off going straight to that. As I said, it is a mess.”
1. It is clear from my reading of the communications between the contracting parties that the gateway passed in June 2021 was not ‘concept design’ but the final detailed design of the Block I – 4 boat build. The following 2-3 years were meant to be spent on completing the training of the workforce and the installation of all the necessary plant and equipment inside the huge new shed at Osborne. Folk have now been laid off, contracts terminated, so I reckon it would take another 12-18 months to get back to where we were in June last year. If Australia threw enough money at the problem we could get sufficiently back on track to cut steel by 2025 or early 2026. But worse still: if we start again, In can see us cutting steel on any other design for another 3-5 years after that.
2. I think we need to commission concurrent builds. If 1-2 build slots per decade can be found in either BAE’s facility in Barrow, Naval’s Cherbourg or Huntington-Inglis yards in America (and I am making an educated guess than only Cherbourg would be able to provide that) then we should contract with said ship builder immediately to start building Aussie SSNs asap while we build Collins replacements first (and then perhaps finish off building the last 3-4 nucs from about 2040 onwards in Adelaide).
3. If however, none of Barrow, Cherbourg or the yanks have extra capacity in a reasonable time, then I think we should probably contract to the Germans (if they have capacity in Kiel, or at one of their foreign satellite yards) to replace the Collins with a proven SSK design whilst we throw huge money at either America, France or UK to train up a whole nuclear industry to start building nuclear subs out of Adelaide this decade. However, i just cant see how we can magic such a workforce – and a whole industry – into existence in anything less than 15 years (meaning 23-25 years before a locally built SSN hit the water).
We gave up emptying the rain gauge some time ago. It wasn’t working. It’s still raining.
Poroti
I don’t agree. RAF Fighter Command had more fighters at the end of the Battle than the beginning. Supply of pilots was keeping pace – just.
Dowding had insisted on keeping reserves in hand. German front line strength looked impressive but their reserves were tiny.
Park was wrongly criticised for sending one or two squadrons to intercept relatively large German formations. He wanted to intercept every raid before it could bomb its target. The tactic told on German morale.
The Germans later nicknamed Park ‘Defender of London.’
Tony Auden
@TonyAuden
·28m
This is now becoming one of the most dangerous weather events I’ve ever seen!
I live not far from base of Mt Glorious which has received 1.1 metres of rain in the last 48hr and we are receiving all the runoff and I can confirm this is just a crazy amount of water. Any still I see people driving through flooded culverts every hour, there is no hoping some folk.
Snappy Tom
“ Re the 18 moth AUKUS ‘consideration’ of nuclear subs – has it even started?”
Yes I understand the Navy now has a team of over 100 working full time on delivery options right now.
Regarding your options, ideally we would add consideration of a French SSN build to the list the working group is assessing. For that the French would need to agree to send us a price.
There are two risks I see:
1. UK and USA might say their deal is off.
2. France might tell us to get… or ask for $10 billion a sub.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:38 pm
‘B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:35 pm
There is a suggestion that the reason so many tanks have “run out of fuel” is a deliberate act by the crews so they don’t have to fight when they find out what they are being asked to do. I have no way for verifying this but it does seem to be a possibility.
I wonder how many Russians have deserted too.’
———————–
A single report by a single Ukrainian side person is insufficient to demonstrate that numerous Russian vehicles have ‘run out of fuel’.
Given the short supply lines, it would have to have been a very grave mistake and atrocious logistics planning by Russia for tank fuel supplies to have run short at this stage. We would need broader confirmation of this by numerous sources.
https://apple.news/A6ts9NrixQ1GLZX-x1g2R7g: “Is international law powerless against Russian aggression in Ukraine? No, but it’s complicated …”
”
Mavissays:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:41 pm
[‘Kyiv comes under huge aerial and artillery bombardment leaving the sky glowing as Russian troops zero in on the capital: Ukrainian resistance to invasion has left Putin ‘raging’ in his mountain lair.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10555871/Kyiv-comes-huge-aerial-artillery-bombardment-leaving-pulsing-glow-sky.html
This is not exactly going the way Putin had anticipated, the invasion apparently costing Russia £15B a day:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10554269/Ukraine-DESTROYS-Russian-convoy-Zelenskys-troops-derail-Kremlin-push-Kyiv.html
”
I will take all this info especially since it is coming from Daily mail with mug of Salt.
So this is a comprehensive clusterAUKUS, which, if presided over by an ALP govt would have seen that govt hounded 24/7 into ignominy and eventual electoral oblivion, but Morrison gets an initial free pass – if not applause – followed by a few articles asking some polite questions?
AUKUS is another example of how the Coalition are a clear and present danger to the national security of this country.
The partnership should be expanded to include, say Germany and France (or any two other countries starting with G and F) and renamed GAUFUKUS.
@ poroti:
“ They actually were very short on numbers. However Sir Keith Park went for sending all he could at the Germans rather than conserving numbers as would be expected.”
That’s actually not correct in two key aspects:
1. Park/Downing’s tactics were to throw no more than 16 fighters (ie. two short staffed squadrons) into the fight at anyone time: if possible (and it was never totally possible) to throw small numbers of spitfires against the numerically superior formations of Bf109s in order to disrupt their close escort duties of the bombers, whilst a squadron of hurricane’s would attempt to shoot down as many german bombers as possible. However, fighters from 11 group were sent in relays to pester the germans all the way to their targets and back out to sea. Deliberately fighting in numerically inferior numbers certainly added to the risks faced by the RAF and accounted for quite a number of combat loses, but it also meant that the germans were constantly hounded ands their day time bombing attacks were largely ineffective. Perfidious 10 Group were meant to protect 11 Group’s airfields, but Mallory and Bader conspired to fuck around with ‘Big Wing’ formation theory, which also cost lives, planes and busted up airfields were they counted most.
2. British production of fighters and supply of fresh pilots never quite fell below losses of existing planes/pilots to the extent that the Luftwaffe could obtain the localised air superiority over Kent and the channel for long enough for an invasion fleet to mount up and sail across. One week in September it was a close run thing, but that localised air superiority would have only lasted 3 days before the RAF regrouped. If in the meantime the Germans had landed they would have been truly fucked. The might of the Royal Navy would have been brought to bear, the rest of the RAF was intact, the germans would have had real and insurmountable logical resupply issues and would likley have to to surrender within 7-10s after D-day.
Pi says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:43 pm
Yeah, really gotta say I’d prefer the ukraine stuff to be somewhere else. Yes, it is a tragedy. Unfortunately tragedies are everywhere. The way the Oz government reacts to it? Fair enough. A fine line, but if there’s one truism about this that I try to follow that helps me retain my sanity, it is the fact that it’s quite literally on the other side of the world.
So true, Ukraine is important but not critical to Australia in general. It’s critical to Morrison however in his attempts to seek re-election but I suspect it’s the economic ramifications that we/he should be focusing on. His job is to focus on that which is critical, not that which is shiny.
Ven it must be going ok, Germany wouldn’t be sending 1000 anti tank missiles if there was no-one to use them.
William Bowe @ #681 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 2:08 pm
I don’t think this is good enough:
___-C@t
Too smart by half.
Not my call though.
And that’s it from me. I’ll be back if BK wants me to do the Dawn Patrol tomorrow.
Hmm, I wonder if all the men that remain here have realised that there’s no more women commenting at the moment and have stopped to ask themselves why?
“ There are two risks I see:
1. UK and USA might say their deal is off.”
I think there is only one risk there: Johnson might get the shits. If anything, the Americans would be relieved: two important allies would be accommodated without the Americans having to divert their already stretched resources. Aussie SSNs would most likely still have heaps of American kit for interoperability (ie. weapons and combat systems – because that was part of the Attack class deal, and is also part of the Collins class boats right now). Win. Win. Win. Except for perfidious Albon. Well, fuck them.
Bludging says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:54 pm
Young Russian conscripts can hardly feel fully enthusiastic about trying to kill their cousins in Ukraine to gratify a corrupt and despotic would-be Stalin. Perhaps they will refuse to fight and another revolution will unfold in Russia.
Morale is such a critical element of warfare. Forces defending their homelands are infinitely harder to defeat and forces fighting without strong moral reason soon flounder, regardless of weaponry (ie: Taliban v Britain, Russia, USA).
re Brisbane Floods: We are now cut off. The roads are flooded. Power, town water and NBN still function.
Stay safe, Late Riser!
A_E
A small nit-pick: the perfidious group in Fighter Command was 12 Group (Leigh-Mallory.) Park had smooth working relationships with 10 Group’s (south west England) Brand and 12 Group’s (Scotland) Saul.
After the Battle, the treacherous Sholto Douglas succeeded Dowding (whose retirement was ‘managed’ abysmally) and perfidious Leigh-Mallory succeeded Park at 12 Group. Neither Dowding nor Park were ‘nice chaps,’ according to some of their superiors.
In 1944, Leigh-Mallory was Air Commander for Overlord. He was the only service chief to recommend delaying the invasion to Eisenhower. Montgomery (Ground) and Ramsay (Sea) recommended proceeding. Thankfully, Ike did not take Leigh-Mallory’s advice.
AE
Thanks I did not know that about the Attack class design progress. That is appalling.
I agree with the composite build idea; that is how the Koreans got started.the Germans built the first two of eight then the Koreans finished the remaining six. The first two could be used as a template.
From what I have read the US are no chance to build boats for us (flat out on USN orders plus huge maintenance backlog and that was before the recent scandal with sub-standard metal supply) so for any immediate build Barrow or Cherbourg are the only options. You can see why Boris wanted the French elbowed out.
I think the need for urgency is sufficient reason for Labor to say to all three – what is the fastest build option? Whoever can do that should be the winner.
Labor must start the workforce training and recruiting ASAP. Plus building up ANSTO and ARPANSA capability. Double their budgets.
It is still the biggest naval contract in the world, so we do have some bargaining power.
Anyone else think that Albo and Zelensky look very similar?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497778526619058178
”
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:41 pm
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:22 pm
….
Well you, along with Boerwar, do seem eager to shutdown attempts to debate outside the USA good, Russia bad binary.’
——————————-
The thing I have been critical of is posters trying to tacitly or directly blame Biden and the US for Putin’s decision to go to war.
”
My point is Biden has moral authority to stand on after his important role (first as Foreign relations chair and then VP) in destruction of Iraq, Libya and Syria leading to destabilisation of Middle East.
Nobody supports what Putin does. He is just emboldened after earlier events.
Like US, Russia has veto in UN Security council. Like US Putin is using his Veto to his advantage. That doesn’t make what he does to Ukraine is right like what US did in Iraq and Libya.
What did George Bush do when US didn’t find WMD in Iraq. He made fun of it in Annual WH Journalists shindig saying where are the WMDs, they are not here while looking under his lecturn.
Agreed.
TPOF:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 4:28 pm
[‘The agreement with France, though, meant nothing.’]
The West generally accords with international agreements; not so the East.
Putin’s testing the water.
Trafford Leigh-Mallory was the younger brother of George, of Everest fame.
Taylormade’s Vic Libs getting whackier by the day…
Thanks Snappy Tom. You are correct in all respects. Interesting about Leigh-Mallory’s advice in 1944: it mirrored the Great meddler – Churchill’s urging. Funny that. He was good at tory politics, was Leigh-Mallory.
”
Mavissays:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:47 pm
Dandy Murray:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 1:36 pm
[‘Stay safe and dry, LR, Asha, Mavis, and other SEQ bludgers. It’s getting hectic out there.’]
Thanks. I’ve lived here for over 20 years and have never seen anything like it. Thankfully, where I live (GC Hinterland) isn’t prone to floods.
https://inqld.com.au/news/2022/02/25/two-dead-and-up-to-600mm-of-rain-but-slow-moving-deluge-yet-to-peak-says-bom/
”
Mavis
Are people saying that they haven’t seen anything like it in their lifetimes? Is BOM hinting that it is a once in 100 year event?
Rex at 5.47pm
Planetshakers?
To quote one of my theology lecturers ‘I’m too angry to speak!’
I’ve posted earlier my view that the loudest so-called Christian voices seem to be the worst. Planetwankers (whoops) is more evidence.
Burwood was the seat of Jeff Kennett.
The Libs lost the middle class and are now beholden to the Pentecostals.
Any predictions for tonight’s newspoll (assuming there is one)?
I’ll say 53-47 ALP
Brisbane’s received 134 mm of rain since 9:00 today, making it a total of over 700 mm (28”) in five and a bit days.
EDIT: That’s approximately equal to Melbourne’s average annual rainfall.
War- france 24 as coverage in english
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNhh-OLzWlE&ab_channel=FRANCE24English
Ch9 just said Mt Glorious has had 1500mm of rain so far during this Eastern Low. That’s 5 foot of rain in about 4-5 days.
Asha @ #770 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 4:42 pm
Thanks Asha. In 2011 water reached the bottom of our driveway. In 1974 it reached the top, but not the house itself. I think we’re OK if we stay inside.
C@tmomma:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 5:37 pm
[‘Hmm, I wonder if all the men that remain here have realised that there’s no more women commenting at the moment and have stopped to ask themselves why?’]
Good question. But do keep commenting, perhaps encouraging others to do likewise, the palpable aggression of some off-putting.
This is the slowest moving low I can remember.
All the best Late Riser.
”
ItzaDreamsays:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 2:06 pm
If not yet posted:
Garry Kasparov speaks with Walter Isaacson: “help Ukraine fight against the monster you helped create.”
https://youtu.be/kYhsloRid_c
”
BW
“the Monster you helped create “.
Can you clarify that?
A_E
Speaking of those who weren’t ‘nice chaps’ – I occasionally wonder about a counterfactual of Bernard Montgomery being appointed to 8th Army about a year earlier than he was. Unlikely – almost no one who counted liked him, he didn’t do small talk. Its just that his professionalism was second to none.
Maybe Axis out of North Africa 6-12 months sooner and some embarrassing British tactical defeats avoided along the way?
Wivenhoe dam at over 170% capactiy… going up fast.
It was at 56% on Thursday.
AE and Snappy Tom
One final comment before I make dinner. If the US are effectively out of the running in the timeframe required (and will get plenty of cash from the combat system and weapons supply anyway) they could be useful in any UK or French SSN build.
The BAE SSN build capability was virtually lost in the 1990s (no work) and had to be rebuilt for the Astute program. At first this was a disaster. The US Electric Boat company was hired in by UK MoD to rebuild expertise at BAE. And they are the best. They taught BAE how to do modular construction for subs.
Why not Labor suggest to Biden that Lockheed Martin get the combat system contract either way, and Electric Boat get a contract to provide engineering expertise in training, shipyard upgrade and SSN project management. So they become a managing contractor over whichever of Naval or BAE wins the build contract. That way someone who knows what they are doing runs the job, not DSTO.
Ven @ #785 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 4:50 pm
We’ve been having a lot of those once in 100 year events in Qld lately